thepossum

It is absolutely disgusting behaviour by some people who I imagine are respected professional people against someone such as myself who always behaves in a courteous and professional way towards everyone in my life personally and professionally I only ever defend myself against extreme cases of harassment and bullying I have done it in other forums and will do it as long as any bully dares cross my path Bullies such as some on this site are the cause of so many problems and destroy innocent people's lives and careers I observed it and experienced it here and other places

PS I don't suggest anyone continues this thread if you want to stay out of suspicion of bullying and harassment over many years I have reported it previously to moderators and even senior management of BBO. Also the disgusting behaviour by some at tables Sadly nobody seems to care about certain individuals. I have observed same bullying others on several occasions So, despite the fact that BBO seems to condone obnoxious behaviour so be it I will probably be the one banned. That's how the assholes here work. Attacking the victim of harassment ***** off

Dear Asshole Hrothgar Just ***** off and bully someone else you psychopathic *****ed up asshole Ok ***** off and leave me alone you obnoxious ***** Years of this behaviour is disgusting I never attacked anyone in this site but every time you stir up and start attacks ***** off whoever you are

I'm going to request that all my Forum threads are removed from this site Everytime I post anything for discussion I get a full on assault from the likes of Hrothgar and his mates They have been attacking me for years. I took a break but as soon as I come back they launch into personal attack mode and even make extremely offensive personal insinuating comments Hrothgar is probably the ring leader and clearly has been running a bullying and harassment ring on this site for years I'm out of here. I've said this over and over again What an obnoxious place ruined by some truly obnoxious people

What meds you asshole You are just a bunch of obnoxious bullying assholes

WTF Does everyone else on these forums give their identities. I'm not claiming anything at all. Just ***** off and leave me alone Are you all assholes

WTF Does everyone else on these forums give their identities. I'm not claiming anything at all. Just ***** off and leave me alone Are you all assholes

Some of us don't have to establish ourselves. Our knowledge stands irrepsective of your views. Your loss buddy The problem with this world now is that it is dominated by ignorance and people who spout their so-called knowledge as a replacement for insight. The people who actually do have knowledge, skill, training, experience and more importantly the ability to think and critically aalyse are being ignored these days in place a many self-proclaimed experts who think pieces of paper replace intellect The good people are now being lost. Its not just your loss and others on this site. But the whole world's loss. I'm kind of beyond caring any more. I yook a break from the place after a year of ignorant abuse. Seems you are all still at it What you people need to learn is that when a point is made to address the point without reorting to ad hom and relying on others with less or equal expertise. I mind a point and nobody challeneged it. That can be done irrepsective of what expertise you claim. You should all know that or the world is lost

No need for such dismissive insulting sarcasm (@good at math@) if you knew my lifetime training, knowledge and expertise but I left myself open (intentionally) for such an attack. Anyone with my level of training and knoeldge can understand and analyse the many months of research - admitedly there are not many at my level and much of what is written is BS And the main reason, which I mentioned in my DISCLAIMERS is the overall public health risk and risk to high risk groups. However those numbers can and do potentially cause unnecessary anxiety in terms of real individual and marginal risk to many people. The campaign is to reduce spread but is potentially causing unnecesary pereptions of risk. People are not good judges of risk. We need to wait and see Thanks for the reference but I can claim similar skill, knlwedge and expertise as well as not being a doctor, epidemiologist or public health expert like the author of that excellent post. I could have written the introduction to that post myself. Maybe I'm too modest sometimes :) But I left myself intentionally open to such a challenge and am happy for the reference. However I generally prefer to review the work by the virologists, epdiemiologists and public health and other experts (which I am more than trained and competent to do) rather than someone who claims none of those tags

DISCLAIMER 1. The following is posted more for discussion and I claim no profesional certified status in the areas of virology, epidemiology, public health etc etc - but do have some related training and knowledge and dare I say some competence with common sense and numbers DISCLAIMER 2: I'm in a moderate risk group and couldn't care less what takes me from this world - and a coronavirus sounds less unpleasant than many ways DISCLAIMER 3: I know public health people have every right to be anxious and those in high risk groups HOWEVER. My lifetime expertise is working with data, models, numbers, logic, research etc etc in many fields - irrelevant I know SO come on some people I am reading all the shock horror, panic panic by the doomsayers, who love to see disaster everywhere. Of course I'm not downplaying anything but tell me about this logic/lack of below There have been so few cases with a seemingly high death rate, and very little testing, therefore people say we need to test everyone/many more to show how bad the situation is. If there are so few deaths and cases while only testing those with serious symptoms, massively expanding testing will just improve the numbers and show everyone its not as bad as the panic merchants like to make out End Rant Sorry everyone. Mock at will

