hotShot

To stay in your example, imagine that the head was blown off with a pump gun and witnesses have seen the victim walking and talking seconds before the shot. At court the layer says that the victim could have died from poisoning milliseconds before the shot, so his client's shot only hit a dead body. So the jury should have doubts, because they did not check on poisoning in the crime lab.

If we define a NT opening with 2-4♠, 2-4♥, 2-6♦ and 2-6♣ we have the following probabilities (based on 1,000,000 random deals): HCP range count [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space]count additionally 2nd seat has 15+HCP [space] [space] [space] [space]frequency of dbl [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space](average combined HCP seat 2 and 4) [space] [space] [space] [space] [space]over 1NT opening 10-12 [space] [space] [space] 124299 [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] 13835(22.9) [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space]11.1% 11-13 [space] [space] [space] 112541 [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] 10665(22.3) [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space]9.5% 12-14 [space] [space] [space] [space] 97427 [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space]7594(21.8) [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] 7.8% 13-15 [space] [space] [space] [space] 80993 [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space]5119(21.2) [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] 6.3% 14-16 [space] [space] [space] [space] 64398 [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space]3203(20.7) [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] 5.0% 15-17 [space] [space] [space] [space] 48782 [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space]1919(20.1) [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] 3.9% 16-18 [space] [space] [space] [space] 35447 [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space]1068(19.6) [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] 3.1% For comparism: NT range 16-18, dbl has a 6+ card suit any HCP range: count 6604(15.6) 18.6%

You are right! @Al_U_Card Ignoring shape my sample says: After pass - pass 3rd seat is (All HCP ranges should sum up to 36,7% of all deals) 10-12 10.6% combined average 19.2 12-14 10.4% combined average 20.8 15-17 6.7% combined average 23.2 After pass- pass - pass 4th seat is (All HCP ranges should sum up to 17.2% of all deals) 10-12 4.2% combined average 20.8 12-14 5.8% combined average 22.0 15-17 5% combined average 23.9

Which card from the ♠ void would you use for that?

Edit: Ignore, see awm calculation below instead. You better reconsider that.The average of 10 HCP results from hands from 0 HCP up to 37 HCP with using their frequency as weight. If a player is using methods that would open any 12 HCP hand, than his pass means that his hand is from the subset of hands with 0-11 HCP. The average strength of these hands is ~8HCP. As a consequence the remaining 3 player have 2 more HCP to distribute. So the average of the 2nd pass moves up 2/3 HCP. This is just basic math. Now you compare odds, but which odds are you comparing? What I do is: There are 23 1/3 HCP to distribute to 2 Player obviously the maximum of the distribution curve will be at 11 4/6 = 11 2/3. This means that the odds to hold 12-14 HCP are much bigger than those of holding 15-17. If the 3rd seat passes too and by that denies to have 12+ HCP, than indeed in 4th seat you hold an average of 12 1/3. This is better than the average 10 in 1st seat so you are more likely to have 15-17 hCP than in 1st seat, but still it is more likely that you hold 12-14 HCP than holding 15-17. You will find that weak NT opener don't play 1NT if they are weak, they use some escape sequence to get into a "better" contract.

Partner should not have more than one ♠. I don't expect 4♥'s, otherwise he would have doubled to show 2-3 places to play and later support/accept my choice of trump. In my methods a very strong partner would dbl first and bid his suit later, this would mean that his 3♣ is limited to 15- HCP and showing 0-1♠, 3-♥ and 9+ cards in the minors. So all my HCP seem valuable. (If opps have a 9 card fit, we should have a 9 card fit too or we should have 2 8card fits. So partner might hold 6 ♣ or he has a 0355 or 1255 shape.) The correct bid would be 4♣, but since we are vul@IMPs I might bit 5♣.

The average strength of a 1st seat pass is 8 HCP, the average strength of a 2nd seat pass is 8.66 HCP. This means that 3rd and 4th seat share 23.33 HCP on average. Obviously the frequency of a strong NT bid (15-17) will be so low, that it is wasted. A NT range of 12-14 makes sure that on average your side will hold 20+ HCP. It also means that the player in 4th seat will hold 11.33- HCP. If there had not been a very unbalanced hand in seats 1-3, it is unlikely that there is one in 4th seat. So bidding 1NT should keep opps from entering the auction, esp. if they have no tools to find and play 4-4 fits at the 2 level. Even playing 10-12 HCP can be effective (if non vul), because with an average of combined 18-20 HCP you have good chances to make 6-8 tricks in a contract you choose and opps will have a hard time to find their own fit or penalty double successfully. Especially if you made a doubled contract once opps will tend not to dbl next time.

I think the flash client is doing that.

It was that you can spliner with a stiff. A bid was needed that allowed a very strong raise (at least slam interest) when you can't splinter. So Jacoby 2NT was used for that.

NS is red! Assuming that there is a convention card to prove the agreement, without the hesitation North showed a hand with 19+ HCP, 5+♠ a 5+ minor and only 3 cards in the remaining suits. This means there is (should be) additional distributional strength. South has fit in both of North suits and no defensive values. Without the hesitation I don't think pass is a LA. One possible reason for the hesitation might be: North had doubts that he is strong enough to bid r/w. So the hesitation is suggesting to pass. My impression is that with the hesitation, I would consider to pass. So my impression is that "pass" is the bid suggested by the hesitation. So with the hesitation I think I have to bid 4♠. Opps double suggests that North is not as strong as he needs to be for his bid.

