joshs

A sucker bet... on any given hand, anything could make from 5♥ for them to 5♠ to you, or nothing can make. Just depends upon where the cards are. From your Response, I would guess that one side makes 11 tricks and the other 10 so the "correct" bid is 5♠ no matter which side wins 11. So what? Should that be the case, it makes 5♠ "the winning bid" but that outcome doesn't make double or 5♠ the "correct bid". And even in that case, if you bid 5♠ you might get it wrong, maybe it was far better to double, (neither side can amke 11 tricks), but if you doulbe, you miss your 5♠ when you make or you play 5♥X when they make. Without your follow up question, if I had to bet, I would think this is a 19 trick hand. or maybe a 20 trick hand. One thing seems clear, you will not run into a horrible spade split or they would have let you play 4♠. So partner likely has five, or if only four, they are spliting 3-2, and with five, no worse than 3-1. Without your follow up, my expectation would be for them to win 10 tricks. I expect we can win 10 tricks. I could be off by one trick for either side (we win 11, they win 10, or vise versa, or we win 9 they win 10 or vice versa). Bidding 5♠ wins if either side can make 11 tricks, loses if neither side can make 11 tricks, loses if it lets them bid 6♥ that makes, loses big if we can make only 8 tricks. Remember, you forced your partner to bid spades, how would you feel if he tabled four small spades to the Jack? (well you tabled your hand in spades and saw that). I don't think the cards are randomly distributed here. I think you have a lot of information about all 3 players hands... There has already been one VERY suprising turn of events here. You xed 4S, preying to god that if partner sits, that they are actually going down. Partner, thankfully bid 4S. And then passed 5H. I would have bet good money that partner was going to x 5H. This tells you a lot of information. I believe on this auction they are making 5H over 80% of the time and probably over 90% of the time. The main risk of bidding again, is not a phanton sac going for a number. It is pushing them to a making 6H. My matrix would have been: Making 6: 15% Making 5: 75% Making 4: 10% Making 3 or less, close to 0 This is based on partner not xing 5H when I have shown a LOT more defense than I actually have. As to what we are making. I find it hard to beleive that partner would not have xed even with a 42(43) 7 count. I expect most of the time partner has a 5'th spade, and usually some shape. So the question is: are we close to making? If I think they are [probably] making and we are close to making its clearing a good save at imps, unless it pushed them to 6H which is also making. Anyway, those were my thoughts when I gambled a 5S "save". Which part of the argument do you guys disagree with? As to the events matrix: 5S wins BIG if either side (or both) can make 5. It loses BIG if it pushes them to a making 6 It loses big if it goes down 2 xed when they weren't making It loses just a little if both sides were down 1. Note that the consequences assocaited with each of these combinations are different and I don't think the relative probability of each of these are anywhere close to equal.... Ok you bid 5s...what hands did you play partner for with this bid? I would have guessed the odds against 5s being the winning bid at a bit under 3:1. Lots of hands. You make up a hand with Hxxxx of spades, nothing in hearts and a 6-7 count and I felt it to be a good bet at imps. But this was an interesting problem in my mind because 5S is clearly a bad bid at mps, since you have already pushed them 1 level higher than some of the field...

I think xing 5H is absolutely clearcut on all of those... I would expect 5H to go down about 110% of the time when holding those hands and there is a signifcant risk that you were making 4S, so you need to get as much compensation as possible... :) (Ok maybe 5H is only going down 98.8% of the time...)

