WesleyC

I tried transfer rebids by opener in this sequence a few years back. e.g after 1S - 2H 2S = Minimum or 6+S 2NT -> ♣ 3C -> ♦ 3D -> Strong ♥ 3H -> Weak ♥ which is basically a worse version of you're suggesting. However, my conclusion after a few tournaments was that add all the extra definition into the heart raises wasn't useful while we still struggled on some other hands. I think there's more value in using your extra step to handle hands with 6+S and slight extras (but non-solid) which is an otherwise tricky hand to show.

This feels like a hand where there might be a better line but my first instinct is: Trump in dummy. ♦A and diamond ruff. Ruff a second heart. Ruff another diamond with the ♠8. 5 more rounds of trumps and then try and guess what to do!

I agree with your partner on this one - 2H then 3D should definitely be G/F. If you wanted to invite in diamonds/NT you could have bid 3D (or 2NT) directly over 2D. It's common to use the 2H bid in this sequence (and even more commonly the 2D bid in the sequence 1C - 1M - 2C - 2D*) as a 'semi-natural' forcing bid which you will sometime be endplayed into making on a strong hand with out direction. Without that agreement there are strong hands that simply don't have a bid so giving up a little bit of precision on invitational hands is worthwhile sacrifice. Nothing is perfect on your actual hand, but 2S should have chances.

I don't like your to rebid 2S with such strong support for partner and a heart void. Especially holding such prime spades, I'd rather support clubs directly over 2D. Even a subminimum shapely reverses like [--- xxx Axxx AKxxxx] or [x xxx AKxx AKxxx] makes slam good, and bidding spades might slow partner down.

My first instinct would be to win in hand, cash 3/4 high spades pitching hearts (assuming they break), cash the ♣A, ♦A and then play a small diamond towards dummy. Now if East wins the ♦Q, the suit isn't breaking and they aren't endplayed then i'll fall back on the heart finesse.

Thanks for posting your simulation code - it's a lot more readable than mine! I'd change a few things (although there is no guarantee they would effect the final result). 1) I think you should include the possibility for the 2NT opener to have a stiff Q, K or A especially in a 4441 shape. My style would be to include only a minor singleton. 2) I'm possibly mistaken, but are you assuming that north will double stayman on any hand with 6+ clubs? Are you also suggesting that they wouldn't double 3C holding AQJxx of clubs without 10 total HCP? Seems wrong. 3) I like the idea of your 'upgrade_nt' proc, but I would add a provision to downgrade for tight honours, a less strong emphasis on just aces/tens/nine and bigger focus on the texture in the long suit (rather than 10's 9's in the whole hand). 4) Restricting West to 5+ HCP is too conservative. West has no choice but to investigate game on most shapely hands with 3-4 HCPs - eg [x KTxx xxx 9xxxx] or similar because the upside of finding a heart fit is too great.

Your new line does gain when West has the stiff ♥A, but if East has that card, they will win and return a spade putting you to a guess in that suit before you've had a chance to test the diamonds. To put it in perspective, LHO has the stiff ♥A 13% of the time and the ♦Q comes down tripleton 22% (although you only actually lose on 1/2 of these because sometimes the spade is onside). If you think there is a chance that your LHO will duck holding Ax of hearts (you can make it hardest by ruffing with the ♥J and then 'running' the ♥9) then that line does look best.

The ♥9 lead is super weird. Did West actually pass over 2H with a stiff H and a bunch of spades and then lead his singleton trump? Given that the only risk of ducking a heart is the parlay that the ♥9 is a middle trump from a doubleton/tripleton heart holding AND the opponent with 3H has a void AND the other manages to give them a ruff, then ducking a heart still probably the right play.

I played it as priest with a strong paladin ally and we won easily. Maybe there are more beneficial to allies cards in those classes than others.

I think the flaw in this idea is that you're assuming if the diamonds are ♦T9x, ♦AQ64 we might have missed a chance to beat 3NT. If you run into this worst case diamond layout, your lead didn't matter. Nothing mattered, declarer was always going to roll home with some large number of tricks. You hold 4 HCP, the opponents free bid to 3NT, all of partner's HCP are sitting under declarer, hearts are breaking evenly - you KNOW from the start that you're rarely going to win. On a hand like this where you need to start with the assumption that you are a huge underdog without much to lose. Take risks and think about the positive cases rather than the negatives. You've got nothing to lose!

I shouldn't post such easy hands in the Expert forum while Rainer is around :)

Knockout IMPs! [hv=pc=n&s=skqjt5haq7d6cj842&n=s943h5dqj5432cak5&d=s&v=0&b=11&a=1sp2c(*Art%2C%203-way)p2d(*Art%2C%20Accepting%20a%20limit%20raise.)p4sppp]266|200[/hv] West leads the ♠2. East wins with the ♠A and returns the ♠7 as West follows with the ♠6. Plan the play!

