thepossum

I don't know if anyone is interested but I put this into GiB (me as South). We ended up in 3 spades. West didnt bid and North bid a 2S simple raise etc East bid 3C, I bid 3S (because of Norths limits[7-10], and my loser count etc) then all-pass Very basic sims based on Souths hand and the auctions. GiB auction only gave average spade tricks 8.6 (SD approx 1) and chance of game approx 18% The above auction gave average spade tricks 9.8 (SD approx 1) and chance of game approx 56% EDIT SOrry, just realised I hadn't restricted Easts points enough. Here are corrected sims GiB auction only gave average spade tricks 8.9 (SD approx 1) and chance of game approx 23% The above auction gave average spade tricks 9.9 (SD approx 1) and chance of game approx 61%

I think that is definitely true in Boris Johnson's case. Its a bit rough blaming anything to do with Brexit on Theresa May IMHO I do wonder though. The world in so many ways seems perpetually divided into impossible to reconcile camps now Maybe any blame needs to go back prior to the refeendum though. Who knows how far back Its strange having a thread like this resurrected all of a sudden. How time flies or not

I appreciate the use of media to manipulate us all and acknowledge Winston's point about cultural bias in both our most dominant close connections, experiences and media coverage etc. However from a purely objective sense I believe the annual fire patterns are worsening each year. They certainly are here. And while it is clearly possible to play golf when there is a fire nearby, its rather sad seeing all that beautiful wilderness go up in smoke too But in relation to Winston's point there are many issues facing people around the world, in addition to climate change. So notwithstanding the issue of personal expression for what people are losing and feeling in west coast USA, what about global inequality and how its possible all over the world for people to be sitting in a luxury hotel eating a 10 course banquet while people are dying of starvation just down the road. OK Winston

Just thinking of everyone in the USA, especially the West Coast and all those beautiful places and the wonderful people I met there Take care

I am very curious about this whole disruption thing, who is behind it - whether all are beneficial or some are and some totally exploitative and destructive. Some with massive power and very little cost/risk are able to undercut and attack anything they like. I have seen too many good industries/businesses being squeezed - often along with that has gone quality and choice IMO. Some of the "disruptors" seem to me to be nothing better than cashed up parasites who have used their massive power to suck whole industries, cities and countries dry. Some of those forces/interests even use issues like sustainability as an argument to support what they are doing, when if anyone actually analysed the effects they may be making things worse. See my above comment though - maybe its inevitable and a cycle of change. Would be terrible if everything became so concetrated it could never be changed agaain though

Hoping this is only a tenporary feeling. Will miss you on here. I'm a relative newcomer on here although I keep wondering about an old Bridge site I knew from many years ago, pre-web. My memory isnt good. I keep looking around for alternatives too. I really enjoy many aspects of BBO but the lack of options over the system is the main limitation for me. I had been hoping the merge with FunBridge could actually give more system options via BBO interface etc Without wanting to turn every post and every issue into my regular rant against the world. There is something terribly controlling about this world that goes beyond pure business and commerce. Without wanting to sound too paranoid, it does seem we are constantly being forced into situations that make it easier for some to collect and connect information about us, and harder and harder for us to have alternative choices. Maybe I'm just old fashioned Also, it seems that, although in some ways many still benefit more broadly from the economic growth and benefits, and I am fully supportive of those who create getting a bigger share of the pie, I also feel there are some who never get any rewards for what they create and some with immense power who maybe are cashing in too much. There seem to be two real options in this world if you are in any form of creative business (big or especially small). That is either to continue to allow yourself to be squeezed or if you are lucky enough to have enough power to go with your self-respect to opt out of industries altogether. Sorry this isnt about me (the thread), it just seemed relevant. I will miss you on here PS I never studied it and don't know much but somebody once wrote about the destructive and creative forces of capital

Thx Nige. Usually I would run my solid suit. In this case I did run hearts first, but stupidly used spades instead of diamonds for crossing between hands.. The major error here was thinking I had 13 easy tricks and not planning anything at all :) I even tried to claim after trick 1 :) and I have a horrible feeling if I had been playing serious bridge (other than GiB) that would have forced me to play for drops and not allow a finesse My exact line was not dissimilar to your proposed line. Just a few small but very important differences

