benlessard

[hv=d=s&v=b&b=7&a=1h1s2h3s4hpp4sdppp]133|100[/hv] 3S is preemptive, West first pass is done after a long hesitation and East clearly bid 4S because of the BIT. Everybody agree about the BIT, the UI and that passing 4H instead of 4S is LA. However south made a really stupid mistake (on par with a revoke) and instead of 4Sx -2 , 4S is now making (from +500 to -790 ouch). 4H would have been making four. Assume that the low difficulty of defending 4Sx for +500 is exactly the same than to make 4H for +620. Im not interested in the proper ruling under the current laws, I don't care about EW score or procedural penalties, im only interested in what would you consider a fair score for NS if you were king for a day and had to write your own bridge laws. +620... VS ethical players NS should be in 4H making so giving them less than 620 doesnt fully protect them. somewhere between 400 and 570.... Its +620 minus a penalty for the stupid mistake. I want to charge at least a little something for the gross mistake. between +150 and -150.... VS a normal 4S bid the stupid mistake would have cost 1290 pts (from +500 to -790) So giving them a penalty of about 650 pts make sense. -200, if south is making an equivalent mistake in 4H he would be -200 instead of +620. -670 (the 4S bid only rob them of 120 pts, from +620 to +500 so I see the damages as mostly NS fault so -790 but with a kickback of 120 because of the EW infraction. -790 NS keep their result, they are the prime responsible in their own damage by "failure to play bridge". Would it matter if it was a KO team event VS a MP/imps pairs event where there is a field to protect ?

VGood problem. I had some bugs too but not on the correct line.

The other thing im thinking about is having 4 trumps raise without the QJ of trumps are quite different from those with good trumps. Bad trumps are great to avoid trumps waste. Good trumps are great for dummy reversal if opener got a singleton.

This hand just gave me an idea on how to easily test resulting bias in bridge. You have an example hand like this where you make an ATB poll where you didnt bid game but made 6or7. Give the same hand to others players and you tell them that game was missed but you made 4or5. The difference of 2H/3H between the 2 group will give an idea of the resulting bias.

If you open agressively east hand look like a WTP constructive raise to me, I tend to be on the sound side so I could see myself make a limit with east hand. Qxx AQJxx Kx xxx or any hand with Kxx(x) or Qxx(x) in clubs and you will have a lot of poor 3H and 4H contract. Making a light limit will often lead you to a sub par 4H. Sound invite light accept is clearly the way to go at imps. If you cant stand missing these game you should use 2C as any hand with a fit constructive or better. There is a point i want to make about having 4 little trumps is that yes you are less likely to have trump waste however partner will stretch to open light if hes got a good suit so 3H is not totally safe.

Its wrong to think that the finesse become more attractive in BAM. The strategy should be the same in MP and in BAM if the estimate of the the others tables (doesnt matter how many) is similar to the probabilistic curve of a single table.

Switch scheme are very often better than standard because it allow you to have a neg free bid in one suit and still have two real 2/1 & it will rightside more often. Our opening are always unbalanced so we dont really need 1Nt as natural and we like to rightside. So we play X = nt or neg rest is transfers except bid in our suits and transfer in opp suits.

What you are describing is an illusion. Assuming you guess that your single opponents are going to be in A 15% B 40% C 45% than your strategies vs a field with those probabilities should be the same. Often the field will be ABCDEF but DEF can be removed because no matter what you do wont matter vs these contracts. So in the end its your strategy vs the relevant contracts ABC that matter. In a large field there is always offbeat result that are creating noise but not matter what you do it wont change your MP score vs those tables so it shouldnt change your strategy.

After a 1D opening south may make a takeout X and NS may endup in 2S so south having Kxxx is a less likely relevant holding because of 2S and 3D contracts. If south manage to discard from Kxxx congrats !

im not sure how you can expect a 9-11 to bid again when responder could be (3334) even if he promise pts. Im used to play 12-14 even vul so running out to the best partscore is of prime importance for me. Being able to play 1NTxx got very little values imo, however XX to show pts got some values since it help you punish them but IMO its not enough to compensate for the easier runout. I guess there is a small hidden cost of Kamikaze NT. 1NT-(X)-?? if 1NT is 12-14 the X is usually 14+ and game (by opener) is very unlikely without mjaor distribution because the pts are over the pts, while if the 1NT range is 9-11 the X can be slightly more agressive and game by opener is less unlikely because responder pts will be over the doubler.