Although this is a definitely a cute hand, putting it in the Novice/Beginner forum is mean! I'd rate it at least advanced (and probably expert once you start considering all the end game options). Given that West chose to lead the ♦T rather than a top heart, it's very unlikely that he holds the ♥AK. I'd put my money on the heart layout being precisely ♥AQxxx(x) opposite ♥K(x). Once you make that inference, you can work out that West needs both the ♠K and the ♣K to make up his opening bid so taking a spade finesse is destined to fail. A better alternative is to win the opening lead in hand (retaining he ♦K as an entry for later) and lay down the ♠A. If the ♠K drops singleton, I'd draw trumps, take a club finesse and (hopefully) claim. However, even if the ♠K isn't singleton, you still have legitimate chances. If LHO has ♠Kx and ♥AQxxxx, you can guess his shape in the minors, strip those minor cards and then exit with a trump. In the ending the opponents will be unable to untangle their 3 heart tricks without giving you a heart trick or a ruff and discard. Perhaps an even better chance (especially against an inexperienced defender) is to cash out 3 rounds of both minors hoping to put East on lead with the doubleton ♠K if they hold a more common hand like [Kx AQxxx T9x Kxx]. On lead in the ending holding only ♥AQxxx, they need to exit with a small heart to their partner's ♥K in order to beat you, which is a tough play to find.

The key idea that Cyberyeti and nige picked up is that you need to play the ♦3. This gives you by far the best chance if West holds ♥AK98. Essentially, the is just an extension of playing the card that you are known to hold. In the analogous situation, where the opponents play natural signals and RHO played the second highest heart, you should play the highest heart. Bill's point that if the opponents are signaling attitude, they can't go wrong is a fair one. However, I do think that almost everyone will be signalling count here, especially on the lead of a King. And anyway, you might as well give yourself *some* chance rather than none. The full layout was: [hv=pc=n&s=s2h7653dakt86542c&w=sj98hak8d93caj643&n=sakt7hqjt2djcq982&e=sq6543h94dq7ckt75&d=s&v=0&b=11&a=5dppp]399|300[/hv] So West knows that a second heart is cashing but when they do cash the ♥A and the ♥9 falls they've still got a problem. A reasonable agreement in this situation is to always play smallest and then 2nd highest from 4 which would solve the problem. Alternatively if West read the ♥9 as (impossible) suit preference for spades, then maybe that would also help them find the winning defense.

IMPs, All Vul. Short auction. [hv=pc=n&s=s2h7653dakt86542c&n=sakt7hqjt2djcq982&d=s&v=b&b=7&a=5dppp]266|200[/hv] LHO leads the ♥K, RHO follows with the ♥4 (UDCA).

My experience is: (with my confidence in brackets) 1) Invitational. (100%) 2) Forcing. (100%) 3) Forcing. (100%) 4) Invitational. (100%) 5) 3D = Unclear. 3S = Forcing. Without agreements I wouldn't pass either.

I assumed from they stayman bid that LHO will have a 4c heart suit.

Having read the Bird/Anthias books and also done a bunch of double dummy simulations myself, I would lead a diamond here with a fair degree of confidence. 1st point is things looks extremely grim for our side. We hold only 4 HCP, partner's HCP are sitting under declarer and hearts are splitting evenly. Based on similar situations I'd estimate our chance of defeating the contract at around 10%. 2nd point is that we will almost never be able to defeat 3NT out of our own hand. With RHO holding 4/5 spades and our hand having only 1 outside entry, the Spade suit is an illusion. In order to beat 3NT we're going to require (probably 4) tricks in partner's hand. 3rd point is that partner had an opportunity to double 3C for a lead and didn't. Once you can accept these main points, a diamond lead stands out as by far the best chance of hitting partner's 5c suit and beating the contract.

I don't like East's choices on the first hand and although West's double of 4H is clearly misguided, I would assign some blame to both players. Hand 2 looks normal. Over 3H I would be tempted to try 3NT rather than double.

Ducking trick 1 might win legitimately if LHO has led from KQx, has some extra chances if its KQxx (as Ken mentions) and also gives LHO the chance to make a mistake and switch.

I think the sequence you had at the table was fine. You described a hand that wants to play in 4H but with diamonds on the side, holding 1H and 3D, I would pass. Partner should appreciate that you had a LOT of other ways to describe a diamond/heart 2 suiter. Over 3C you could double, bid 3D, 3H, 4C and 4D which all describe various shapes/strengths. Of those bids 4H must be the strongest suggestion of hearts - usually a 75 or similar.

Assuming you play some variant of 2-way checkback, then a handy treatment to handle this hand: 1C 1S 1NT 4X is a spade auto-splinter showing a singleton. 1C 1S 1NT 2C* 2D* 4X as a spade auto-splinter showing a void. Normally I don't like playing conventions that are very low frequency due to memory load issues, but this is such an unusual sequence that it should be impossible to forget.