dake50

If partner has x Kx AKxxx KQxxx he would not bid 3NT. *** He would 3H > 3D, and we're going up. If partner has x xx AKxxx KQxxx slam needs the spade finesse plus clubs 3-2 (minus singleton ace of clubs) *** Unless C:K*9*xxx, now on a S-finesse? I don't see any 55% slam opposite a 3NT bid. *** Trying ain't the same as bidding a 55% slam. Here 5D rates to be reasonable (maybe better than 3Nt), so the try is quittable at a good 5D contract.

4S gets them sacrificing 5D; whereas 5C will be left to play. Both risk partner's hearts confusing this auction; both lose other black fit. I'm trying 5C. Great offense, I want to play 5C. Don't know if, nor how we can knowingly get to 6C/6S.

Doesn't D:AKxxx + C:KQxxx put us on a SQ finesse for 6D? Would partner get slam-uppity with HK added? Now it's on only losing CA. Do y'all not chase for 55% slams?

Link please (unless it's pay to use material). Edit -- link below: http://www.marvinfrench.com/p1/defensehandbook/alldefense.pdf *** Yes of course, I have my own edited and annotted copy. Did not think to post a link, I shall now on.

I would pass. Let me propose an alternative question. I am not up to running a simulation today, but I did do a very quick bridgebrowser check for 2NT-P-3D-P-3NT where the 2NT bidder had a 4432 with specifically AK doubleton in hearts and responder was balanced or semi-balanced with exactly five hearts. Passing 3NT was the clear winner at both matchpoints and imps. I did not examine the hands, just average results.. no double dummy play was studied... just how people faired. The sample size was small, 77 deals -- each deal played 16 times (a total of 1136 different auctions). In this study, the scores for 3NT and 4♥ are shown. Of course, other people reached different contracts on the same hands... slams, partscores, even other suits. 3NT was a clear winner, averaging in this LIMITED study +1.46 imps, and 54.2% matchpoints. 4H averaged +0.26 imps and 44.7% matchpoints. The sample size is too small, plus, with no constraints but the auction, a lot of people way overbid either not stopping lower when they should or going too high. In fact, less than 1/2 the auctions ended in either 3NT or 4♥, so it is not clear how useful this is. I did look at 2N-3h-3S-bid game and it followed the same trend and the same preference for 3NT to be right. **** Did you correct for SA+CA+HAK+DKQJx = 8 controls? The very point of correcting to 4H is the tops/controls. Why sim POOR(3,4) controls???? Instead or 8 controls??

Have a look at Marvin French's discussion, Marvin vs. Journalist. alldefense.pdf has his scheme with pretty good why's/wherefor's.

Won't partner make better decisions here than MY GUESS? I've shown 6-12, having 9 with HAQ over them. I evaluate a good 9, not a near 12 for a 2Nt bid. I can pass and let partner get many of these auctions correct. And take my lumps when he also can only guess.

Partner didn't negX. If he has a Major, he has only 5 points. If X can escape 2H to 2Nt, that seems ok. However, I fear any act awakens opponents to their 4H fit.

Sounds like 10 tricks. Winning partner's big cards: opened AND rebid 1Nt. Plus dummy reversal (C-ruffs by Yarb) or crossruff. I'm trying 4H. My guess is -200 is most likely; BUT +790 is not a rarity.

What would suggest 6S if partner has 5x good spades for his double? Does Forcing pass suggest 6S or only 7D is on the table for consideration?

5xD +5xC +SA+HA looks the minimum I'd expect from this hand. Try 4c over 3Nt, if that shows the double fit, OR invites partner to 4D asking D-keys, even 4D IF that asks keys.

Agree 1D-1H-, 3H should suggest spades short. Both as an attempt to play 3H verses 2S and to help partner discount spade quacks/promote minors. Add a tier to Drury for showing shortness. If opener is not sub-minimum, he rebids his short to help discover duplication or minimum points all working. If Drury-bidder next shows his short opener sees that duplication or all working borderline decision.