Thanks for the comments and how difficult it is for this forum. I was hoping for a dummies' guide to planning the thing, notwithstanding the difficulty And special thx to Stephen for pointing out the most obvious and serious error of all�� I should clarify in defence of the limited skill I do have that after I discarded my 5 diamonds and had a small panic at that stage I realised I had to plan for one of the finesses or hopefully a drop. Sadly as has been mentioned by several people it was best to avoid the black suits too early. I successfully avoided touching my clubs but rather stupidly destroyed my spade situation. In fact just looking at my hand at the instant of that stage of the error there was a still a point when crossing back to my hand I could have finessed the Jack :) I need to check again and see if there was a later stage I could have recovered the situation (maybe the other finesse but I continued hoping for a drop) but I'm sitting here now looking at a sad MP score :)

Hi Apollo I think you covered all the considerations :) My error (that kind of wasnt an error) was playing hearts first, crossing to the King of spades, then stupidly discarding a small diamond on the Queen However, if I had played diamonds I would soon have found out that the 5 diamonds was not a winner anyway with 10xxxx diamodns in West My heart sank immediately after realising what I had discarded but I kept playing hoping for a drop and not having to finesse to make the contract. I just made an error setting up the suits to delay the finesse to the very end. Both black queens were in East and the 10xxxx in West. EDIT I just checked. The mistake was to use Spades for crossing between hands. I needed the small Spade later I was just incredibly diappointed that I scored only 19% rather thatn 90%, despite having bid the 7NT :)

Hi all Here was a reasonably solid 7NT (maybe 1pt shy although I knew I had all the aces) which sadly I missed (I will explain why later). I actually thought I had a simple 13 tricks. I made an error on assuming distributions and playing suits in the wrong order really but the obvious 13 tricks are not there :) I actually want concetrating and discarded one of my 13 obvious tricks. But that did not cost the contract :) Can you give some tips for me and any others who don't play that many 7NT hands how you would plan the play please [hv=pc=n&s=sajthakjdaqj95ca2&n=sk8hq843dk3ckj975&d=s&v=b&b=7&a=3n(25-27%2C%20exagerrated%20by%201)p7n(11%2B%20points)ppp]266|200[/hv] 2 of hearts lead, E played 10 H won by King in South etc Free massive matchpoints tourney in case anyone wonders. It wasnt the worst result I have had on a matchpoints hand but very disaappointed to miss it

If you log off from a tournament it generally remembers where you were or maybe very slightly before - eg last card played or last bid etc. In regular play if you leave a table it does not remember as far as I know. Thats a table with 3 robots. If there are other people you could potentially leave and come back :)

I am relieved to get some responses after my post. I had been concerned whether any Water Cooler posters had gone down with their boats :)

Just a thought. In a tournament situation in order to save time rather than running the exact same simulation with the same seed each time, just run it once and save the result to be used elsewhere :) I was going to start another topic somewhere but this seems a relevant thread. I'm weighing up the pros and cons, investment costs versus robot quality benefits between a monthly investment in Prime and an occasional weekly purchase of a basic Bot. I know I asked earlier and was told there wasnt really that much difference most of the time, except for unning mroe simulations. I have been meaning to put some of my more interesting basic bot auctions through the advanced bot bidding machine as a test :) Some logic that would be good in an advanced bot would be different defensive approaches. The bidding doesnt go awry too often

Hi there, Welcome to the forum. Just a tip as beginner/novice many of the topics on this forum are at a much higher level, so don't ever feel intimidated or allow anyone to suggest you are struggling when you are not. You actually may find easier to understand stuff on the intermediate, advanced or even expert forums :) Just as a tip as to how the threads often work. Somebody may ask quite a reasonable question asking for a bit of simple guidance, but if it is an interesting enough hand or question you will find the thread soon degenerates into a very high-level debate over advanced or even expert topics sometimes

