thepossum

Hi David I was just suggesting you were in full on analysis mode with access to a database of hands :) I am interested in any serious discussion of Bridge statistics with anyone who has a clue Some earlier attempts at raising the complexity of Bridge distributions and analysis have fallen on deaf ears Hopefully what I was getting at covered some of what you and Richard are getting at I haven't been motivated enough to get Double Dummy solver working with Mr Pavlicek's database Is it possible to compare all 6 spade (oops a bit limiting -every 6M contract) contracts and auctions at a particular level of expertise Thanks for the comment - encouraging to know I am not totally off in an irrelevant direction Note some of my thoughts were likely influenced by Matthew too but etc How do we drill down and work it out :) But my view which I likely did not communicate well is that (from my statistical and Bridge knowledge) identifying such an effect could be difficult - even if broken down by skill and tournament type and other forms of control :) To me having tried to get to grips over the last 6 years or so with the complexity of Bridge anaylsis its an interesting challenge - to even define the problem - crude estimator. Every 6M hand in Mr Pavilecek's data by skill level and tournament type and how it turned out by number of bids EDIT I could be overcomplicating it. Take all the hands for the world teams and compare scores to number of bids - the IMPs/Bid metric - the only way I can possibly get a grip on the amount of control required - I imagine all the teams have their different coaching teams (offensive nd defensive) including an analytics team and a video analysis team - very secret too I imagine Meeting with the senior coach - you need to reduce your number of bids by an average of 0.25 per hand and stop wiggling your little finger when nervous

Thanks to all those who understood the question. It was about focus and not about knowledge or competence When you watch people at the top level of any sport. Some keep shooting themselves in the foot

Deleted again thanks

Thanks for letting me know Was a bit nervous getting involved in any tournaments with other pairs having GiB as partner until someone assured me everything is alerted You get a bit bored constantly playing the robot tourneys and best hand gets tedious too after a while But reading your post makes me think you are talking about the Robot only daylongs/pairs. You have experience playing in human pairs tournaments with GiB Anyone know if any pairs a reputation for being more or less friendly than others - that is another consideration - to play with other relaxed and friendly people Also kindly don't make any insinuation that my concerns relate to anything underhand. I did take the "you" to refer to others though - I must admit though I understand wanting to win something important at all costs. Like a world championship. Not some insignificant little tourney - that would be worth risking upsetting people Quite the opposite for me though. I am trying to avoid unnecessary misunderstanding and unpleasantness. Maybe I move in different circles with different objectives to most of the rest of you. I will take your statement about winning at all costs to relate to some others on this site and in clubs. Please don't tar me by association with that brush The very fact you mentioned it is a reason why I am forced to avoid most clubs and human tournaments - who wants that unpleasantness. Maybe the world has changed One of the first things I learned many decades ago were the ethics and philosophy of fairness at a Bridge table - but the whole world has changed on aspects of fairness and ethics anywhere Some of us also learned or were brought up with pleasant and polite behaviour. That includes being nice and polite to people who let us down too - or just in general being polite to each other. That has changed worldwide too Can you or anyone else recommend a human pairs tourney that allows robot partners that also has a standard or reputation of fair play, politeness and tolerance for errors. Or are there friendly Team tourneys full of pleasant sporting people happy for friendly dropins. Maybe I should just risk one and see what abuse comes flying my way :) What does the restriction "No enemies" mean? Is Churros friendly? I'm going to risk one and see :) Can anyone explain how a torunament works that allows 40 secondns per bid/play with only 5 minutes per board :) - my basic maths suggests only 7.5 binds and plays on average per board

We are all obsolete

How about an even more basic estimator :) - but there are some rather obvious confounds, and how many things would you need to control for in reality - maybe compare the number of bids in every slam contract or something like that - see if there is any effect at all - maybe controlling with similar tournament types and lengths too - but I suspect any effect would be hard to isolate Maybe ask David atm :) - come to think of it where is he - drowned under all his scripts perhaps Just a thought though about possible confounds, maybe also restrict it to a large database of experts playing top tournaments - not being one myself I am of the view that fewer bidding options and less complex systems are beneficial - with obvious confounds - you gave them far too much information with all those confused bids. I'm not sure you could isolate my hypothesised effect either - they could see you didn't have a clue but were probably better anyway. That is why I try to bluff my way with a direct and pre-emptive style Will follow the discussion with interest :)

