thepossum

My attempts at making any sense of this issue are still at the earlier stages but I have worked out the chances of opening in each seat and trying to rule out a balancing NT - which strangely has a big impact - but since the chance of being in balancing seat is fairly small (my fudge factors came up with around 5% chance of balancing) who knows - probably almost non-existent with the way many people bid these days - like ruling out a multi (I just wanted to bid anything) By my reckoning the average number of clubs in your hand drops from seat 1 to 3 then increases in seat 4 :) - with similar patterns in chance of 2 clubs (not much diff in 1 to 3 but definitely in seat 4) EDIT QUick clarification - I am talking the chance of opening 1 club in each seat :)

ok thanks I am only here trying to replicate :) Maybe the earlier seats depend on who your opps are

I have an observation followed some possibly interesting preliminary results Nobody has discussed the impact of seat position which I find strange On initial analysis (and missing lots of other conditions) it you seated 2nd after a pass the chance of 2 clubs goes up Of course I haven't incorporated the obvious condition discussed above about what you have in your hand and whether it matters how many clubs your partner has - which is obviously a more systemic and game theoretic consideration which I will leave to the experts EDIT I am trying to incorporate preempts and cover all different seat positions As a nobody with half a brain isn't the point that you have some way to express your hand strength and shape vaguely accurately I am sitting on approximately 5% replicating the above script - does that sound right - and does it matter and is it worth my time? Lets simplify and assume opening bid is seat one. Then you get 1.25%. Am I right? - plus if it is seat two plus if it seat 3 plus if it seat 4 and I am looking at my own hand minus the chance that everyone has passed and I have all the cards too etc

To avoid risk of annoying people -when I simply found an amusing curiosity Here is the hand :lol: Plus 11 IMPs - I know I am resulting and all evidence to date points to me not taking the Expert line [hv=https://www.bridgebase.com/tools/handviewer.html?lin=st||pn|thepossum,~Mwest,~Mnorth,~Meast|md|1ST8HTDKJ9863CAQJ8,S62HA865432DT75CK,SQJ53HQ97DAQ2CT94,SAK974HKJD4C76532|sv|e|rh||ah|Board%203|mb|1D|an|Minor%20suit%20opening%20--%203+%20!D;%2011-21%20HCP;%2012-22%20total%20points|mb|2H|an|Aggressive%20weak%20jump%20overcall%20--%206+%20!H;%204-10%20HCP|mb|D|an|Negative%20double%20--%204+%20!S;%207+%20HCP;%208+%20total%20points|mb|2S|an|14+%20total%20points;%20forcing%20to%203H|mb|3C|an|4+%20!C;%204+%20!D;%203-%20!S;%2021-%20HCP;%2015-22%20total%20points|mb|P|mb|3N|an|4-%20!H;%204-5%20!S;%2012-19%20HCP;%20stop%20in%20!H|mb|P|mb|P|mb|P|pc|HK|pc|HT|pc|H6|pc|H7|pc|HJ|pc|S8|pc|H8|pc|HQ|pc|DA|pc|D4|pc|D3|pc|D5|pc|CT|pc|C2|pc|CA|pc|CK|mc|11|]400|300[/hv]

Seemingly I am still at beginner level - I thought the odds weren't good enough to finesse and played for just 1 down - I envisioned West with a lot of hearts including the Ace and quite possibly the King of clubs - adding up to a lot of tricks. Quite possibly even a small spade to lead back to East - there was something I hadn't envisioned though. All will be revealed I should have added that Weak overcalls by West tend not to be super light - theoretically 6-10 HCPs. Easts bid was accurate distributionally Yes Pescetom. East is a robot who managed to fool a lot of players :) Maybe the odds work if you run a Sim over many replications but I think a more conservative 3 diamond contract was better EDIT I am trying to run a Sim and strangely my concern over possible downsides didn't show up in many thousands of hands -EW fooling a DD sim too - I may ask to move this to another forum - unless of course it doesn't play the finesse - maybe we have found a flaw in DD analysis :)

