dave_w

I agree with Justin to some extent. But I think it's just miss guided. ATB is the wrong question. A "what is your FP agreements?" here and we have an expert discussion forum question. Although the answer to that question is surely "my standard FP agreements - ie pass/double inversion or 'standard'". A question does arise as to whether pass and pull should be doubt about strain vs a slam try. And what does a double of a contract that the opponents can't play in mean when we are in a FP as opposed to pass (or bidding?). There are some interesting questions here. Unfortunately the answer to most of them is "whatever you and partner have discussed". And if you haven't discussed your FP agreements in this much detail - well now is your chance. ATB: 50/50. Discuss your FP agreements.

It's a good thing that East doubled the 3NT bid - otherwise West wouldn't have known that he had an opening bid - maybe East had psyched first chair unfavourable. And then they definitely aren't making 4♦ it's best that I double that with 2 small, so as not to give away the trump position when it goes round to partner and he doubles.

lol. I didn't notice that someone bumped a really old thread. I don't expect I'll agree with everything I've written 7 years from now.

QJxxx KQxx Kx Qx - You are right, North's opening bid covers the other 2 losers - unfortunately he doesn't have enough controls to make slam good. What's the difference between South bidding: 1) 4♦ 2) 2NT then pulling 3NT to 4♣ 3) 2NT then pulling 3NT to 4♦ Addressing these in reverse order, I think auction (3) says non-solid diamonds without a club control, (2) says non-solid diamonds with a club control and therefore auction (1) is solid diamonds. It's up to your partnership to define what you mean by "solid" in these types of auctions. Is it 0 or 1 loser opposite xx or x - that's 4 possible definitions. I like 1 loser opposite small singleton. So South could have bid 4♦ at their second turn (2NT is okay too to find a possible 6-2 Spade fit) but then South should continue with 4♣ rather than 4♦.

Are you sure that the bridge ability of Bob Hamman/Jeff Meckstroth isn't more than other top experts who seem to be as good but who haven't won as much? I think there is a reason a lot of the top young bridge players have played poker (and played it very well). Poker is a game where there is immense randomness on each hand. But the important thing is to keep doing +EV things on every hand - regardless of the outcome on previous hands. Only working out what is positive EV and what is losing money is very difficult because of the noise (the random results of each hand of poker). I don't think bridge is that much different. It's very hard to evaluate what the best lead is on a hand (when on the actual deal the contract is cold ... this time ...) or which bids are winning or losing imps in the long term. So, on all the boards that Hamman plays where his play is different from the other table perhaps he's making the right long term play - even if it loses on this layout. How can you really be sure? What kind of edge do you think it's possible that Hamman and Meckstroth have over other top experts? maybe 0.1-0.2 imp per board? That's only about 6-12 imps per match in the Spingold or Vandy, and the variance is going to be higher than that. But because of that edge they are going to end up winning a lot more often than others over long careers. And that sort of an edge is so small (a few overtricks, a game contract every 5 matches a partscore battle every 2 matches or so). It really would be hard to say "they aren't that much better, maybe it's something else". But maybe they just do play better than the other experts and that's why they win. It's just the edge is so small that it's very hard to notice it amongst all the noise. Moral of the story: just play better than everyone else - EVERY TRICK of EVERY HAND.

Your play is wrong for two reasons: Firstly, it's not obvious that declarer has the ♣A. If declarer has two small Clubs then why would he play on Clubs? There's no entry. Secondly, if declarer does have the ♣A then there's no hurry to play the ♥K - we can do it ourselves after winning our second Spade trick. The only thing that can be critical to switch to now is a Club to kill an entry to the long Spade when declarer has two Clubs without the Ace.

I don't lead a Spade at all. I lead a Diamond. Anyway, I suppose dropping the wrong card on the table at trick one hasn't worked out too badly. I'm going to win this trick obviously - and I'd love to know if partner follows suit. If he does then I think we should switch to a count club card. Partner will know it's count if he's looking at the Ace, otherwise this contract looks hard to beat as declarer has 5 Clubs a Spade. We'll need partner to have AQJxx Heart and the Ace of Diamonds (not impossible) and for him to signal clearly what we should do when we win the next Spade.

Continuing on the thread hijack - this could be interesting. And I'm sure that there's plenty of programmers who would be interesting. I'm not sure what the rights to the files are like. Are they considered public domain or the property of bbo? If you put it up on github you might find that someone else helps you out with a pretty interface!

I think that's a large improvement on my line :-)

All your problems on this auction are solved. 2♦ is lebensohl and 2♥ is forced on minimum hands. Of course when you have diamonds things are trickier but that's another issue!

I think one should test Hearts before playing on trumps. After ♥AK, no Queen has dropped you'll have to bring in the trumps. If South drops the Queen then cash the ♠K and then ♠A (if the ♠T falls then run the Jack to retain control). If North drops the ♥Q then ♠A, finesse the ♠9 (to retain control in case trumps are 4-1). If the Heart Queen hasn't dropped then I take the Spade finesse. Cash the Clubs (pitching a Heart) and then exit in Hearts and play for split Diamond honours. This line seems to work when: ♥Q is doubleton OR ♠Q is onside and Diamond honours are split (minus some for when Hearts are 5-1 and a Heart honour got ruffed).