Dont have enough spare cash but would have bought yesterday afternoon Australian time Would have been a bit nervous first hour this morning that bears were taking over but..... Maybe the bears are still there but come on - a bit of virus panic and excessive oil panic doesnt change an economy overnight ... and China is back at work by all accounts despite them having had a virus outbreak - sadly cant say the the same for the rest of the world :( In fact with all that cheap oil out there and the lack of a chance to fly to Europe (with its huge footprint) thinking of investing in several tanks of petrol (gas for Americans) and going for a long driving holiday instead - unless we get locked down by this stupid virus. Its a shame we cant buy petrol (gas for Americans) now and pick it up when we need it :( Who cares about climate change. All that matters is the economy right now

Probably in the same way and for the same reasons many around the world and the USA (including me for quite a while) did not understand the election of President Trump, or the reason why Bernie Sanders probably would never be a threat to Trump, or here in Australia why there was such an unexpected (by some) election result I (as ex-UK) was one of many who despaired (for a while) over the Breixt vote but feel I had a small understanding due to my knowledge of the divides and anger around the place There is no single England, so single UK. There was a flawed process but what happened, from my understanding simply represented the mess and divisions throughout a complex economy and population which can never be adequately represented by a simple majority in Westminster (even class, wealth, privilege, attitudes to Brexit crossed party lines), or a single vote on an issue to attempt to represent the UK. A bit like the error of using a population averaged/mean model to make decisions on each individual or group in a society Just look at the last general election in the UK where very traditional working class/Labour areas voted Conservative and much of Labour's (eg social democratic/socialist) support comes from privileged inner cities See above for my views on flawed process and lack of understanding by many in the politicial establishment over the state of the UK and its diversity of countries, cultures, and socio-economic divides. There is no one England or UK. The process, however you look at it was rather inadequate to deal with those complexities Also N Ireland. However they too are rather divided. For example the Scots had opportunity years ago to vote for independence within the EU but voted to stay attacked to Westminster. N Ireland similarly has very complex issues based on very old historical and current economic and social divides I feel the whole world seems to be in something of a mess which current political processes and organisations seem rather incacpable of getting a grip of. Left/right has totally changed. All the old traditional divisions have changed through globablisation, changes in industry/technology and other factors/changes/social revolutions impacting old power bases. I wonder if our approach to democracy can deal with those divides or not. You/one hopes that the principle of Westminster (and other variants) of democracy works despite the break down in the old divides but only time will tell. At least one side of politics around the world is still struggling to come to terms with it. I wasnt trained in all this kind of thing (I understand maths and science better :) )but over recent years I have become a total cynic about everything political and feel nothing really matters whichever side you are. The world will progress or (most likely) not irrespective of anything else

Another article about Covid19 vs Flu and latest on Covid19 from an editorial by Dr Fauci in the NEJM - admittedly from several days ago but... NY Times - Covid19 vs Flu NEJM - Dr Fauci Editorial NEJM - latest Plenty of other resources around. I cant help wondering if cases of influenza, especially severe and fatal cases, were reported in the same way as Covid19 there could be a bit more perspective on overall risks. Some of the behaviour in community caused by anxiety of the new virus already seems rather out of proportion but.......as I was trying to express above, addressed by Ken and others, my concerns were simply a reasnoably informed community member being rather concerned about perceptions of risk. I hope nobody misunderstood my post that I was trying to downplay risks etc. But having read a great deal about the illness so far, apart from the lack of vaccine at this stage, it seems that many of the figures (eg severity, fatality percentages) are heading towards being comparable with a serious flu outbreak. Do people know, for example how many people are estimateed to die from influenza every year - directly and from complications - the nature of the symptoms, treatment and what causes mortality. I genuinely feel that community concern, while obviously warranted, is potentially getting out of hand towards panic behaviour. That is simply the understanding, reading and concerns of a community member - nothing more I'm wondering how everyone feels the communication of severity and risk perceptions have been communicated and received in different countries and through different media platforms. The thread to date (of course early days) shows much of the lack of clarity common everywhere to my view PS I have great confidence in the respective experts and agencies. Please, I hope nobody misunderstands my posts as anything else

