Jinksy

What would W's 2N have been? How sound are P's openings in this position?

Pass. They bid freely, and I haven't got much to surprise them with, nor have they cheated us out of any game

If X showed club support, I'll bid 5. 4♠ looks likely to make and we're certainly not getting rich defending it; I'd guess 5♣ will be odds against but with some play.

How weak is weak, and what lead (if any) would X ask for?

Showing 4 spades and a stiff club? Not the best description of the east hand in my book.

X. I suspect our best contract will score better than 4♠X, but I don't much like our chances of finding it.

As in you still think it's a clear X? Or as in you had second thoughts?

I've doubled the passers, before looking down and noticing a sudden clustering of some the forum's strongest players (where have you been, guys?) doing the opposite. I defer to the crowd, but I thoroughly don't get it. There's some principle I'm missing here - all Kenberg's 'bad' features look like classic reasons to not overcall unless you really have a compelling reason to, all his 'good' ones look like tiebreaks for hands you're on the fence on. I don't hate a 1♠ overcall, but having not done so before, I don't see the reason to come in now. P's most likely holding in diamonds must be something like xxx, so if he's sitting there with 4(+) spades, he's likely to have as good a reason to bid as we do here - better, if the bidding comes round to him, since two of the main things I fear by speaking now is getting penalised on a misfitting part score and just helping them make a thin game. I agree with Straube - the only reason that would have occurred to me for doubling now is with 4 spades long clubs (maybe 'extras', though since I couldn't bid 1N or an offshape X the first time round, I struggle to imagine a hand with enough extras to justify it on a 4nn4).

I would prob open 4♣ with this. This is the opps' hand, unless partner happens to show up with AT9 AK98x AKx Ax opposite, and what are the chances of that..? Opposite my 4♣, I'd bid 5.5♣, planning to apologise to P either way. Opposite most people's 3♣ I'd bid 3♥ and prob end in 6. Opposite pass, I'd take my P to a nursing home. You bunch of cravens :P

[hv=pc=n&e=sjt9hqt98dj953ckq&d=n&v=0&b=1&a=pp1cpp]133|200[/hv] The opps play 5542 openings (though would it make a diff to you if they played 5533?). IMP pairs.

The full hand: [hv=pc=n&s=s942htdkqt8652ct7&w=saqthkj532d3ca984&n=skj85hq64d97ckq52&e=s763ha987daj4cj63&d=e&v=e&b=6&a=p4ddppp]399|300[/hv] I passed, and thought at the time it had led to a bad result, though it turns out it was almost flat (0.1 to us). 4♦ was one off, 4♥ takes some work from declarer on a black suit lead, but I think you should probably make it either on an endplay or just setting up the clubs for a spade pitch.

You can see the colours in the diagram.

[hv=pc=n&e=s763ha987daj4cj63&d=e&v=e&b=6&a=p4ddp]133|200[/hv] IMP pairs.

[hv=pc=n&s=shjt52dqjt96cj764&w=st872hk8dk75cq982&n=sj53haq943d2cakt5&e=sakq964h76da843c3&d=n&v=e&b=9&a=1h1s4hppp]399|300[/hv] IMP pairs. 4♥ is cold, 4♠X is down 1 (and would have made had S had the A♥). Should we have found it? Our overcalls are relatively standard I think - very roughly 9-18 here.

Hint: that is not an anti-science meme.

If 3♦ is natural, I would bid 4♥ in preference to three. P's come in with an unfavourable double at the three level - surely this shows possible game interest? Meanwhile, our crappy 6/40 count seems to have improved to a crappy 6/30 count. How much better a hand can we have for our initial pass?

I feel like both bouncing and getting out for -2(+) undoubled are less likely having gone the slow way. I would have gone with 4♦ over 3, which seems to have better prospects for both.

You might also bounce them from a non-making 4♠ to a non-making 5♦. Also at MPs, if you go two down undoubled or one down doubled in 4♠, you can still get a good score when they were making 3(+) diamonds.

If you open this hand 1♠ playing Acol, you might as well switch to SAYC.

Bill Jacobs had similar stats on his partnerships Fantunes 2-bids. That seems not really relevant to how good weak 2s are, though (Jacobs also records those as being the hands on which his partnership lost the most IMPs).

What's their preempting style in that position? If they regularly do it on a five-card suit, dbl. Else 2N.

What strength?

Yes. So on this occasion you got lucky.

Good point. Hard to think of any way they're going to improve their part score, then.