foo

You can duck the first 3 ♥s, where's the problem? ♥Q doesn't need to be covered... If opponents start with 3 rounds of ♥, then ♥K becomes the 9th trick and you only need 5 tricks in ♦ anymore. That's a lot easier imo. That might work wonderfully if H's are 5:3 and LHO doesn't have a side entry... Make H's 4:4 or give LHO an entry (say the DQ or DT...) and you are going minus. Since the odds favor LHO having both long H's and a side entry, this ducking 3 rounds of H's plan may not be best...

That's true if nothing is known about the other 3 hands. Given the WJO, it is more likely the missing controls are split between the 2 unknown hands, with a slight vig toward the WJO having the SK. In short, GOP has a decent chance of having the CA or SK+CK. Richard has already mentioned one reason not to assume GOP is short in S's. If LHO has something like 17 HCP, the best strategy for LHO is to pass quietly in tempo and then consider Whacking the final NS contract.

Then go play a safer game and don't cross streets where there are any moving cars. Mostly with regards to =shape=, not values. See my above post. Violently anti-percentage. If you cater your bidding and play this pessimistically, you are not going to score well in most situations. Bridge, particularly matchpoints, is about playing the odds. I know darn well you aren't this conservative in real life or you would not advocate the methods you do! IMHO there are 2 good 2nd calls by Opener here. X and 3N. Pass is not a LA unless Our system is broken (in which case it is getting fixed ASAP after this board). 3N in this auction means "I think We can make 3N". Nothing more. ...and this is =exactly= why the hand most likely to be flat has to be able to put a Red Card on the table for business here. If I had $1 for every point I've collected in penalties over the years from people who think psyching in Our NT or likely to be NT auctions is a good idea, I'd be very rich.

If pard has 9 HCP, either the opps have overcalled in your 9 card fit or you need a new partner. Why?? Given that Opener could have as little as 16 HCP flat, what does Responder do with 33(43) or =4333, and no S Stop with 9 HCP? How about (23)44 and no S stop with 9 HCP? Most pairs are going to play that 1C-(3S)-X shows ~4 H's... The board could actually be a horrible misfit and Our best way of going plus is The Red Card.

Bah humbug. Guessing is when you do not know what action the odds favor. This situation should not be such. I have 19 HCP and 8/12 of the controls. Assuming 4-9 HCP for the 3S WJO, that leaves 13-18 HCP out. GOP's fair share is 6.5-9 HCP and 2 controls. We are likely cold for Game. We are Red, They are White. Unless We can set them >= 4, Our game rates to pay more than penalizing Them. Then take into account what hands Responder =can't= have because they did not make any call other than pass (what do X, 3N, 4S!, etc by Responder here mean?) Now either X or bid 3N depending on which is more likely to pay more and accept whatever happens. Odds are you will at least achieve parity on the board since a= you "know" how to play the hand if in 3N b= everyone else in the field rates to have had a similar problem (1D-(3S)-??) EDIT: I do not think opening the given hand 2N is either necessary or best. You might be control rich for 19 HCP, but where are your tricks? Also, AT tight is not likely to help you establish much in the way of length tricks and you don't have a 5 card suit for such a purpose either. You have ~5 5/12 expected tricks in hand. You need GOP to provide ~3 7/12 to make 3N. ~4 7/12 to make 4M. A 1D opening seems enough.

If RHO opponent has the HA, you are never supposed to make this hand. Therefore, you must assume that LHO has the HA. My bidding comment was =not= about the bidding on this board, but about the unfortunate nasty tendency many players have of not usually (or ever in some cases) considering 5m a legitimate potential contract. I have made no comments about the bidding on this specific board. I will now. You did a very reasonable thing given that you were playing with a pickup pard of unknown to you skill level and did not want to risk a bidding disaster.