MrAce This was the full deal. Of course it doesn't prove anything but bidders would win this hand. Pass would probably lead to either +50 -110/130 in 3♣, or +50 in 4♥ When i first posted this, results of poll surprised me, it was overwhelmingly in favour of 3♠ and i thought this was not such a clear decision. Now i see passers caught and passed bidders. Fwiw, i bid 3♠ at the table, but definetely not advocating that it is correct to do so. *** Now reopeners, do you try 3S after (3C) P (P) ?? or (3C) P (3H) ?? I would every time, with that shape and a passed hand (can't get partner excited). Hoping a couple H-ruffs + a couple tricks from partner. And knowing nothing in 3C hand during the play.

Was North ever to show 4 to J support? I think 5C stands out with this poor defense holding.

I think it's close. If we have game, partner will have enough to keep it open most of the time. -- helene_t *** Exactly. Why bid if partner is reasonably likely to reopen to get us to 3S (where I want to play). Of course WEASEL gets this right always: hesitate-3S to play; fast-3S to invite.

I'd have upgraded to show 22 points, although K&R says I'm wrong, otherwise I'm happy. *** Rosenkrantz had upgrades for more than expected controls. 2Nt expects 5 controls; having 8, I'd start 2C. How can partner envision slam even with DA + K+ K? He expects we are at 8-9 controls, NOT 12! Not only would I get to 4H, but I must Q-bid 4C on the way.

I'm not sure this proves anything. I had the pleasure of putting down dummy in 5♣ and watching them start with three rounds of hearts. 6♣ or 6NT makes from my side. Partner's double may be questionable but I thought it was ok. *** About as bad spade honors opposite SA single as I could imagine. Still over 4Nt, 5H = you pick the slam gets 6C (although I try 6Nt).

In was going to write something along the same lines as Andy. You seem to get just what you want by playing 2NT=♣; 3♣=♦; 3♦ = 3 card limit+; 3♥ = 4 card limit+. Or reverse the last 2 steps if you prefer. If you really want that natural 2NT then I suppose another alternative would be to rope double into the transfers, so that X = clubs or (semi-)balanced without heart stop and 2NT = natural. Agree Zelandakh. Use transfers as he suggests. X-> clubs or exploring. Transfer Raise + Q-bid then support to distinguish slammy myself or good if partner may be slammy. I like transfers in competition mostly for just these auctions. WE DISCUSS TRANSFERS, THEN OUR BIDS ARE ALWAYS CLEAR.

And of course a) Partner has the SK b) Partner has no more than 5 spades, even though he is probably void in clubs. c) The remaining spades are divided 3-3 in spite of opponents vigorous bidding. Dream on. Rainer Herrmann *** Of course! Partner won't have DAK, nor CA, nor SK, on and on. Quite pessimistic.

Slam fails 45%. Slam on 55%. I'll try slam.

SA, to SK, S-ruff. HQ out, expecting another 1,2 tricks. Double.

KQxx xx AKxx KJx 4H? Jxxx x AKxx AKxx 6m?

My vul partner isn't bonkers and I suspect we have the values for slam, but I am not at all sure it will be any walk in the park played from partners side. I like to imagine the worst hand partner would say dble and I am willing to assume we do not have 2 heart losers, but it is not clear about a possible minor suit loser facing wasted spade values. I may regret my choice, but I will take the low road with 4N and pass 5 of a minor. Sorry if I misjudged partner. -- mcphee *** How much more would you need to try 6m/6Nt? Add DK? CJ10? HA instead of HKx? 5m is awful tame with 5 controls 13 and 5-5.

How will double avoid 3-4 M-fit in 4M? 3Nt at least warns partner to have a good Major for 4M. And it's a reasonable spot to play. Hope partner has something near a useful 10.

Not that XX = 10pts doesn't come up, BUT that transfers force once. Thus transferer's rebid can/may show 10+. XX is now wasted/duplicated by the transfer then 'show stuff' rebid. The systemic(Xfer scheme) challenge is to find a good meaning for that XX.