gszes

Lets not overthink the situation. On defense we have 2 tricks and need only 2 tricks from p to score a plus. On offense we have 1 and maybe a useful club Q so partners hand has to be worth close to 8 tricks for us to get a (large) plus score. Odds of that are pretty slim so choosing to pass is the risk vs reward favorite since there is a lot of risk for a negative score and much smaller chance of a large gain AND that assumes we are never x when we bid and things are not breaking well for us.

if 2c was gf I would bid 4h and would do so even if we use a neg x to show 4 hearts since there is little to no desire to have p convert such an x to penalty. Even if p thought we had 5 hearts surely we would have 7/8 diamonds to open 1d so our 4h bid gives a VERY close approximation to our actual hand. if 2c was not gf much tougher since p might be bidding 2c with all manner of significantly weaker hands. I would have a tendency to just pretend I had 3 little clubs and bid 4s and not worry much about the heart suit. If p wishes to sign off in 5c we can convert to 5d. The problem with a 4h bid is that p may feel stuck if they have one of those weaker 2c bids and they might pass from fear (something a nice robust opening hand will not do). The key in both case is that we are showing a hand with lots of offensive potential and little to no interest in 3n or 3s x (which should indicate pretty short spades).

2NT Nothing else comes close to this for descriptive ability and exploration. 2NT also carries with it a built in warning sign if p happens to have hearts since we would have vastly preferred to x or bid NT if we had tolerance for hearts. This hand is very close to the minimum one might expect for this action at these colors. We also have the ability to still explore for 3n or even a minor suit slam if advancers hand warrants it. For those that feel 2n is totally wrong here please give some examples of what a 2n bid at these colors would look like and lets see how far apart we are. The main problem I have with x or 1n is that it encourages 3n and 4h on a huge number of wrong hand types whereas the 2n bid should get us to our most reasonable spot(except those hands where pass would have served us better). 2n = 9 2d =5 pass= 4 x 1n = 3 I would rate 2d a bit higher if this were MP since going for a monster minus is only 1 board

I have collected 4d and 2c and the opps have won only 1 trick so far. rho pitched a club so there are 3 clubs left. The opening lead of the K from KTxxx itself is very odd and what plausible holding could rho have in order to feel it was necessary to pitch a club at trick 5? IMHO I think we have either opp squeezed holding (Kx K void xxx or K Kx void xxx) and I would merely play a spade toward the ace (just in case lho shows out for some reason) and play a heart to the ace. It is of course plausible that a mere guess as to which major honor to play rho for can pay off but the play of the hand makes me think something odd is going on.

low heart = 9 no interest in ruffing with probable natural trump trick(s) do not want to see dia ruffs in dummy. club q = 6 might get lucky and eliminate a club to dummy so no spade pitches. spade = 3 seems like wasting time to me at best exchanging natural tricks for ruffs also risking setting up spades in dummy for pitches. dia = 1/0 someone needs a hearing aid. declarer has pushed to game over a mere preference and after they made a non forcing 2d bid. The heart suit is most likely not overly robust (no 3h bid) so we very well might have 1/2 natural heart tricks. Feel that best shot at setting is making sure no diamonds are ruffed away. Hoping for something like KQJx(x) K 5(4) xxxxx(x) A A87532 AJ987 A

5c Odds are miniscule p would have begun with x Axx(x?) x(x) KQT9876 The only holdings that would make 6h look good. Bidding 3h to search for this teeny tiny itty bitty slam chance make it easier for lho to bid 4d Or rho to x a 4d splinter from p which in turn makes it far easier for the opps to bid (and possibly make) 5d. Just go for maximum preemption in your most likely game spot.

the idea is to hold the opps to 2 spades and 2 diamonds when the dia honors are split since going after diamonds is by far our best shot at 3n (heart finesse and 33 break echhhh). If rho has Qx and you win the first spade rho wins the first diamond and leads another spade won by lho with K9876 and they continue spades to clear the suit and they just wait until you lead another diamond to take 3s and 2d. If rho has KQ9x they can win at most 2 spades anyway so that is not a factor.

3n hard to picture 4h scoring many more tricks than 3n and 3n at least lets p know we have stuff whereas a 4h bid can be done with zero. See little sense in putting all my eggs in the heart basket when there is no guarantee of a 44 heart fit and 3n would seem to be just as viable as 4h. pass is hugely unilateral at these colors and an action I would much more consider at MP where a series of small sets might yield tons of MP when games fail. IMPS just too much reward vs risk to go for the throat.

no vote because there is sometimes quite a difference between IMPS and MP and the question does not specify form of scoring. MP our hand has 6 hcp but half of them are useful only after a loser (or more) and even the heart K may be vulnerable if club ruffs are needed. While we are not dead minimum I remain unconvinced the ruffing values are sufficient to make up for the overall weakness of the hand so taking the low road and PASS seems the way to go. Not enough games to make up for the hands making 3 or going down in 3. IMPS While I really want to pass the thrill of the game bonus (even nvul) will probably override my sensibilities and convince me to bid 4H and just hope the opps cannot x when things do not look so good for us.