1= It is not a "blind guess". 6+ out of 13 of RHO's cards are known to be S's. Therefore any non S card is more likely to be in LHO's hand unless or until other information changes things. 2= C's are not bringing 3N home, so playing on them doesn't help you as much as playing D's potentially does. In addition, since the C hook is very risky, you want to put it off as long as possible and hopefully avoid it all together. All of this argues for playing D's before C's. Given the situation, the best line in D's is as I've stated for the reasons I've given. Suit combination tools like Suit Play do not analyze the play in the context of an entire board. 3= Never take any finesse you can avoid. Never, ever, take any finesse into the danger hand you can avoid.

This is a very nice summarize of everything there is to this hand imo. But if the ♣ finesse looks too attractive and loses, you still have to gather more information about the hand before finessing ♦ blindly one way or another. If you take your first shot at 9 tricks with ♦, you'll be lucky not to have these problems with this deal, but if ♦s only provide for 5 tricks, you can still take a good guess (after running them) which finesse will work (or if you need to cash). To me, the most important thing about this hand is the recognition that RHO is the Danger Hand. You can only afford for RHO to get in as long as you have S stops. That means never take any finesse into RHO that you can avoid. Which means the C finesse for the CK is a Bad Idea. I've since looked at the full board and seen what a perverse WJO RHO has made. Bottom line here is that there is no legitimate way to make 3N if RHO makes the natural HQ lead from QJTxx at any point when LHO is in. As the cards lie, 5m is the game you want to be in. Question is, can you get to it when it is right and play 3N when that is right? If so, then you are well on your way to being a good bidder.

I have called 1m-1M;2m-2om! "NMFish" for a =long= time. Novices seem to fall into the "NMF" meanings for these auctions incredibly easily, and play 1m-1S;2m-2H as a minimum 54?? or 55?? just as easily. So w/ all of the example hands, my rebid as Responder is 2D! and if the auction had been 1D-1S;2D-?? they are all strong enough (GF) that I would bid 3C! ...and because this rebid by Responder could be made w/ =0= cards in that suit, IMHO Active Ethics requires Us to Alert it and explain just that if asked.

I'm "playing fair", and ignoring the rest of this thread to make my 1st response. You have 5 top tricks and need 4 more. C's can only provide 3 of these, so I might as well see if I can establish D's before I touch C's. Dx->DA, then DJ from the board intending to run it if not covered. LineA: DJ holds and D's split 2:3, I go back to my hand w/ SK and play DK. When DQ drops I have 2S's+6D's+1C for 9 tricks. LineB: DJ is covered, I cover with DK, D's are 32 and DT drops. Run D's for same tricks as above. LineC: DJ is covered, I cover with DK, D's are 32 and DT does =not= drop. I immediately put another D on the table counting on LHO to have the HA and perhaps be out of S's. Now I need 2 C tricks or 1H + 1C in addition to 2S's + 5D's. LineD: D's are x:QTxx and RHO does not cover DJ. After running DJ, I come back to my hand with SK and play DK. I now play Cx to the =CA=, since I can not afford to let RHO in (he is the "Danger Hand"). I'm counting on LHO to out of S's and to have the CK. I now have 6 tricks and need 3 more. I play the CT next and hopefully begin endplaying LHO over and over again (if by some miracle the CK is stiff, the hand becomes easy). LineE: D's are QTxx:x and I find this out when I put the DJ on the felt ( :( ). I let LHO win the DQ and see what happens next. E1: S return means win the SK, =never= risk letting RHO in again and go back to the strategy of repeatedly endplaying LHO. E2: non S return makes things easier (even HA and then a H since I will still have S's stopped). In almost all cases, I am avoiding the C finesse unless I absolutely need to take it since I am doing everything I can to minimize the risk of letting RHO in.