Given the (at least to me) somewhat over-anxiety in relation to Covid19 risk compared to all the other risks we face every day. I found this article about differences between influenza and Covid19. At a cursory glance the main difference appears to be that they are simply caused by different coronaviruses. Covid19 vs Flu Also reading another article somewhere (I will try to find the link) suggesting that over-anxiety is often caused by failure to understand the difference between overall public health (eg health resources) and individual risks, and also the tendency to look at risk from coronavirus alone without adjusting for all the other risks to give a more accurate marginal increase in risk PS Please take everything I write on this subject with a grain of salt since I am not a doctor, virologist, epidemiologist, public health official etc. Just an interested community member :) PPS although at this moment I am feeling quietly confident that despite extreme temperatures, drought, bushfires and floods in Australia so far this year the heat and sun will be somewhat protective against viruses

Lucky they chose red-black suits all those years ago rather than red-green. Would have been a bit unfair Sadly I thought Bridgebase dark mode may have been about something a bit more subversive than colo(u)r schemes regards P

Do people have a chance/mechanism to defend themselves against unfair or baseless allegations

Dear Zelandakh There really was no need to dredge it up since the thread went back on track. However be careful not to point the finger at the wrong people. Its easy to jump to conclusions about where aggression starts. However I have been trying harder to avoid reacting to real and/or perceived slights. It takes a while for compounded aggressions over many (18??) months to calm down but I'm getting there. And often those who caused the worst aggression and provocation initially are forgotten and others end up in conflict. But I'm not going to dredge through 18months of threads and table behaviour. Haven't we all got better things to do Back to bridge and Soloways regards P PS People are allowed to have different views on how to bid a hand. It would be a very dull game if everyone agreed all the time and bid exactly the same way :)

Does it really matter hrothgar. You are going to challenge my sims now (I will provide my basic back of the envelope sims if you like that back up common sense). Maybe one day you will learn other people have valid opinions other than yours. WOuld you prefer I run a one hand sim with your prototype to back up your limited views And I really don't understand why you spend so much time defending a bot's bids when you sepnt so much time over the last year and ahalf bagging it. Maybe there is a reason Maybe you forgot this thread wasnt even about the stupid bot until you in your usual overdefenseive attacking way siezed on something and launched an attack. The way to bully anyone who dares to question anything on this site Are you their attack dog Or maybe its just that you are feeling insecure that there maybe somebody around here who can actually challenge your self-proclaimed expertise on everything, and is prepared to stand up to you - mr expert on everything Updated results for Hrothgar's ideal hand S by S, number of tricks: 25328 / 2000 = 12.664 Ań 0.0314122 (95% conf.) min: 8 max: 13 sdev: 0.716313 chance to win 1S by S: 2000 / 2000 = 1 Ań 0 (95% conf.) min: 1 max: 1 sdev: 0 chance to win 2S by S: 2000 / 2000 = 1 Ań 0 (95% conf.) min: 1 max: 1 sdev: 0 chance to win 3S by S: 1999 / 2000 = 0.9995 Ań 0.000980331 (95% conf.) min: 0 max: 1 sdev: 0.0223551 chance to win 4S by S: 1996 / 2000 = 0.998 Ań 0.00195919 (95% conf.) min: 0 max: 1 sdev: 0.0446766 chance to win 5S by S: 1977 / 2000 = 0.9885 Ań 0.00467556 (95% conf.) min: 0 max: 1 sdev: 0.10662 chance to win 6S by S: 1772 / 2000 = 0.886 Ań 0.0139369 (95% conf.) min: 0 max: 1 sdev: 0.317811 Number of hands dealt: 2000. CPU time usage [sec]: 6.12 (x8 threads). Note, in response to your request for info on my earlier assumptions with rather broader range of hands than a single prototype here they are return S:spades()>5 and S:S():hcp()>5 and S:hcp()>14/16 (depending on hcp/total point assumptions) -- and S:clubs()<2 (if I put a splinter in) 6+ spades and 6+ HCPs in spades (eg AQ, KQJ min etc) I could of course further constrain my assumptions if you like in order to confirm (or at least provide evidence to back up) your expert opinion :) Failing that I will just save time and not bother playing with (my humble toy) sims and just put your assessment into my results :) begin sim if hrothgar.hasOpinionOn(hand) then return hrothgar.getassessment(hand) else return runSim(hand) end if end sim

