gszes

while we have no idea if p is sacrificing or bidding to make, we do know p began with inv+. This greatly increases the chance p is bidding to make and p had to be somewhat cautious because we have never had the opportunity to define our hand (ie the hand could be a misfit). Our hand is so pluperfectly? perfect I would actually bid 6c (cant be misunderstood since with a self sufficient club suit I could have bid 5c over 4s) in an attempt to reach a grand slam. It is BAM so the risk factor is minimal and if p 5d bid makes much sense 6d should be simple and 7d very close.

sigh I admit it has me stumped so far sheeeesh

It isn't just 9 count that is a problem, 12-17 is monstrous with the 1 level gone. 8 9 10 all become problems where inviting (opposite 12 13 14) can be too high and not bidding can all miss games (opposite 15 16 17). Much better is to include 5 card majors in your 1n opener (with or w/o puppet stayman) or slightly increasing the size of your 1n and 2n rebids so 1n = 12-15 2n = 17-19 and decide if your 16 counts look more like 15 or 17. You will miss far less games with either method and go overboard far less depending on how lucky you are on any given hand.

l will hang round just in case need a break from shopping anyway I and credit cards tired :))))

Working with what the opps know (and can infer) is very important when deciding on a LOP. You lament that west makes plays that are illogical. The club 6 lead is either 2nd from nothing or 4th best. It is impossible that it was 4th best because west can "see" (after u win the club K) that east has at most 1 club higher than the 6. The bidding was also a strong indicator you have some club length (skipping !D !H !S and going directly to 2n). Since you have "stuff" in the other suits the possession of the club K means you most likely are limited to queens everywhere else so the robot can actually get a pretty darn accurate assessment as soon as you play the heart Q. Now here is the kicker you know the opening lead is not 4th best since the only card combination for that is JT96 and the club 6 is not going to be led from that holding. That means there is a huge chance west can figure out the club lead also. If you realize that you will see the danger of playing hearts before trying to take 8 tricks in the minors:)

4c is the most flexible BUT it makes it appear we seem as if we really have clubs and we are a far cry from having enough clubs to suggest to p we play there. 4d (my choice) (while showing something in clubs) not only denies 4 cards in hearts but also caters the the strong chance partner has dia and hearts for the x. If p happens to have clubs and hearts they can correct to 5c or maybe even bid 4h (to show 5) along the way to 5c which we will gleefully pass. Our hand is actually pretty darn good for most contracts despite the blight of 2 spades. I would have opened that hand 1d and would have no qualms about rebidding 1n over a 1s response. The 1d bid would have given us a bit more flexibility on this hand.

A lot of bidding is planning. A neg x (vs 1h) is much better in the long run since it keeps both majors in play. While it appears the 1h bid keeps spades in play (opener can easily bid them over 1h) what happens if east bids 2d? South is too weak to do anything and with no heart fit has no reason to bid further and poof just like that the spade suit disappears. Note that over the neg x if east bids 2d opener may well still pass (downgrading their dia K) but north can then bid 2h to compete allowing south to bid 2s. The neg x saves the spade suit while the 1h bid can quite easily lose it. Always try to make the bid that is the most flexible if you have no clear direction.

a rare combination of 5 straight pushes but you played them the fastest and time is a tie breaker?????

east 100% the logic is somewhat circular but undeniable. N and E are both passed hands so their "average" amount of hcp is generally around 6. S has bid 4h so their hcp power is generally around 8 but opposite a passed hand the range is much wider but still wont often be more than 10. So W 14 + S "10" = 24 leaving around 8 each for N and E. A lot depends on E heart holding for game to have a serious shot and even better E (in po seat) will be able to do a similar calculation and realize we actually rate to be very close to 14 as a minimum and w/o too much in hearts given the 4h bid. I would x 4h as E in the po seat and be completely unsurprised when 4s makes easily. The doubleton heart just makes a x by W over 4h too risky especially opposite a passed hand.

P did not have to bid 3c yet they did so opener should have some extra values of some sort so that would be aces and most likely major suit shortness. P could all too easily have chose 2/3n with both major suits stopped and club support so forget 3n as any jump later to 5c will make the earlier bids (3h 3s whatever) look like slam try cue bids. Our 150 honors will help cushion the blow if/when we go down in 5c and be a nice holiday gift if we make 5c. Good luck

Enough stuff here to consider slam. I would begin with 4c and after 4d continue with 4h. P will surely realize we have only 5 (no transfer pls do not let me hear we would do this with 46 and no space to clarify) AND enough stuff to make 4n safe. Listen to what p does next and take it from there.

NO ONE????? now that's bad a chance to get hammered by some of the best in the world what other sport offers that opportunity????? Spend a couple of hours playing with someone new you never know how it will work out. I will show up 15 min in advance incase I am needed

MP 2d no need to stretch for vul game and prospect of -200+ at MP could be a disaster IMP 3d now stretching for thin vul game and what better way to right side 3n and have p concentrate on spade/club stops

Our max number of tricks is 11 without help from the opps. The real question is how worthwhile is the going for the max (leading a dia to the A for a second club finesse). When we play a dia to the ace we are potentially establishing the setting tricks for the opps (though they may be tough to untangle) if the 2nd finesse fails to bring in the club suit. IMHO I think the best course of action is to cash the club A at trick 3 and continue the suit if it can be set up for 5 winners. If the clubs prove to be 41 (on or offside) we are in position to lead a dia from dummy toward the 9 and try to make 3n via 2c 4h 3d and maybe a spade.