Obviously I should wait for jlall's answer to any post before making a fool of myself as well. I've never had exclusion psyched against me - I'm glad that it's first happen in the bbo forums where the -17 imps are imaginary.

I'm not sure. In fact now that you mention it I'm almost certain the Spade honours are split. Does one even need to know the auction or the rest of one's hand if looking at KQxx in Spades to know what to lead against a 6 level contract. Okay, checking the auction is allowed in case the 6 level contract is Spades. But on this auction a Spade lead must stand out if opening leader has the KQ. I don't think I can do it against best defence. LHO has to cover the first Spade and RHO has to switch to Clubs and all my entries are gone for a squeeze. Unless the squeeze can operate before I lose the Spade trick but I don't think that's true (I can't see any way to cash the ♥K given I need it for an entry to dummy and besides RHO can beat me by keeping a Spade honour and a long Heart then. Still I guess that adds value to running the ♠9 early. Less likely to be covered and less likely to know what's going on at that point.

We will need declarer to be something like Qxxxx - Kxxx KQxx. Declarer has one Diamond trick, 5 Spades, 1 Diamond ruff and 3 Clubs (declarer can swap tricks by ruffing a 2nd Diamond but promoting a trump trick). I think if declarer miss plays the hand we can tap him off (Declarer has to play ♠AK and a Club and he's home, but if he trys to ruff another Diamond (ie doesn't cash the top Spades) then he might go down (win the club, force declarer who now can't draw trumps because they are blocked and will end up a trick short). I suspect it's cold but I discard a Heart. If declarer plays a Club, I'll win and force him.

I win the ♥A to retain a dummy entry and cash the ♦A (standard safety play even without the takeout double). And then lead a Diamond to hand. And play the ♠9. If LHO is 3415 I think I need to sneak the ♠9 past him in order to make. And if he covers I need a re-entry to hand which can only be in trumps. So he splits, I win and play trumps coming down to ♠Jxx ♥K ♣x opposite ♠T ♥x ♣AJx. If LHO was 4414 then LHO must have 3 spades (otherwise I can lead the spade ten and establish the long spade - if he ducks I can cross in Hearts and end play him) and thus has Kx of Clubs left. So I play the ♠Ten, he wins and returns a Spade and I cash the Heart to Squeeze him or he ducks and I cross in Hearts which strip-squeezes him. If LHO was 3415 then: LHO must have 2 spades left (otherwise the spade lead will endplay him) and RHO must have 3 spades left. I play a spade LHO wins and plays a spade and I cash the Heart and I go one down. I just can't make if they are 3415 - unless RHO gets the defence wrong (no Major suit squeeze since he sits over dummy). Oh no Club pitch on the Diamonds. They would have found that for sure from 5 (what can it cost) so they must be 4414 (ugh don't tell me 5413 is possible - I might not get the count in time) If LHO was 5413 then: They must have 3 spades left (having pitched one) and I'll play to establish spades by leading the ♠Ten and they duck and I cross in Hearts to end play them and they pitch a spade and I throw them in. But if they are 5413 and can see it coming then they can keep 4 spades in the ending (having already bared the ♣K) and I'll play this way and exit a spade to endplay them and RHO will show out and LHO will laugh at me. Good defence - I can't see any way to get the count. Hmmmmz, if you spent half an hour then I guess I've missed something (trumps 4-0 isn't a problem on my line since I crossed in Spades once anyway).

trump. And then another when partner wins their Ace. I can't really blow a trick leading singleton Queen. Declarer can take restricted choice (though might cash the wrong honour). Or they might play for me to have not led a singleton trump Queen and play for me to have QJ tight.

A few expert pairs play weak NT defence to a 3rd seat strong NT. Very important if they are nv vs Vul (or possibly even just nil vul).

Duck the opening lead, (they continue), so I win. Maybe I know if Clubs are 4-4 or not by now? There looks to be two lines: knock out the ♠A and then take the Diamond hook and make 11 tricks 18% of the time, 10 tricks some of the time (if, for example the opponents win the first Spade and Diamonds are 3-3 with the Queen offside), and I don't think I'll make 9 tricks very often at all - I'll probably go down if it doesn't work. Alternatively, one can play on Hearts rather than Diamonds. cross to dummy with the ♦A and run the ♥9, then cross in Spades to run the ♥J. For 9 it needs either clubs 4-4 with at least one Heart honour onside or clubs 5-3 with at least one Heart honour onside and the ♠A with East (or possibly both Heart honours with East and the ♠A with West if you pick it) Since no-one will cover the 9 without both Honours I think if an honour appears then I'd knock out the Spade Ace next. I like the second line better. Less overtricks - but it's such a small percentage of the time that I'll live with it.

If I had the ♦K then I'd lead a Diamond for sure. But with this holding I'm not so sure. Perhaps my Ace will be useful as an entry to help partner set up his suit. Leading the ♥8 needs a lot (hearts 5-3-3-2, probably not triple stopped, and one hold up might be enough since that will stop us from play any more). Okay, I'll lead a Diamond (a low one).

