dake50

1. Assume 6xD solid would try penalty. 3D has 1-3 trump losers. Quit. 2. Was 5C to make or with no 4th trick against 4H? Any doubt let opponents have 5-level. My agreements 5C has no 4xDT so 6C. 3. Meta-agree new suit has at least tolerance for partner's overcall. Why in an auction that screams misfit? Show clubs 4. Call my 8-suit trumps. 4S hoping partner has 4 working cards of 5:SK, HKQ, CAH/AQ/KQ if he ups 5. 4C if it denies H-interest (as no T/O X) 6. No negX, no raise, no C-bid, no NT earlier from partner. Hope he heard my minimum pass.

6D on this auction is almost free. Opponents take the bounce sac way often so 6D only needs about 35% to make. Why would they 5D on 65% when 6D has 35% make + 70% sac?

benlessard right. Pick your tactic. At least then partner is clued for auction AND defense. That makes the final decision a partnership decision when not unilateral sacrifice.

I'm guessing 4H on 70% 5D cheap 70% So 70% x 70% = 49% for sac. Am I about right?

benlessard nailed this one. Romex did have scan -SUPER concept. Should be common expert practice Controls w hcp for NT-ladder -SUPER concept. Extend to any auction should have controls promise, not hcp. Win With Romex an excellent read for those concepts (missed Geo.R later books), not for Romex system.

6-5 is rare enough to be an exception for fit jump. The fear is partner doubles above 5D - not likely winning as he expects real defense tricks. And the short quacks fall for them. Don't miss H-KQx/Kxx/ fit is paramount.

Maybe 1N warning partner off 4xH coming in. But what is my partnership reoping scheme? Can I handle this for 3m maybe 4m?

Why am I bidding? Won't partner reopen if there is game or even a good partial for us? 2xQ in doubletons and length in the opened suit and flat (not exciting) 2245. I much prefer defense surprise if they get frisky.

Having seen DD-sims to get at the 'best' honor evaluator - not 4321! Why is the shown evaluation A =3.87; K =3.14; Q =1.53; J =0.62 (just for talking purposes) not used? Processing time? Cannot imagine even 0.3% for using decimal values. Why 'garbage' in trying to get not garbage out? Surely the accuracy is questionable so only gross results are trustful. Concretely, when 16 of 1NT 15-17 should accept an invite. Sims using 4321 have to be inaccureate so how fine can anything suggested by that sim be advised? 3%? 1.4%? Or only >10%?

Does H-xx count as a 2nd flaw when 5xS opens 1NT? Thus putting 1NT if 5xS has H-KJx or similar? Pass then seems best with expected H-waste. Or would any 5332 with 5xS in 14-16hcp open 1NT? Now pure ambiguity.

Meta-agree slam tries are ON. Just best guess M-game. 2NT preempt MAY scramble us into 4M, never into bad 6M. I like X->C-A,KQ fragment; 3C ->D-frag; 3D ->H and 3H ->S with cue m-short next if 3M accepted. Mild slam interest if partner cooperates. This frees 4m/4M for clear slam tries: immediate 4m m-single/void and slammy H. 4M slammy with C-control, missing D-control. Slammy S starts 3S hoping m-cue. 5-5MM xfers one bids 2nd.

I hope partner quits with 11-13. So we have 9+14, I try 2N.

1. 5C with 4xC fit. 2. Strong Notrump After Pass, SNAP makes 3C GF. Still GF after 2NT =max pass. 3. Overcall Structure uses 2NT>1C as H+2nd with 7 losers. This hand fits that. Without OS, fearing their spades, 1H and fight this one out: H+D vs. S+C likely.

I use 2m for 5+m without 4x good M to keep auctions 'pure' looking for 5-3M fit or M-stops. Each 5+minor rates minimal opener. 5S+4H is way good. Open these even on average 10s. Of course minimum rebids are signoff -must be respected even in overruling.

Let me guess. You reopen 2H, then 3C by overcaller to 5C which just fails? Or they play a 6-2 4S with side club suit which just fails as partner has CK +HA +S10 +DK? Wa-a-aay too small to hope for.

Would 2S let partner show 3C =C-stuff so you don't go? MP prefer in 4S marginally. Needs no D-ruff +C-wins or SK or SQ on. IMP need to bid 4S Vul -that I would criticize partner for rejecting any try with max single raise esp HKQ knowing those will be liked.