I am not putting this up to gloat but out of surprise IMPs tourney You end in a possibly unwise looking 3NT. East leads with King then Jack of hearts which you win in hand (sorry edited upside down - how do you turn the diagram upside down) with the Queen How would you play to minimise any damage or risk It seemed beginner level to me but obviously not to the rest of the field - maybe the odds work [hv=pc=n&s=st8htdkj9863caqj8&n=sqj53hq97daq2ct94&d=s&v=e&b=3&a=1d2h(Weak%206%2B%20hearts)d(4%2B%20spades)2s(Forcing%2014%2B%20TPs)3c(4%2BC%204%2B%20D%2015%2B%20TPs%20)p3n(Stop%20in%20Hearts)ppp]300|200[/hv]

Apparently we have another media (and other interests) attempt to tarnish people who have experienced mental illness as violent Fortunately there are people with more accreditation (not necessarily knowledge) than me who feel the same way Some of us do get heartily sick of it all (and the carnage of so many innocents), especially when there is so much ignorance (and possible conspiracy - did I say that) on the matter and attempts to cover so many dimensions up - who knows who the interests are behind it all? So who are they all? Why the need to silence truth so often? Another community hurt, many more innocent victims. Much more grist to so many people's mill. So much so they would likely attack me for politicising the matter Why are so many apparently complicit in silencing open and honest discussion on the matter But I will nail my colours to the mast. Guns do not kill and mental illness does not kill, what else doesn't kill. Psychosis. Being a loner. Taking medications. AI. Robots - unless designed to do so with a bug etc I forgot. How about extremist politics. Maybe there are some who go a bit too far in the obnoxious desire to cause trouble and pain and conflict and ignorance Before someone jumps on me. This is for the victims Do the people really think all the perps of such terrorist (style) atrocities around the world are off-their heads losers With all due respect to yet more victims (killed, irreparably harmed, traumatised etc) I just am seeing yet one more disgusting meaningless handwringing exercise from that side of the pacific. All useful for some though You can accuse some of us of conspiracy theories. Would you say that to a detective looking at people's interests and motives. Follow the money maybe - that's one common approach. Other's too. Common MO. All kinds of detective stuff that lead to some of us being labelled conspiracy theorists. Who benefits from terror and fear and ignorance etc Look at all the possible interests and motives. Some of us find it hard not to try to make links. The way some extremist stuff seems able to be turned on and off like a tap. And these are all unpredictable lone wolf mentally deranged losers we are talking about - apparently. Any competent and dare I say intelligent investigator looks at who stands to gain from the constant and repeated narrative. Also I think after almost a lifetime (in my case) of this rubbish none of those wringing their hands have any credence left. Here I may start to sound totally crazy to some. Maybe its just an emergent property of complex systems. Maybe its also highly intended and planned that some places need to be this extreme and constantly violent and unjust. I think I can confidently speak for most of the world (including the USA) that some of us keep scratching our heads But (with due respect and apology to those cruelly hurt) some of us have so much knowledge (if not certification) of the corruption of certain interest groups that we have no doubt why some narratives (and even events) keep happening. People like me also run serious risk of various argument fallacies being used against us. Simply for expressing our concerns. Even having to mention certification or lack of is an argument fallacy is it not? Many who would have a go over such matters at expertise would/should know that often what constitutes evidence is based on very flimsy effect sizes (and confidence) indeed. If they don't I can question their competence. Some of us also believe in freedom and all it entails too though - does it not require accurate information to function correctly. Some get in the way of information. The eternal contradiction Apologies for being triggered people - maybe not by what you think - but maybe that is the intent of some And maybe it is their interests to keep the world obsessing and talking about another excess in one small part of the world - while the rest of the world suffers extremes every day

