gszes

The minority report comes in with a thunderous 4h The opps are at a monstrous disadvantage with this bidding and the vulnerability. They have both expressed doubt about being able to make game and we are the only unlimited hand at the table. The opps will have something like zero reason to assume they can set 4h so we can safely go down 2 and possibly even 3 (if they can make 4s) and still be better off unless they cannot make 3+ spades. With a 9+ card heart suit our defensive abilities seem severely limited especially opposite a p not interested in game (and probably short in spades). Heck 4h might even make and the danger of the opps suddenly pushing to game seems rather remote when they could easily have been running scared with 3s.

This hand is one of those that you cannot outright win the post mortem against partner no matter which way they raise hearts (you can turn your back on them for bidding 1s though). It is hard to fault the optimists that want to make a game try at IMPS and I say that even though I think 2h is sufficient (change the heart J to the club J and I am with the game triers). The 4th heart with limited ruffing values is no big deal AND you never know when p has made a lead director with only 4 hearts. If p cannot move over 2h game seems far off BUT I am a pessimist (all those losing lotto tickets have a negative effect):)

It may be worse if they can then bid slam which they have not done so far (just a thought since we have no reason to assume we can beat 7h)

3n 5c a distant 2nd (when secretariat won the triple crown) 6c a way distant 3rd (the horse that came in last that race) If you are using LEB after 2h x 3c 3s 3n S hand is just too strong for a mere 2s. Once in a while you will get too high but its worth the risk since game can be made with many hands that cannot reasonably raise 2s.

The entire purpose of bids like exclusion is to finally get some real science into the bidding. Partner could own the AKQ in the suit you are void in and assuming p always has at least 1 (while probable) is cutting into the science part for very little gain. Almost all bidding is based on systemic probability and every once in a while we like to "know" what we are doing:)))))))

spade might score a trick club might get 1 maybe 2 but for setting 4h (I would have bid 4s over 3d) I like the singleton dia lead as having the best shot at setting them. P may have an entry or two and I can picture the defense getting off to a dia to A dia ruff spade to A dia ruff and then sitting back and making sure the rain does not get my cc wet:)

Sigh my fault I saw trick 1 and immediately diagnosed a singleton heart (assuming standard carding) then utterly failed to notice the comment about udca at trick 2 TY for being kind:)

Having a 6 card suit (especially a major) is usually viewed with less a jaundiced eye. How will you ever recover if the bidding is anything but weak and even then what are the odds a 63 heart fit belongs in nt?? If you really feel the need to downgrade your 6 card suit pretend it is 5 and open 1h just do not repeat them.

I made a crummy 2n call (vs 2h) and now we are in the soup. While it is highly improbable p has the right hand for 6s, I am willing to bid 7 and have a look see before doing anything further. If the partnership is not well oiled enough to handle radical hands maybe 6s is a rational bid. My fertile imagination figures about 80% of "rational" 6s bids will make 7s so I go with that at IMPS. This hand is just plain too darn good to go quietly into the night. At MP converting to 6n should at least pick up some MP while doing that at IMPS makes no sense.

I like this play of low toward the heart 9 --- IF I was going to assume rho had all the missing honors I would begin with the heart K hoping rho began with AJ of hearts doubleton. The play toward the 9 caters to the problem of how to make sure lho cannot get in later in the hand with the heart J--------:)

The overall point I was trying to make was at MP play the ace and another spade at IMPS (where the risk of going down 2 tiny by comparison) trying to make 2s is not such a bad proposition--THEN playing toward the 8 is reasonable.

I must be missing something please advise if I am all messed up (and quietly why). trick 1 p plays the heart 5. There is NO HOLDING where the 5 is the right play. That means the 5 must be from a singleton. The dia plays (tricks 2/3) make it apparent declarer has 5 diamonds and the 2s bid gives declarer 3 spades. So declarer has 3451 p has 6124 and that is without knowing much at all about HPC distribution. It seems obvious that we must switch to a club and it has to be the Q just in the small % chance rho bid 1n with a stiff J and we can smother it. If declarer started with the ace it will not matter since p will know to hang onto clubs. The main point is to realize it can never be right to try to hit partner with a spade because it is impossible for them to hold a heart to return and then cast about for more information.

3s It is not just for the sake of starting to show my suits but for gathering extra intel in case the opps decide to continue their barrage bidding. The 3s bid establishes forcing pass and if p passes 4/5/6 d we know slam is hugely probable just not which strain yet. I would gamble on 6h knowing 6c could have been our last makeable spot and settling for a small slam because too much space has been wasted to search for a grand. Preempts work keep doing them.

