Halo

Mind telling us the hand?

I think partner's double is correct. The player with shape has to double. Now I think it is a choice between a heart and a diamond lead. You know North has the best hand at the table. I liked the idea of leading my side's probable longest suit (diamonds). I don't see anything much wrong with a heart. I don't buy the arguments we had about a spade lead. Whatever this hand turns out to be about it is not likely to be elopements and trump throw ins, and if partner has spade tricks and a diamond entry he definitely has nothing else and there will be discards in hearts.

Frances How many times in one auction do you bid with Kxxx.

If you judge that oppos have 44 clubs and 22 spades, that's fine. We make 5 tricks in defence (possibly) and could be doubled for -300 (possibly). I don't agree with your expectation, but that's fine too. I also don't see what relevance your 4333 shape has. Your analysis indicates that the critical factors are opponents shape and whether partner has a singleton - not whether you are are or aren't 4333. I support partner because he bid spades twice and I have four to AQ, useless in defence (probably) and good for dummy reversal in attack. If we want some numbers on our probabilities, we could start with the frequency of spades 22 versus spades 31 - remembering that Pairs is all about frequency.

3C Don't really know where this is going yet.

I bid 3S because I hope to make at least 6 spades and two hearts for eight tricks. If partner has KS and KD I might even make nine tricks. Mostly I expect 3C to make, though it is possible I take it one off when I'm making three spades. At the edge of probability of course the opponents can be 64 clubs with 22 spades and we make ten tricks some of the time: not against the laws of nature. So, while I respect any view of how you score best at pairs, 'ridiculous' seems a lazy evaluation of 3S on this hand. What kind of mental simulations of the hand are others using to discard 3S?

I bid 3S and hope to go -100 (worst case) versus -110.

I think it is quite interesting that bidding 5C with an 8 card suit and bust is 'ridiculous'. Who is seeing all the hands? I thought about various sequences after 1NT and then thought, well why not bid what you really would bid at the table - and that is and will be next time 5C. I wondered if partner could pass this, but that is too hard seeing both hands. It's quite possible he would bid 6 with his excellent controls.

It used to be argued that raising on hands like this just helped opponents to envisage their shape and bid close games. Nowadays we attach much more importance to competing, but this hand is still marginal and I think I would just pass and let it go.

6S. I think we are just as likely to be making 13 tricks as 11.

1H - 5C ? Probably pass from South.

I am leading nine of diamonds. I don't see any urgency about leading a short suit.

5S If opponents get them right, and I don't, its well done to them at the end of the match.

Playing naturally I like 4C after 3H to show initially a good second suit. I would expect my auction to go: 1H-3H 4C-4H Pass If I felt compelled to go for a slam, I think just bidding six hearts is better than annoying partner with 4NT.

I bid 1NT, with a complete lack of conviction. But I am not worried about being doubled in 1NT. I'm more worried about partner bidding on, and going minus when I should be plus. 1NT doubled costs when the opponents get you two off and had no game, or one off and had no reasonable part score. This is very possible, but not terrifying. The down side is not having a reliable way to play in game when partner has a good pass. This is serious, and close to persuading me that 1H is better. But don't we get the same sort of numbers of good passes where we play in 3H going off? Maybe passing quietly trying your defensive skills for a change is the best answer.

Ace of Spades, heart to the Jack, small spade ruffed high, draw trumps ending in South and diamond to the Queen. Makes if hearts are no worse than 4-1, five trumps, three clubs, two spades, two diamonds. EDIT: don't tell me it doesn't work! I'll try again.

I would normally show a second suit with 2D. This hand may be the limit of the concept, and I wouldn't object that much to a two spades bid. In this style of 2 over 1, I would expect to have to play in game if I supported clubs: not the end of the world either. Now I'm going to bid 3S, because I expect some wasted heart values opposite, and nine is less than ten. My second choice would be 4C.

In real life I think I would assume the spade is not singleton and play: Ace of spades Ace and King of hearts to see if anything good happens Spade ruff (low) Ace of clubs (throw a spade) Club ruff Heart ruff Club ruff (low) If clubs aren't set up heart ruff, club ruff (high if West doesn't show out or fails to ruff high) etc Not great, but makes if king clubs come down in three, and diamonds are no worse than 3-1, or King of clubs comes down in four and diamonds are 2-2. There are various extra chances in hearts and extra chances of a complete cross ruff if West has three clubs and small trumps.

An unusual situation, and I hope I would follow exactly the same reasoning as awm - and quickly too because in my jurisdiction the penalty double in this position is now alertable!

I play 4 card majors and a weak no trump with some people and I'd expect to be in 3NT all the time. I won't be able to show club values and partners will take a chance on the diamonds rather than the 43 heart fit.

I think it is quite normal in cue bidding sequences to cue the higher minor in order to focus attention on a major suit weakness. It's fine if you disagree, but it seems a pity to have to give up on exploration with such a promising hand.

One thing is sure, you will not find out.

3C Why not? Not a lie. No more or less preemptive on the opponents than 2S from us.

Why does it show minor suit controls? I think I need two controls outside trumps to cue bid. If one was spades I would bid 5S, so they must be clubs and diamonds. I don't see this as high risk because partner will devalue club honours if thinking of seven. On the second I misread the bids for 5H vulnerable. I still think 6D is reasonable but not for the same reasons! One of the recent posts had several people bidding 5D over a 4M preempt with an enormous hand - where our sort of holding would easily make six. At least I understand the doublers now.

6D seems this shows minor suit controls and hearts, so should help partner. 6D I don't have a definite trick, and my holding may mean there is no diamond trick in defence. Looks like -300, versus doubled vulnerable game making to me.