OK, "Drop Dead" AKA "Suicide" Stayman and "Garbage" Stayman are two different conventions. DDS AKA SS is when you bid Stayman with a weak hand and =4441 or (43)51 or 1C543 or 2C443 (risky) =AND YOU PASS ANY REBID OPENER MAKES= This is why you _must_ have short C's when you do this. The idea is that Responder's hand stinks for 1N so you are forcing Opener to play in 2ofasuit. GS is the same basic idea about escaping from 1N. However, in this convention Responder only passes if Opener rebids a Major. If the auction goes 1N-2C;2D-?? Responder can now either pass or bid 2M (in theory showing 55 or 54 in the Majors and a =WEAK= hand by agreement). The cost of GS is that Responder loses the ability to use 1N-2C;2D-2M to show good hands since you've agreed that this sequence shows bad hands. I recommend DDS AKA SS. GS has a high cost. Especially if you are playing Strong NT's where the expectation is that Responder will have at least an Invitational hand most of the time when GOP Opens 1N. Pick your poison and be aware that YMMV.

1. How would you and your favorite pard bid the following set? ♠A♥ATx♦KQT9♣AK8xx ♠Kxxx♥K9xx♦Axx♣T9 1C-1H;2D-2N;3N-end 2. You are in 3N (you overcalled 1N) after a Precision 1♦ on your right: ♠K9762♥J8♦AQ98♣73 ♠J3♥K753♦K2♣AKQ52 1. H2 (4th), 8, A!, 3 2. Q!, J, H6, 5 3. CT, 3, 4, ? Hmmm, H's are evidently QT92:A64, but LHO switched to a C... LHO seems to not believe they will get in again to cash the 13th H. C's do not look like they are breaking 3:3, which means we currently expect 1H+3D+4C= 8 tricks. Why didn't LHO lead a S at any point? RHO's 1D opening and LHO having the HQ means RHO should have all of (SA, SQ; HA; DJ; CJ) =maybe= missing one J. Worse, we are also missing the ST. If They actively attack this suit, we should go down. Why aren't They attacking S's? Are S's something like xxx:AQx or Txxx:AQ and LHO isn't playing S's because LHO does not believe EW can establish tricks here? Declarer needs shape information. Rise w/ the CK, then put the CQ on the table and see what develops. If RHO is =3343 or =2353, you get a 5th C for 9 tricks. If RHO is =2344, you may be able to set up some squeezes. 3. You pick up vul / vul: ♠Q2 ♥KT53 ♦KJ76 ♣KQ2. Pard opens 2♦ (11-15, =4414, =4405, =4315, =3415). You inquire with 2N, and pard bids 3♣ (=3415; strength unknown). Your options are: A. 3♦ - Asks if pard is min or max B. 3♥ - Forcing (but it hasn't come up in awhile) C. 3N D. 4♥ What now? Our hand is 14 HCP. GOP has 11-15. Given my D wastage, I'm not looking for slam on this hand; but We defintely belong in Game. The obvious game with a 4:4 H fit is 4H, so that is what I am bidding.

So, given that Ira Rubin has passed away... ...how does one say "The Beast" in Polish?

1= and most important, assuming you are reporting accurately and that the "star" was intentionally insulting you... Fred is absolutely right that no real expert, let alone one who has been trusted with a star, has any right behaving in the manner you have described. Please report him. Such behavior makes every other real expert look bad and is bad for Bridge. 2= I have no problem with you deciding to Open a 2 Quick Trick, 7 loser, nice single suit 10 count 1D. The "classic" HCP range for a opening 3bid is ~4-9 HCP. Your hand is too good for a 3D opening by classic standards. 3= Make a Support X rather than rebidding your D's. By "classic" standards, your hand is not strong enough to rebid 3D. 4a= Your CHO misbid his hand. He never came close to showing his values. Ma\ybe he thought he was playing Polish Club? Or was not used to playing SA or 2/1? 4b= NS should be in Game after S's 3D rebid (another reason to be careful about "having" your bid...) 5= If you are defending, either lead your suit or CHO's suit unless you =know= some other lead is best. It's easier on partnership harmony. Frankly, it's a toss-up to me whether I would lead a D expecting CHO to be short and therefore possibly giving him a ruff at some point, or I would Opening lead the HA intending to play the HJ if CHO signals encouragement.

