PhantomSac

Yeah cuz its sweet if partner plays it

Tempted to read this thread to see what the fuss is about but I'm guessing the good parts were deleted

Sure, having a rebid problem is a good reason (and arguably the only reason) to misdescribe your hand early in the auction, sometimes there is no way to show your hand (4441 very strong hands being the obvious example), and sometimes describing your strength or shape wrong is a better way to get to the best spot/get all your suits in w/e. It is just a mentality thing and they all lead to the same conclusions but a problem I see many non experts having, especially those who read a lot/have a lot of knowledge, is that they get too fancy early in the auction. There are times to open 1N with a stiff (I think opening 1N with K AQJx QJxx QJxxx would be a majority action), there are maybe times to not open 2C with 23 HCP, etc, but people should have a very concrete reason for doing so, there is a reason that with 22+ it is recommended to open 2C, and with stiffs to not show balanced hands. Those are normal because on a vast majority of the hands it is the percentage thing to do. On this hand I just see no reason to consider distorting my hand, showing 22+ then showing 5+ spades is a perfectly fine description and comes with no rebid problems. Is it possible that over 2C 2D 2S my partner will bid 3H and I will bid 3N and my partner will pass and we can make 6C? Absolutely, but that is not enough of a reason to go against well established normal bids. More likely is we miss a game or a slam when I open 1S because I am too strong to open 1S. Obviously this does not apply to you personally but I think a good habit to get into for people who want to get better is to make normal bids early in the auction unless they have a very concrete reason to deviate.

Haha, yeah definitely this. My thought process would be "2C, cuz I have 23" followed by "2S because I have 5+ spades and my hand is unbalanced" I don't see a reason to distort this hand by either opening 1S with 23 or showing a balanced hand with 5134 by rebidding 2N

Yeah, these pros spend a lot of time discussing various sequences with the bots which give them an edge in situations like this.

Yeah this is quite the philosophical dilemma!

What does a reply of "I have no idea" to "why does it not make if clubs are 4-4" mean to you lol. I don't know why I thought it didn't make if clubs are 4-4, I was out to lunch sorry.

Since it's a robot tournament it's a pretty pure problem, everyone else will face the same scenario. Likely it won't matter whether you X or pass compared to the 5H bidders, if 5H is down both will beat that score, and if 5H makes both will probably lose to that score (unless you can get 800 vs 5D but that is very unlikely so lets disregard that). In that case only the doublers and the passers are competing with each other, so if you think you are beating them more than 50 % of the time you should double from a pure matchpoint EV standpoint. I am guessing you did not rate your defensive prospects well as you attempted to save (with an upshot of maybe making on a really good day), but that seems pessimistic. I think you just overlooked that your partner the preemptor will have defensive help for you, they don't have QJ of hearts and out. When you combine that with your holdings I think you should be more optimistic about your chances of beating them.

You are a massive underdog to make 5H, I don't understand bidding that. You are basically hoping for partner to be 7-4 and you still might not be making 5H in that case. You are a favorite to beat them. Your AK Of hearts is not worthless, it will take a trick more than half the time. Your ace of clubs is a trick. Partner has opened a vulnerable preempt without the A or K of hearts so he will have a side card. That will combine well with your SQT or CJ for another trick. Even with nothing in clubs your CJ might be a trick (especially if he has the ten). If it is a best hand robot tourney then you know RHO has at most 13 HCP also which matters a little bit (but not a huge amount). Everybody will be in the same position and since you're in my estimate a pretty big favorite (but by no means guaranteed) to beat them, X seems better than pass. The bots are also usually too aggressive in these situations.

I have no idea lol

Another person who does not play keycard? JFC.

Do you not play keycard?

Yes very difficult to stop short of slam opposite 2 keycards.

lol

In real life unless we showed a club void during the bidding how could RHO duck the ace of clubs? Surely if we take this line and they play low on the club K we should revert to ruffing it and playing a diamond. A heads up LHO will put in the K or the Q from Hx but sometimes they will have Hxx and we'll be alright (and depending on the opps often they won't put in an H from Hx). I think this is a superior line to playing a diamond at trick 2 since I will make when RHO has the CA.

The problem is if the CA is offside you won't get 2 club tricks, LHO will win and return a diamond and you are finished even on 4-4 clubs.

That would be too obvious. A superior way to do it would be to let the score end up tied, not try to score on your last possession, win the flip in OT, choose to kick, then instruct your defense to allow the opponents to score. O_o

I'm sure I would start 1H 2D 2S and have a pretty sad auction from there.

trump

Yeah bidding 2H is terrible

Agreed, at imps I think you have to strip it and then make a decision. There's not much need to plan ahead of time for what heart guess you'll make, by then you'll have more info (RHO's signal at trick 1, LHOs pitch on the spade, what happens in clubs, etc). Generally speaking I am not playing LHO for 1-1-5-6, they might have bid more and they might have led a heart. Conversely if they show up with 6 diamonds I will obviously play them to have 5 clubs so I will play them for 1-1-6-5. But I might change my mind, we can cross that road when we get there.

Partner is doubling most of the time with 5-5 and a good hand I think esp at this vul (eg x AKxxx KQxxx xx given earlier seems like a double?). It seems like he will often be 6-5. It's a very weird problem but the options are 6D or pass, not 5H or pass. Normally with 0553 partner would bid 4N if they didn't have enough defense to X, but I think with nebulous club that doesn't really work. Not sure what I'd do.

6D is not that far off when partner has a 3 card LR + a diamond fit but I wouldn't go for it.

Just 3D IMO

clee was over 2600 with like a 10k hand sample iirc (I am more amazed he played so many hands on BBO than with his score honestly lol). Anyways I agree with you that it is far more accurate than self ratings.