joshs

[hv=d=e&v=n&s=sq542hqt97dt754cx]133|100|Scoring: IMP[/hv] Playing Light Opening bids (most ten counts 1/2 seat white) RHO passes, you pass, LHO opens 3C, partner xes, RHO bids 3N A. what do you bid? B. if you choose to pass here, the auction continues: P by you, P by the 3C bidder-x from partner-4C from the 3N bidder (suprise suprise)-? Now what? C. If you chose to pass again, the auction continues, P by you, P by the 3C bidder, x from partner, P from RHO, Now What?

North has no idea west psyched, and there is nothing he can do about that. South made a strange bid at his second turn. After making a takeout x, if you next bid one of the other 3 suits, its natural and strong, even if by chance your LHO bid it before you did. The Auction Should go: 1H-x-1S-1N(This hand is too good for a 2C bid, so the choice is 1N or 3C) P-2S-P-3C P-? Now the choices are: 3S, 3N, 4S I don't really like 3S, although I do think its forcing (since the player xed when he could have overcalled spades, and obviously has 6+S, so not a 5044 hand, he must have a hand to good for a 1S overcall. This plus the 8-10ish promised by the 1N bid is clearly enough for game. The reason I don't like 3S, is that it doesn't really express the strength of the suit. 4S is a better description of the power of the hand/suit. Getting to the spade slam is still tricky. The only way I can see getting to the spade slam is: 1H-x-1S-3C P-4S(3S would have been forcing)-P-5S P-6S-All Pass This is assuming that 4S is natural and a strong suit and not a splinter for clubs...I think it should be natural and a very strong suit, but thats partially since you need an absolute moose to x 1H for takeout holding a singleton spade, so the splinter hand is even rarer than the actual hand. But I would not try this bid undiscussed.... If instead it goes: 1H-x-1S-3C P-3S-P-3N P-4S-P-? North will have no idea that south's suit is solid, so its hard to make another bid here. Actually, After 1H-x-1S-1N-P I think south should bid 3S, showing the strong suit and the great hand immediately (2S would have been forcing, so 3S shows a powerful suit)

North has no idea west psyched, and there is nothing he can do about that. South made a strange bid at his second turn. After making a takeout x, if you next bid one of the other 3 suits, its natural and strong, even if by chance your LHO bid it before you did. The Auction Should go: 1H-x-1S-1N(This hand is too good for a 2C bid, so the choice is 1N or 3C) P-2S-P-3C P-? Now the choices are: 3S, 3N, 4S I don't really like 3S, although I do think its forcing (since the player xed when he could have overcalled spades, and obviously has 6+S, so not a 5044 hand, he must have a hand to good for a 1S overcall. This plus the 8-10ish promised by the 1N bid is clearly enough for game. The reason I don't like 3S, is that it doesn't really express the strength of the suit. 4S is a better description of the power of the hand/suit. Getting to the spade slam is still tricky. The only way I can see getting to the spade slam is: 1H-x-1S-3C P-4S(3S would have been forcing)-P-5S P-6S-All Pass This is assuming that 4S is natural and a strong suit and not a splinter for clubs...I think it should be natural and a very strong suit, but thats partially since you need an absolute moose to x 1H for takeout holding a singleton spade, so the splinter hand is even rarer than the actual hand. But I would not try this bid undiscussed.... If instead it goes: 1H-x-1S-3C P-3S-P-3N P-4S-P-? North will have no idea that south's suit is solid, so its hard to make another bid here.

Wow. I might have upgraded south's hand to an 18 count despite the 4333 shape (its close), but north's hand is not close to good enough to invite (its a clear pass of 1N), and yes 3D means what you think it means, assuming the x showed diamonds...

I would bid 3H (barely). I believe strongly in bidding agressively with singletons in the opponents suit, and to give partner slack when he appears to have shortness in the opps suit.... Switch the diamonds and the spades, and I would pass 2S.

Hmm, I am still trying to process south's pass over 1C. It has to be correct to bid some number of hearts (I am not a bid fan of 2N with longer and stronger hearts). I am eclectic and have been known to bid 3H on this hand type but 1H or 2H is probably the normal bid at this vul. Having passed he is screwed, but I can't see my self taking another call under any circumstances at any form of scoring with the north hand....