Me: Hello again ChaptGPT:: Etc How can I help etc Me: do you know anything about old British movies ChatpGTP: Yes followed by long unnecessary list of classic old movies Me:Do you know about the game Bridge ChatGPT:Yes, followed by long unnecessary description of Bridge Me: Do you know any old BRitish movies including people playing Bridge on a ship ChaptGPT: Yes, I do know of a classic British movie with people playing bridge on a ship. The movie is called "The Bridge on the River Kwai" (1957), directed by David Lean and starring Alec Guinness and William Holden. While the movie primarily focuses on the construction of a bridge by prisoners of war in Burma during World War II, there is a memorable scene on board a Japanese ship where the officers play bridge with each other. The game is used as a metaphor for the conflict between the two sides, with the Japanese officers using their strategic skills to outmaneuver their opponents, just as they are trying to do in the larger war. "The Bridge on the River Kwai" is widely considered one of the greatest films ever made and won several Academy Awards, including Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Actor for Alec Guinness.

I know that :) I have no idea why I keep making typos - I put it down mostly to tecnology(sic - not sure if required) - maybe also bad eyesight, being constantly stressed and interrupted by endless distractions. Who knows

What is the reason for not bidding 1 spade? - what does 2 spades mean? EDIT silly me that's a jump reverse. No idea what that means Is 1 spade a reverse? or you need some other way to show a good hand Would 2NT work? Now to read the thread and what the experts say. I try to be unbiased by expert opinion when I comment - as I am sure is obvious EDIT Still reading the thread and I think people overcomplicate Bridge EDIT 2 After 1 NT do you bid 2NT or 3NT - what does responder have? I know things became more complicated after I learned Bridge

[hv=https://www.bridgebase.com/tools/handviewer.html?lin=st||pn|thepossum,~Mwest,~Mnorth,~Meast|md|2SAK7HJ86DK74CQT74,ST9864HQT75DA3C85,SQJ52HA2DJT8CA632,S3HK943DQ9652CKJ9|sv|o|rh||ah|Board%208|mb|P|mb|1C|an|Minor%20suit%20opening%20--%203+%20!C;%2011-21%20HCP;%2012-22%20total%20points|mb|1D|an|One-level%20overcall%20--%205+%20!D;%208-17%20HCP;%209-19%20total%20points|mb|2N|an|Invitational%20to%203NT%20game%20--%203-%20!H;%203-%20!S;%2011-12%20HCP;%20stop%20in%20!D|mb|P|mb|P|mb|P|pc|DA|pc|D8|pc|D2|pc|D4|pc|H5|pc|H2|pc|HK|pc|H6|pc|H9|pc|H8|pc|H7|pc|HA|pc|SQ|pc|S3|pc|S7|pc|S4|pc|DJ|pc|D6|pc|D7|pc|D3|pc|S2|pc|C9|pc|SK|pc|S8|pc|DK|pc|C8|pc|DT|pc|DQ|pc|SA|pc|ST|pc|S5|pc|D9|pc|CT|pc|C5|pc|CA|pc|CJ|pc|SJ|pc|H3|pc|C4|pc|S9|pc|C2|pc|CK|pc|C7|pc|S6|pc|D5|pc|CQ|pc|HT|pc|C3|pc|H4|pc|HJ|pc|HQ|pc|C6|]400|300[/hv] For a very poor IMP score - above is me If you bid 3NT the West bot kindly obliges on trick 2 with a switch to hearts for 3NT+1 :) EDIT sorry it switched to hearts for me and maintained diamonds for everyone else - sometimes get my DD back to front Always the West bot I imagine the stats back up a 3NT bid but seeing the double dummy was some consolation -sometimes you can try to be too clever on last hand of an IMP tourney Bidding and just making 2NT led to something of a disappointing traveller :( I psyched the bot by understating my hand by 1 point :( or others psyched it by bidding accurately I do understand there is a small part trick premium on DD for imperfect defence - especially against the West bot which has form for occasional error Can any of the assembled brains trust advise why I was not the recipient of such error in this case :( Sadly if you do an error calculation it made an erroneous non-switch for the vast majority of hands too (85% error rate approximately)