Intermediate possum bids 4S 1. Loser count doesnt indicate slam but good chance of game 2. Law indicates 10 tricks 3. Possum Sim (Intermediate Version 0.1.35) indicates more than 10 tricks is unlikely 4. Pre-empt and don't give opps a chance 5. Majority responses to poll suggest 4S There is always the chance I guess that a pass is ok and LHO holds all spades and decent controls and passes for penalty. Even a reoduble but I wouldn't risk leaving that to go round - it would be good though :) I suppose there is always the chance of rejoining later, competing and getting doubled for pen. These rather depend on scoring method being used and Possum Sim doesnt yet take account of vulnerability and scoring 2S+2 redoubled would be good but would they let me make it :) Changing my vote to pass and rejoin and compete - hoping for a penalty double but.....an immediate 4S removes much of the risk or missing out

Currently in hiding for a while but here are some Sim results which kind of back up any side of the argument (using bdeal). Not really good enough for me to bid past game but each to their own :) Assumptions by North of South's hand Sim 1: 15+ HCPs and splinter clubs (Gib doesnt know), 6+ spade points Mean spade tricks by S: 23105 / 2000 = 11.5525 An 0.0446834 (95% conf.) min: 8 max: 13 sdev: 1.01894 chance to win 1S by S: 2000 / 2000 = 1 An 0 (95% conf.) min: 1 max: 1 sdev: 0 chance to win 2S by S: 2000 / 2000 = 1 An 0 (95% conf.) min: 1 max: 1 sdev: 0 chance to win 3S by S: 1997 / 2000 = 0.9985 An 0.00169713 (95% conf.) min: 0 max: 1 sdev: 0.0387008 chance to win 4S by S: 1951 / 2000 = 0.9755 An 0.00677942 (95% conf.) min: 0 max: 1 sdev: 0.154595 chance to win 5S by S: 1710 / 2000 = 0.855 An 0.0154406 (95% conf.) min: 0 max: 1 sdev: 0.352101 chance to win 6S by S: 1053 / 2000 = 0.5265 An 0.0218955 (95% conf.) min: 0 max: 1 sdev: 0.499297 Number of hands dealt: 621821. CPU time usage [sec]: 34.34 (x8 threads). Sim 2: 15+ HCPs and no splinter assumption, 6+ spade points Mean spade tricks by S: 22700 / 2000 = 11.35 An 0.046791 (95% conf.) min: 7 max: 13 sdev: 1.06701 chance to win 1S by S: 2000 / 2000 = 1 An 0 (95% conf.) min: 1 max: 1 sdev: 0 chance to win 2S by S: 1999 / 2000 = 0.9995 An 0.000980331 (95% conf.) min: 0 max: 1 sdev: 0.0223551 chance to win 3S by S: 1987 / 2000 = 0.9935 An 0.00352401 (95% conf.) min: 0 max: 1 sdev: 0.0803601 chance to win 4S by S: 1920 / 2000 = 0.96 An 0.00859333 (95% conf.) min: 0 max: 1 sdev: 0.195959 chance to win 5S by S: 1590 / 2000 = 0.795 An 0.0177034 (95% conf.) min: 0 max: 1 sdev: 0.403702 chance to win 6S by S: 906 / 2000 = 0.453 An 0.0218293 (95% conf.) min: 0 max: 1 sdev: 0.497786 Number of hands dealt: 191328. CPU time usage [sec]: 28.02 (x8 threads). Sim 3: 17+ HCPs and no splinter assumption, 6+ spade points Mean spade tricks by S: 23412 / 2000 = 11.706 An 0.0436453 (95% conf.) min: 7 max: 13 sdev: 0.995271 chance to win 1S by S: 2000 / 2000 = 1 An 0 (95% conf.) min: 1 max: 1 sdev: 0 chance to win 2S by S: 1999 / 2000 = 0.9995 An 0.000980331 (95% conf.) min: 0 max: 1 sdev: 0.0223551 chance to win 3S by S: 1997 / 2000 = 0.9985 An 0.00169713 (95% conf.) min: 0 max: 1 sdev: 0.0387008 chance to win 4S by S: 1959 / 2000 = 0.9795 An 0.00621406 (95% conf.) min: 0 max: 1 sdev: 0.141703 chance to win 5S by S: 1791 / 2000 = 0.8955 An 0.0134149 (95% conf.) min: 0 max: 1 sdev: 0.305908 chance to win 6S by S: 1187 / 2000 = 0.5935 An 0.0215396 (95% conf.) min: 0 max: 1 sdev: 0.49118 Number of hands dealt: 626902. CPU time usage [sec]: 35.11 (x8 threads). Note. I think An is two (1.96??) standard errors (funny character in my command window)