I didnt have my regular GiB crib sheet for bid explanations, and I purpsoefully didn't check any Bridge teaching sites, and I am out of my depth venturing here out of Novice and Beginner but I was trying to decide between 3H and 4H. I ended up going for 3H. I'm feeling a bit lonely, not having doubled etc What I was looking for was the equivalent of a game force followed by hearts as my longest suit, so I don't know if 3H risks being passed. Just checking a few pages on overcalls of weak 2s, maybe the jump overcall to 4H was the best. I was understating my hand. Actually reading down the page double followed by eharts is stronger :) I sometimes revert to my simpler bridge upbringing when I had never even heard of takeout doubles. They were reserved for penalties However thinking about it more given that you are opposite a passed hand there are fewer possible outcomes, but surely a slam is still possible Thinking back to my simpler times I may have done the jump overcall, however I had a traumatic experience explaining a jump overcall bid once so I always get confused about which is strong or weak But seriously I would not be inclined to risk missing 4H, so why waste time EDIT In order to find what my regular partner GiB would have expected in such a situation it would have been 3 or 4 hearts. Given the strength of my hand I would have bid 4H with GiB. It didn't take me long and much frustration trying to code it up in Dealer but eventually I managed an auction like that :) The reason for choosing 4H rather than 3H is that I would not want to be passed so why mess about and take the risk. Thats with my regular partner. However you run the risk of being raised immediately to 6 or 7 EDIT 2 I know my partner too well. I was raised to 6H immediately with 10 points, 2 hearts and no keycards with as far as I could see so more than 11 tricks, so my original 3H bid stands :) I am also quite confident that 3H would be passed many times and potentially even a double passed. So thats the fun of GiB. To be fair the hand did have two heart honours, but sadly a few too many losers elsewhere between us :) EDIT 3 A simple sim gave average tricks in hearts 10.75, chance of game 81%, chance of 6H 30% etc

Full credit to the Lake Travis Wikipedia editors for being to quick as to have updated almost immediately How could I not click on a Twitter headline relating to that, observe reports of carnage, requiring some serious in depth research into Lake Travis :) "Jesus Calms the Storm 35 That day when evening came, he said to his disciples, “Let us go over to the other side.” 36 Leaving the crowd behind, they took him along, just as he was, in the boat. There were also other boats with him. 37 A furious squall came up, and the waves broke over the boat, so that it was nearly swamped. 38 Jesus was in the stern, sleeping on a cushion. The disciples woke him and said to him, “Teacher, don’t you care if we drown?” 39 He got up, rebuked the wind and said to the waves, “Quiet! Be still!” Then the wind died down and it was completely calm. 40 He said to his disciples, “Why are you so afraid? Do you still have no faith?” 41 They were terrified and asked each other, “Who is this? Even the wind and the waves obey him!”"

Thankyou.

So that I don't keep adding and editing the above post I want to give an example of very dangerous mindsets and approaches. Anyone who has studied human behaviour in any way shape or form should know that even the best models explain or predict only a very small proportion of human behaviour at the average level, let alone at the individual level. If you combine that limited explanatory and predictive power with the kind of people who are running so much of our world analytically, preditcively, politically - very influencial powerful people - could actually in their ignorance take a model explaining, say 10% of behaviour on average and dare to use that to predict an individual with a level of certainty they cannot claim. They can sell that to people without the knowledge to understand the limitations etc ... and, sadly, without being too specific, I am seriously concerned about many who carry a huge amount of authority - the level of their knowledge and understanding of the models they claim and sell with such certainty EDIT. Something very important in the long piece I am currently editing but I want to restate it. In my view (and I believe a view that would be shared) you cannot address, understand, help people with delusions or hallucinations through objective approaches alone. They are highly subjective, contextual, inidividual. That is why psychiatry and psychology are mostly still clinical in their approach to dealing with clients/patients (pick your preferred model). It is alarming though that those who favour the objective and the impersonal are growing in power - those who think everything psychological can be sorted out with a lab test or a brain scan