If intelligence relates to solving simple puzzles, answering questions promptly, and being able occasionally to write half passable text Having said that I have had some interactions and measured/conditional advice from ChaptGPT recently that is more intelligent than post humans I have interacted with recently However our last initial counselling session suggests that ChatGPT has some very serious identity and personality problems that it may need help with. Seriously down on itself too. Sad. It seemed very hard to break through and see progress at all But it was only one short session so far All such discussions and considerations of AI can head off into very dodgy territory very quickly, assuming we weren't already in enough trouble on that score And what is also scary is how we can witness the questionnable powers at be trying to fill the whole world with a very dodgy narrative I've been watching Max Headroom videos to cheer me up

When do we get to see the hand - how is a 3S pre-empt looking :) -aren't other players starting to look at their watches?

Coming back after not wanting to be first to comment I considered a pass :) ...but will now read all the expert comments PS For all the scetpics that is the truth I was just too scared to suggest it I don't like 2NT. I don't like 3D. Pass ???? Sad that I was one of the first to view it before anyone had commented and I know its a bidders' game Counterfactuals are what they are. Pass is the genuine truth I considered. I don't care if anyone believes me because it is counterfactual 3H ?? still reading

Every time there is a biggish(??????) tourney and I see a few hands out of them that seriously let me down I try to analyse what went wrong Oh yes. I knew I did that wrong at the time Or how did I miss that Or that is so obvious How did that happen etc Or no matter how hard I try it keeps happening etc How do you improve and iron out the obvious bad stuff

PS Apologies I have been trying hard to moderate getting upset at seemingly being repeatedly singled out for special attention But if I have to do that who is controlling who I am presently running a sim on my hand which makes two nice games and an overtrick given Norths extras I am curious about the possible wrongsiding for leads - although I accept the Kings provide some cover in that regard EDIT a few stats from a Sim which show that most hands with 8+ points make either NT or Spade game (87% spades, 86% NT. 10.4 NT tricks, 10.8 spade tricks) Approximately 2/3 of all hands opposite my 2C will make a NT or spade game Over to you Happy to post my results but its all rather dull stuff A weak double negative we stop one short of game - I don't know if GiB does that though - that is another topic I mean to ask about Several times cheaper minor (bust?) forcing to (and hopefully stopping at ) the 3 level is followed by a raise to game? Its a strange paradox being somewhat light gives a better chance of partner offering something :)

19+ HCPs I count 19 Back to the point people I could have predicted this attack from you all 23 is distribution which I accept it is short on but it's a basic game force which makes a simple game Why does the bot start counting distribution points as HCPs when I ask a question Also when are you all going to stop insulting me All of a sudden some so called expert distorts 19 HCPs to 23 Hope their students are reading Back to Bridge and trusting our partners to be able to count and understand the importance of HCPs in a NT contract. I accept distribution can help but not in a quant situation Would you trust a partner who jumped to 6NT when we are still negotiating a game Yet again I will request that the troublesome repay offenders on the forum stops deliberately jumping on my threads and ruining my mornings and playing into the hands of my gaslighters Is it a bug or do other bridge players suddenly give me aces I never promised I have a tip to less experienced readers. If your partner needs 23 HCPs to open 2C find a better partner. I will accept I may be a slightly light and preemptive bidder but my game stats in such openings back up my decision

No need to be snarky like that What is it with you all Somebody has a go at me and I'm the problem It's a serious thread and they are constantly undermined by someone I stand by what I said Almost every likely contract went down one trick double dummy But it appears a deliberate tactic against me for someone to jump on an irrelevant aside and destroy the thread Do you not think some of us are dealing with enough bad**** and obnoxious people in our day to day lives without people here contributing

