wyman

Along these lines: Suppose declarer is cashing winners from hand and that it is unclear to the defense whether or not dummy is dead. At some point declarer cashes a trump and says to dummy "play anything." Now suppose that one or the other defender pipes up and asks for a specific card to be played from dummy (or calls the director first and proceeds to ask that a specific card be played from dummy). What are the UI implications now if the partner of the defender who specified the card gains the lead?

3H. At this point, I just want to make sure partner leads a heart.

At MP, I'll bid 4D and smash 4S if they bid it.

2C-2D-7D so you can go to the bar.

Also, I don't know, Mike, whether you are suggesting that theism requires the refusal to think critically. I would strongly disagree with that. I think that even "religious belief" is far too broad for your statement to apply. Of course we could nitpick some tenets of Christianity, for example, that require the refusal to think critically, but if we start to shift more weight toward all Judeo-Christian teaching as parable and less toward the literal, things start to jive quite a bit more with our -- or at least my -- sense of reality. I have a hard time going to church, because I don't believe a lot of the stories, and because I have a hard time talking to people who take them all at face value. But if I think about the stories as fictional, and if I imagine an old Jewish man writing down a number of half(more or less)-truths as a community guidebook, as a way to get the village in line, to curb "bad" behavior and set a moral code, all while injecting a little fear of God into them, everything checks out in my mind. I try to listen and understand what the author was getting at. That the stories are false doesn't mean that God doesn't exist. Really, it provides no data at all. So we're back to prior. And I don't think that a prior that favors God's (or Gods') existence is totally unreasonable. If I believe God exists but that the stories in the bible are false, does that make me non-religious -- or does it make me religious and hence exhibiting a refusal to think critically? On a personal note, I've applied a uniform prior to the existence of God, and I've hardly turned my Bayesian crank at all, so I have no idea what's going on out there.

I don't agree with this. We're all solving a Bayesian inference problem with relatively little data*, so our estimates turn out to be mostly prior. *One of the problems is that there are people on both sides who think that there is an overwhelming amount of data, but I think those people are wrong on both sides. I do tend to agree with the folks who provide concrete evidence that such-and-such event couldn't have occurred on such-and-such timeline, but this is not (to me) compelling evidence of the non-existence of God.

It's illegal to throw forward if you are in front of the line of scrimmage. Otherwise throwing by anyone is fine.

You really only have one more, as typically on 4th down teams either punt or kick a field goal; in most parts of the field, the risk of running and failing (hence turning the ball over) is unacceptable. Either you lose a likely 3 points (FG) or you give opps good field position. There are middling field positions where you might be right. Also keep in mind that there's often less interest in doing what's right than in following conventional wisdom. No one's ever been sacked for following conventional wisdom.

1n for me too.

What'd I do? :)

K&r 12.95 fwiw

I'd open 1d at MP. This has to be better than 9 knr and we tend to open a lot of 11s anyway, and this might be my only chance to show 2 suits and not commit us to the 5 level.

Systemic spade here. Systemic diamond my second choice.

This is pretty interesting. My first thought was 1S looking at this, too, but then it seems like (a) I know the strain we're playing in, (b) it's going to be difficult to extract useful bits from partner (we don't really expect him to raise, right? And even if he GFs, what auctions will convince us that we can go slamming?), and © it's very likely that we will be preempted, and while I have a pretty good idea of what I'm planning to do if partner dbls them in 5C, I have little confidence that it's right. I don't think 4S is auto by any means, but I wonder how the 1S folks intend to intelligently use the additional space, and whether they feel it's worth giving the opps room to find their presumably massive fit.

This is why I love han.

Swap partner's minors, and making 4 (!) requires trumps to break. 4S is fine.

kantar says suit agreement is never KC

I'm never playing below 4H on this hand. I'd mini-splinter if I could, but I don't think I'm good enough for 4C. So if I can't bid 3S systemically, I'll bid 4H.

(a) and if you bid 4s with a 5-bagger, GL having partner make an intelligent 6-level decision when we DO bid on. ( b ) I can make a 1 level overcall with a wide range, since it's a 1-level call. X over even 1H may force us to the 2-level. Also, partner may face a 3 or 4-level decision. Then what does he do with an 11 count? ( c ) it's not really subtle, and it's played by many. I'd venture to say that it's pretty standard. Also the idea that your initial tox is 9+ but you're ready to snap me off at the 1-level with 8hcp and Hxx seems unwise. Vulnerable doubled overs are worth 200 apiece you know...

wish we were playing mini-splinters Limit or GF it's really close. I think I want to be in 4S here most of the time, but I don't object to a limit raise. I do object to a constructive raise, though.

Certainly worth more than 13, but not enough for anything but 3N.

It is far more likely that you will have values and spade shortness than a spade stack after 4S. People reserve 4N as 2-suited t/o. Additionally, you can make use of 4N after (4S) X for a variety of things (one approach is that 4N puppets to 5C, and advancer can pass or drop elsewhere, whereas a direct 5X has slam interest opposite a suitable TOX). It's hard for partner to know when to take you seriously, then. Also, routinely doubling into a live auction with 9 HCP will result in -1100s after XX. But it's much safer to double into an auction opps are letting go at 2H. I'd say that our side has offered up spades as a place to play, so X should show spades -- "penalty" might be a misstatement, since I would bid spades (naturally) over 1S with a lot of hands with good spades (a great 4 card suit or any 5 -- X should show a 4 card suit that is not great).

1C-1H; 2D wtp? Actually I guess the problem is "what is going on in the spade suit?" Also subtitle is a card short :) edit: missing the A, K, or Q of clubs, I'd raise hearts directly though.

If the poll asked if you have an STD, would you say no if you had both gonorrhoea and herpes?

I am both happy and sad re: the JW's response to Phil, though. The easy out is "God reveals himself in different ways to different people. Keep your eyes open; he shows himself to everyone" or some such. But it is also a little refreshing that he treats what he's selling as truth, and so rather than ad-libbing, he was honest enough to say that he didn't know and that he'd ask.