quiddity

Really? I was pretty sure it was the worst. Here's an attempt at comparison: Line 1: ♦A. If RHO drops an honor, draw trump and diamond to the ten. Otherwise, ♦K, ♦x, hoping to ruff a diamond and cash the ♥A. Line 2: strip majors, draw trumps, diamond to the ten. Line 1 gains when hearts are 2=6 and RHO holds one, two, or three diamonds containing exactly one honor. Line 2 gains when LHO holds both diamond honors and (hearts are 1=7 or RHO holds 0-1 diamonds). Line 1 gaining: - 2=6 heart break : 11:7 empty spaces - diamond breaks: 3-3 = 31.1%, 4=2 = 37.3%, 5=1 = 17.4% 3-3: 20 total holdings, RHO holds exactly one honor in 12 of them. 4=2: 15 total holdings, RHO holds exactly one honor in 8 of them. 5=1: 6 total, RHO holds an honor in 2 of them. ===> (12/20)*31.1 + (8/15)*37.3 + (2/6)*17.4 = 44.4% of the 2=6 heart breaks. Line 2 gaining: - 1=7 heart break : 12:6 empty spaces - chance of LHO holding ♦QJ = (12/18)(11/17) = 43.1% of the 1=7 heart breaks - 2=6 heart break - diamond breaks: 6=0 = 2.5%, 5=1 = 17.4% ===> (4/6)*17.4 + 2.5 = 14% of the 2=6 heart breaks These lines are equal if RHO started with 6 hearts 58% of the time. My guess is that this is too low (given the loose preempt style and the solid heart suit). If RHO is always opening 3♥ whether he has 6 or 7, then the chance he has 6 is the same as the chance that LHO has the ♥4 given 12:7 empty spaces (63%). In fact RHO might open 4♥ on some of his 7-baggers so it looks like the diamond ruff line is significantly better.

I don't understand these lines. line 1: you need to shed two losers. How are you getting rid of the second one? line 3: what if LHO wins the club king and returns a spade? Doesn't this just revert to line 1?

I like this line. But what do you do if the first club wins? I guess you have to try two spades and the heart ace; going after a diamond ruff runs the risk of RHO discarding his club on the third diamond. So there's a further requirement that LHO has a doubleton in either major. The line doesn't work when RHO has three spades (since LHO then wins the king on the first round) so hearts have to be 6=2. edit - no, you can just cash the club ace and then go after the diamond ruff.

oops, i totally misread this. never mind.. Can we calculate this just based on open spaces - the chance of hearts 6-2 is the chance that West has the H4 given 12 empty spaces opposite 7? It seems really close, since going for a diamond ruff may fail if West can discard his heart on the third round of diamonds. Maybe if I have time later I'll make a real attempt at doing the math.

One possible line is to play for ♦QJ onside: unblock spades, ruff heart high, draw trump, diamond to the ten. That's something like 47% if hearts are 1=7 (likely) and if I did the math correctly (unlikely).

shrug - i'm still interested. Did opener have a stiff spade? On this auction are people giving a courtesy cue with any sort of a fit for spades? It seems like a bad idea when opener is still unlimited.

umm.. yes?

I tend to agree with Phil about Mike's construction; it's hard to construct a 1363 hand which doesn't rebid 3NT. Either he has a solid-looking diamond suit which might run or he has concentration in the side suits, and our ♥A makes it more likely that his side-suit honors look good for notrump. It's easy to construct 2362 hands with two small spades which bid 4♠ - he's unlikely to make a stronger move without a trump honor or really good diamonds. xx Kx AQxxxx AJx That's a 14-count and slam (while not great) is not hopeless. I'll take my chances.

What is 4♠ in acol? If preemptive, 4NT by west seems overly optimistic.

