dellache

Why did West lead a dangerous club under Jxxx and not a Spade ? What was the bidding ?

The relevant ♥distributions for West are QJ, Q, and QJx. Unless West is a very imaginative player I doubt he will think about playing the Q at trick 2 with QJx. If we call p the probability that West plays Q with QJx, p is probably very small. Like in restricted choices problems, say West plays the Q from QJ stiff half of the time. The "probability" q that West has the stiff Q is something like q = 1/(1/2 + 1 + 3p). In my estimation on how expert players play, I guess that p << 1/6 so that West in that case will have the stiff Q more than half of the time. Now for the clubs : unless West has gone nuts, he his not playing the ♣9 from Q9(x) when I could well have KTxxx. So he has QT9(x). And again I doubt he would play back the 9 from QT9 third because in the remote case where pard has Kx and declarer is inspired enough to duck it that would pose an insolvable problem to pard (ducking with Kx ?). I think any reasonable player would play T from QT9 third. What about QT9x ? Now West knows East is stiff/void and the ♣9 looks like a very reasonable play : you can't fool pard, you may score a ruff, and declarer will have something to think about at tricks 3 and 4. So all in all I play both the Hearts and Clubs to be 4-1. If West found the very imaginative (and brilliant) defense of (1) taking the Queen with QJx, and (2) playing the 9 back in QT9, he deserves to score his 10/13 imps.

It may seem against the odds, but [3] I now play the ♣Jack, and when it scores the trick, [4] I finesse in Hearts, playing East for ♠Qxx+ ♥Jxxx ♦Hxx+ ♣x. I'll explain why in a later post. I think this is a close decision though.

The best play in Hearts for 3 or 4 tricks is the same : [1] 1st round finesse, [2] then if it failed cash ♥A, and [3] act accordingly. I don't see any reason to reject this play, and I do it at trick 2 ([1] Win Spade in dummy, [2] Run ♥9). 1. If West takes this 9, I will play Clubs for 5 tricks, and play Hearts as stated above. 2. If the 9 takes the trick, I play a 2nd Heart. Say East inserts (best def) and West now discards. Now just play ♣ to the Jack (catering for Qxxx by West) and repeat trump finesse.

We play (9)10-13(14). But with (4333) we just open 12-14. We have found out that it is difficult for oppos to penalize in that case (we stay conservative with 4333, because when LHO doubles, it often leads to a 4-3 fit only, easier to penalize and meaning blood at the 2-level). Doing that with less than 9 is also asking for trouble, because now (1) West is very likely to have a double, (2) they are likely to take a good decision in their 23+ HCP zone : either doubling you (if pard doesn't have a 5 card suit, the 4-4 plays badly with 18- HCP when they lead trumps) or bidding game that will usually make, because of friendly distributions (you are balanced).

I'd never want to be in 6♦ with those hands given the bidding. I'd just hope they don't lead a trump in 5♦ !

A (hopefully) quick 4♣.

West dealer : 1♦ 1♥ (4+♦, unbal (10)11-21 / Nat 4+♥, or ® 11+) 2♣ 2♠ (11-15, 4+♣, includes xx45 / GF®) 3♣ 3♦ (xx54 / ®) 3♥ 4♣ (2254 / ® setting diamonds) 5♣ ... (max hand, 2 Keys, ♦Q, ♣K / ...) West has clearly xx xx AQxxx AKxx, and may have any Jack (not Q♣, he would upgrade (bid 1♠ ART over 1♥) and not bid 2♣). Now 7♦ is wrong sided, and we would bid it when we need some action (KO match, trailing) : it is OK on a non ♠ lead (needs 3-2 Diamonds but not much more !) and bad otherwise. At MP we can right-side the contract in 6NT and we bid that happily. AT Imps, we would usually end the bidding at 6♦. East dealer : We just bid it yesterday with my pard (he was relaying, I knew the hand) 1♥ 2♣ (5+♥, 10-21(22) / GFR) 2♥ 2♠ (4+♠ / ®) 2NT 3♣ ((15) 16-21 / ®) 3♦ 3♥ (45xx 15-19 / ®) 4♣ 4♦ (4531 15-18 / ® set ♥ !) 4♠ 4NT (3 Keys, 17-18 / ®) 5♥ 7♦ (♥Q ♦K / Right sided, luckily) This is a rare bad case for our relays, since only the 4531 15+ finishes description above 3NT. We don't use an end signal, and the possibilities over 4♣ are to set Hearts (4♦), Spades (4NT), or Diamonds (5♣). The strategy is often to set a fake economic trumps suit (and change it afterwards) in those cases, after checking that we can control the scan (which is 98% the case). Here 7♦ by the describing hand is a good proposal as (1) East will usually have HJ or SQ to qualify for the 17-18 range (2) ♠lead is UNLIKELY, and (3) a small slam is at least bid at the other tables.

1. Whatever the meaning of DBL, I pass this. LHO is gonna bid 3/4 ♥ and this is fine. (Note: I certainly wouldn't have Xed 2♥) 2. Now pard doubles 3♥ ? I would not have Xed in first place, so nothing makes sense to me, and this has became a guessing game. I would not have the guts to sit this at the table (4♣), though it's probably right in average. Maybe it's just a matter of preserving partnership integrity now : what is best in that respect ? Risking 3♥-X making or risking going down some hundreds at the 4(5) level ?

Spider system : 1♣ BAL 15-19 or clubs Unbal 11-21 1N Relay, 12-16 no 5cM, or 17+ ANY 2♣ 15-16/17 BAL, or 11-14 UNBAL 2♦? 2♠ 4+♥ 2N? 3♣ x4x5, 11-14 3♦? 3N 3415 4♣? (sets ♣) 4♦ 11-12 4♥? 5N = 2 Keys, ♣Q, no outside Kings, and either ♥Q or (♦Q+♠Q) 7♥ (West has shown Axx Qxxx x KQxxx, bidding 7N at pairs is OK in a strong field).

