gszes

The reason noone thinks 3h shows heart support is that is was far too easy to just bid 3d over the x of 2d (4d self splinter for spades). While I am generally unhappy with the conclusions drawn about the nature of the E hand, I can certainly understand W passing 3h in light of the fact that a 3d bid was a huge standout with heart support and all else was searching for something else and apparently open to interpretation in a way that makes passing 3h a viable option (though why a pass is acceptable after the 3c cue is beyond me)

being in 6 with a 9 card trump suit missing the Q and another key card is normally a recipe for a bad score anyway add this to knowing p has at least 9 cards in the minors (and thus a ton of wasted power) and bidding this slam is umm (how to be charitable here) optimism carried to an extreme. the reason for playing for the drop is because it sounds like this hand will be impossible to make unless I can do a ruffing finesse in hearts against lho and for that to work i need 22 spades.

While I am still not certain the club T was suit preference (so few clubs out) what club did declarer play at trick 1 (it can make a huge difference)

dia J with most of the opps power being with rho anything but a dia carries with it a huge risk of giving away a badly needed trick to the opps. The dia J can cost but only if rho has AKQ and gets some immediate pitches we could have won otherwise. Yes rho can hole AQ or KQ and a dia lead will be non productive at best but there are many more holdings where the dia J wil be safe even if not usually a huge producer of tricks. A low club with 5 clubs just seems like a play with a tiny chance of success that carries the greatest risk of disaster. A small heart is probably similar but at least it has a better chance of being a quick trick taker (maybe even setting an otherwise unbeatable hand) with the heart A being less so and a fair amount less risk than a small heart). If i had only 4 clubs vs 5 i think a low club would offer a much greater chance of trick taking for the risk involved (similar to the heart A but better since it requires less from p to be successful.

lets us assume (unless your 4h bid is strictly conventional) your p will not bid 4h needing you to have 3 aces to make game for your 12 14 nt (unless they are preempting with a very weak hand - xxxxxxxx xxx xx. Your 3 aces and 4 hearts are huge for partner and any reasonable 4h bid will probably have little trouble making 5h. The problem is 5H has to right close to 70% of the time to be right 650 vs 500 +4 650 vs 200 +10 -200 vs + 200 -9 -200 vs + 500 -12 Opps chances of making 4s are very small and at -25 the occurence is mainly diluted due to relative obscurity. 5h does eliminate that worrisome -25. Is there any way to have it all??? nige1 suggests 4N and the imp scoring tends to agree with him. A spade lead (a huge favorite) will score up for our side 2 spades 5 hearts and 2 aces needing only 1 more heart or 1 side trick to make 10 tricks. This bid completely eliminates the worrisome -25 and will probably score ten tricks far more often then hearts will score 11. we will probably go -200 anytime p has made a hugely preemptive call since they will pull (4sx or 4n) to 5h but those hands are probably less than 10% and we will never set 4s two tricks anyway so -9 is our worst result there. The rest of the time (when we dont go down 1) we will score up somewhere between + 3 and +10 with 4n having to be right only about 60% of the time to break even impwise. IMO 4n=10 5h=8 x=5 p=0(it only costs 0/1 imp if the opps can make it and picks up 2 to (6 when they dont and making will be rare)

I would be more worried about trumps splitting 50 but I will deal with the stated 41 break (while not specified it is almost assuredly with west - a passed hand holding 1 heart honor and the club A needs a lot of spades for a penalty x) and LOP. exit with the spade Q. It matters not which opp wins the trick but lets assume it is west. <<<If both opps duck the spade Q merely play the A and start playing good diamonds the opps can never win more than 2 spades (to go along with club A)>>>. if they return a spade u win in hand and play another spade to the A (opp has 1 trump left) and play dia until west decides to ruff and the dummy is good with club K as entry. if they return a dia win and pitch a club and keep playing dia (pitching clubs until west ruffs--note that all your clubs are now good) if w returns a clubwin in hand spade to the A and a spade back to your hand draw the last trumps and you claim with good clubs. if they return a heart ruff in dummy cash the spade A and the club K now play dia until west ruffs win the trump heart or club return in hand pull the last trump and claim. In the unlikely event East is the one with the long trumps using this LOP gives you a fair chance of making 5 (though east will probably have to make a mistake).

majors nt minors there is no reason we cannot search for 3n via 3s even with no partnership agreements whatsoever. if p has "stuff" in spades and a min 5d may not be very good either so we search for our most likely plus. If p cannot stop spades we are in great position to consider slam exploration and we have saved some bidding space. the problem with 4s (sorry mikeh) is that 3n might be our last makeable spot and we are bypassing it on sheer optimism p cannot stop spades. a direct 5d has a problem also in that slam wil be impossible to bid if p has 2/3 small spades and anything above a min extra for ex xxx AQx Kxxx KJx and all it takes is xxx Ax Kxxx AKxx to make a grand.

agree wholeheartdely :) there is also no guarantee p will have any power and 4s may be our best spot possible. there is no need to distort the spade length with 4n when we have a nive 5c bid available if weak p happens to bid 4d.