A sucker bet... on any given hand, anything could make from 5♥ for them to 5♠ to you, or nothing can make. Just depends upon where the cards are. From your Response, I would guess that one side makes 11 tricks and the other 10 so the "correct" bid is 5♠ no matter which side wins 11. So what? Should that be the case, it makes 5♠ "the winning bid" but that outcome doesn't make double or 5♠ the "correct bid". And even in that case, if you bid 5♠ you might get it wrong, maybe it was far better to double, (neither side can amke 11 tricks), but if you doulbe, you miss your 5♠ when you make or you play 5♥X when they make. Without your follow up question, if I had to bet, I would think this is a 19 trick hand. or maybe a 20 trick hand. One thing seems clear, you will not run into a horrible spade split or they would have let you play 4♠. So partner likely has five, or if only four, they are spliting 3-2, and with five, no worse than 3-1. Without your follow up, my expectation would be for them to win 10 tricks. I expect we can win 10 tricks. I could be off by one trick for either side (we win 11, they win 10, or vise versa, or we win 9 they win 10 or vice versa). Bidding 5♠ wins if either side can make 11 tricks, loses if neither side can make 11 tricks, loses if it lets them bid 6♥ that makes, loses big if we can make only 8 tricks. Remember, you forced your partner to bid spades, how would you feel if he tabled four small spades to the Jack? (well you tabled your hand in spades and saw that). I don't think the cards are randomly distributed here. I think you have a lot of information about all 3 players hands... There has already been one VERY suprising turn of events here. You xed 4S, preying to god that if partner sits, that they are actually going down. Partner, thankfully bid 4S. And then passed 5H. I would have bet good money that partner was going to x 5H. This tells you a lot of information. I believe on this auction they are making 5H over 80% of the time and probably over 90% of the time. The main risk of bidding again, is not a phanton sac going for a number. It is pushing them to a making 6H. My matrix would have been: Making 6: 15% Making 5: 75% Making 4: 10% Making 3 or less, close to 0 This is based on partner not xing 5H when I have shown a LOT more defense than I actually have. As to what we are making. I find it hard to beleive that partner would not have xed even with a 42(43) 7 count. I expect most of the time partner has a 5'th spade, and usually some shape. So the question is: are we close to making? If I think they are [probably] making and we are close to making its clearing a good save at imps, unless it pushed them to 6H which is also making. Anyway, those were my thoughts when I gambled a 5S "save". Which part of the argument do you guys disagree with? As to the events matrix: 5S wins BIG if either side (or both) can make 5. It loses BIG if it pushes them to a making 6 It loses big if it goes down 2 xed when they weren't making It loses just a little if both sides were down 1. Note that the consequences assocaited with each of these combinations are different and I don't think the relative probability of each of these are anywhere close to equal....

Assuming pard is 4=2=4=3 shape with 7-8 working hcp (whcp) then I expect to take 9 tricks in spades. Assuming pard has 9-10 whcp I expect to take ten tricks. Assuming Pard has only 2 clubs then add one more trick. I expect the opp can make ten (65%) or eleven (35%) tricks in Hearts I don't believe that is a possible hand. Lets say you held that hand, wouldn't you have x'ed 5H?

I guess I was the only person who thought this was an interesting problem. lets have a vote: a. How many tricks do we expect them to take? 9 tricks or less? 10 tricks? 11 tricks? 12 tricks? (Give probabilities) b. What distribution would you give on how many tricks we can take?

You are palying 2/1, your opps are playing precision: P-P-4H-? [hv=d=w&v=n&s=skxxxhdj9xcakxxxx]133|100|Scoring: IMP[/hv] a. what do you bid? Lets say like me, you made an agressive x. and the auction continued: P-P-4H-x P-4S-P-P 5H-P-P-? b. What now?

Josh - with 5 spades and 3 hearts it seems on balance better to be in 4♥, because of the positional considerations. I think this is a great hand for a sim. yes I agree. but there are at least 4 considerations: a. positional b. intermediates are really important in a 7 card fit and you are looking at the heart intermediates c. repeated taps seem more damaging in spades d. on the other hand having the weak hand's suit as trumps gives him entries, so that is one plus for spades Anyway, my only point was: To first order you want to maximize: a. the probability that you are in a 8 card trump fit (get to good spot) and minimize b. the probability that you have less than 7 trumps (avoid disaster) I think the question about which 7 card fit will play better is important but not as important as a and b.

The way I play SJS auctions (Washington Standard): After 1S-1N-3H 3S waiting. May be be 1-3 in the majors. Opener rebids 3N without any extra shape. 3N Lots of stuff in the minors. At least 2.5 stoppers. 4m natural (some may prefer to play these as cue-bid or as strong raises of the corresponding major) 4H at least 4 card support 4S 3 card limit raise, slam interest After minor suit JS's direct raises usually show 5 cards. 1S-1N-3C(frequently a 3 card suit with a spade 1 suiter, on rare occasion might even be only 2...) 3D natural, strong 5+ card suit 3H natural, strong 5+ card suit 3S waiting, may be a stiff. Opener rebids 3N without extra shape (which confirms real clubs) 3N Lots of stuff in the reds 4C 5 Clubs, some slam interest or a hand that no longer thinks that 3N is a good idea. Can also be 4 clubs, singleton somewhere, and serious slam interest. 4D/H Splinters or keycard in clubs (4D is keycard if you play kickback) or whatever. 5 very strong clubs or 6 clubs. 4S 3 card limit raise, slam interest. 5C 6 card support, good trumps, not much else Its very common to bid 3 red or 3S and then 4C to show 4 trumps and a decent hand. Etc.