This hand is much better than what I would usually hold for an 2♠ bid. So I would have bid something else. Both (3)4♠ or dbl would have been acceptable bids last round, but bidding one of them now is bad style. So stick to your first bid and pass.

I just tried to kib an "interesting table". The table list showed a table with "reisig" in all seats, so I guessed that might be an interesting lecture. But without seeing the cards or the bidding, just reading the chat and seeing the played cards, is only half the fun.

Using suitplay we find that after trick 2 we have: x [space] - Qxx [space]18.65 xx [space]- Qx [space] 20.35 Qx [space]- xx [space] 20.35 Qxx - x [space] [space]18.65 After east putting the 4 on the table, options 2 (east did not drop the Q) and 4 (east was not single) are out, we are left with with: x [space] - Qxx [space]18.65 Qx [space]- xx [space] 20.35 So finesse would be 47.8% and drop 52.2%. Whoever holds the ♦Q can see dummies JT98. Opps were silent during the bidding. Play was one round of ♠ and ♣. This is not much extra information.

If you have a webserver you need to define what MIME type a lin-file is. For apache webserver you add: AddType application/bbolin .lin Microsoft is ignoring web standards and ignores the MIME-type send by the server and uses the file-extension instead.

Why didn't P bid 3♠? I expect him to have a 2nd suit and he is to weak to bid both of them. At playable level. Most likely he is 5(4)♠, 4♥, 2♦ and 2♣. Depending on your NT range he is just invitational in strength.

4♥

In the range of 15-17 HCP ~44% of the hands have 15 HCP. QJ8 AJ4 AQ76 J32 has a perfect shape, 2 aces, nice stopper in the majors and a weak ♣J. It is an average hand with ups and downs. So when I agreed to NT with 15 HCP such hands were definitely included. Playing NT this hand will on average make 1♠, 1.5♥ and 1.5♦ = 4 tricks and will promote anything partner holds in ♣. If you are lucky (25% of the time ) it's worth 5 tricks. Axx Axx Axxx Axx will make only 4 tricks too, would you downgrade that?

You have: Q872 Enter: Q876 and there are 3 lines 2 that give you 2 tricks with 95%, playing small to AT. Then Enter: Q832 there are 2 lines one has 95% for you to get 2 tricks, playing small to AT. So I think the best you can do is play small to the AT.

pass I read it that they are V.

Without knowing bridgebrowser it seems logical to me to first search all boards that have: 9-10 HCP (~19% of all hands) and 5+♠ and 5+♦ hands (Estimation: 6511 0,7% 6520 0.6% 5521 3.17% 5530 0.89% => ~6% specific ♠ and ♦ of all 6 possible 2 suit combinations => ~1%) So I only look at a subset that is about 0.19% of the complete database and start my investigation on this subset. If I can't do that it takes 99,81 /0.19 = 525 times longer than necessary.

1NT is a a limited bid both in strength and shape. 3♣ says that the 1NT bid was somehow unusual. Of cause this does not show a psyche but is just a (strong) warning that something is unusual. You suggest that south has something like 2 extra distributional points. North passed and may be very weak. South may have 15-17 HCP + 2 distributional points, that is not much for a 3 level contract. This is your 2nd warning, now something is strange. Bidding went: NB-NB-1N-2C* NB-2D**-3C-NB NB-3H-NB-4H*** *Landy => I have both majors (usually long!) **asking => pick your better suit (I support both of them) ***opps volunteered to bid game in red Opps seem to have a doublefit in the majors and volunteered to bid game in red. They believe to have a 40+% chance to make that contract on 40 HCP - (partners 15-17) - (your strength). Opps must have a lot off distributional points too. Since west did not give preference for a major over 3♣ he will hold 5 cards in both suits. So west won't have more than 3 cards in the minors. Opps bidding shows more strength than they should have. This is a 3rd warning, something is very strange. At this point you should strongly consider that partner psyched. Is dbl a good bid, if partner did not psyche? Opps seem to have both majors and unbalanced hands. So your side has the minors and south has most of his points in ♣. Both minors carry the risk to be ruffed. Where should 4+ tricks for N/S come from? Even if we don't expect partner psyched, I don't think that dbl is a good bid.

Assuming that the hand shown is south (otherwise I don't see a psyche): The worst bid was X, but I can't pick it in the poll. Opener usually has shown his hand after a 1NT opening, so 3♣ (especially with a passed partner) shows a "long minor NT psyche". Everybody should know/recognize this simple psyche (esp. w/r).

try: ftp://present.cirl.uoregon.edu/pub/users/.../bridge/gib.exe Sorry! Seems not to work from here.

There used to be a very old version of GIB at an old ftp server at some university that was free. Later versions have a different interface and don't work with the old one.

How should a TD prove that an electronic device had been used or if a cell phone had been on a few seconds ago. Banning all such devices is much easier than proving their use or the cheating itself. If you are seen with anything, of you go. The TD does not even need to know what kind of device you have. Of cause that does not solve all problems, but it puts the TD in a better position, to deal with the situation.