Wank feels slam is in the picture while I do not but Wank is spot on that we have a superb hand given the bidding (if we had no wasted values in spades including the ace I would be a lot more bullish about slam). What p did NOT bid is just as important as what p bid. We know after the 2nd x that p is invitational + so our decision is greatly simplified. Is pass reasonable? I would be surprised if we score 500 often and that will most likely be offset by the occasional disaster of the opps making. Pass may well work much better t Mp where the sheer number of +200 makes up for the occasional -umptyump. At IMPS this seems like a very bad case of risk vs reward were we are trying for +200 and totally dismissing the +130 or more we can achieve at 4m (making that +200 seem much more frail than before) Is the 4 level really all that unsafe?? We expect [p to have around 10HCP for their 2nd x (as short spades) On average they will most likely hold AKQJ spread out some way over the non spade suits. A careful inspection. With no spade losers their 10hcp + our 9HCP = 19 out of the remaining 30 so the opps have 11 and would need toscore 4 tricks to set us that is probably close to impossible thus making the 4 level seem VERY safe (if we are in the right strain). How about the 5 level? If we take a careful look at the AKQJ probability we will see that there are very few of those that will allow us to go set at 5m (if we are in the right strain). The risk vs reward of 5m seems particularly slanted in favor of reward especially when vulnerable. So since bidding seems better than passing what other strains are available? 3N seems suicidal with a single stop I also wonder if there are any hands that fit the bidding where 3n makes and 5m does not. Not only that but there are tons of hand types where 3n might easily go down 2 where 5m makes (x KTxx Axxx QJxx). 5m should be the target contract and the right continuation should be 4N telling p to choose the best strain taking into consideration we cannot hold more than 5Dia (we would bid 5d)or 3Clu (we would bid 5c).

I have to admit I would just play a small club toward dummy making it look to all the world I mean to ruff clubs. The club J might work but the small club seems a much more likely way to lull the opps to sleep.

icky holding in diamonds while the spades are ok need specific heart help to keep even 3sx from being a disaster opposite bupkus for the opps. No real problem with 3s bid but don't be surprised if p gets carried away.

so what happened after club ACE followed by a small club for N to ruff (preventing a later ruffing finesse against you club J) and p innocently trying to cash the dia AK (never suspecting you would hide support from them)? did declarer try to finesse N for the heart K or just play for the drop I am curious?

n sort of lost control and bid the same values over and over and over paying little/no attention what their poor p was bidding. n was incredibly lucky to catch such a good hand from south. QJx QJx KJxxx Jx is an 11 count where 6n has virtually no chance and can be set from the top. There is no reason from the bidding to assume the s hand is even this good how about xxx QJx Kxxxx Jx or would south need at least the spade Q to bid as they did? N has a nice hand loaded with controls and possibly 1 slam move was warranted but that move was probably 4n over 2n not 4c (unless 4c had a special meaning of which we are unaware.

Vastly superior since it only requires a 32 trump break. The best setting up the dia suit can come up with is the same 32 trump break and dia also breaking 32 + a small chance of surviving a 41 trump split held by lho.

it is always better to invest 1 more level of bidding when strain is in doubt. In this case I would use 2s to show the heart shortness and average to minimum type hand and 2n to show near top of range and shortness in hearts with lots of controls just in case this makes responder rethink game prospects (even in hearts). 4H an obvious super accept. 3c 3d 3h heart fit not max SSGT C D S respectively.

2h is merely an expression of a reasonable place to play opposite a minimum non fitting auction. While 6 hearts would be nice 5 decent hearts is fine like this hand. Bypassing 2h risks losing the heart suit and even worse a heart game opposite many merely reasonable opening bids. It is true that 2s might play better than 2h if opener is short but probably not much better and if opener runs we will have a vastly superior idea on where to settle. I would not run the risk of a 2H bid K2 87432 QJ QJ32 (2s) though I would with K2 JT982 xx QJ32 but would not have much heartache for anyone that passed 2c.

cyber 2016 new years resolution : ok ok we all get it you are the best don't post until at least one other person does just kidding wd HNY ALL

trump A 4s bid in precision is pretty similar to a direct 4s standard with significantly less risk of missing slam due to the power limitations of the 1s bid. AKxx Qxxx xxxx x or some such. I would be pretty happy with almost any lead from dummy so it seems best to start with a trump and at least try to cut down on the inevitable ruffs. There is also little to no chance we are going to wreck partners trump holding. I do not have much faith we are going to set this so I rate a trump as maybe high 30's% to low 40's% and anything else essentially a crap shoot with odds under 20%

TWO lop depending on what happens at trick 1 1. small from dummy and rho plays small win the A 2. small spade to K 3. small club intending to play the club T (assuming it loses to the J or Q) 4. duck 2nd dia (they are almost surely splitting 34) 5. win 3rd dia (verifying 43 split). we now can lead another club toward the 9 and have our 75% shot at a club trick 1 small from dummy and rho inserts the Q (strong chance of Qx unblocking) duck 2. win 2nd dia in dummy and now go for 33 hearts (ducking a heart all around) and if that fails try playing rho for club A

If 2/1 (ie 1n was forcing) I would echo the slightly upgraded 3 card limit raise and subside If sayc (ie 1n was non forcing) I would assume a 5+ card dia fit Honor x in spades a side singleton and not much else. 4s giving us a chance to play there if you had 6 semi cruddy spades. I would try 4n (rkc spades) and if p can produce 2 slam should have a great shot

pass I do not see the thrill of a vul 3d bid that might easily turn out to be xx x Axxxx xxxxx on offense. If the bidding stops in 2 h/s I can always back in with 3d. The only thing a 3d bid might accomplish here is pushing the opps into a making game they might not bid left to their own devices. If p can pipe in their with something extra then we can show some extra life.

what more could south want but a gf partner with 5 hearts 3 spades and all of the controls to take control? Seems like 4n is the way to go (4h???) and try to settle in 6h when you are missing a key card (asssuming p will let you missing the AKQJ:) with playing the hand it will be much safer from a dia lead perspective.

looks good to me

deleted duplicate post