Wine tasting my place saturday night, 6172 periwinkle way, woodland hills, ca Phone:505-379-2896 Starting about 7 PM. I am supplying the wine...

Adam pretty much explained this (x and then correct ALWAYS shows extras, just like a takeout x and then a new suit) Further after partner has shown values, and then you make a bid that shows extras, that bid is forcing. The one thing to note is on hand types that x's and then corrects. This is typically a strong, somewhat flexable hand that would be happy to hear partner pass. You may be any of: 1633 1642 1624 26(32) 26(41) on this auction. and possibly even a hand like x Axxxxxx AKx AK with a weak 7 card suit and great defense.

Interesting. It wouldn't have occured to me. And if I new for sure that LHO wasn't going to bid again, I am pretty sure you are right, but the possibility that LHO bids again, and partner raises me is a consideration: If we make the assumption that partner has exactly 1 club then partner's average length in S,H,D is: 4.71,3.86,3.43 To compare the x and pass strategy vs the overcall 4H strategy We are interested in two probabilitity comparisions: 1. P(partner has 4+ H) vs P(partner has 6+ S GIVEN that he bids spades over a x) 2. P(partner has 3+H) vs P(Partner has 5+S GIVEN that he bids spades over the x) To answer the conditional probability question, the question is what does partner bid with 4-4 or 5-5 in the majors. I will assume that partner will consider suit quality, and otherwise pick hearts if its close. So lets say with equal length, 60% of the time partner picks hearts (I do have the JT9 so partner is much more likely to have spade intermediates). Anyone on this list up to the task of computing the relevent probabilities, under the above assumptions?

1. I hate opening 2C with 2 suiters, but this hand is a monster. If partner passes 1H you are not just worried about missing game, you are worried about missing slam. You have to open 2C. 2. If you for some reason put a gun to my head and made me open 1H, I would bid 5N (pick a slam) next....

2H. Yes I know this shows 5, but my primary interest is to be able to offer a choice between 3N and 4S, and the best way of doing that is by bidding where I live. After 2H you plan on raising 2N to 3N or otherwise supporting spades. Now if you play some sort of stupid fast arrival where partner will jump to 4H on 3 card support, then you better have the agreement that correcting to 4S is to play...

Opener: Axx Axxxx AKJx x Responder: x KQxx Qxxx xxxx 1C!-(3S)-X showing 4+H and values. WTP? Of course I am not advocating that all X's in these auctions are penalty! That would be foolish. Where I'm advocating penalty X's is by the hand most likely to be flat and strong in auctions where Responder has =denied= being able to show shape/strength and the Opponent's already rate to be too high: 1C!-(3S)-pa-pa;?? when holding ♠AJ62♥AT♦AK43♣K32 If there ever was a hand with convertible values and enough power tricks to know the 3S does not rate to make, this is it. I'll give another example in a different auction: 1N-pa-pa-balance; some bidding by Overcaller and Advancer; X by Responder. THIS SHOULD ALWAYS BE PENALTY. Responder knows They have too few HCP and/or shape to rate to make Their contract. If no X is ever penalty systemically in these sorts of situations, you are going to get robbed blind. ...and jdonn, Fishbein was specifcally designed to deal with a frequent psycher (Adam Meredith IIRC). It worked for that purpose. Oh so you magically play penalty x's by opener and takeout x's by responder. Thus when responder has length you do not get the penalty. Those are the 800-1400's. Instead you get +150 against your game. And when opener has moderate extra strength and shortness he has to pass, and with a moose and shortness: x AKxx AKQx AKxx 1C-3S-P-P let me guess, you bid 4S on this and go down at the 5 level when a. you had 800 in 3S-x or b. you can make 4H or c you can make 3N or d. multiple of these Are these your methods???

President has a 2 term limit, but other federal positions don't have limits...

If I decided to open 1H on this hand then I have already decided I am not strong enough for a third bid. Hands that are strong enough for 3 bids should be describing there shape correctly... Now I have no problem with the 1H opening, you just have decided to bid conservatively and are planning on passing 2H in this auction. Now if systemically you have to open 1H (say opening a minor denies a 5 card major), then partner will be aware that 3D might be 5-6 and this hand might be barely good enough for 3D. (Partner will expect a 5-5 16 count or good 15 count and this hand is about as good). For instance if you played washington standard and partner has a 5224 7 count, they will know to pass 3D since you might be 5=6 but wouldn't bid this way with 6=5.