The auction was fine through 3C. Taking them out of there 7 card fit is risky, and is especially risky since spades are likely 5-1 (from the pass of 2H holding at most 3 hearts), but the club suit is very strong and you are NV. Unluckily, they found a diamond fit next. At this point you have to hope that you have described your hand well enough to partner that he can make a good decision (you have shown a 6 card club suit and a min). Parter said, opposite that, the best you can do is defend 3D undoubled. I am not sure what additional information you have that can possibly justify overruling him.

Exactly how many mps would you have gotten for 3N undoubled making 5? Assuming that 2S showed 4 cards, then you know that the opps are not in a field contract, and suspect that they are better off in that cotract than the normal one. In this situation, it is sometimes right to make a tactical x, hoping to chase them back into there major suit fit.... Anyway, the 2D bid was light, especially red. Its not a rediculous bid, but it is dangerous if your partnership doesn't allow light bids with extreme shortness in the opps suit in this position. Personally, give south both minor suit ten's also and I would have bid 2D. As it is, its slightly below what I am willing to bid on. So I actually have sympathy for both players actions. North expected a slightly better hand/suit from south (the opps did bid up to 3N so they should have close to enough points), and you want to scare the opps out of 3N. If east didn't xx, it probably would have worked. (P.S. have your partnerships discussed what this xx means? Many play it as "I am really not sure about this partner....")

If the auction goes: 1N-2C-P-P bid-2S Or 1N-2C-bid-P P-2S I would expect 5S and 4/5C playing dont. If you start with a x: 1N-x-P-2C P-P-bid and later bid spades you will have shown your hand, but its much more likely that the auction goes: 1N-x-bid or 1N-x-P-2C bid In which case you can't show your hand at all (you have to bid 3C next to show the 6 card suit, and that shows clubs and a better hand then you have, so you would have to pass) Now in dont, there are two ways of showing spades: 2s Direct x then 2S Traditionally these are used to differentiate a stronger and weaker 2S bid (although there is little agreement as to which sequence should be stronger). But it might be better to use one of these sequences for another purpose (like 4S and a 6 card minor). But thats not a normal agreement...

Note: In theory, players who are worse at declarer play should not bid game as agressively, so if you interprete "there are 9.5-11.5 tricks available" as on average given the declarers playing skill, then a. good players would bid game more than bad players b. they would have the same overall probability of making a game that they bid So the gain from being a good declarer is that you get to bid game more... Of course, bad players don't really bid game that much less agressively than good players...

Oh I am not doing the "How will actual results vary" calculation. I am attempting the "how many tricks are there under best play" calculation. I would definitely need to introduce a variance in declarer play to the caluculation as well for the actual number of tricks.

I love all conventions, when my opponents play them. :P

I don't know if a. my estimate for the mean number of tricks is right b. how good an approximation is the independance approximation. Its certainly not true... I did figure that this should give us a ballpark number assuming a is approximently right.

Uh, what did you expect -- mention DONT and not have people suggest alternatives? I think you should expect these kinds of responses. Its the same as with those threads that deal with regulations -- they all turn into the same old discussion in no time (I'm not saying that I don't find them interesting over and over again ;-). I've got another question regarding defense against weak NTs that fits into the context (well, remotely so :-), so I'm taking the opportunity: Usually you'll play X against weak NT as penalties/card showing, e.g. 14/15+ any against a 12-14 NT. Now what I'm interested in is how your partnership handles making the distinction between defending doubled or bidding into a contract of your own (presumably a game in this case). Do you have forcing passes after such a double and unlimited partner bidding something? Lately I was in an auction where LHO opened a vulnerable 12-14 NT, p doubled in direct seat and they wound up in 2♣ undoubled, going down once for +100. We had a 3♦ partscore for +110 at least. This being a pairs event we got a zero. Penalizing them in 2♣ would have brought us a top. We had a 3-3 fit in their suit, so they were playing in a 7-card fit with our side having the majority in HCP (I had 8 average points). What is your general approach in such auctions? Do you double with xxx in their suit, relying on partner to leave it in with 3 good or 4+ trumps? Do you just compete over any 2-level scramble in order to explore for game? I'm assuming that advancer actually has some hopes for game. --Sigi Well there are lots of possible agreements. I think the most standard is: A penalty x sets up a forcing pass through 2X if the opps run. Some play X=S some play X=H. For the opposite approach: No forcing pass. First x by either player is takeout. A takeout x by responder establishes a forcing pass. Leb or whatever variant of it you play applies. (Treating the x as 15-18ish) In one partnership I play, forcing pass through 2H but the first x is takeout. I think its wierd...