sounds like a good plan i looked at hand 2 second and much prefer 2n vs x since i could be getting my self in a lot of hot water if p wants to play clubs. as an aside----if this were MP i would still use 3c stayman but i would pass the 3d or 3h bid since there isnt as much need to push for game.

trick 1 win club A trick 2 low club toward J (a quick nod to lho if they win the K) but lho cant really hurt me Im more worried about rho ruffing:((((( trick 3 if rho returns a club pitch a dia while lho ruffs trick 4 win the assumed dia return trick 5 heart a trick 6 heart ruff trick 7 top club pitching other dia dummy has KJ void T9x Q AT8xx x void void I should be able to take the rest of the tricks no matter what lho does at this point even if they started with Qxxx of spades. Ill be down if lho started with Qxxx xxxxxx xx x distribution but thats about all:))

pass p is exceedingly short in clubs but could find no call over 3c this severly limits p power though there is no reason to assume it drastically reduces their chances of having very long diamonds. next we see 4h and that means p has a good chance of being very short in hearts also further reinforcing the probability they have very long diamonds and also a very weak hand. P probably has some minimal spade support but if we picture a decent hand like Qxxx xx Kxxxxx x do we have good play for 4s??? we lose the first 2 tricks to ruffs and we still have the trump A along with a heart and 2 other club losers to take care of. thats down 2 on a hand where the opps are going to lose 2s 2h and 1d and thats assuming we arent x. I think it is too dangerous to bid on here since we could just as easily be turning a + 50/100 for a -500/800 and p needs a much better hand for us to score + 620. IMO pass at this vulnerability. at favorable I would bid 4s not so much because I expected to make it but because there is significantly less risk involved and it is extra insurance against the opps making 4h. As an aside even if x were penalty I would not use it on this hand we have only 2 "sure" tricks and it seems that we may be all too easily endplayed into playing spades from our hand.

i bid 4c here but i am not happy about it--- I feel our side would have been much better served if we had started with x over 2d (to show the rounded suits) and now i would have an easy 3h bid. there is just too much potential here for game to sit idly by in 3d, The worst part about our 4c bid is it does not pay sufficient homage to our 6c heart suit where our most likelt best chance at game lies. Lets just hope we land on our feet and improve our score over 3d :)))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))) As a further note: If i had started with x over 2d I would probably continue with 4h over 4d which shows just how much flexibility the original x would have offered.

interesting han and mikeh see eye to eye on a ton of issues and that usually leads to good chemistry

count me in if needed

trick 1 win in dummy trick 2 spade A trick 3 ruff spade low (odds of rho having 6 spades to KJ and a dia honor and not bidding 2 or 3 spades at favorable kind of slim) trick 4 small trump to dummy trick 5 ruff a spade high. we now know if spades will come home even if it takes a ruffing finesse against rho when lho held Jx spades and 2 or less trumps. if trump 22* if trumps 31** assuming spades come home trick 6 low club to king trick 7 ruff or ruffing finesse (if rho ducks ruff trick 8 then continue as below except skip trick 10) trick 8 ruff a club trick 9 pull last trump trick 10 spade trick 11 claim 2 of last 3 * sigh nothing is ever easy so here we are with little hope and less entries assuming someone didnt have the QJ doubleton of clubs we need 2 diamonds so we are hoping for 33 diamonds or if 42 rho has KQ. The only thing working for us is the opps cannot return a spade when they get in or the hand is over. trick 6 low club to K trick 7 dia toward the J. if it holds the hand is over so if LHO wins we know rho didnt begin life with KQxx so we need 33 diamonds and the play proceeds from however lho defends. If they return a club trick 8 win A (pitch a dia) trick 9 dia A trick 10 ruff a dia trick 11 ruff a spade trick 12 dia pitch spade trick 13 ruff a club If they return a dia trick 8 win as cheaply as possible trick 9 knock out remaining top dia claim via dia spade ruff club ruff and club A ** Oh great 31 trumps now we have even less options but we still have the advantage of neither opp being able to play a spade when they win a trick. Our only chances are: (my brain hurts cant think of any other possibilities) lho rho K(any 4 spades) x KQ (any 5 clubs) 2(non K spades) xxx Txxx (any 4 clubs). K(any 4 spades) xxx KQ (any 3 clubs) 2(non K spades) x Txxx (any 6 clubs). K(any 4 spades) xxx xxx (any 2 clubs) 2(non K spades) x KQx (any 7 clubs). K(any 4 spades) x xxx (any 4 clubs) 2(non K spades) xxx KQx (any 5 clubs). We know who has the 3 card trump suit We cannot cater to both holdings so it seems we must go for the holding where rho has KQx in diamonds since that seems way more likely than lho holding KQ tight. the LOP are very similar trick 6 club to K trick 7 dia toward AJ if it holds the hand is over trick 8 dia A trick 9 club A (pitch a dia) trick 10 ruff a club trick 11 ruff a spade trick 12 claim 1 more so we assume rho inserts a dia honor and we duck trick 7 if rho returns a heart trick 8 win in dummy trick 9 another heart(pitch club) trick 10 dia toward AJ trick 11 dia trick 12 dia trick 12 club A if rho returns a dia trick 8 win the J trick 9 heart to dummy trick 10 heart (pitch club) trick 11 dia to A trick 12 dia trick 13 club A if rho returns a club trick 8 win the A pitch a spade trick 9 heart to dummy trick 10 heart (pitch club) trick 11 dia toward AJ trick 12 another top dia trick 13 take last dia that was wayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy too much work