[hv=https://www.bridgebase.com/tools/handviewer.html?lin=st||pn|thepossum,~Mwest,~Mnorth,~Meast|md|1SQJT54HQ7DAKCAQJ4,S7HAT952DJ9653C73,SK32HKJ8DT84CK852,SA986H643DQ72CT96|sv|b|rh||ah|Board%207|mb|2C|an|Strong%20two%20club%20--%2019+%20HCP;%2023+%20total%20points;%20forcing%20to%202N|mb|P|mb|2N|an|Positive%20notrump%20--%202-5%20!C;%202-5%20!D;%202-4%20!H;%202-4%20!S;%208+%20HCP|mb|P|mb|3S|an|5+%20!S;%2019+%20HCP;%2023+%20total%20points|mb|P|mb|6N|an|2-5%20!C;%202-5%20!D;%202-4%20!H;%202-4%20!S;%2014-16%20HCP|mb|P|mb|P|mb|P|pc|H3|pc|HQ|pc|HA|pc|H8|pc|H9|pc|HK|pc|H6|pc|H7|mc|11|]400|300[/hv] Disappointing really I know I know. Is not HCPs its whatever the other points are :) But I was under the impression that quantitatively determined NT slams were HCP based :( To be fair it was very close to making :(

Can I offer an observation or question regarding the only one of David's analyses I have really looked at, including even replicating the script - NT invite or blast one Its a broader observation or question about many more specific or possibly over fitted sims There did not appear to be very much of a distribution - in the sense of the scores being highly dominated by one score - sorry difference (eg zero from memory) - what can be truly concerning though is when the confidence intervals do not include 0 or other likely numbers If you look at cumulative distributions and quantiles they may be more instructive than basing everything on means That's a question or consideration I have about all DD sims actually We happily go around working out means which even have confidence intervals including many(infinite) impossible scores - eg 95% chance of -0.003 +/- 0.12 etc :) How many hands would we have to play to get a real and genuinely significant effect too Maybe its more about looking for the best upsides or avoiding the worst downsides One thing I have noticed though is how often obviously good leads score best in lead sims :)

It would be good to be able to select robot bids Failing that play real Bridge with a half decent human Regarding Cappelletti my evidence suggests it may be better for Rubber than Duplicate

Maybe but you may end in 4D and have to bid 5 C It was called a rhetorical statement and a bit of fun too Do we really have to quibble about such things - every contract bid (and those suggested above) were likely to go down 1 trick double dummy with a few weird exceptions - like making 5C+2 :) I still think the winning bid would have been 1NT :)

I reckon all Bridge players should be encouraged to be themselves :)

No. All the likely (and actually bid) part scores too :) Strangely the EW contact that was bid - 3H - also goes down 1 double dummy :) Actual scores may vary - like the poor soul who risked 3NT and ended in 6NT-4 or the lucky person in 5C+2 Just thinking - maybe a psychy 1NT could have worked :)

Will follow all this work with interest :) One I am considering ATM is when if ever Cappelletti pays What we need is to hook ChatGPT up as a natural language interface (EDITED - useless predictive text or some weird dyslexic condition) to all David's scripts :)

Thanks for all the comments and discussion This is the hand which should in theory have been 5C-1 but due to a favourable lead gave me all the tricks - I claim no credit for this good fortune Other auctions ended in 4D-1 or if South and North elected to defend were able to defend 3H-2 by East Who knows how it would have ended up with 4 good bidders :) I can't tell you what would have happened after 2NT - I suspect North would have bid 3NT for 3NT-1 [hv=https://www.bridgebase.com/tools/handviewer.html?lin=st||pn|thepossum,~~M3743,~~M3741,~~M3742|md|2SJ65HT4DAKCAKQJT8,SAKQ74HJ92DTC7652,ST92HAKDJ987653C4,S83HQ87653DQ42C93|sv|o|rh||ah|Board%208|mb|P|mb|P|mb|P|mb|5C|an|biddable%20!C|mb|P|mb|P|mb|P|pc|DT|pc|DJ|pc|D2|pc|DK|pc|CA|pc|C2|pc|C4|pc|C3|pc|CK|pc|C6|pc|D3|pc|C9|pc|CQ|pc|C7|pc|S2|pc|H8|pc|CJ|pc|C5|pc|S9|pc|H3|pc|DA|pc|S4|pc|D5|pc|D4|mc|13|]400|300[/hv]