I played 5N making 5 3 times last year, winning lots of imps each time. So don't make fun of 5N. :P

Usually they have a 10 or 11 card fit on this auction...

5C, at this vul it wouldn't even require much thought.

Never mind that doesn't help, I still have an idle trump in my hand...

If he is 2524 with both club honors and has pitched a heart, then I play High heart, Heart ruff, A and K of diamonds then a heart pitching a diamond and dummy has to score the CJ at the end.

Yeah whenever 2N or 4N is a scramble, I use this treatment. If you play 2N then the high suit is the good hand, then you are foiled evertime partner doesn't bid clubs...

Let me ignore competative game bids, and discuss freely bid games. You will contract for 4M when you think your hands will produce on average 9.5-11.5 tricks (the lower end is slightly lower at imps, especially vul). Since the lower end of these are more common I will guess that the average number of tricks produced by a freely bid 4M bid is 10.25. To estimate the probability of making game, we estimate this from the binomial distribution (basically assuming that we win each trick independantly with probability 10.25/13): P(10 tricks)=13 choose 10 * (10.25/13)^10*(2.75/13)^3 P(11 tricks)=13 choose 11 * (10.25/13)^11*(2.75/13)^2 P(12 tricks)=13 choose 12 * (10.25/13)^12*(2.75/13) P(13 tricks)= (10.25/13)^13 P(10)=25.1% P(11)=25.6% P(12)=15.9% P(13)=4.5% Total=71.1% Thats slightly higher than I expected, but not by much. Maybe my 10.25 guess is slightly high.

Well now I make a responsive x. This auction is identical to 2H-3D-3H-? If partner bids 3 spades, I have a close call between 3N, 4C and 4D next. Hopefully if I bid 3N the slow way, partner will know to not pass with a small stiff....

Well if declarer has 4 clubs, then partner is 3433 shape and probably would have just raised 2N to 3N. So its much more likely that partner is 3415 and declarer has diamonds. DA and then DT. If partner is in fact 3433 he will initially think declarer is 5314 until the second diamond trick, but then after it will know the whole hand, so we can't butcher the defense too badly like this. (Although I would have led the SK initially so partner knows what is going on in trumps...)

When I am playing Leb here, I bid 2N announcing I am not interested in game. I would bid directly with more like a 13 count. What I actually play in all balancing or pre-balancing auctions is what I called scrambled leb: 2N is 2 places to play OR a bid of the highest possible suit without game interest A bid of the highest possible suit shows game interest Others are natural and wide ranging The idea is that we might want to bid game in hearts (when there suit is spades) on around 23 high and some distribution. We will not want to bid game in NT or in a minor on 23 high very often. When there suit is hearts, showing values with 3D doesn't help much, but its a freebee.... NOTE: I do not treat 2M-P-P-? as a balancing auction by an unpassed hand, and I don't shade my xes much here, so normal leb applies. The actual auction provided is clearly a balancing auction (x by a passed hand), so safety, and not accurate game bidding is the most important goal. My usual style in 1M-P-2M auction is to treat xes by both players as a balancing action (OBAR style)...

The best advantage of DONT is that you are never forced to 3th level. I don't like the Woolsey against strong NT, because after 2♥♠ in misfit, you play 3♣♦ (doubled). And 2NT are even worser. The Woolsey is very similar to Cappelletti: 2♣ 1-suiter of unknown color 2♦ 4+4+ majors 2♥♠ Major and minor 2NT Minors (double is sometimes played 5m-4M against strong NT) Personally, I like woolsey (I want to get to my best fit on most hands, even if, on rare occasion, I end up at the 3 level on a misfit hand) but here is Lynn Dias's compromise scheme: x: 4 in M and 5+ in m OR 6+ in a red suit or Both Majors, very strong 2C: 4+C, 5+ in a major 2D: 4+D, 5+ in a major 2H: Majors 2S: Spades Over the x, continuations are like woolsey: 2C: asks for minor (xer might bid hearts instead) 2D asks for major (passes with diamonds, and jumps to 3H with 6H) 2M natural