We ended in a Lebensohl 3H-1 for a small plus :) Remarkable luck Only one table managed to trick the declarer into giving up a trick in Spades I felt rather unsure and that anything could have happened after a double Note 2NT also goes -1 [hv=https://www.bridgebase.com/tools/handviewer.html?lin=st||pn|thepossum,~~M52738,~~M52736,~~M52737|md|2SAQ852HT98DKQ9CKJ,SKJT976HQ4DA52C76,S43HJ765DJT83CA43,SHAK32D764CQT9852|sv|o|rh||ah|Board%208|mb|2S|an|Weak%20two%20bid%20--%201-4%20!C;%201-3%20!D;%201-3%20!H;%206+%20!S;%2010-%20HCP;%207+%20total%20points%20|mb|P|mb|P|mb|D|an|3+%20!C;%203+%20!D;%204+%20!H;%2012+%20total%20points|mb|P|mb|2N!|an|Lebensohl%20-%20Forces%203C%20by%20partner%20--%209-%20total%20points%20|mb|P|mb|3C|an|Transfer%20completed%20--%203+%20!C;%203+%20!D;%204+%20!H;%2012-18%20total%20points|mb|P|mb|3H|an|4+%20!H;%209-%20total%20points%20|mb|P|mb|P|mb|P|pc|CT|pc|CJ|pc|C6|pc|C3|pc|H8|pc|HQ|pc|H5|pc|H3|pc|H4|pc|H6|pc|HK|pc|HT|pc|HA|pc|H9|pc|S7|pc|H7|pc|C2|pc|CK|pc|C7|pc|C4|pc|DK|pc|D2|pc|D3|pc|D4|pc|DQ|pc|DA|pc|D8|pc|D6|pc|D5|pc|DT|pc|D7|pc|D9|pc|CA|pc|CQ|pc|S2|pc|S6|pc|HJ|pc|H2|pc|S5|pc|SJ|pc|DJ|pc|C5|pc|S8|pc|S9|pc|S3|pc|C8|pc|SA|pc|ST|pc|SQ|pc|SK|pc|S4|pc|C9|]400|300[/hv]

I appreciate there are possible confounding issues with eyesight but most of the time spectacles do not help when playing computer Bridge (my case) I had a very embarassing contract recently. Doesn't happen often but being in 3 clubs when half the field is in 6 spades is embarassing I was trying to force to slam myself - we didn't even get to game :)

thx - only useful and meaningful to another similar robot :) I am generally very interested in clustering and thematic analysis of text, and dimension reduction, and finding meaningful descriptors for things I am finding reading about relay fascinating from a hypothetical standpoint but it would overload my small brain capacity My IT is probably even more rusty. I was hoping I may learn something

[hv=pc=n&s=saq852ht98dkq9ckj&d=w&v=0&b=8&a=2s(weak%206%20spades)pp]133|200[/hv] I went for an offshape double and waited in trepidation for it to be passed IMPs these days of course

Any mention of the embedded media "agents" or provocateurs�� As for partisan rubbish in the media - that other character - what's his name who just resigned or was sacked - he would not exactly be what's that character's name stuck on an island - and in some ways much of the other partisan rubbish is even more scary because so many in power reckon its the truth - unlike what's his name who we all know spoke rubbish regularly

Curious that the small spade is the killer :)

Remarkably sad and funny (I could add cruel to the poor unwanted robot) But you win the price for marketing thread titles Let's hope robots never develop intelligence shall we EDITED out unnecessary stuff

