pilowsky

My understanding is that from time to time the dealer works out which usernames are doing particularly well. It seems that users with the letters 'pos' in their names are in that category at the moment. This means that for the next week or so all users with the letters pos in any combination in their username will only get 11-14 HCP and a 4432 distribution in the Free tournaments. I suppose it's tough but I guess we'll just have to take one for the team this time. Enjoy it while you can WYSIWYG!

In a death-defying display of defensive devilry, the East robot cunningly and contemptuously ignores convention and gives me a convincing lesson in card-play. Watch the trapeze act in ♦ in the end. I advise sun-block. This is from a matchpoints Tournament - not a minefield I really like to enter, so I tried bidding "normally". Here's the hand. ♠J led [hv=pc=n&s=saq32haq76dkck652&w=sjt94hjdj643cj973&n=s7hkt5dt8752cat84&e=sk865h98432daq9cq&d=w&v=0&b=8&a=ppp1cp1dd1np2cp3nppp]399|300[/hv]

You do realise that you are "mismangling" the speech by the Commander of the SEALS Admiral McRaven - just checking.

Come and make my bed - then sort out terrorism for me.

My average blood pressure was high before the tournament started - I took this to be a 'stress response'. As the tournament progressed my BP fell in a smooth fashion - three times in a row. In me anyway, I suspect this is a meditative effect. Zelendakh is unaware perhaps that I am a Professor of Physiology, Pharmacology and Neuroscience, who published on this exact topic more than once - amongst other things. It is possible that I know what I am talking about and that he/she doesn't. Interestingly, as I play I 'felt' calmer and more relaxed. The action of taking my BP in between hands slowed down the pace of play. I have translated this into my actual game. I now make a point of meditatively counting my points three times and assessing my shape and so on before making my bid as a way of relaxing before each hand. This resets my mind from the previous hand, It doesn't have to take long with practice.

Very helpful

Damon Runyon was an extremely famous American writer. Amongst his many pieces is a short story entitled blood pressure. The story starts like this: "It is maybe eleven-thirty of a Wednesday night, and I am standing at the corner of Forty-eighth Street and Seventh Avenue, thinking about my blood pressure, which is a proposition I never before think much about. In fact, I never hear of my blood pressure before this Wednesday afternoon when I go around to see Doc Brennan about my stomach, and he puts a gag on my arm and tells me that my blood pressure is higher than a cat's back, and the idea is for me to be careful about what I eat, and to avoid excitement, or I may pop off all of a sudden when I am least expecting it. 'A nervous man such as you with a blood pressure away up in the paint cards must live quietly,' Doc Brennan says. 'Ten bucks, please,' he says." I particularly like the bit about the "paint cards" As you can imagine, a few more paragraphs follow in which Runyon becomes embroiled with a series of misadventures involving a bunch of extremely seedy characters before he gets struck on the head and returns to the Doctor. "'But,' Doc Brennan says, when he takes my blood pressure again, 'your pressure is down below normal now, and as far as it is concerned you are in no danger whatever. It only goes to show what just a little bit of quiet living will do for a guy,' Doc Brennan says. 'Ten bucks, please,' he says." My interest was immediately piqued. Since my professional life has revolved around the question of how the central nervous system controls the delivery of oxygen to the tissues while maintaining a stable acid-base balance: in other words, the neuroscience of airways breathing and blood pressure, I wondered if playing Bridge has health benefits - for me anyway. I undertook what is known in the Res. Biz. as an uncontrolled, non-randomised unblinded 'n of 1' trial; in triplicate. I was the only subject. The study - if you can call it that - was conducted in the morning Australian Eastern Standard Time. I registered in three consecutive ACBL IMP's challenge format tournaments. I wore an OMRON HEM-FL21 22-42 cm cuff and recorded my blood pressure before I started the tournament and after each hand. My a priori hypotheses were that in general mental stress associated with Bridge would cause a rise in blood pressure and heart rate overall. In addition, I expected that there might be substantial inter-hand variation where difficult or exciting hands arose. The results were as follows: Mean systolic blood pressure fell [mmHg +/- (standard deviation)] from 131+/- 1 (s.d.) to 121 +/- 4. Diastolic pressure fell from 80 +/- 1 to 75 +/- 4. Heart rate also fell from 73 +/-2 to 69 +/- 2. Clearly, this is simply a bit of fun, but what might it mean. First, a fall in blood pressure of 10/5 mmHg is no small thing. If I could make ACBL tournaments into a pill and stamp 'Pilowsky' on them I'd be a billionaire tomorrow if this effect was real. What might be going on? I discussed the question with colleagues. We decided that one possibility is that Bridge is a form of 'mindfulness'. At first, I was surprised, but then I realised that sitting at home quietly playing Bridge against robots without having the associated anxieties of crossing the city to find a park, this may indeed be true. If so then, pending further study in a larger cohort, in a much better-designed study, Bridge may turn out to be one of the few things in life that are not only fun but are also good for you. How about that? Conflicts of interest: None, except that I'm hypertensive.

