For what it's worth (not much, i concede), this hand was played in slam at 3 tables out of 4 in the match between Sussex and Leicestershire, on auctions very similar to the one quoted by Frances (at my table, the auction in fact was identical). all three wests chose the spade Jack; 2 declarers finessed and failed, one banged down two top trumps (without pausing for thought, i'm told), and made six. i finessed, for the reasons eloquently expressed by David Burn. i personally don't think it's very close - the psychological arguments are debatable and certainly not strong enough in my view to overturn 2:1 odds.
