I don't think that's a valid aet of sims for determining this. How do we do in ♥ when responder's ♥ are 2 or more cards longer than spades? Or better yet, do this: Generate 5000 random responder hands If responder holds 4 good, or any 5 clubs defend 3♣ X Otherwise we play in responders longest suit, with ♥ rather than ♦ when equal length. That will come close to telling us how X does. I'm sure ♥ is worse than ♠ on random hands, but how about when responder actually has ♥?