Thank you so much for taking the time to read my posts. On this particular hand I was as surprised as you were that it was possible to make 4♥. Like you, not being an expert, (and also like you, having signed up for the prime area for practice) I enjoy playing and hands working out how best to deal with them. This particular hand came about because I manufactured some hands where North had a weak hand with a 5 card heart suit and I had 15-17 HCP points. So, I already knew that the bidding sequence would probably go the way it did, and I expected to have a tough time making 2♥. The first time that I played it my result was 2H-1. I was not surprised until I looked at the double-dummy and the PBN and realised that it was a makeable contract. That's when I stepped through the file and worked out what it is that I did wrong. Sometimes this process can take me several goes. I used to do the same thing when I solved Chess problems - In a way, all games are the same. I think this is more important in matchpoints where overtricks are critical. On the other hand. at IMP's where being in game is critical, I wondered if the real experts would see something here that I hadn't. So that was the reason for the post. In this regard, cyberyeti's comment is very helpful. I think that I have a very long way to go before I'll be making either the over-tricks or getting into the game contracts and making them; but it is great to have the Forum to get advice. thank you partner .

Or as Donald Trump said - "herd mentality". As Fauci points out - in his recent testimony Sweden and New York are very different - so is the UK. I vividly recall the head of the British Heart Research Institute in Glasgow calling the British "the control group of Europe" because they are so poorly compliant when it comes to taking their anti-hypertensive medication. Given that pre-morbid state (obesity, hypertension, diabetes etc) is a major factor in the relative success of Sweden vis a vis the USA and give that Sweden performed badly compared wth comparable Scandinavian countries, this seems unlikely. Also, once again Dr Fauci - an actual infectious diseases expert - made Dr Paul a former ophthalmologist (like Basheer Al Asad) look a bit silly. Herd immunity works when (and I could be wrong on the exact number) about 80% of the population is immune. The best way to achieve this immunity is by vaccination, Not by exposing everyone to a disease that might kill up to 4% of individuals and cause serious delayed effects in many others. Generally speaking. Trump and his backroom fiends doesn't care partly because the overwhelming demographic affected in the USA are overweight black males - guess who they tend to vote for! Now apparently he wants to ignore the mail in ballots.

OK, I've taken a step back. I think a lot of the trouble originates from this post by Cherdano on July 28 #795. Appreciating his undoubted competence in Mathematics, He stated I can assure you that once your immune system starts fighting an infectious disease, this process - of fighting an infectious disease - may mean you are less infectious, but it does not mean you are not infectious. Since viral load, the duration of infection, the relapse rate and many other variables that can affect what happens to any one person. I was urging an abundance of caution in order to try and save lives. Some people, not all, reading Cherdano's comments might think that it was safe to go outside a couple of days after you contracted the virus or even a day or so after you felt better. This is not right. It is not the advice of health authorities either. To know this you need competency in infectious diseases, immunology and medicine in general. It has nothing at all to do with 'intelligence' (an out-moded concept anyway). It also has nothing at all do with cognitive ability. I am always happy to be corrected on errors of fact. In fact, the PVP is not as relevant as I at first thought because COVID19 is an incredibly common disease, and the consequences of a false positive test are minor, so the relevance is less. I should have thought of that. It is more important to have a very sensitive test. I agree, Cherdano and Helene were right and I was wrong. (Is that the first time someone has said that on BBF?) Now the real problem is public confidence in a vaccine when one comes along.

Right up until the moment when they pass your texas transfer...

Hmmmm, thanks.

