apollo1201

Thanks for spotting, I obviously meant ♠ fit (edited).

I would have said GF with S fit as opener is making a free bid. In this situation, X is 3cd-support or strong w/o appropriate call. Over 1C 1H 1S, 2H could be looking for stopper as anyway opener cannot pass.

I think previous posters expressed it right. It is a "transformable" TOX (some call it optional) made with at least a (very) sound TOX with defensive values, partner is expected to leave it with a flattish hand (thinking the combined defensive values will set 4H), or pull with shape or adequate strenght (to make). A typical hand: AQxx x KQJx Axxx Even if you catch partner with a flat hand with 0 HCP, 4H could fail. If you catch him with JTxxx xx xx Kxxx 4S is odds on.

Haha I missed that answering expert questions late at night and jetlagged is an idea at best as good as this slam :D

I guess 2S(!)-6S auction? Well, whatever, now you need to get rid of 3 C losers so 3 discards to find. Option 1 : finesse J to discard 2 on the AK plus 1 on the 5th H if the Q didn't fall (and W ) - I dont have the maths but probably a little short of 50% Option 2 : A, K and ruf, wins when the Q is 3rd at max and I cant help thinking it is less likely. At the table after surviving trick 2, I would just take a deep breath, mutter a silent prayer to the HQ and finesse. Or did I miss sth?

Eagles, you have to tell us partner's hand and subsequent bidding now!

Except that this hand might not be opened 4D by all players...

I guess 4D is a hand that goes past 3NT so looooong and weak suit with some side goodies? Like A or Q 8th with HK and/or CK/Q or even CA if the D are headed by the Q. The opps making sth does not worry me too much as partner given his D and putative goodies in one or two rounded suits rates to have very short S so I might even cash 3 rounds. Or paetner'sC honors will work on defenss. But we cant rule that out completely. Given that not unlikely hands like DA+HK or DQ+CA+singleton H make 5D cold, red at IMPs I go for it. I fear losing 4 tricks more often in 4S due to the expected trump length of an opponent. A sim could help?

Yep, CA is the less likely to cost.

All green, IMPs, dealer deals and opens 4H, you have the following nice collection: AQT x AQx AQ98xx Is X or 5C better? I chose to X (not sure of what I would do next if I were to have another chance to bid), and partner had 8xxxx AJTx x KJx Do you stand the X or aim for a S slam (or a plain 4S)? It might depend on your partner's double styles, I think we had a thread somewhere on how minimal those X could be... GIB seems to suggest cuebidding 5H which seems a bit exxagerated I think. Anyway H were 0-8, S 5-0 so 5C were the limit if you escaped deadly crossruffs on the opening lead.

To me! Ususally, but not today so I'll x with this point-heavy but flattish hand, partner has the right to pull though).

FWIW and to answer Fluffy's question: - not having 3H mean sth (2 or 3 cd) *has to* be improved - differentiating direct jump (or Xfer) to game vs. Xfer at 3 level and bid game can probably help as well (when 3H doesnt mean anything) - E, having an 8-cd suit and facing 23+ that could be 28 as well could also do sth (5H although you might reach 6 w/o 2 aces bidding this way, is there a way to ask for aces or set trumps below 4H? I guessnot in the system you played there) - or a punting auction starting w/ Gerber (which I don't play though) and any number of H depending on the answer?

Who said preempts do work? BTW, 4H or 3NT are not home yet. TBH, both passes are ok, S is a little light (or make the minor QJs into the HK, add a 6th H) to have a clear cut action (and in hands where you belong in 3H, partner will have propelled you to 4 even before W bid!), and N despite having a full opener has a superflat hand, the dreadful xxx S and not even 4H. With such a hand, I'd prefer defending 2S than having partner play 3m in a 4-3 fit. With disciplined bidding, no blame, next round please.

+1 and LOL for mgoetze :)

I think you guys are slightly overdoing. The OP was wondering why, having a 6-3 trump suit, the 3-1 break was more likely, while for a hand, 6331 was less likely than 6322. I guess it is some Baeysian thing, 6331 and 6322 are absolutes, while in the case you already know a hand has 3 cards (dummy). Or maybe the probabilities of the other 4 slightly differ between 54 and 63? I suspect 1st but my mind started its holidays this evening while my body follows tomorrow only!

I'm not supposed to have a side 4c-M when opening 3m but I'm in 3rd and 5432 are so tiny vs my AQJT876. Oops I messed up again with those black pips!