I made the wrong call anyway and the defence in this case was fairly straightforward. I am a friendly polite person who asked a polite and friendly question as always First bid was takeout or negative whatever - double up to game level are takeout - after that whatever. Below game they mean bid something usually a suit not yet bid Second was how you choose to take it. I took it to have chances either way which there were. 1 trick. It actually scored positive either way too Good luck to one of the regular bullies trying to tell me the system I have played for years - but I was asking for some friendly chat not a fight. But you tell me what that bid means - it could be either like I said. Thanks to those who gave me their kind considerations rather than taking opportunity to have a go :) there was no need for anyone to be unnecessarily aggressive or obnoxious. The only reason I occasionally ask some people to leave me alone is that they have a problem they need to deal with. Learn manners and politeness and you can talk to me. I was accused wrongly of attacking people offering advice but why should I put up with unnecessary attacks like above :( [HV=https://www.bridgebase.com/tools/handviewer.html?lin=st||pn|thepossum,~~M13185,~~M13183,~~M13184|md|4S2HAJ43DK73CAJT75,SKT975HK6DJT64CK9,SAH9852DAQ982CQ43,SQJ8643HQT7D5C862|sv|b|rh||ah|Board%2010|mb|P|mb|1C|an|Minor%20suit%20opening%20--%203+%20!C;%2011-21%20HCP;%2012-22%20total%20points|mb|1S|an|One-level%20overcall%20--%205+%20!S;%208-17%20HCP;%209-19%20total%20points%20|mb|D|an|Negative%20double%20--%204+%20!H;%205+%20HCP;%206+%20total%20points%20|mb|4S|an|Unbalanced%20--%205+%20!S;%2011-%20HCP;%206-12%20total%20points%20|mb|P|mb|P|mb|D|an|4+%20!H;%2012+%20HCP;%2013+%20total%20points%20|mb|P|mb|5H|an|3+%20!C;%2011-21%20HCP;%20biddable%20!H;%2012-22%20total%20points|mb|P|mb|P|mb|P|pc|DJ|pc|DA|pc|D5|pc|D3|pc|H2|pc|H7|pc|H3|pc|HK|pc|D6|pc|D2|pc|HT|pc|D7|pc|C6|pc|CA|pc|C9|pc|C3|pc|S2|pc|S5|pc|SA|pc|S8|pc|H5|pc|HQ|pc|HA|pc|H6|pc|HJ|pc|ST|pc|H8|pc|S6|pc|C7|pc|CK|pc|C4|pc|C2|pc|S9|pc|H9|pc|S4|pc|C5|mc|10|]400|300[/HV]

All of us going with the field so the minus score was fairly small - still annoying Sadly as I will show the 9HCPs was only two Aces - but Sims still show a chance of a positive score on average over time - biased of course by the Vulnerable game no doubt I am just upset I did not go with my gut feeling for a simple positive score on the last hand - and a few nice extra IMPs :) Maybe this should be moved to the other forum now. Apologies. However I was genuinely interested with the considerations and am genuinely relieved that I went with the majority - is there not some game strategy where going against the field occasionally can be a winner

Hi all Last hand of IMPs tourney, doing well, looking for another positive score to finish and you are dealt this, red vs white etc [hv=pc=n&s=sa2hkj2daq72cqt95&d=w&v=n&b=12&a=ppp1n(15-17)p2c(stayman)p2dp2n(9%20points%20-%20invite)p]133|200[/hv] My instinct told me to pass and guarantee positive points at least, but decided to go for the IMPs and bid 3NT-1 for a smallish but annoying negative score Simulations suggest that 3NT is the right bid on average over time - over many such hands - with a decent positive score hopefully What do you reckon. Am I resulting too much. Are there any clues in the hand to guide you

There have been many occasions where I felt second round or RKCB was problematic and I would have preferred a simple King count I was brought up on standard which is still simpler and less error prone - but am happy looking for the King and Queen of trumps :) One other problem - there are a few sequences where RKCB seems to push you unnecessarily too high - maybe that's just how it is incorrectly used by some I am curious though at players trying for slam when a suit hasn't been agreed - that is an area of Bridge I have missed to date - perhpas you mean that the person asking has found a good fit with slam prospects but you are unhappy at their choice

How do you evaluate this North's second double is theoretically penalty but often goes either way and the play is not always obvious The first takeout can be on as little as 6 points but the second one promises more like 10-12+ hopefully Pass or 5 hearts MPs, red vs red etc. I was happy passing 4 spades [hv=pc=n&s=s2haj43dk73cajt75&d=e&v=b&b=10&a=p1c1sd(takeout)4s(pre-emptive)ppd(theroetically%20penalty)p]133|200[/hv]