Probably it's best to take the finesse. I'd hate to take less tricks than everyone else because I got given a trick on the lead :( Also, if this is a weak sectional field perhaps the discussion belongs elsewhere. Against experts the discards aren't going to tell you a lot (although they would signal some information in order to break up a pseudo squeeze). I run 6 rounds of clubs then take the Heart hook unless something unusual has happened.

You should run the first diamond to hand. A lead from Jxxx is more likely than a singleton! And you can always overtake the ♦Q if they break 3-2. Win the first diamond and play a Heart to the Ten: wins with the singleton Ace onside or any Jack onside: a little bit above 50% Win the first diamond and play a Heart to the King (the duck is so obvious that this should win the trick): Now you virtually need clubs 3-3. No squeeze works without the count here + JT doubleton (the entry position works as long as diamonds are 3-2 also). About 38%. Also wins with AJ doubleton on either side (they have to win the Ace from this holding) or Jack singleton offside (about 2% all up) taking us to 40% Win the first diamond and cash 3 clubs, then take the Heart hook if it doesn't work (clubs 3-3 36%, Clubs 4-2 with ♥A in the short club hand 26.6% (but only half these - so 13%) looks like about 49% to me. Yikes really close! I'm not sure if there are any squeezes on West without the count. ie cash the ♠Ace and 5 rounds of Diamonds and discarding 2 Hearts. But West won't come under pressure until you cash the SK (they've had to release all their spades by this point if they are getting squeezed). But that's too big of a position to take HA onside plus 4 clubs with West (ie you can make it on that lay out by running all your winners - but it's the only lay out).

I like the auction except West's 4♥ bid and South's 5♦ bid. Was 3NT conventional? If you play that 3NT is a save suggestion (ie opposite a pure preempt let's bid 5♦) then that's a great bid. Especially good as a passed hand which can't really need 3NT as natural. Also, I'm guessing that this is when you have the most variety in preempts. This would mean South gets to suggest the save in 5♦ (as opposed to a simple raise to 4♦ which is just space consuming. And this North hand decides not to save. South should respect the decision.

Sometimes I should think about why plays are better rather than just memorising it from the encyclopaedia. Then my analysis would be better. Running the 9 is better than running the Jack because you get 4 tricks when RHO has singleton Queen (although against players who would falsecard from QT doubleton you should try and drop then Ten anyway - QT doubleton is more likely than Q singleton). So this is a fractionally better chance, and might not even be relevant if they can falsecard. Running the 9 is also superior to cashing the King and low to the Jack because you get to change Tack when RHO is void when playing the 9 towards the King. But after cashing the King there is no recovery. Again a fractionally superior play (which is irrelevant to the bridge problem). Also I just remember the play of H9 opposite HJxx where you have to lead small to the 9 first or you don't get to use it. And this combination is (almost) equivalent. So, I think that running the Jack is better than the 9 (retains chances for 13 on a simple squeeze when RHO has Txxx). And then it comes down to vacant spaces - but I'm not sure what the story is. Of course West has more hearts than East. But then that's because they got to choose which suit to lead! East would have led a different suit where they have more cards than West and we'd finesse the opposite way. You have to be careful when using vacant spaces on information that the opponent's give you (as opposed to playing suits and discovering it for yourself). Also, perhaps the lead was from QJT or QJx and RHO has more Hearts than LHO (now it's very likely that RHO is longer in Diamonds). All this leads me to the best play is to finesse the Diamond Jack early in the play and then hope to squeeze LHO. I'm not sure which way to take the Diamond finesse anymore. I was probably right when I said I'd hate not to take 13 tricks with QTx onside. Which means I should have gone for the simple line. That's my normal mistake. Anyway, hopefully that answers gnasher's query as to the best abstract play in that suit combination.

13 Tricks with the ♦QTx onside. I'd hate to make less when that's the case. And also a spade switch would dissuade me from taking ANY finesses in diamonds. So I'll win trick 1. Okay - we are ahead of the non-spade leaders (we can afford to mess around in Diamonds), I'm going to make the percentage play for 3 tricks which gives up on the chance for 4. I'll cross to the club ten and run the ♦9. Needs the Ten onside or the Queen coming down in three rounds for 12 tricks. Running 6 rounds of clubs could put a lot of pressure on the opponents, but I can't have a 4 card Major and they can see the Diamond threat. I don't think there's too much they can do wrong. But it's always a good tactic.

How do you play this sequence as GF? Did you notice that responder has passed in 2nd seat. They can't make a GF, in fact 2♥ is NF in much the same way as 1♥ is NF and ANYTHING a PH bids is NF (except I suppose a splinter) Of course a subsequent 2♥ bid is NF. Did you also miss that the responder is a passed hand? I wonder if anyone's vote would change if they'd looked at the auction and seen that they are a passed hand. It's easy to know this at the table .... but when given a problem you have to look at the auction to know what you've already bid (I'm a 1♥ bidder regardless).