You could also bid 3NT after cuing the cue (max lf 1st answer so probably 6 to bad 8) and partner's 3H. A not so imaginative partner should figure out a weak stopper and for sure no fifth spade so hopefully 2 Hs (I however wonder what the 2nd bid could be Axxx x xxxxx Qxx: 3D but does it say sth about respective lengths of S/D). And pull or pass depending on his hand.

Thanks Wesly. So then, with a weak partner, we go down 2 times out of 3 at the 5 level while they make the contract 1 time out of 3, so we tend to turn a plus into a minus. However, considering your requirements for opponent's 5♦ hand were too low, it means they probably make more than half of the times (see the huge score of 10-trick hands that turn into 11 if you add an A), while we might almost always go down, but 80% by 3 or less, so a good save against the likely -600. If partner is stronger, I believe 5♥ turns into a favorite for making (don't have the stats though), so we should bid it, preferably I understand from other comments by pulling partner's X to 5♥. Now we have to assess the probability partner has above or below 11 :P (just kidding). Overall a very interesting thread to read, bearing in mind that opponents (and partner) don't know the hands double-dummily, so could act wrongly (defending at 6♦ against 5♥) as well, and that we have a limited time to decide at the table so no time to run sims ovbiously...

I agree with lots above for some parts of their answers (but I'm not expert). 2S - 5+ S's, forcing (opener promised another bid anyway by reversing, unless responder bids game or slam), unlimited (could be minimum but does not deny a GF hand) 3S - semi-solid 6-card at least, GF, 9+ (at least an intersting "piece" outside of S's) 2nd auction with 4SF - 4 S's (responder denied 5 by not bidding 2S), that accept to play in 4-3 (so includes some top honors), with no clear fit for opener's suit (maybe 3 H's and 2 D's), and no suitable C stopper - maybe AKxx Jxx Jx xxxx (with more HCP in H's you can bid 3H and if you don't have HCP in majors then you probably have C's stopped or are weak and go with the 2NT approach!)

Wesley, your simulation is interesting at red vs. white because here, East has obviously more than KQ 8th and out. He is a trick heavier at least. OTOH, never doubling 5D and being always doubled when down at 5H should compensate, but it only marginally affects the scoring, not the mathematic expectation of tricks won. We should also factor 6H-1 when partner sees us freely bidding 5H. Overall, a very hard simulation to make and thanks a lot for running these 10 000 deals. Could you pls give us the frequencies of the number of tricks made? If you still have them ;-)

I would pass as partner could be weak and the 5D bidder at red is supposed to be sound, although we cant be sure the contract makes. So risking 500 with the expected bad breaks while I could have (just myself) 2 tricks on defense is not super appealing. I would venture 5H with a more meaty hand with (pick 2 out of 3) more robust trumps (or a 5th trump), more quick tricks, or an establishable side suit (eg Axxx Kxxx AKJxx, AQxx Kxxx KQJxx or Axxx KQxx KQJxx, Ax Kxxxx AKxxxx) to keep trump control and being able to run the Cs while Ss are not opened (likely D lead).

Rather than 3 cd and extra values, I would also add non-minimal hand (do you consider a prime 13 count eg Axx Axxx x KQTxx as extra values?).

Double is usally the anti-psychic to immediately expose responders' trying to move us from our fit. If responder had passed, I'd have cue bidded to decide between 3NT and 4S. These spots might still be where we belong but it has become more likely that everyone is on the light side (eg. opener with 11 HCP, long Cs and a H singleton, responder with AJxxx H and out, and partner with a light but good-shaped X). I would nevertheless cue-bid (H or C depending on partnership conventions, probably C as I "hold" them) but be more cautious about game as we could be on the light side with bad breaks and an 8-card fit maximum as partner shouldn't have a 5 cM (maybe 5 Ds). Of course if responder is making one oh his jokes, we'll find out very soon.

Having butchered the auction with the 4H call, I continue the slaughter with 6S. Partner might not know what is going on but opps neither. I hope the unexpected values (void + a more than decent side suit) will compensate the blurred values we have.

With this excellent 18 count, I might even punt 3NT! From partner's side after 3C, he has golden cards (5-cd support and Qx in H), but slow tricks in D and S (KJx) where most his points are, and potentially facing singletons. Opener could also be 5323 or 6(31 or 22)3 on this auction. The form of scoring might affect the decision. I'd go for a conservative 3NT at MPs, KJx x2 being too much of a liability, and start with a nebulous 3D bid at IMPs to see if sth exciting happens, with 5C or 4NT as a back-up contracts if we go higher than 3NT.