Think of it this way, IF there is a heart ruff playing to the nine is sort of a mirage since it only works when rho holds H9(x) but can fail huge when rho hold 9x or xx or Hx if they get a heart ruff. That is a huge number of possible really bad outcomes (-200) at MP. If you look at the combined hands there is a really good chance the opps can make 3d so your main concern should be avoiding going down 2 and that means starting trumps from the top appears to be your best bet. MP and IMPS are completely different animals. At IMPS going for -200 against their 110+ is no big deal but if you can score up 2s making along with 110+ as the other table you have a small game swing so you only need to be right around 40% of the time to come out ahead in the long run. IMPS finesse for H9(x) MP go from the top in this instance.

let me atem:))

Second seat and 4th seat* are the only times I would x with such minimal values because the upside opposite a passed hand is almost solely relegated to sacrifice once p is a passed hand. I expect the number of times you can xx will indeed increase mainly because on average you hand power will be stronger than against a more conventional strength TOX. I did not mean this type of bidding has no risks but on average both sides will have about half the deck and probably a 9 card trump fit with my partner having the same power as your hand sitting behind you. This is a MP heaven sort of like having rho open 15-17 hcp 1n and we are looking at 17 with a decent lead and want to x for penalties. No guarantees but playing the odds. It is ok in 4th seat because the average situation is a virtual guarantee after 2 passed hands then 3s. ty for reading my reply

Note that in the original position I referred to RHO (east) as beginning with Q9 or J9 vs west. The T holding the trick because it cannot be overruffed is a Trojan horse. Winning the 4th dia with the trump 10 (and dia not splitting 44) means we have to fall back on the original basic plan hoping for 3 trumps and 2 clubs BUT now we are hoping only east has the short clubs whereas the original plan either opp holding 3 trumps and 2 clubs would win. Using the 8 allows for a very common defensive theme (getting overruffed by the longer trumps and playing for split honors in the trump suit) and the end position means either opp can hold 3 clubs.

I like the starting with diamonds. There is an additional benefit to starting with diamonds and that is we can try for 44 (38%). If rho shows out on the 4th dia we can always fall back on the club play. If rho follows we ruff with the 8. If lho overruffs we can still make if rho began with Q9 or J9. club club ruff with the ace (unless lho shows out and fails to ruff--we are probably going down) and finesse the spade T. If dia split 44 merely 2 rounds of trumps ending in dummy and play the 5th dia pitching last club. The nice part about this LOP is that we can try it (not risk free but its fairly safe 70%) and still have a strong chance of falling back on the 3S 2c distribution. As an aside if rho trumps HIGH (creating an uppercut) on the 4th diamond it is probably best to just pitch the club and hope they started with 3 trumps.

What would you bid with (over 4d) KQJTxx Kx x xxxx I submit 4s would seem like a very rational choice with this hopefully 1 loser max suit. Since it is reasonable for 4s to be natural it takes a partnership agreement to change the natural meaning. I echo the 5d bid as a vastly superior way to raise hearts and show slam interest.

Look at your contract. 6N has to seem like the top spot (I would have bid 7 knowing p was around a 3/1 favorite to hold the spade J). Once you have made that determination playing "safe" is not a bad thing. We use safety plays at IMPS all the time because going down in an otherwise makeable contract can be disastrous. The downside of trying for 7 is that it puts the top ranked spot at risk for little to no reason. You got a favorable lead without which you would still have to scramble for 12 tricks. RHM covered the play aspect I wanted to put in perspective WHY worrying about 7 was missing the point.

There are very few hands where p has minimal stuff and we can make game. Pretty much all of those minimal hands require p to have club "stuff". 3c Is the only way to get p excited about a minimal hand including KJ AK AJ K9 A9 of clubs. Searching for game here is certainly reasonable so why not make the bid that give partner the chance to reevaluate their hand the best?

x Craziness abounds when there is a large preempt. The main question is just how much should the hand short in the preempt suit strain to do something? Theory seems to indicate that you can gamble a bit more when you hold aces. Thus x Axxx xxxx Axxx just might be a lowest reasonable x over 3s. I must admit that I would almost surely pass with that hand if vulnerable. I would not x with x KJxx xxxx KJxx the lack of aces vastly increases the risk side of the equation. I would imagine x Kxxx Axxx Kxxx might be a reasonable minimum with only 1 ace any more than that is just gravy (like the hand presented). The 5 card suit being in hearts is also a strong selling point since that is our most likely game. I would avoid taking these given minimums and x with only 3 hearts.

2n has several advantages. 1. Keeps game in play. 2. Invests a level to explore (p may be able to safely run from 2n to 3d rather than pass). 3. The fact that our hand has been limited by our initial pass allows for decent prospect appraisal by p. 4. Our 9 count is actually pretty decent with at least 1 if not 3 entries and a side 5 card suit that might set up if dia seem wrong. 5. On many good 10 counts we would bid 3n anyway (with a dia fit). Disadvantages 1. 2d might have been our last makeable spot. Lots can go right and there is really not much downside especially since we will have strong clues on how to play the hand.

You are right near the balancing point btn go and no go. At IMPS I would go (bid 2n like you did) and MP (where stretching to bid thin games is of minor importance) I would pass. I realize clubs (ugh) is not a MP haven but we might get lucky enough to score a couple of spade ruffs to help us get some MP out of this hand. The misfit in spades and lack of a suit of our own are the main problems with any NT venture (at IMPS we can celebrate even sub 40% games that we would hate at MP).

3n over 3s It is totally unreasonable to expect 3n to be the right strain so it has a vastly superior use in the form of serious/non-serious. The decision of how to interpret is also important. When partner's hand is UNlimited it becomes non serious and the opposite when p has limited their hand. This means the partnership can cue bid up to 3n w/o either showing extras. On this hand over 3s responder should simply have bid 3n (non serious since opener's hand is unlimited). Opener has nothing extra (and some would say they have already promised too much hehe) and opener bids a happy 4h and another marriage is saved:!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Note that it would be wrong for responder to jump to 4h and waste bidding space when it is so easy to cue bid and then try to put on the brakes later with 3n if feasible.