Running a few rounds of trumps is probably bad. We're not likely to get any useful information and it gives West a chance to signal his diamond honor. So instead, draw the two rounds of trump and play a spade immediately to the 8. If East wins the J or T and returns a club I'll just play ace and a spade making either 4 or 5. If East returns a diamond, maybe that gives us more information about the suit. It's also possible for West to fly J or T on the first round of spades. I don't know many sectional opps who would do that with Jx or Tx. If he thinks before playing it, I'd play him for JTx. If it's in-tempo... I'll have to think about it.

It seems likely that East has the ♠K. I'll run a few more rounds of trump just in case something interesting happens, then lead a low spade from hand and stick in the 8 if west plays low. Say East wins the J or T and returns a diamond to dummy's ace. Now we have to choose between spade to the ace (playing East for stiff king remaining) and running the ♠Q (playing West for stiff J/T remaining). Maybe we can count the possible hands. Assume clubs are 5-5 since West might have competed with KQ-6th of clubs. East is either 2=2=4=5 or 3=2=3=5 and he must hold at least one of the KQ of diamonds. Hearts/clubs are equal in either case and each line works for one specific spade holding so it comes down to counting the possible diamond holdings. Since East must hold at least one diamond honor, I guess we should play him for 4 diamonds. So it looks like spade to the ace is the correct play. Is this valid? Something about it feels not-quite-right.

It seems equally nonsense to think that doubler cannot double again with takeout shape to show strength just because the opps have dicked around.

Does this style work for them? It seems terrible.

Thanks for the comments. I'm happy to see my LOTT pass wasn't completely out of the ballpark. Unfortunately it didn't work out this time; clubs were 7-0 and declarer made an overtrick.

[hv=pc=n&s=sk32hk6dak94c9732&d=e&v=b&b=10&a=p1dp1h2cppdp]133|200[/hv] Matchpoints. South's pass over 2♣ tends to deny 3-card heart support.

The first double showed takeout shape and the subsequent two doubles do not change things. He still has a takeout of spades, the third double shows extra strength.

[hv=pc=n&s=sqj642ha65dcqj862&d=n&v=e&b=9&a=1dp1sp2dp]133|200[/hv] At matchpoints, would you pass or would you try one more time to improve the contract? If you pass, how much better would the spades have to be to try 2♠? (Would you bid it with all 6-card suits? Any 5-card suits?) How much better would the hand have to be to try 2NT? I've been passing but I've gotten mostly bad results so I wonder if I should be more optimistic.

club

Agreed as far as finding a side 4-4 fit, but it seems pretty common to want to pattern out and ask opener to evaluate his honor holdings for slam. Is it as useful as starting a cuebidding sequence? Given that responder has already shown an unbalanced hand and that opener has implied scattered honors everywhere, maybe it's even more useful.

Sure, the alternative is 4NT. We have a balanced minimum with AJx of hearts and two small spades. Did we bid 4♠ to allow partner room to keycard? If he had bid 4NT immediately over 3♥, what would that have been? Anyway, in the original auction he could have bid 5♣ (or 5♠?) to ask for a heart control and he could have bid 5♥ to ask for a club control so I'm inclined to think that 5♦ is natural. He has a slam invite with spades and diamonds. We still have a balanced min and the ♥A might be duplicated. I think I would pass.

Sorry, maybe 4♠ is normal. I'm used to playing strong jump shifts so I don't have any experience with this kind of auction.

I bid 4♠?

This doesn't look like a "maximum" to me; I think the question of whether to balance in the first place was pretty close. Still, I think I would bid game. Maybe partner is more likely to act initially with short clubs than with short diamonds - he could be 4315 and afraid to double. In that case our club honors will be welcome.

I tend to double when I have equity to protect (I think we have game) but I'm not sure what to do. Here I have a known 8+ (very likely 9) card fit. If I thought we could make game, I would bid it. Otherwise I would pass. Certainly when I first read this problem I thought there was no way partner could have 3 diamonds, much less AJx.

I don't understand 3♣. Why try for a slam (or some perfecto minor-suit game) at matchpoints, with a 14-count opposite a minimum opener, with AKQ opposite known shortness? The only thing 3♣ is likely to do is steer the opponents toward a heart lead instead of a spade.