benlessard

Interesting side question you are west and you hold the 5152, you are playing against a perfect computer who remember all the hands that you have played against him. What is your discard strategy ? How often are you going to discard 2D & 1S ?

low to T low to K win 50% A on the right,+12% Hx on the right and 12% for QJ(x) on the right so its about 75% I think its going to be tough to beat. I was thinking starting with the 9 but losing to stiff Q/J or losing to Qx/Jx is too much.

Most of the 5152 hes going to discard all the S and keep the D. So with perfect defense only part of the 5152 are there not the full 21.5%

as long as 40% of the players consisting a teams are BBO posters its ok. But first we need 5 captain (im going to be 1 of them). Captain job is not complicated in the beginning, its at the end of the season where there is only 1-2 opponent left to play that he must make extra effort to convince his teammates to be available :) There is no entry fee.

I think partner with a good 15 or 16 (4333) can bid 3m to send back the ball at us, so here I expect him to have a poor/medium 15 wich make it an easy pass. However this is a clear GF at Imps 2 aces and JTx are great cards.

Agree. Even (3D)--X--(P)--4D can be 5c and a 4M. Choosing the right game is always more important than slam try. In this case, over 4C without special agreement i think these are natural responses. 4D= i like D ---4H = both M ---4S = 4S+5D not slammish ---4Nt rkc in D ---5C light slam try in D ---5D to play 4H= I like H ----4S= S+D ----4NT = rkc in H ----5C asking for C control ----5D D+S slam try ----5H slam try in H 4S = im 5332/5341/ and im willing to play 4S/5D -----4Nt rkc in S -----5C slam try D+H -----5D D+H IMO With both M slammish responder need to bid 4Nt(Pick-A-Suit) not 4C

My 1st goal would be to have reliable captains/teams so that scheduling matches are easy and that there is no quitting in the middle of the "season". I prefer to have extras players and substitute rather than it being a nightmare to schedule a match, so I guess as long as 40% (2/5, 3/7) of the player in a team are Bbo forum poster Im ok with that. Playing strongs teams on BBO is great for people who dont have time (or money) to play Nationals or strong tournament, those people are unlikely to have the time to be be regular BBO forum poster anyway(like my partner). I guess if we have more than 10 teams wich seem unlikely we should split and make 2 groups. Trust me I like money too. Im going to play a tournament this weekend and there good chance I wont be able to play in the top bracket. So it going to cost me one hour of travel each day + entry fees + bad hotel restaurant and in the end ill play weaker players than good matchs on BBO. Also on BBO I dont need to shuffle, hold the score and write down/remember the hand ive played. Also in a tournament a 4 hour bridge session = less than 3hour on BBO. So in the end 30$ for a good match and saving 2 hours is a good deal. So inquiry, Mrace are you willing to be captains ? Also Ill discuss with captains if i should pay in BBO$ or in real $.

Something like 6 teams playing a round robin. The 2 top finisher play a KO. Schedule can be slack like 1 match per 2/3 weeks. Im willing to put 150$ of my own pocket for a small prize. Team captain have to schedule their own a match. At least 1 in every 3 weeks. 5 matchs +finals within 3 months is reasonnable. Every 3 months we can start a cycle & ill put up 150$ on each of them(as long as the can$ stay strong :) ). We can also matchup pairs to make teams. Also it would be good practice for those who want to play JEC like discussed here. http://www.bridgebase.com/forums/topic/50916-bb-forums-vs-jec-regular-team-game/ Anyone interested ?

The upside of KI are just so huge that even if you did hit a bad run and lose a couple of board you will all win them back in a fairly short time IMO. esp at MP.

Over our strong club (15+ often bal) we play this. 1C--?? 1D= H or points 1H= S weak or GF 1S = no m weak or both m GF 1C--1D--?? with a minimum balanced or 19-20 and at least 3H we bid 1H otherwise we bid 1S that can be 3 with medium balance 17-18 we bid 1NT with 19-20 and 4 card support we bid 2H. responder is expect to take another bid with 6-8 or pass 1H with 0-5. 1C-1D-1H-1S = GF bal or inv range check 1C-1D-1H-1NT = inv with 4/5 S 1C-1D-1H-2x = transfer inv in the suit (may have no hearts) or H+transferred suit GF. Once you have the guarranted 4-3 heart fit all responder 2nd bids can be invitationnal or GF. So even in a natural 1C opening i believe completing showing 3 has great advantages.