In TOSR before I changed the order of the stopper asks (Dan if you are reading, did we adopt that change, or just me and John): 1C(15+)-2D(5+C)-2H®-2S(0-2 spades)-2N®-3D(2335)-3S(asks for spade stopper, shows a minimum hand)-4C(No spade stopper, 9-12ish)-P Win 8. I recently re-ordered the stopper asks so the 3 card suits come before the 2 card suits, so we wouldn't have a spade stopper ask available here. If you felt you wanted to invite opposite 9-12 you can bid a non-forcing 4D next, but I would just want to get out with this hand. I guess technically the auction could go: 1C-2D(5+C)-2H®-2S(0-2 spades)-3H(min hand, asks for a spade stopper)-3S(9-12, no stopper)-4C(Not forcing)-P(Some extras, but no spade control....) Actually this is a quite good auction, since you are not wrongsiding NT by bidding 2N as the relay. I don't think it's realistic to pass 4♣, chances of game are pretty high and you stayed out of the doomed 3NT already. 5m is still a possibility in opener's view, so 4♦ is the least he can still do, and I don't see East passing that. Playing a relaysystem makes it difficult to stay out of 3NT, but it makes it almost impossible to stay out of 5m as well imo. Bidding problems with open cards are always solved VERY nicely, but at the table I would never see this auction appear! Most would end up in 3NT or 5m, usually going down. There seems to be a huge lack of realism, usually with people playing non-natural methods... Apparently it's just too hard to look at 1 hand at a time, realise what you know about partner's hand from the bidding, and make a decent decision. I don't see anyone mention WHY they pass at 4♣, what risks they take,... I am not sure which auction you are talking about. In the second auction, it is opener who has bid 4C, and responder who has to decide if he is worth going to game: In this auction, I think its clearly correct to pass 4C and isn't even a close decision. You know your qx is wasted. Hence you have 9 working points opposite 15-17 which is not enough for 5 of a minor in absence of a singleton in the critical suit. Move the SQ somewhere else and you should gamble 5C since then you are in the right ballpark. In the other auction, it is responder who has bid 4C. Here opener is a dead min with mediocre shape but all the points are working. They have somewhere between 24 and 27 points between them. Techically you need 28/29 for 5 of a minor. Further, you know at the other table they are palying 3N and are probably not making it (unless a non-spade is led) after a 1N-3N auction. Lets look at the imp odds: RED IN 4 making 4 you are +130+100=230=+6 In 4 making 5 = same plus 6 In 5 making 4= Push In 5 making 5 = +12 So you actually have exactly even money odds on bidding game here, and I don't think you have even money odds on making game opposite 11-12 working points but its close. (The points have to be HA CAQ DQ/J OR HA CAJ DQ , and except fo the HA CAQ DQ hand the odds are less than 50% because you might have a 4-1 trump break.) White: In 4 making 4 its +180=+5 In 4 making = smae +5 In 5 making 4=push In 5 making 5=+10 So again its exactly even money.

In one partnership I used to play penalty x's after a 2 level or higher interference over our strong club. I think it was an unmitigated disaster. The following "hand" came up very frequently Opener: Axx Axxxx AKJx x Responder: x KQxx Qxxx xxxx 6H is excellent. And its hard to get a better score than +100 playing penalty x's. On the other hand when one of the hands actually had a penalty x, the other player was usually short and could make a takeout x... Yes if opener has 22 and responder has only 2 you can't get your penalty, but that mesh doesn't occur very often.