My idea is a long shot, if there is a weak nt in one of the seat and another opening bid (not preempt) in the other direction is it better for the weak Nt hand to be after or before the ennemy opening bid. Both 1m and 1nt opening will be interesting. The result should give an idea if opening light balanced hand make some sense other than the expectation to have a plus score based on values. Not only that but over 1m by opponents you can make a 1M overcall than is not a 1M opening, you can X and you can do 2 suiters bids. Also you get information if you end up declarer.

Im wondering if someone got data about the advantages of opening before your opponents. Obviously the preempts and spades hands are going to be the big winners but if we remove the preempts is being dealer and opening before your opponents such a big advantage ?

Tough hand, IRL I think I would also have bid 5D but im not sure what I would have done with north hand. Maybe south can afford to take his time since hes got 4 spades. north could easily be x Axxxx AKxxx Ax and 6 is vgood. maybe north can take the push after all, he just need a Major ace. South bid 5D to make so its unlikely he doesnt have a M ace imo.

I strongly believe this scheme is one of the best scheme available. Pass = pts or 4333 (obviously opener can still XX with a 5 card suit) RDbl = scrambling (no 5-card suit) 2X = to play, 5+X Imo treating a 4333 as a single suiter or double suiter is a losing strategy. After you get doubled on round 2, XX = lowest suit is better, bid = this suit + a better higher suit. ex 1NT-(X)-xx-(P) 2C--(X)-?? 2H= H+S better spades 2D = D+M better major XX = better D+M or better H+S this allow you to rightside more often.

(1C)-1D-(1H)-X (P)-?? can overcaller rebid 1S with a 2452 shape with shitty diamonds ?

I would really need to be desperate to bid 2C VUL with KJ852. Its ok to do it with a 5 carder but with a good suit not a crappy one. Very good play problem. This was really a "no respect" double im glad you punish the double.

IMO 3C show a hand that is willing to play 3C vs a D preempt. With a hand with a game interest I would bid 2M not 3C. Its like 1C-2D where 2D is wjs 3C is surely not a forward going move in my book.

In MP you can live without a forcing opening, just having 2C as preempt will compensate the strong hand when it goes 1M--all pass and you make 5. Also many solutiond with a forcing club will be better than a 2C strong anyway.

If I was to make my responses worked for PC it would looked like. 1C-?? 1D=Hearts or 6-11 (GF vs a 17+) 1H= S 0-5 or GF 1S = no majors 0-5 or 12+ 1NT= clubs 0-5 or 12+ 2C = D 0-5 or 12+ 2D = 6H 0-5 or GF 2H = 6S 0-5 or Gf 1C-1D-?? 1M= 12-14 bal (with 3H and 4S you bid 1H) 1NT=18-20 2H= 18-20 with 4H after 1C-1H-?? 1C-1S-?? opener can bid 1S/1NT with both 12-14 or 17-20 with no problems sicne responder is weak enough taht there is no game vs 17-20 or strong enough to GF vs 12-14. After 1C-1D-1H-?? pass = 4H and less than 11. 1S = pts but not 4H (its forcing) 1NT = pts and 4S (NF) 2C = inv with clubs or H+C GF 2D = INV with H or H+C GF 2H = INV with S or H+S GF 2S and higher = C+H GF. its not really working in comp bidding since 6-11 is too wide but the basic idea is still the same.

What we do right now is similar to polish club but with a 15+ 1C opening. our 1C is 15+, often bal or with clubs or with 15-17 and 5M (many unbal from 15-21 are NOT opened 1C) we play transfers responses. So 1D is H or INV. the rest is transfer weak or GF. 1C-1D-1M could be 3 card but its 15-16 or 19-20 (similar to PC where it can be a min bal or 17-18 with 5M). Balanced 17-18 without 4H = 1NT, 18-20 and 4 trumps we bid 2H. With 17 and 4H we are stuck, either upgrade to 18 (2H) downgrade to 16(1H) or we bid 1Nt to show 17-18 (but hide the 4th heart). 1C-1H(s)-1NT, 1C-1S(no M)-1nt is 15-20, note that this pose no problems since responder is either 0-5 or 9+. However 15-16 & 19-20 together got a flaw, responder cannot pass 1M with 6pts or a good 5 (similar to PC where it can be a min bal or 17-18 with 5M), but the good thing is he make an invite opener got a clear accept or a clear refusal unless hes got a club hand. Also the 17 with 4H is annoying. Im thinking to switch to 15-18 and 1C-1D-1NT to be 19-20. The good thing is that responder will be able to pass with 6 pts and invite only with the 7-8. The drawback is that 1C-1D-1NT 19-20 is going to be rare. Also with clubs and a 3M or 4M it used to be 1C-1D-1H (could be 5C+3H unb and 15-20) 1C-1D-1S (could be 5/6C+4S and 15-20) but now with those hands we might be stuck to bid 2C. I guess a possible solution is to keep 1S as 15-20 but 1H is 15-18. Note that I have played 1H forcing (in 1C-1D-1H) for many years but I am now strongly convinced NF is better so I wont change that for sure, but if 1H is NF than 15-18 got to make more sense than 15-16/19-20 even if this mean 1C-1D-1NT as 19-20 is going to be quite rare.