What did partner show by passing the 1S artificial raise? No S-fit? That X would suggest 3xS and not forward going, or is neg-X still on verses artificial bids?. He did not 2H to find that fit, nor 2C over 1S for 'pick a suit'. Did he hear me?! Doubled twice!! I think X 3rd is just obstinate. Unless T/O dbl on 11, repeat T/O double on 12, now I'm more than that(sarcasm).

Does 2D promise more than D-Qxx? Won't partner bid on with 0-2xD? Then 2S.

Will 6C need a H-ruff to establish 5th H? Try C-x.

Do I have a Western cue of 3C? I rather like that as I'm forcing to 4S on this hand and want partner to know he must control clubs if higher. My partnership has already shown (last round) good controls raise as opposed to TotalNumberTricks,TNT.

Is the top of 1D at 15hcp? Then why respond 1NT =no 4+M with 6-9? Game must be far off, so just begging for invite rebids to be muddled. Is there preempt 1-level intended on those 6-9? Start 1NT to 1D at 10.

Similar to Cascade, old chart. Notice the obstructive value in third seat: 4-seat after three passes AVERAGES 15 hcp! Obstruction is waaay to often ignored. What is the value of mini-NT taking 1-level away? Does opponents game-partial decision accuracy go down? How much? Enough to balance penalty disasters? I think YES. HCP\% by seat: previous seats opened by rule of 20. Last column if rule of 19 3-seat. 1-seat calculated, simulation rest. 1-seat 2-seat 3-seat 4-seat 4if 3wRuleof19 10.00hcp 10.85hcp 12.18hcp 14.72hcp 15.20hcp avg 0 0.36390 0.1836 0.0461 -- -- 1 0.78844 0.4376 0.1296 -- -- 2 1.35612 0.8160 0.2921 -- -- 3 2.46236 1.5955 0.6548 -- -- 4 3.84544 2.6702 1.2603 0.0036 0.0002 5 5.18619 3.8514 2.0780 0.0244 0.0042 Sum0-5 14.00245 9.5543 4.4609 0.028 0.0044 6 6.55410 5.1854 3.1909 0.1428 0.0425 7 8.02809 6.7909 4.6620 0.5232 0.2227 8 8.89219 7.9726 6.0817 1.3814 0.7762 9 9.35623 8.9188 7.5014 2.8356 1.8407 10 9.40511 9.4352 8.7345 4.8932 3.6540 11 8.94468 9.4158 9.5244 7.2309 6.0546 sum6-11 51.18040 47.7188 39.6949 17.0071 12.5907 12 8.02687 8.8816 9.7374 9.4149 8.5070 13 6.91433 8.0119 9.4431 11.0059 10.5347 14 5.69332 6.8862 8.6968 11.7888 11.8666 15 4.42368 5.5606 7.4542 11.4838 11.9597 sum12-15 25.0582 29.3403 35.3315 43.6934 42.8680 16 3.31092 4.3177 6.1438 10.3759 11.2121 17 2.36169 3.1826 4.7367 8.7604 9.7109 sum16-17 5.67261 7.5003 10.8805 19.1363 20.9230 18 1.60508 2.2363 3.5064 6.8304 7.7863 19 1.03617 1.4846 2.3929 4.9613 5.7881 20 0.64354 0.9411 1.5814 3.4009 4.0401 21 0.37787 0.5680 0.9730 2.1848 2.6064 22 0.21004 0.3203 0.5682 1.3081 1.6044 23 0.11190 0.1728 0.3107 0.7321 0.9061 24 0.05590 0.0896 0.1635 0.3857 0.4721 25 0.02643 0.0428 0.0770 0.1832 0.2325 26 0.01167 0.0193 0.0369 0.0904 0.1060 27 0.00491 0.0085 0.0142 0.0383 0.0465 28 0.00186 0.0029 0.0053 0.0124 0.0149 29 0.00067 0.0009 0.0017 0.0043 0.0081 sum30+ 0.00030 0.0005 0.0009 0.0019 0.0026 sum18+ 4.08644 5.8876 9.6321 20.1338 23.6141

I like kenrexford evaluation. Two body cards to get back to evens hcp-count (after all 4333 has no source of tricks). Third body card invites.

How about S10 DK onside and CQ onside? More imponderables.

Blast 4S. Take my medicine for this view if it fails.