In the US, about 50% of the voting age population vote in presidential elections (every 4 years in November). For other elections the turnout is a lot lower. Senators (2 from each state) have 6 year terms, and there terms are staggered So there are elections for senator in each state 2 out of 6 years (but always in even numbered years) Approximently every 500,000 people get a representative in the house of representatives (each representative represents 1 district, which is wholy contained within a state. The exact shape of the districts are drawn by the states legislature, subject to a couple of restrictions, and causes much contraversy every time.) These representatives go up for election every 2 years (again also even years). Local elections follow there own pattern. States have governors, a senmtate, a lower legislature. Again these are all directly elected. The US follows the following scheme for most elections: a. Party's nominate a candidate. If that party had gotten enough votes in the previous election (5%?) their candidate automatically appears on the ballot. Otherwise, you must get enough signatures from voters to get on the ballot. (same procedure to appear on the ballot as an indpendant) The parties usually have an election to determine their candidate, but other schemes are sometimes used. (A party meeting called a caucus is sometimes used. These have much smaller tournouts than elections). b. then a vote occurs to determine which candidate wins. Its basically direct elections, not parmimentary (where your representatives in parliment determine which of them is the "leader") For presidential elections each state (with 2 exceptions) is winner take all. Getting the most votes gives you credit for x number of votes for the president, where x is approximently equal to population/500000 (rounded up) +2 (e.g. Senators plus representatives). Call these votes electoral college votes. In case no candidate got more than half of the total number of electoral college votes, the electoral college votes are turned into people who represent their candidate, and they can negiotiate and re-vote until a winner is elected. I call this a negiotiated run-off (a majority is really required, not just the person with the most votes, but rather than having the top two candidates have a re-vote, representatives of all candidates negitiate a winner, so essentially the 3'rd place finished decides who to throw their support to...) If I remember correctly, a presidential election hasn't been decided by a "run-off" for 200 years. For other elections, state rules apply so are different from election to election. Some elections are by pluraility (most votes wins), some have run-offs from the top 2 candidates. Occasionally you might even see a "select 6 of these 20 candidates" for city councel, so you vote for 6 and the top 6 get elected. Its all very complicated...

In my usual methods, this is a pass. Partner would have taken some action with 5 points (and maybe even stretched with just an ace) and a singleton spade or with 7 and a doubleton spade (and even with some nice 6's), hence, except for the rare times that partner has 3 spades and 6-8ish, the best hand he can have is 2 spades and a 6 count. Hence you are not making 3N on power. If partner has a 5 count and a 5 card suit you might be able to make a light 3N if 3S was a classic pre-empt, but if instead the 3 spade bidder has entries, he might be able to afford to give up 2 spade tricks and still win the race to 5 tricks...

In TOSR before I changed the order of the stopper asks (Dan if you are reading, did we adopt that change, or just me and John): 1C(15+)-2D(5+C)-2H®-2S(0-2 spades)-2N®-3D(2335)-3S(asks for spade stopper, shows a minimum hand)-4C(No spade stopper, 9-12ish)-P Win 8. I recently re-ordered the stopper asks so the 3 card suits come before the 2 card suits, so we wouldn't have a spade stopper ask available here. If you felt you wanted to invite opposite 9-12 you can bid a non-forcing 4D next, but I would just want to get out with this hand. I guess technically the auction could go: 1C-2D(5+C)-2H®-2S(0-2 spades)-3H(min hand, asks for a spade stopper)-3S(9-12, no stopper)-4C(Not forcing)-P(Some extras, but no spade control....) Actually this is a quite good auction, since you are not wrongsiding NT by bidding 2N as the relay.

1. With John or Dan: 1C(Strong, ART)-1S(balanced or both reds)-1N(relay)-2H(balanced, 4-4 in majors or minors)-2S®-3C(4432)-3D®-3H(9-12ish)-4N(Natural, Quant, no minor suit fit)-P With Marc: 1C-1D(H)-2D(natural, a reverse)-3N(10+-12)-4N-P 2. It seems like there should be some way to endplay RHO into playing spades for me, but I can't work this out, so I am just winning the club, and playing some more clubs... If RHO is 2344 he wins the 4'th club. exits safely, and then gets squeezed by the 5'th club. If RHO is 3334 I don't see how to make this. 3. 3N. I might be very wrong....

Here is a story from OK Bridge from about 7 years ago: Bob Kerchner sits down with Les Bart (both are good players from the DC area) to play against a pair with identical 75 Lehman ratings. (The highest possible). Les was highly suspicious of the identical 75 lehmans (there was another such pair kicked out for cheating). On the first hand, this pair played perfectly, and Les started grumbling. On the second hand, again they played perfectly and won 5 imps, Les got up from his seat and said "I'm sorry, you guys are too good for us" and left the table. At this point Bob, now upset that his quality game had been cut short said "I am truely sorry, Mr. Garozzo." Benito and Lea went by Papi and Snabu on okb, and this was before everyone knew who they were...

No not worth another call. Thinking is an overbid. Your best chance for a plus is by passing...

4.7 diamonds.