rogerclee

IMO west's pass was completely routine, saving in 5D at equal vul with a balanced hand and 0 controls seems extremely dumb to me.

If 5S forces to slam opposite a heart control then I would do that, but like some others I don't play that it forces to slam, just invites it. This is a problem because even hands like Kxxx x xxxx Kxxx (fill in whatever diamond points you want) make slam totally reasonable. So it helps to think about how often partner will be minimum/sub-minimum with a heart control, compared to how often he will simply not have a heart control. However it is also of note that if you bid 5S and partner bids 6H, now you can bid the grand (IMO), whereas you will virtually never hear a heart cuebid out of partner if you bid 4N.

Old fashioned standard is that 3D is forcing. If you're not playing old fashioned standard but want to play 3D and 3H are natural, then it's probably theoretically good to play that they're NF. But who cares, because if you are not playing old fashioned standard, there are a zillion things you can play that are much better than 3D or 3H natural and either GF/NF.

Jdonn? Clee? Ok then I jump to 7N, the whole point of this hand is that inviting is absurd because there are 13 tricks so often.

I would just bid gerber and force to 7N opp an ace, since it is basically impossible for this contract to be worse than on a finesse given a normal opening bid style. Even hands like AJx KJx xxx KJxx, which I would call a pretty unlucky fit, make 7N very good, not to mention all the 9-11 counts that make 7N cold.

I like: 1) Usually give preference with a doubleton, but obviously you can bid 3N too if you think your hand is great for no trump and you have no heart honor. 2) Shows doubt about 3N, bad spades. 3) Natural (4S thereafter would be a strong agreement of clubs) 4) 3 card limit raise, but not forcing, so tends to not be very prime. 5) Shows doubt about 3N, bad spades.

Pretty sure I'd do the same thing. My feeling is that: 1) North's redouble is the best call but maybe 1S is best. 2) South's pass after that is normal. 3) North's pass of 2D is normal. 4) South's 2H bid is normal. 5) North's decision to sit for 2H is probably best.

r/r IMPs 9xxxx x ATxx KQx 1D 1H 1S 2D P 2H ? (x by partner would be 3♠)

How did you IMP this (we are vul, they are not)? I thought your criteria were that 5D is always doubled and 4H is never doubled. I have: 12) win 15 14) lose 12 15) lose 11 18) win 15 19) win 12 20) win 12 Net: Lose 37 IMPs, or -1.85 IMPs/bd (Lose 19 IMPs, or -0.95 IMPs/bd if we are being generous) Roger, I get 12) win 14 14) lose 7 15) lose 6 18) win 14 19) win 11 20) win 11 for a total of -31 when 5♦ is doubled every time it goes down. If 5♦ is never doubled, we would score +49 IMPS over the same 20 boards by bidding 5♦. You are right on 14+15, but I also said they would double when 5D makes; seems unfair to assume they will only double 5D when it's down.

Just want to add that I didn't feel strongly about bidding 5D or passing after reading the OP and still don't really. 1) I think awm's criteria that they will always double 5D is very unrealistic. 2) I trust awm's analysis of the simulations and his numbers do not seem particularly hard to believe to me. 3) I think the opponents will seldom bid 5H over 5D (Adam, did you simulate any hands where you found this to be likely or even reasonable?), their decision will mostly be to double or pass.

How did you IMP this (we are vul, they are not)? I thought your criteria were that 5D is always doubled and 4H is never doubled. I have: 1) lose 2 2) lose 2 3) lose 11 4) lose 6 5) lose 2 (win 6 if we are being generous) 6) lose 2 7) lose 6 8) lose 11 (lose 6 if we are being generous) 9) lose 2 10) lose 6 11) win 6 12) win 15 13) lose 11 (lose 6 if we are being generous) 14) lose 12 15) lose 11 16) lose 2 17) lose 11 18) win 15 19) win 12 20) win 12 Net: Lose 37 IMPs, or -1.85 IMPs/bd (Lose 19 IMPs, or -0.95 IMPs/bd if we are being generous)

The Who sucked.

Which top pairs do this? What are their agreements like? It seems impractical to me, but if it's actually a pretty common agreement among world class pairs from a certain country or something, that would be interesting.