I'd be in 5♦, playing short Club. We start 1♣ 3♦, showing INV Hand w/ 6 good diamonds. Finding the slam would have been too difficult, no way for us to find the perfect match afterwards.

3♥, the hand is not that good. We might have to ruff Diamonds with a high trump. It might be difficult to set the Spade suit. BTW was 2♠ the correct bid ?

The genuine line seems to make declarer's small trumps separatly, hoping West has 3♠ and 8+(♥+♣). It implies ♦ shortness by West (usually doubleton, or a stiff Q/K given the lead). [1] Ruff, [2-3]AK♠, [4]10♣, [5]♥ruff, [6789] ruff the last club in dummy, [10] ruff ♥. We plan to score the 10 first tricks. Playing like this, it's unlikely that oppos will make a mistake (they ruff a club at some point when the line wouldn't normally work)). We can also hope for a mistake (play a Diamond at trick 2, hoping to ruff a Diamond later) or a genuine block but it seems less likely to happen. It probably depends on oppos strength too.

If LHO bids 2♥, I'll assume that oppos have 8 Hearts, hence pard is very likely to hold 4315 or 4324. I wan't to be in 2♠ now. OTOH if they don't have a Heart fit, I'd rather defend the hand.

Hi Denis, glad to see you have joined the forum :). I'll go against the majority of bidders so far : I'd pass this. No strong feelings about this, but : - my Heart holding is bad (stiff honors) ; - my ♦J looks worthless ; - my overall strength/distribution relative to "our suits" (blacks) is poor ; - my Spades are awful ; - the spade fit is not guaranteed (3424, 3415 possible by CHO) ; If opener rebids 2♥, I'll balance w/ 2♠. If he bids 1N or 2m, I'll be happy to defend.

[hv=pc=n&e=sq5h7d653ckjt8532&d=s&v=b&b=7&a=1sd3s4cpp4sppdppp]133|200|3S = Invite, not PRE[/hv]

Unlikely ? Say West takes the ♦Q and leads his stiff Heart. I can play ♠Ace and Spade to King. If East follows suit, I claim. Otherwise, I get back to Hand with my Diamond, ruff a club, and play the master Diamond from dummy. True, I go down in the unlikely (but possible) case where West had J9xx x Qx KQJxxx. Nice hand !

I'd blame the pair : if you cannot stop in 4NT after 4♦, you don't want to languish in 5♦ at pairs. 5♦ making is not going to score much in average. Somebody has got to bid a probably bad 6♦ (West or East or both :P ) to save the board.

At the table, I'd just play the ♦9 back. West will take that and : - play a 3rd Diamond ? East ruffs and has to play a Club back (otherwise claim). Now heart to Ace, club ruff, ♠King, Diamond from dummy, claim. - play a Heart ? I take it, Draw trumps, and claim ; - play a Club ? Ruff, and play Diamond yourself to count the suit. I guess there's something obvious I've missed.

Did I lazily play the ♣9 at trick 2 ? Too bad, the Jack would have allowed me to get interesting information. For instance, the King by West would place East with AQ, etc. (I don't believe they would falsecard at trick 2 w/ this layout). But if West had taken my J with the Q... I would certainly place him with AQ, so no ♥Q. Anyway, now I play on diamonds for 2 reasons : - the math says it's slightly better ; - play so far is more consistant with West having the ♥Q : if he didnot have it he would certainly fear that I could get a discard on Hearts and not release the trump control with the ♦Ace in dummy. So I would play Diamond to the King now (no Diamond lead), Ace and small toward the Ten.

I don't see why East ought to have the ♦Ace a tad more than West : as you said before, EW went wild on the strong club, so anyway East HCP count means nothing. OTOH, there are 2 other factors that make the ♦Ace more likely in the West hand : -vacant places : 10 VP (West) Versus 8 VP (East), that's a 11% difference in favour of West having the Diamond Ace ; - East "might" have bid 3♠ because of extra shape : it also increases the probability (VP again) of West having the crucial Ace. So what is more relevant : vacant places (I think so) or the fact that we may think that East would not Dare to bid 1S/3S with less than 8 HCP ? Cheers,

Not true. If East has A(J/T)xx to West (J/T)87, you make by playing low from dummy even if East has the ♦Ace (blocking the Spade suit).

I'd always pass nonvul, I'm at the 2 level, and game is surely borderline at best. +110 is sure, I protect my plus score, and don't try to get the 6 extra imps. I'd bid 3♥ VUL though.

I'd play the Queen. If LHO had ♠(Q/J)87, and East the ♦Ace, too bad, but I feel it is more likely that West has one of the pointed Aces, and one of the 3 possible 7xx. Difficult to infer something from this wild interference anyway (where are the 2♠/3♠ coming from ?)

This is indeed an interesting idea, if South always plays the ♥Q when he has it (you play 75% + extrachances like Q8xxx or QT8 in the North hand). South might not play the Queen when he has Qxxx (sometimes fearing A10xx in you hand, depending on what he knows about the HCP-situation). But then also, what about the tempo ? Looks like a nice "practical" line, but I'd still be nervous about it. South is broke in Diamonds. If you took 10 seconds when dummy went down, he can count these tricks for you : 2♠, 3♥(if you have AK and he plays Queen), 3♣, 4♦. I expect thus that good opposition will duck the ♥Q smoothly *more* than 10% of the time when you play small toward Jack, making the psychological line borderline at best ? I admit I like your line, very worth considering depending on the table feeling. I would have missed it at the table.