Don't have a go at me using Soloway and getting to this questionable slam because half the field bid slam - many differently Sadly I received the worst DD lead and those who got to slam differently were handed a chance with a small diamond lead I thought, oh no IMPs, my bad bidding, terrible score :( and all these others bid to 6 differently and were given the slam - until I saw the traveller I assumed they were all in Game [hv=https://www.bridgebase.com/tools/handviewer.html?lin=st||pn|thepossum,~Mwest,~Mnorth,~Meast|md|2SAKHAKJ964DT9C942,SQJ85HQ82DKJ764C6,STHT75DAQ53CAKT85,S976432H3D82CQJ73|sv|o|rh||ah|Board%208|mb|P|mb|1C|an|Minor%20suit%20opening%20--%203+%20!C;%2011-21%20HCP;%2012-22%20total%20points|mb|P|mb|2H!|an|Soloway%20jump%20shift%20--%20rebiddable%20!H;%2017+%20total%20points|mb|P|mb|3H|an|Support%20--%203+%20!C;%203+%20!H;%2011-21%20HCP;%2012-22%20total%20points|mb|P|mb|4H|an|rebiddable%20!H;%2017+%20total%20points|mb|P|mb|4N|an|Blackwood%20(H)%20--%203+%20!C;%203+%20!H;%2021-%20HCP;%2015-22%20total%20points|mb|P|mb|5C|an|Zero%20or%20three%20key%20cards%20--%20rebiddable%20!H;%2017+%20total%20points|mb|P|mb|5D|an|?%20queen%20--%203+%20!C;%203+%20!H;%2021-%20HCP;%2015-22%20total%20points|mb|P|mb|5H|an|No%20queen%20-%20H%20trump%20--%20rebiddable%20!H;%2017+%20total%20points|mb|P|mb|6H|an|Signoff%20--%203+%20!C;%203+%20!H;%2021-%20HCP;%2015-22%20total%20points|mb|P|mb|P|mb|P|pc|C6|pc|CA|pc|C7|pc|C2|pc|H5|pc|H3|pc|HA|pc|H2|pc|SA|pc|S8|pc|ST|pc|S4|pc|SK|pc|S5|pc|C5|pc|S9|pc|DT|pc|DJ|pc|DQ|pc|D2|pc|HT|pc|S7|pc|H4|pc|HQ|pc|H8|pc|H7|pc|S6|pc|H9|pc|HK|pc|D7|pc|C8|pc|C3|pc|HJ|pc|SQ|pc|CT|pc|S2|pc|D9|pc|DK|pc|DA|pc|D8|pc|CK|pc|CQ|pc|C4|pc|D4|pc|D3|pc|S3|pc|H6|pc|D6|pc|C9|pc|SJ|pc|D5|pc|CJ|]400|300[/hv]

For me you advance if there is chance of game or slam - because I learned that opener is not supposed to say anything more unless asked or forced - but I am assuming you know how many tricks your partner is showing with their weak 2 (if you know that you can work out from your hand a hoped for total number - eg a weak 2 for me could mean anything from 4 to 6 tricks depending on various factors - then you look at your hand and decide - if you don't feel you can add much best to stay quiet). I have a very simplistic approach to bridge around how many tricks you think you can make. There is another situation if you think you have a better higher ranking 2 bid maybe show that :) Its a remarkably simple game when you understand the point of it and how to score it Maybe we need a little example. Suppose you know that your partner's bid means they think they have approximately 5 tricks in hearts, say, and you reckon you can add around 4 or more extra tricks then you consider advancing etc. That could involve bidding directly to game, asking more information using 2NT or even bidding another suit with more tricks or more scoring potential. Otherwise you pass. Sorry edited a minor mathematical error * Disclaimer. This not may not work with your partner depending on what their bid means - does it mean they think they can make 6 or 4, maybe even just 3 tricks. It also requires a knowledge of suit rankings, how many tricks each need for game, what type of scoring you are playing etc - and the ability to count the trick potential in your hand and add up. But we aren't talking big numbers and complicated sums. Also your partner's 2X may not be a weak 2 at all :) That is for you to know, not me

I would consider 2NT (in the absence of multi - which I don't play) so 2diamonds - but on other days would be happy with 1 spade or 2 clubs

7 tricks in seat 3 -> 4 clubs opening bid :)

I have no idea but my first inclination before reading the thread was 5 diamonds

Has anyone ever organised a team match between the Free and Advanced/Paid bots? Is there a difference between Free and Basic? I would even consider paying to watch