Actually I agree with this now, south's hand is huge, blackwood was normal.

South made a nonserious cuebid, to me this denies as much as a reasonable 15 count (as I said above, yours and others' definitions may vary, but I think this is normal). From constructing hands for south it seems that: 1) Whenever south has 5 spades slam is going to be terrible. This isn't a huge problem because often you won't get past game anyway, but south could be 5134 or 5224 or so and go on with a maximum, and there is basically no way slam is good. 2) If south has 6 spades slam will usually not be better than on a hook unless he has club shortness. It's possible he has KQxxxx QJ Ax Kx or KQxxxx Qxx Ax Kx or something, but I'd expect to reach too many terrible slams opposite maximum "nonserious" hands. As noted above, if south has 6 spades and club shortness, his only possible shape is 6331, which is not likely.

1) NS both overbid, but this may depend on what you call a serious or nonserious hand. South should have noticed that Axx of diamonds opposite a non-diamond cuebid is a good indicator that something bad is going to happen, so a signoff seems prudent. North's hand is really only good opposite club shortness, and the only possible shape for that is 6331 (or 7 spades); I wouldn't bet on it. 2) Maybe I'm being dumb, seems like the only legit chance I have is the heart hook, with a small extra chance of a red suit squeeze if it doesn't work.

My thinking is very similar to awm's. I am not willing to set myself up for a likely high-level minus score every time partner has a reasonable hand with fewer than 3 spades. I think his example hand makes sense, not in that it proves anything (no example hand really can), but that it is not cooked in any way and that his handtype (good hand with fewer than 3 spades) is very common and quite terrible for us if we open 1S. I also want to add though that I love preempting at w/r matchpoints (or BAM in this case), so I will do so on a large range of hands. This is not the same as IMPs, and our goal isn't to bid every game. I will exchange accuracy in our constructive auction (that is, we will miss quite a few 4S games and occasionally will play a stupid spade contract when we are cold for something in clubs) by sticking it to the opponents right away and giving them a risky decision (acting or passing over 2S). Another way of thinking about this is to just imagine what your expected score is based on how many spades are in partner's hand. I would think: 0 spades: Pass >> 1S > 2S (6%) 1 spade: Pass > 2S >> 1S (20%) 2 spades: 2S > 1S > Pass (31%) 3 spades: 1S > 2S >> Pass (26%) 4+ spades: 2S >> 1S > Pass (17%) Feel free to disagree with my totally unscientific and qualitative guesses. Frequencies are just binomial(7, 1/3); not exact, but should be approximately right, unless I'm dumb.

Now all we need to get are 655321 members.

I know, I have just been told that bidding 4♠ gets -800 so I am probably biased, but does this really seem like a raise after LHO opened 3♥? I actually wasn't sure but decided eventually that I would raise to game (as did the person at the table). Feel free to disagree, I don't feel incredibly strongly about it.

I did not hold this hand, but when I saw it I thought x, 3S, and pass were all reasonable. Since I never pass, I thought it was close between x and 3S. Anyway at the table partner has 9xx Kxx 8xx KQxx, so: If you pass, 3H goes down 2 and you go +100. If you double, partner bids 3N and it drifts down 1 for -50. If you bid 3S, partner bids 4S and you go for -800 (pretty unlucky; HA, heart ruff, DAK, diamond ruff, and you still have 2 natural trump losers).

I guess I was alone in thinking that south did not deny a club control by bidding 5D. Anyway sorry to disappoint, I was neither north nor south, though they are a good pair.

I wouldn't, but at least it's in the running to me, unlike bidding 3H with the OP.

w/w IMPs AQxxx QJ QJx AJ9 P 3H ?

For clarity, EAST is dealer, SOUTH ended up declaring 6H after overcalling. [hv=d=e&v=b&n=skqxhaq98xdat8cj9&s=sajhktxxxdjcqt8xx]133|200|Scoring: IMP[/hv] (3D) - 3H - (P) - 4D (P) - 4H - (P) - 4S (P) - 5D - (P) - 6H AP

Presumably your partner has heart shortness, so you are playing him to also be short in clubs on this auction?