I will just write critiques of everything you say without involving you then. I don't need your permission to tear apart the misleading things you say all the time Just continual arrogance. Do you know everyone on these forums that you talk to. As I have said you are displaying disgustingly arrogant attitudes and behaviours and attempts to claim authoriyt you do not have and make seriously misleading claims all the time on many issues And this behaviour, cosntantly directed at me, and your potentially overlapping circles and potential interests in discrediting me for any manner of motives do make me very suspicious sometimes Also, from things you have said elsewhere I have reason to believe you do know things about me other than that publicly disclosed here. All I know about you is what you have publicly disclosed so nothing creepy from my side. I am more concerned about your circles and sources of information close to you in different circles. I cannot say more because as I said that are many people or interests who could intentionally try to attack and undermine me personally and professionally, or who actually stand to benefit in some way This is a very dirty world. I have faced that dirt in many areas of my personal and professional live for decades. Competing professional interests, political interests, institutional interests in harming me, and even personal ones. I am sorry but your behaviour combined with other behaviour against me from certain linked interests or parties gives me good reason to be cautious And finally, before you make any ill-advised comments or hypotheses on my mental health status I can back what I say above with hard evidence Please, I am not suggesting any direct intent or interests on your part, simply the risk through our many potential circles of overlap. However your seeming personal obsession with me and behaviour towards me is a bit questionnable If you are who you claim with the knowledge and training you claim you would actually have either agreed with some of the issues I have raised on this issue and others, or at least been able to discuss them in a professionally competent way Much of what you have written on some issues (not your claimed area of expertise) has not gone much beyond high school or wikipedia research level. The amount of stuff out there from so many people claiming authority they do not have, things they say that go unchallenged, the quantity of it. There arent enough of us who actually know stuff and have time to go around and critique every item of BS we read As a parting comment by way of partial critique. Its all well and good to say that we live in a purely physical world with physical processes that theoretically could explain everything (quantum scientists may disagree). However any competent or knowlegeable scientist knows that the mount of explanatory power of our models (eg knowledge for want of a better world) is tiny in issues as complex as mental health and psychology. And it is genuinely frightening that there are so-called professionals in some disciplines who believe we can throw away all those other areas of human knoweldge (and I mean all) and explain everything that happens looking at cells, neurons, neurotransmitters etc. I do mean all. Mental health issues, psychoses cover area area of the human condition and every area of knowledge. Anyone cclaiming otherwise is reason for anxiety over the dangerous potential of their beliefs. What is dangerous is not that their area of expertise gives them strong beliefs about things but that theya re not at a sufficient level of knowledge or expertise to appreciate that an issue such as schizophrenia is actually an ongoing dialogue and competition of ideas And without wanting to get too personal over the terrible history I know your family suffered, I am hoping that that more than anything would lead you support my views over ideas, debate, and schizophrenia. I assume you are aware of the terrible history mentally ill people have faced through history, some of it essentially genocidal in nature too. I apologise for raising that highly sensitive issue with you. I hope you will forgive me. However I hope you will understand that those of us at potential risk of those tendencies (some of which are highly evident globally at the meoment) have good reason to be very concerned. Despite those fears and concerns I am prepared to argue and debate anyone at the level of ideas provided that they also respect that conversation is as far as some ideas about mental health should ever get. If you want to know where those cocncerns come from. Well much comes from observation of the global political climate. But even more comes from inside professional knowledge of many relevant disciplines. Sadly I fear those who are excessive reductionist and technologically focussed and ignore the human, social, ecological are in the ascendancy. You know the kind who dazzle everyone with long words, fancy expensive machines and technologoies with potentially devastating consequences. There is a particular mindset attracted to those dominant techniques. Sadly some with those mindsets miss a lot of important knowledge, thought, ability to think in different ways etc Do you know how influential some of those voices and tendencies are? And do you know how little knowledge many of those supporting those approaches have about anything much at all. There are some extremely powerful interests allied - not all at professional or professorial level either I may add. Very powerful forces indeed and often frightening due to their prejudices and ignorance

Thanks Stephen. This is a clear case where 3NT is disastrous with the correct lead. I just read it somewhere, thats all, if you felt your NT opener was strong enough to cover the other suits

