dake50
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Everything posted by dake50
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Lucky Clubs are 2-6 and thus dis-entried. What plan works if Clubs are 3-5?
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1S. Hope partner clues me in to 4S sac against 4H or not. With only DK + S-2nd in defense, that's what I project.
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I'm insisting my 8xH be trump. Having Kxx in partner's bid plus single-single, my fear is missing 6H. I'll start 3D transferring to Hearts, then 4C to alert partner I'm looking up. Hope he has DAQ and sees CA with HAK is gold. Maybe even HAx/Kx/QJx.
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Nothing wrong with 3NT as the general rebid. But is 6D worth exploring? I have self-splinter 4H. At worst directing opponents defense to 4NT.
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Would 4D instead of 3H have shown a D-control with a GF-raise? I much prefer that start. Now it's a guess about C-control as partner's 5S should be close to enough tricks. I think no forcing pass denies 2XA, so the easy slam is off. I'm sure double scores poorly, as it's a posted problem. I choose double anyway.
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As I play a weak MAFIA system, this hand is DA above minimum. But partner's 2S is not a 'good' 9 - having other bids to show a constructive raise. Clear pass on this semi-bal 14. Partner is still there.
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Hate this outcome. They would go 4H. RHO has S-Kx. We win SQA. They finesse into my HQ. Partner wins a trick in the wash: 4H-1. Nope! 3S-X-2 =-500. Am I overestimating this case?? Either 4xH = surprise! or 1xH = 1-loser looks better. H-Qx would win a H-trick - like that when they have 8+ Hearts. 3xH looks like they have only 7x Hearts - they won't misbid to 4H. They guess 7xS 0-1xD 1-3xH 1-3xC in defending. Little chance they get untracked. I see little chance opponents Misbid or Underbid after 3S. Risk of penalty for their overbid?? That's the comparison that's left.
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Is the goal of such a system is avoiding leaking information when there is no slam prospect or there is another reason for this ? *** Exactly! Listing methods is *NOT ANALYSIS*!! Give some reasoning. Some why is this hand type handled better by this method at what cost to what other hands handled worse/different.
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FANTUNES REVEALED by Bill Jacobs
dake50 replied to PrecisionL's topic in Non-Natural System Discussion
Coming to bridge from poker, expert at reading 'tells'. So I want a 'table feel' system. Coming to bridge from progamming, expert at decision trees. So I want a 'clear boundary' system. Which results are 'system' and then which are 'my skill'? Has Jacobs determined which aptitudes Fantunes start with to separate *system* from *skill* ?? -
Slam try after ask minors must have 3+ controls of CA,DK,SK.
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May I have a T/O Dbl to joke on this hand? What is the downside?
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What do you think of taking 5H-4S hands out of T/O Dbl? Using instead a MM (akin to Michaels but 4-5) call? The painful auction is Overcall 1H then guess to Dbl 4x spades back into the auction. Separate that (eg. Raptor). Overcalling 1S then showing 2H ain't 5-5 as Michaels wasn't chosen, so 5-4 even 6-4. Unlikely to be shut out as S-prefer is asked. Where's the need for ELC?
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Slam Bidding in Strong Club Systems
dake50 replied to PrecisionL's topic in Non-Natural System Discussion
Instead of 4-3-2 AKQ, use 5-3-1 for AKQ. Only Jacks in "our" suits are counted. -
Adjustment period/ appeals period ends by conditions of contest. My most frequent period is 30 min. after last board played. Isn't this covered by that? Determine if this is a curiosity question to admire opponents methods - that may be delaying the current board. Or really think mis-/un- informed may have occurred.
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Expect partner to have red A + D-QJ + S-K-5th? Nope.! He could have shown useful stuff. He's still there. Even 5S isn't sure. I want 5S in front of partner to ask 6S with that much outside of clubs. I would, conversely, consider blasting 6S hoping they often 7C sac right or wrong - an interesting gamble to keep opponents unsure on other auctions.
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Exactly.! Some "other than *law*" reasons which you listed.
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They've bid 3H. I think 18 trumps so I bid 3S. RHO also thinks 18 that may be 8 for Spades 10 for Hearts so 4H. Now partner also thinking 18 maybe 10-8 bids 4S. Now LHO agrees 4S may make so 5H is cheap. So this decision was REALLY bid to 5H-X. Was some "law" reasoning wrong??
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Does NAP district qualifier weed out the field enough to "go with the field"? Is that field voided of rabbits - surely compared to a club game some filtering has occurred.
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I guess SA intended a S-ruff. Yet we need another trick. I try C4.
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FANTUNES REVEALED by Bill Jacobs
dake50 replied to PrecisionL's topic in Non-Natural System Discussion
Anyway, Bill Jacobs' analysis is a reasonable attempt to quantify the FANTUNES System. Doubters, can do their own analysis of the BBO vu-graph files and present their findings. *** What reason is purported for this anecdotal comparison? Has it statistical validity? I see none, nor none claimed. Thus it is presented as a curiosity, NOTHING MORE! Doubter's merely claim a peer review of "no basis". To suggest that this comparison is valid BECAUSE doubters have not done a disproving analysis is backward to any science. The publisher has the burden of proof! -
I want partner to expect 4th from longest/strongest. Don't have a reason to deviate.
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My partner already opened his 4+H with 10 points. That's about it for our game chances. 3D scoring better than 3C-X? Doubt it. I Double. Partner may cringe and scramble, but this is highly likely our shot for a big score with no game likely. Some just to not be UNANIMOUS.
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Didn't find 1S in this poll. That likely caters to they own this hand. I will be doubled in 3D,4D,5D. Danged when partner doesn't take this joke.
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Does 2S - - 2NT show a real S-stop and 14? East didn't do that, West should 4C not pass. 5C on H8 +DJ squeeze. Surely not a bad game esp at IMP.
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In a similar vein, Thomas Bessis held this against Team Denmark: Perhaps more want to double with this hand? *** S:KJ2 H:AK10943 D:AK C:42 "Partner, game with a useful 7": CA +any or HQ+SQ or 4xH +DQ even though those are way less than 7 but useful. Start double. No fear to rebid 3H, even 4H. Double 5C.