Fair enough. Please note that if I did not have 1-S in this hand or if I had a shape that would allow me to bid it safely, say x.AJx.Jxxxxx.xxx or somesuch, I would happily bid 1N since I know I can handle any subsequent auction (and if GOP GF's, there's a much better chance of establishing a 6 card suit than there is of establishing a 5 card suit.) As usual, one of the issues on minimum hands is "Do you have a reasonable rebid?" When you don't, one caution light should be lit. When the hand is a misfit, that's another caution light. Etc, etc. Too many caution lights, and I get, well, cautious. :)

*sigh* I am not trying to "drive people insane" nor be difficult. Nor did I "pick numbers out of hat" to make my point. They are =exactly= correct. points imps points imps 0- 10 0 750- 890 13 20- 40 1 900-1090 14 50- 80 2 1100-1290 15 90-120 3 1300-1490 16 130-160 4 1500-1740 17 170-210 5 1750-1990 18 220-260 6 2000-2240 19 270-310 7 2250-2490 20 320-360 8 2500-2990 21 370-420 9 3000-3490 22 430-490 10 3500-3990 23 500-590 11 4000+ 24 600-740 12 Work it out for yourself. The thing people are forgetting is that when you bid "close" games, eg w/o extras or w/ slightly less than "traditional values" you do =not= know what the odds are on that game when you bid it. {heck, you do not actually know what the odds are on a game-w/-extras when you bid it either. Eddie Kantar's story of a heart breaking 30+ HCP 3N that is 0% comes to mind...} The point Frances and others including myself are making is that at IMPs you must bid games that are likely to be less than 50%, at Red considerably less, as well as the obvious games-with-extras that are likely (only "likely" we do not know when we bid them) to be considerably better than 50%. ...and the upshot of this strategy is that if you are bidding game with the appropriate amount of aggression, particularly Red at IMPs, you are very likely to be going down in game more often than you are making. ...and assuming you are not =too= aggressive, you will still show a profit for it when playing vs opponents strong enough to know to do the same thing. Missing a makable game Red at IMPs is a =big= deal. All of this is why.

Harsh thing to say when talking about players of the caliber of the Cappelletti's... I happen to agree that Multi-Landy is considerably better than Capp when used vs a enemy 1N opening. OTOH, Capp or something like it when used vs a enemy T/O X or 1N overcall makes a lot more sense: 1= It maximizes the chance that Overcaller will be on Opening lead. 2= It maximizes the chance that Opener will Declare. 3= It gives Us more sequences in the case of an Opp T/O X and helps Us recover some space in the case of an Opp 1N overcall. 4= It allows Us to describe some hands much faster (or in some cases at all) than if the auction had gone 1foo-pa-?? OTOH, pclayton is quite right when he says that one "oops I forgot" will cost more than many successful uses of such a gadget. I play stuff like this only in partnerships where I am highly confident there won't be an "oops..."

Let's do a thought experiment. I give you a board where you are in 3N Red at IMPs and have 8 top tricks and a suit combination that has 3/8 of giving you your 9th trick. There's nothing else to the play. If you make, you get $10. If you go -1, you lose $6 . Now let's say you play 8 such boards in a row: You make 3 and go down in 5: 3*$10 - 5*$6= 0 You have broken even despite the fact that you went down far more often than you made. A analogous thought experiment will show that White at IMPS you only have to make 5 of every 11 games bid to break even. QED: If you make most games you bid at IMPs, then you are not bidding enough games.