If p cannot bid again we will have missed nothing. If we bid 2s now will we accept an invite to game ?? Not me---so what is the upside of an immediate 2s bid? It allows lho to x for the red suits instead of bidding just one of them (if they have both) im with fluffy here (pass) 2c undoubled might easily be our best spot ---doubled is probably a pipe dream (rhm) but it is difficult to not at least take a chance on playing in your best spot. This is especially true in this case where i can successfully back into the bidding with 2s if the situation warrants it and p may then have a very good idea of my hand type. Mikeh what the hey is CHO?????

another way of looking at your hand is there is a very strong probability your side has a club fit and with your double stopper in dia (and probable lead) your side should have an excellent shot at game opposite many minimum opening bids. for ex KTxx AT9xx x QJx and many would not open that hand You dont just have ten points you have an excellent ten--for ex lets say your hand looked like A65 K QJT3 87654 now u have a cruddy ten and game chances are considerably diminished. dont just look at your hand try to picture your partners hand as well and see if you can imagine your best spot. On this hand with game looking like a good bet you will have to check the vulnerability to decide x or 3n (or even 2n).

in case of emergency break glass:) ill be around near game time just in case.

No defense almost no chance I will be giving up -800 to nothing. odds of a succesful contract for our side other than clubs even less. This is your one chance to describe this 7 trick 1 suited hand at this vulnerability (classic). This hand prefers maximum preemption vs worrying too much about scientific bidding. Think of it as imp insurance.

P* rates to have around 7 hcp and 3 spades (no 3s bid) (no xx) We have little in the way of defense and a singleton in opps suit ideal conditions to consider a sacrifice. *Within that range the most common result seems to be where we go down 3. Down 2 is pretty scarce and there are many more hands where (see gnasher) down 4 (5?) is quite achievable. The probable reward of +(120-150) just isn't sufficient to make up for the possible -(180-480) that 4s will get us in. This is a much closer question at MP where we only need the down 2 or 3 to outnumber the -4/5 to probably come out ahead. A small amount of hands p will have bid 2s with 2 aces and a flat hand. We could actually set 4h making the IMP 4s bid much worse and taking away from any possible MP advantage.

my best guess something like Axxxx Qx Kxxxx x

I am unsure what any action by me would be trying to accomplish opposite a partner that could not bid over my 1c. There are indeed some tiny amount of holdings where 4s 5c or 5d can make but there are a whole ton where 4h has no play and we have nothing. The silence by lho can easily be because they had no good call after we opened 1c but they sure would love to place a red card on the table if we peep anything now. IMO our best chance at MP is to go quietly and hope we are not hammered too badly or the opps got too high and we gain a bundle setting 4h with a penalty x adding little or nothing to our score. Why risk a possible horrid score (4h making eeep) when it appears we strongly rate to not make anything??????????? AT IMPS I would bid 4S merely becasue I wanted to limit the damage in case 4H was making not because I felt we would make anything.

due to entry problems we do not want to be at the mercy of a 33 spade break. Since the opps are going to get a trump trick and can knock out our extra entry prematurely (by returning a dia) it seems we need to rely on a hybrid play. trick 1 win (yay) trick 2 spade A trick 3 ruff a spade trick 4 club A trick 5 club to J This LOP leaves us in position to make 6 even if the club K drops singleton. This line fails when rho has Kx (with 4 spades) 16% there is a singleton T in either hand 5.75% The proposed line 1 fails when rho has Kxx (with 4 spades) 18% Kx (with 4 spades) 16% K 4% while it makes when the club T is singleton in either hand 5.75% the overall % chance of success is about 15% less since both lines need 33 or 42 spades to succeed. Line 2 is definitley easier to calculate it fails whenever lho has the club K and spades fail to break 33 32% it fails to any singleton T (have to lose 2 clubs) 5.75% it fails to lho with singleton K (have to lose 2 clubs) 2.9% note that all lines fail when trumps 50 or 41 with one opp having KTxx so they were not considered in the calculations (relevant cases).

sometimes preempts work--to take action here invites disaster with only some small prospect for success. P passed over 2s with what seems like extremely short spades so our window of success would be 5-8 hcp and other wise balanced. pretty much any other holding and we could be turning a plus into a full blown disaster. I will try to fight another day pass

4c has to be a cue bid searching for dia slam--i showed my suit surely i do not wish to play in a suit where one of the opps has 5 of them--take advantage of the space the opps give you.