In addition if either defender held four hearts and the spade king then we would have seen either a heart discard or the spade king. The problem is that east can discard the K of S after the dummy. So he can discard the K of S from spade lenght randomly or to fool you into thinking he is long in H.

Another way to check your solution is to find at what point do you know East or West is favorite to be longer in H and why does it change at that point. When declarer cashed 3D+1H+1S+2C the position at this point is totally symmetric (so both defender have the same expected H lenght). After the 3rd club (defense 1st discard) are the defense significant discard (IMO no) ? Does it change something that west discarded a D when he could have discarded a S (no again) ? What about the 2nd discard ? (imo its still even no matter what the discard are since both players have idle cards) What if on the 3rd discard (on the last club) you see west a computer player discarding the K of S or you see a human player conceding or see the player go into thinking and discard a H ? How do you think the H split now ? IMO its clear that the odds are shifting exactly when the 5th club is cashed and west make is 3rd discard.

Im in for sure, however we should make some team qualifier like a mini round robin would be nice. In fact its a crime we are not running an BBO league.

It a simpler but equivalent solution to what i was thinking before. Before the run of the clubs West has 7 know cards and 6 vacant spaces & so do East. This IMO is the important starting point. We know that West has at least 3 idles cards (he cannot have Ks and the 3 remaining hearts) and that west has at least 2 idle cards (for him the K of S is an idle card since he can discard it easily after dummy discard his J of S). So the H distribution should be ---5 vacants spaces for West and 6 vacants spaces for East. West is going the have Jxx in hearts slightly more than 6% and East has twice the odds (more than 12%) to have the 3 remaining H.

Edited Sorry Han and others, Im a native french speaker and work night shift and its close to my sleeping time now. IMO I don't think we should say the discards are irrelevant. After cashing the fist 7 tricks we learn [hv=pc=n&w=s2h3d432c32&e=s3h2d765c54]266|100[/hv] Its symmetrical and if we make the asumption that H break 4-1 we can say for sure that E and W are equally likely to have 4H (in a no-bidding vacuum). Here are the a priori west hands depending if west started with 4H or with only 1. Lets give the name "DS" for D or S idle cards. with 4H x xxxx xxx xx with 3 (DS) or with 2DS+Ks with a stiff H x x xxx xx with 6DS or with 5DS +Ks on the run of the clubs west two first discards will be 2DS, he will never discard a H or the K of S. If its one diamond & one spade or 2 spades or 2 diamonds its irrelevant. He always have 2 free DS available for discarding, so these are non significant discards. However on the 5th clubs the 3rd discard by West he still cannot discard the K of S nor a heart so at this point if he got 4H & the K of S he wont have an idle DS available to discard. So in that position when he discard a DS here its a meaningful discard not an irrelevant one. So that change the odds. The fact that he knowned with 1 more free DS than EAST mean hes got one less vacant space in his hand. If we put West with 5 vacant space and 6 vacant space to east we get these H splits. No-W---E--Probability--Times--Total 1--0---Jxx--12.121------1-----12.121 2--x---Jx---15.152-----2-----30.303 3--xx--J----12.121-----1-----12.121 4--J---xx---15.152-----1-----15.152 5--Jx--x----12.121-----2-----24.242 6--Jxx--0----6.061------1-----6.061 Bonus question what if East discard the Ks after north discard his J of S ?

Even if calculating this example has no real life benefit, the ideas behind the solution will be useful on others hands, of course trying to find the perfect solution or proof might have no application in real life, but in general there is always something not obvious to learn from these case and trying to find out by yourself is often a good start to understand these things IMO even if you know your tries are likely to be far from the solution.

If your 1D is at least 4 than diamonds hands in the 15-21 range are better in 1D than in 1C. The drawback of not being to psych is compensated but clearer auction and by freeing up 1C--???--2D to show many strong hands or 3 card fits or whatever. 1C--1??--2D as showing D is terrible.