...IMHO in contrast -bidding- is putting all your eggs into one basket. Let's see: Opener has 5+S and 8- other cards. We hold x.AJxx.Jxxxx.xxx Opener's most likely shape is =5323 2C isn't the most inconvenient rebid Opener could make. Those strong bids you are mentioning are. 1S-1N;2N-?? Now we are playing 2N instead of 1N... {I'm not accepting many invites w/ x.AJxx.Jxxxx.xxx} 1S-1N;GFJS-?? =Very= bad. Now We're forced to what is likely to be a bad game because Opener is expecting two power tricks from my hand and I only have one. Worse, if I respond normally w/ a subminimum, GOP may later do some slam exploration that will =really= get Us in trouble. It has been said the Limit Bid is the most important bid in bridge. Limit your hand ASAP when you have the opportunity. Especially if you are playing methods that are likely to make "the wheels come off" if you don't.

Side note on using 1N-2S! as mss. The "old fashioned" way of using mss to only show strong D+C two suited hands interested in slam does not come up frequently enough for it to be batter than 4 suit xfers. If your choices are "Strong only" mss vs. 4 way xfers, play 4 way sfers. The "modern" way of using mss is to use it for both very weak hands where playing 3m is likely to be much better than 1N =and= very strong minor two suiters interested in slam. 1N-2S!; Opener now picks a minor or bids 2N if they can't choose. If Opener picks a minor, =any= subsequent bid by Responder shows slam interest. If Opener bids 2N, then 3m by Responder is To Play and 3M by Responder shows slam interest. The simple way to play 1N-2S!;any-3M is as showing shortness in the Major. This has the pro of being easy to remember but the con of making it easy for Them to know what to lead, or X to show the suit to suggest a sacrifice, or etc. Thus the better way to play 1N-2S!;any-3M is that it shows shortness in the =other= Major. This makes it much harder for Them to enter Our auction safely. OTOH, this "better" way can be harder on partnership memory. In any event, I suggest examining "weak or strong" mss if you are looking for 1N response structure suggestions.

Is this true? We should certainly be bidding 3NT contracts that are considerably more likely to fail than to make. But we should also be bidding our 100% 3NT contracts. I haven't done any calculations, but my guess is that I'd expect over half of 3NT contracts to make. Of course, it also depends on what 'much more frequently' means. Frances is 100% correct. At IMPs =bid your games=. A game that makes > 3/8 is a win in the long run Red at IMPs. A game that makes > 5/11 is a win in the long run White at IMPs. Assuming your choices are -1 or make, making > 2/5 of your X'ed games is a win in the long run at IMPs regardless of the colors. The flip side of this is that if you are not going minus more often than you are going plus, then you are not bidding game enough at IMPs.

Call me old fashioned, but I like Acol style 3N openings that show a hand good for 7-8 tricks and =any= good suit as a source of tricks. Major or minor doesn't matter to me. I'm bidding the likely limit of my hand in one bid.

You have to make a better case for passing, because right now that idea seems pretty ridiculous to me. a= This whole thread is evidence that Responder has been backed into a no-win situation. b= When the misfit light is out, hands of less than GF strength get worse. x.AJxx.Jxxxx.xxx is not a great minimum to begin with. The 1S opening makes it considerably worse. c= J's are overvalued in the the standard Work count. In particular, Jxxxx may very well never take a trick on power. d= Given that only the A is likely to cover a loser in Opener's hand, Opener needs a 4- loser hand for Us to make a suit game. In NT Opener is likely to only be able to get to our hand once; which means We have communication/transportation problems. In short, Opener is highly unlikely to have a hand where We have play for game. Overall, all the problems provide reasonable grounds to re-evaluate this hand as a sub-minimum. I pass sub-minimums w/o support for Opener's first bid suit or a self sufficient descriptive bid (WJS, etc).

IMHO, if you are playing these methods, then Responder should foresee this sort of potential problem after 1S-?? with their misfitting 9 loser hand containing only 1 cover card... ...and pass

Ok, so you do not open AQxxx.x.Kxxx.xxx Would you open AQJxx.x.Kxxx.xxx or AQxxx.x.KJxx.xxx or AQTxx.x.KTxx.xxx Where's your "floor" for 5431's? and why is your "floor" where it is?