"Thanks to everyone who answered seriously. I really enjoyed all the nice constructive posts (EDIT until now)." Then to make matters worse the usual suspects come in with some arrogant patronising comments to defend a ***** bid by their Bot and try to humiliate a poster. Its kind of a tag team strategy and certain characters pretend they are reasonable and decent but are part of the bullying crowd Come on both of you. This is me you are talking to not some moron Check out the last 18 months of posts ruined on this place and some of the same charcaters will come in after the bullying has started and pretend to be reasonable. All part of their sick act. Check out all the posts on this site, the constant attack and bullying and rudeness against allcomers, the arrogance, suggestions posters don't know what they are talking about. The tage team, group bullying and humilation. etc. etc. etc Anyone who reads these threads knows the obnoxious people by now PS As usual the thread isn't even about your stupid bot, yet you constantly dredge it up. Any excuse or opportunity to upset someone yes. Nobody with half a brain would bid 6 spades there

As others have indicated (thanks for all the advice) this hand was not strong enough or well suited for a Soloway SJS since you end up in a slam (Spades, Diamonds, No trumps) all of which are a disaster. Best contract was 3NT but at least I wasn't alone ending in Spades - I would have been happy with 4S - nothelped playing with GiB which figures a void in trumps is a good slam chance :( However my 6S-many (miraculously undoubled) scored better than 4SX-2 at another table :) If you could get to 3NT that was the go. All I can say it that due to no good judgement on my part this was one of the few hands in tihs set of hands where me and GiB (and USA 1) bettered Italy :) [hv=pc=n&s=saqj742hq764da8c3&w=skt9853ht5djckq84&n=shaj2dkq963cajt92&e=s6hk983dt7542c765&d=n&v=e&b=9&a=1dp2sp3cp3sp6s(LOL)ppp]399|300[/hv] PS I must say I am disappointed that a very interesting thread about Soloways has been ruined yetagain by a stupid comment from someone. Par for the course in tho place. Almost every thread I have posted over the last 18 months has been ruined by some ignorant disrepsectful moronic comment from someone :( Thanks to everyone who answered seriously. I really enjoyed all the nice constructive posts.

Unfortunately I'm not good enough to have been picked for the Bermuda Bowl yet. This was my bid :)

Hi everyone Despite having played GiB 2/1 (including Soloways) for almost 18 months, they are still quite a mystery to me. I'm still trying to get a handle on the rebids and sequences and whether or not I have used them appropriately - starting to discover there are occasions I have used one with an inappropriate shape/strength The following hand caused some problems finding the right contract - me and GiB playing from an archived Bermuda bowl match. (Edited to avoid confusion, although one BB team ended up in Spades too - but mine and GiB's contract was worse than the BB team :( ) I would be grateful for any comments [hv=pc=n&s=saqj742hq764da8c3&d=n&v=e&b=9&a=1d(3%2B%20D%2011%2B%20HCPs)p2s(Attempted Soloway%2017%2B%20total%20points%2C%20rebiddable%20S)p3c(KQ%20Clubs)p]133|200[/hv] I had thought I was almost strong enough and planned to show the splinter in clubs. However you need support for diamonds. This left showing my spades again or bidding 3NT. I rebid spades which didn't work out well. Thanks for any comments and guidance on Soloways. P

Hi there Just writing with some support for this thread and the other about apparent changes in deals over recent month or two (approx). I have been playing ACBL and BBO best hand for a year and a half. Recently there appears to have been a change in the nature of the hands to be somewhat articifical toy hands. However, I appreciate this is highly complex and given the discussions I could be biased in noticing them. But....at least I am not alone in observing an apparent change. It is getting somewhat annoying to have paid for these tournaments regards P PS I'm sure they still are likely to pass the randomness tests - how can you prove they don't. However extremely contrived hands are no fun at all!