Look, as I said, I appreciate expertise in mathematics, statistics and Bridge, A lot has been talked and written about on these topics in relation to COVID19. I was trying to get Clubs to close in Sydney weeks before they did. I was ignored because I'm a weak player. Bridge is like that. Only people who are good players are considered to be clever - this is pretty stupid thinking really. The mathematical and statistical discussion is terrific - obviously. Missing is the medical element. I apologise if anyone has their nose out of joint because the 'tone' appears incorrect'. It's completely unintentional. We all have our special areas of expertise. Where problems do arise is when people (like Peter Navarro) who has competence in one area thinks that this expertise enables him to speak authoritatively about every area. Trump is much worse. He has no competence in any area but speaks authoritatively about everything. I on the other hand am consumed with modesty. Although I do have quite a few mild competencies in a number of areas. What I can tell you is that in my world words matter. A few weeks ago in a post here that was ignored I mentioned that I rang the Journal of Physiology (London) to ask an Author to change the wording of a Topical Review that was in preprint. This was to avoid panic if the media were to get hold of it. This is important stuff. Lives could have been lost. Opinions on my abilities vary. From: you have ***** for brains you're a *****wit how do you know so much and my all time favourite - you need to look up the Dunning-Kruger effect (from a certified ACBL Bridge Teacher) - which by the way is a great read but a terrible paper.

That's too many l's for any Pilowsky to cope with Herr B.

So, do you calculate your opening counts with K&R? i.e. + length/shortage. which sort of has the same effect. I must admit I've dropped my 1NT to 14 HCP with GIB - and in the Club (alerted of course) but with a 'true' 19 I would normally call 2NT - at least with my system. So you're suggesting 2♣ here?

I know right! - I open on my HCP - it seems to pay dividends - although I get a few weird hands. I've started to draw the line at hands with voids.

Was ist los? There appears to be a little misunderstanding here.

Seems to be a quirk of GIB that it leads trumps a lot (at least against me).

Perhaps we could resolve this with a 12 board challenge format? Step outside boys.

This hand just came up in practice. The first time I bid it with the robots on the teaching table it went 1NT pass 2♦ pass 2♥ PPP and I successfully went 2♥-1. Then I discovered that the hand makes 4♥= on the lead. With a combined 22 HCP and 7 Trumps and a 4/2 split, I discover the value of AJ's over queens. the robots lead the ♥2 The question really is: how would you get to 4♥? Or would you? [hv=pc=n&s=sa7hk8dajt65cajt2&w=sk964hqt62dk72ck8&n=s3haj754d83c97654&e=sqjt852h93dq94cq3&d=s&v=e&b=3&a=1np2dp4hppp]399|300[/hv] If I play it properly, it looks like this.

I see where you are both coming from. One way we are running into difficulties is that COVID19 is an incredibly infectious disease. Let's say we have 1 million people and a test that has a sensitivity of 99.9 %. That's pretty good - right. But it still means that 100 sick people will not be identified. Even if the test is 99.99% sensitive (very unlikely) 10 people will not be detected. With a disease as infectious as COVID19 this is a big problem. That's why things like smallpox and so had to be eradicated and why people were so annoyed when labs were holding onto samples for 'study' "just in case". With cancer, it's bad if a small number don't get picked up, but not as bad - they can't spread it about. Unless, it's something like HPV of course, in which case they can which is why circumcision is a good thing. I could go on but what I am getting at is that behind all the numbers there are real people and real problems. We just need to be careful about how we express things. When I was an undergraduate student I was part of a group that published a paper using Bayes theorem (the maths, amongst other things, was my contribution) to combine two diagnostic tests to improve the accuracy of the diagnosis of a disorder. I am aware that your credentials in mathematics and statistics are a great deal more sophisticated than mine. I think that it might be useful if we we could contribute something together that would jointly be of benefit to the Bridge community.

Like all matters of Judgement, it varies inversely with the (hours of wakefulness multiplied by your blood alcohol level) divided by masterpoints. This is a well-known fact.

Absolutely supererogeratory card play by the advanced ACBL robots. This time I carefully had to watch the discards and manage a crafty series of deceptive card plays to achieve the ridiculous result. .West leads the ♥10 and yes you guessed it! East ducks - T26Q - Here's what happened next, [hv=pc=n&s=sa5hqdkqj8653ckt6&w=st864hat95dt2caq2&n=skq932h732da9cj94&e=sj7hkj864d74c8753&d=n&v=n&b=5&a=pp1np2hp2sp3nppp]399|300[/hv]

Well, just to put our minds at ease, I gave the hand to the robots on a teaching table. I have a funny feeling that I read somewhere that Mike Lawrence had a hand in designing GIB - I might be wrong. In his complete book on doubles, he states "a five-card suit is gold". The robots overcalled 3♣ and after I bid 3♥ they made their way to 4♣. I let them play it out. Here's what happened.

I have no issues - The PVP is the predictive value positive. It's the only important metric in a diagnostic test. I am suggesting that you incorporate it into your thinking. It will improve and better inform your investigations.