IDK what should be the difference between 6C and 5NT here. However I think overcaller can scramble over scramble with 6C. Without discussion I would assume 5NT--?? 6D should suggest D+M 6H H+S so maybe 6C should suggest a better S with tol in one red. I guess it should be a fun thing to sort out. In retrospect its true that 6C should be 2 suiters with short in the lastt suit while 5NT should be at least 2 or 3 in the 3rd suit.

Am i the only one who think bidding 5NT isnt that clear ? With hearts like 87632 you are favorite to have a H loser. After that I see 3 potential danger, 1- A D loser, 2- a 4-1 H break 3- partner made an agressive X with a club void. IDK what i would have done IRL but for me 5NT isnt automatic. Very interesting hand.

If the X is penalty what I suggest is pass = to play or (4333), opener will XX only with a 5 card suit, responder with pts will pass and with a 4333 he will bid 2C. 2M with a 5-3 fit is better than 1Nt but since responder is flat and the defense know it its a small plus not a great plus. XX = 2 suiters, if you get X again, XX = lowest suit is better. Bid = highest suit is better EX... 2C get X , with 4D+5M or 4H+5S bid 2D/2H with 5D+4M or 5H+4S XX again this will maximize your chance to rightside the contract. 2 anything to play, the transfers are only 2nt and higher. When 4th seat X, opener should XX with a doubleton hearts without 5C (instead of XX with a maximum) and bid 2C with 5+ clubs. When responder got a singlesuiter bidding it directly is less vulnerable to get punished than after a transfers or XX single suiters a la Dont. 1NT-(X)-XX-(??) if the XX is a singlesuiter opps should play that pass show some pts, with 0-2 they should bid something. So later when you run with the single suiter the initial doubler can double again more agressively (whatever if they play takeout or penalties) knowing advancer is not broke. If you XX with the 2 suiters its the same thing but the difference is its better to face penalties double with a 2/3 suiters than with a single suiter since you can use the XX to scramble into better contracts, either rightside them or to show wich of your two suits is better. When they double a singlesuiter you have no upside with the XX. Also many 2 suiters can often play in the 3rd suit. 5431,4432 you may have a fit with your 3 card suit. So XX with those hand is a better start anyway than 2 in your lowest suit a la Dont. Playing weak nt ive tested this method vs 2 other methods, one was suction and one where pass was forcing and it clearly smoked them after about 150 hands. After a strong nt rightsiding and getting a plus score will become more important while playing a weak nt your goal is more to make it harder for them to punish you so its possible a suction scheme might get the upper hand after a strong NT. My view is that we should just really really do a sim for those things ...my guess is after only 150 hands there will be only one to 3 methods that will still be acceptable the others methods will be in the garbage and another 100 hands the winner should be clear enough. I dont believe its a situation where many methods are equivalents (after a penalty X not a conv X)

I wasnt clear I had no intention of putting the Qd but I dont see how ducking with the AD can be right. By winning the first D i tought i could make it even if lho got Qxx of H but I was wrong there sicne they kick the ace of club entry (but they could get it wrong). After you win with ace of D there is nothing that can go wrong, if the Qh is offside they still get the extra undertrick nothing you can do about it.

[hv=pc=n&s=saqj76ha6dkq3cj95&n=sk4h95dj86caqt742]133|200[/hv] Imps, without taking inference from the bidding. Your in 5C you get a KH lead. How do you play the hand ? A- 3 round of spades discarding the H specify if you plan to finesse in clubs if you get ruffed on the 3rd S. B- cash ace of clubs and if the K doesnt fall play 3 round of S.