3nt rho hand at these colors can be quite variable as to both suit quality and length. There is still a very good chance we can limit the ops spade winners to 2 and then worry about how to score another 8 tricks with the defenders communications cut. rho wont often have more than 8 hcp for their 3s bid so that 8 + our 5 = 23 which means on average the remaining 17 hcp will be split 8.5 for lho and p. If we further cut down those numbers the opps will score 2spades and we score 1 then we need 8 trick with our remaining 20.5 vs the opps 9.5. If we were balanced this would be a daunting task indeed but our 6 card dia suit gives us a superb shot at scoring enough tricks to make getting the rest in the majors easy. So on average we should be playing 3n at MP. The question then becomes is it worthwhile to trot out 3n at IMPS where the risk is significantly increased as well as the reward. I say yes because if lho x 3n we can retreat to 4d and this lowers the overall risk vs reward to acceptable levels.

2/1 1h 2d 2n black suits stopped unlimited (though some play split range 12-14 or 18+) 3c 3h iffy spade stop QTx JTxx that sort of thing not extra length since we failed to bid 2h over 2c 3s asking for more info forcing to at least 4s or 5m 4h < 3 clubs, < 3d, heart ace given the bidding 4522 distribution (w/o heart A 4s would show this hand) 5n if you have 2 of the top 3 honors in either of my suits bid 7 6c POC 6d not perfect since opener could have Jtxx AKQxx xx Kx but that is only 1 holding out of a huge number that make 6d a great contract and even then its not hopeless but a great sequence to arrive in a grand.

enthusiastic eh? hmmm would QJxx KQJx AJx QJx be enthusiastic? Not in my book, what is there to be enthusiastic about? If all p wanted to was if we were max and they could have merely invited us to bid 3n. So enthusiastic should mean a hand with controls a dia fit and chances at 3n or slammish if p wishes. ANYTHING that comes close to that description should make a small slam a virtual lay down so the real question should be how close to bidding a grand are we and how can we explore if we feel it is needed? The !CA !DA (!HK or !CK) put us at 11 tricks and we have used 11 of our enthusiastic p 15-17. We still have 4-6 hcp to spare. My feeling is a 7d bid should be the best guess here since we can make 13 if p happens to have 5 clubs or Kx in hearts (or numerous other holdings that will allow us to make 7n) and this should be the best spot either MP or IMPS since getting to 7 on around 32 hcp will usually be a great score no matter the form of scoring. If I had the tools needed to find out if p had club length or 2 hearts I would go that route but w/o some sophisticated asking bids I go with what appears to be the most likely road to success.

it seems to me 3s should be a spade splinter. If you had a 3s bid you would have bid that over 1s and while 2s (over 2h) might only be marking time surely your 4th suit is forcing to at least 2n:))

if lho is balanced and p is balanced and rho is balanced the odds of needing 2d natural border on nonexistence. In the case where we are known to be broke (like here) playing a transfer system is much more likely to lead to success I would use 2c = nat 2d = transfer 2h = transfer 2s = spades + another suit and limit myself to those options. I would not expect a casual partner to play 2c = natural nor 2s = spades + another but i would have great confidence in 2d and 2h both being transfers.

how do you think you will fare if p has nothing much in clubs to help you (xx)? the opps will make no mistake in their decision to x or not. How do you think you will fare if p has Qx and will it be better than a club lead against 2n? Once you take just those 2 things into consideration the odds of NOT bidding start to look awfully nice. In order for 3c to work we either need to make or need to have the opps make which is no guarantee even if p has only xx in clubs. SOTM might convince me to try 3c over 1n but hard to imagine it being a great idea at this point of the auction.

Is this a lightner type x or is it merely a practical application of make your normal lead and we will set it? At MP I would be much more inclined to use the latter approach because it will get us more MP more often but at imps the potential pay out from using the lightner type x is huge even if not as common where we will reap more small rewards for passing 3n and getting a heart lead and sometimes reap monster rewards when we can get p to make the unusual lead that will set 3n. I am for the lightner type x at IMPS asking for an unusual lead and I would lead the club T P did not super accept our transfer and did not xx 2d so these leads seem wrong and surely p would not bid this way with long good spades so thank goodness I have a club to lead. Hoping to find p with Qxx QJ Axx KQJ9x or some such. P may also have a hand type that can stand a club lead xxx KQJx QJx AKx and still be able to make a timely heart switch. The above reflects my meta thinking but playing with a partner w/o prior discussion is it best to think everyone plays this way or merely go with the idea that occurs with greater frequency?? Intriguing problem. Note that there is no thought given to pulling the x since p should realize we are broke.

rats if this wasn't anonymous we would have a great tool for looking for future partners (ie those that agree with how we think no matter good or bad). Anyway I am one of those that looks at this problem and wonders what in the world anyone hopes to accomplish with 3c that makes it worth the monstrous risk. Rho is limited only by their initial pass and they may be strong enough to bid 3n. Even if rho is weak and the opps are headed to 3d the suit appears to be breaking poorly. 3c indeed seems like a reasonable lead director but the risk for this benefit is huge at these colors. Opps playing 3d might be a great board for us (even better if they play 3c undoubled of course) We have a weak 2 bid that will have zero preemption and is being made after the opps have exchanged considerable information and at unfavorable. My guess is those that bid 3c do so because it is more fun to bid than pass. I would rate 3c under these conditions as a 3 at imps closer to a 1.

I am a tad surprised to see so many 3c bidders. IMHO the best bid would appear to be 4c. Big trump fit and not a whole lot else and the type of hand that would make 3n a very low % chance opposite even a max 2c bid. 3c should have more stuff and 3n should not really be out of the picture opposite a max 2c bid.

My imagination is lacking and I cannot readily conceive of a hand consistent with 2d followed by 6d that will have no play for 7 here and I would expect 7 to be a walk in the park.

auction misread? i see 2s followed by the big hand.