I think the quick way to see it is that if west has 4H the first D discard is insignificant but the 2nd diamond discard is significant since he cannot discard the Ks from Kx. Therefore we have to assume that some of the time west has 4D and east had 3D. Wich mean that east slightly more likely to have 4H than west. (if the J of S is replaced by a low S its even) But i rarely get these thing right so im probably wrong

BW is still down :( --I was really wrong on this one because i thought the A of D was clearcut. North bid 4S without inviting despite being short in HCP so it suggest, hes a stiff or both M (45,55,54) or that hes got an invite with 5S/6S (bidding 2S over 2red). Since declarer denies 3H north isnt short in H. My thought was that if north has C shortness we have to try for a D ruff and if hes short in D i dont see how we can put this down. Pts are likely to be 11-15-6-8 but if north has 7pts or less hes highly favorite to have a stiff clubs or a 6th spades. Unfortunatly i dont remeber if it was imps or MP.

[hv=pc=n&w=s85ht642da5cqt532&d=e&v=0&b=14&a=1d1np2cp2sp4sppp]133|200[/hv] Great article from Kit Corner, i was posting a reply but their site is down now. 1D is 11-13 bal or 11-15.

I dont see why you would like to play any other range here. I just played 2 doubled hands recently. (1H)-X-(1S)-P (1Nt)-X all pass (1S)-X-(1Nt)-X (not resp) in both case opener had a real opening + responder had 6/7 pts = -300/-500. On both of them I tought it was poor to respond with 6-7 pts. IMO responding light over a takeout X only work when you are white at MP or you have a good or long suit.

South should bid 6D (Ks ask) and it will be north to decided if QJT and a likely well placed Ks is worth a shot a 7. North hand could easily be same without the J of S

With good S hes going to bid 3S, so imo hes favorite to have a 4m.

I think 2H is clear and its not too tough to see why. Most hands with 4H will raise to 3H. To pass 2H with x Axxx KJxxx xxx is a joke, If you play 2H making 6 that its because you dont know what a courtesy raise is. Of course making courtesy raise will lead to 3H going down while 2H is the limit but often they can compete to 3m anyway, if your going down in 3H in a 4/4 fit often they make 3m and can bit it anyway. Most 23?? will also bid 2S, over wich its going to be easy to play 3H/4H accordingly, if it goes 1S--3H--responder will often bid 3NT rather than the correct 4H, if the contract is between 4H/3NT or between 3H/4H bidding 2H will turn out much better (this is different if you play some gadget allowing 3H to show 5-5). Like Frances said some slam are even easier to bid after 1S--1nt--2H than after 1S--NT--3H (but its rare so i wouldnt worry about it) If partner has 23?? garbage He should pass 2H hoping that the 43 will play as good as the 52 fit, with those hand its much better than to play 2H than any games. So IMO the only case in favor of 3H is medium hands 13?? or 03?? wich are very narrow in frequency compared to the others cases. Lamford is right in saying that with Axxxx and good KQxxx will overbid more than with KQxxx and Axxxx since 13 is possible but not 31. If responder has 13?? and a range of 5-11 for the 1Nt, I expect responder to bid 2NT or making a 3 card raise with 10-11. With 5/6 game doesnt rate to be good. So only 7-9 pts 13 where game is going to be 55%-58% are a problem.

1- Establish how weak can your 2C opener be. (usually with S you can be more agressive). 2 Decide if with borderline 2 suiters you prefer to open 1M and miss some game but have easier auctions most of the time. 2- define what is maximum crap on wich you could bid 2H neg. (i would never bid 2H with 4 pts and rarely with 3) After that you will be well placed to play what is best for you. I dont like opening 2C so my hands tend to be heavy/ not often 2 suiters, so i play that 2H is real garbage. So 2H is not forcing and most opener rebid arent forcing. With a GF m hand i just bid 3NT knowing that slam is unlikely. IMO 80% of 2C hands are near GF and only 20% are true GF (making game vs a 0-2 pts and no trumps support)