It does indeed, and your posts to date suggest you do not have that experience and are relying on hearsay from other professionals who to be blunt should not be offering such advice without having sat in a room for many sessions. Then it is uqestionnable whether it is appropriate to discuss in the open by any professional. There is obviously public interest given the importance, but I believe people are on very dangerous territory and have let politics blind their clinical guidelines and practice Are you a psychiatrist or not. Do you practice clinically. Have you sat in consultations with president Trump over many sessions etc You may say this is no tricial matter that some people opine that The President is suffering psychotic symptoms and may not be fit for office. But something just as/if not more alarming has been the disgraceful display by professional people over recent years behaving unprofessionally and politically through social media and forgetting a few important principles of being a professional And at a time like this, politically and in the middle of a global pandemic with trust of so many institutions under threat it is frightening the amount of pseudo-professional and pseudo-expert BS coming out of people's mouths on social and other media, claiming authority they do not have to intimidate the ignorati (population and media) If you wonder why this particular issue winds me up so much I have already discussed my concerns over excessively medical and uninformed approaches to understanding serious mental illness. I am still editing a long response. However in relation to the pandemic, even from a position of simply being highly trained and qualified I have seen disgraceful claims made out of ignorance or from political motives over all aspects of the pandemic from some people who should know better. What frightens me is that so many of them clearly don't know better. That is truly frightening. And whether you like it or not I stack my lifetimes training and personal experience in numerous fields up against what you have provided so far - and I am comptenet enough to see BS in most scientific fields, even if I do not know all the details of every disciplne. There are not many papers/disciplines that I could not get a decent understanding of from reading a few papers. Some areas are incredicly highly complex and obscure - but a well written paper and abstract and a small investment of time reading a few related academic articles provides enough understanding to any scientifically and academically competent and trained person. I won't use the word intelligent but I could. You have raised it in the past an issue in a way I challenge. It is highly charged issue and very dangerous if not discussed well but I believe all individuals have natural strengths and weaknesses and ability to learn different things to different levels Sorry I am rambling again and my post is growing. But you were the one who raised the issue of being able to distingusih between trolling and other forms of communication

And the one person here with qualifications and clinical and research experience in psychology is ignored - and ignored by someone who should know better not to claim expertise in something they are not. I am risking that being disrespcet but none is intended I am still working on my edits. A full response and rebuttal of some of the above will take a long time. I am getting a bit sick of some of the arrogance on display on this and other issues; and the attempts (successful or not) to dazzle the ignorati with pseudo knowledge on subjects It goes like this. I know/met a psychiatrist or some membrs of my family who are psychiatrists and share the same name have discussed a few anecodes. EDit Sorry forgot this bit. As a professor/doctor with expertise in physiology and using one particular, hotly debated biological/medical model of schizophrenia that also makes me an expert - because the ignorati think that any long words starting with phy, psy etc and ending in ology/iatry must be similar areas of expertise I also read an old narrative style book, allegedly a handbook for familes/cares of people with schizophrenia, written by a psychiatrist/doctor(?) with some very specific positions on the longstanding debate around various issues of mental health care. Here is an execpted paragraph about schizophrenia I found on the internet. I rest my case as an expert. And using that expertise it is quite obvious to me watching a few minutes interview that President Trump has paranoid schizophrenia etc When you said you have studied this subject Pilowsky, was that by reading a few wikipedia articles or do you have letters in the subject :) Not that it should matter. I promised only to dismantle the things you said, not who you are

Indeed, a lot of bids were new to me since I started playing GiB 2/1 a few years ago It seems to every convention under the sun on it's card plus some unique bids of its own When I learned via basic acol I think the only conventional bids i knew were strong 2C, strong 2s, strong and weak nt, Blackwood standard, Stayman, major transfers, and a few simple signals etc Oh I forgot. I learned a few basic conventional leads against suits and especially NT

Hi Richard, as I said it led spades against 3nt. I wasn't very clear sorry

Top scores were 3nt south with or without overtricks. I was upset then I realised they didn't get a diamond lead What I meant by ignoring the transfer in this case was not passing but bidding 3nt which I believe is more permissible with minor transfers