You seem to be arguing two different things: that because you don't know which trick they would have been likely to win, the conditions of the law are not satisfied; and that because they agreed to an imperfect claim they might well have misdefended. Which is it? If the latter, it just seems to me to be judgement question as to how likely they are to have misdefended. But the first point has been presented as though winning a diamond, a club, or trick 13 are separate possibilities, whereas the most likely time for the defence to win either a diamond or a club is at trick 13. I thought the point of making up an example was to demonstrate a point in its purest form, without any external clutter to add confusion, but this one seems to me to lack clarity.