thepossum

Agree about tldr Here's another link of the trials and status that WHO knows about. There seem to be others. Do we really need this many https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines

I disagree. As far as I can see I represented exactly how they make money. My perspective on the level to which people understand risk is a commentary There is a cost associated with trading. If a platform does not charge you they are making money from you some other way. Its simple and obvious In fact the costs of the transactions were the biggest impediment or cost against my profits when I used to trade. I should have used a zero cost platform :)

I disagree. As far as I can see I represented exactly how they make money. My perspective on the level to which people understand risk is a commentary

But sorry, getting back into more conversational mode Are all those funds "bad" in that sense. I remember getting into a quite passionate debate when learning about trading. I was of the more investor trader type looking for value and investing/trading long - I used to think short-trading was somehow unethical. However it was pointed out that when something is overvalued that controlled and disciplined short-selling is necessary to correct markets I'm curious about all these supposed "evil" funds and what they do But given that I stopped trading when intelligent software was starting to dominate trading there was not much chance for small retail traders to trade safely unless you monitor everything very closely or had smart software of your own. Unlikely that your own software could compete though, and relying too much on automation can kill you too. Long time ago. Dont have time resources or capital to burn

I tried to avoid getting dragged into all the media hype over recent days but actually weakened somewhat and started reading a little today (ideally not in the media outlets beating it up for bait and advertising revenue) Thanks for your few posts on the issue too that dont require me to waste my time and contribute to anyone's profits AFAIK One thing that concerns me all ways about this stuff and the seeming attitude among some that the share market only benefits the wealthy, if the big funds are smashed there goes much of ordinary workers and small business wealth too I'm very curious about zero fee platforms allowing people to essentially play without caring about consequences. I wondered how they made their money - seemingly they make money on your credit accounts, they sell your data to bigger players and make margin loans to those who dont understand risk I'm a bit of a gambler and risk taker with very small amounts or with fake money, but all my trading activities had a rather conservative risk approach. I may not be a billionaire but I still have a home to live in and something of a life. You cant have it all all the time. But if I had cash back in March last year I would have done alright going long in a very safe market. From memory when I was starting to get anxious about the plummeting market, I checked my funds and found the managers were increasing exposure to shares at that time. Pays to let people manage stuff who have a clue Of course the most frightening thing for me is firstly there are always extreme risks from time to time nobody forsees or can plan for, you never know for sure when your life is going to be turned upside down. But when those risks to your hard earned savings seem to come from irresponsible and/or downright criminal quarters manipulating markets its gets a bit concerning. I have good reason to believe I was personally targetted many years ago when trading by some malicious unknown trading entity unknown - who knows why. Maybe just something personal. Its not just a case of feeling that way. In my case I received information or evidence that someone was doing it to me, following my trades and selling against me personally. Still dont know who and why. And also from limited knowledge I dont think you have to be a big player to personally attack a target through market manipulation. Depends on the shares of course I know this will be of no interest but I need to say it somewhere. I used to trade quite regularly (always long short-term trades), I even tried different "expert" rules on porfolio management, handling of risk, using some of their buying/selling rules (turned out not to be as good as my own) etc Then as you all know if someone starts going against you personally it becomes a game theoretic exercise. After observing for a while and getting information from several confirmatory sources of what I observed you basically just have to change your game - even withdraw without losing much if any - I still dont know who it was and why. The market should not be a personalised targetted game. Say someone does decide to target you maliciously, works out your strategy, your rules etc. If they are too predictable as they were once they can use your rules against you. Pays to be flexible and unpredictable. I never used rules again, certainly not that "expert"'s rules. They were all about avoiding profits and losing anything you made - crazy rules :)

Certainly no expert on the situation but having spent some time there during the Clinton presidency and followed US politics closely for a long time, it doesn't usually take long for Democrats to get upset/disillusioned with/feel let down by Democrat administrations. I cant remember the earlier ones than that, I was too young However on the plus side for me, and maybe something of a conservative view (from a very radical non conservative person) I kind of like the way democratic processes and institutions usually keep extremes under control. I'm curious to see how all the houses being aligned works out. I don't think I observed that often.

I don't know whether its good or bad news, what the implications are and how long any supposed freedom will be protected but yes its good news that whole platforms cannot just be silenced by a US Democrat/China tech-cartel. But then again given that our internet routes of all kinds are controlled by a couple of powerful global entities who knows whether I could access it even if I wanted to. Its rather sad when a supposed bastion of freedom reduces their trust to the level of China but I guess the eiltes in control of our world don't need to worry any more Come to think of it for a while I have been quite convinced that everything I read or access is coming through some dodgy route, and all my OS, my applications, everything coming through the same routes and the same controls and possible manipulation of what I see

I think I may have made this quip about the thread's sub-title last year but when talking about ignoring history I think it wasn't the pandemic history that people ignored. Sadly it is now bein repeated and possibly irreversible. Everyone allowed the pandemic to take over absolutely everything and we are headed for total control of the planet, maybe forever. However people have been believing what they are fed from all sources for so long now etc

I'm a more beginner type person and I thought 2C-2D-2NT-3NT-4NT?? etc Tested in Q-Plus 2/1 2C-2D-2S-4S-4NT-5C-6S Acol 2C-2D-2S-3S-4NT-5C-6S

I'm a bit over the way Trump and all associated debate one way or the other has sucked so much oxygen out of the whole world for 5 years and counting I cant even go to a social even or have a conversation with many important people in my life without a tedious obsession with Trump which misses the bigger picture on everything :) PS I hope you are happy to hear that after an hour's reasonably hard weights session (first time in a few weeks) I have gone from a state of high anxiety, relative lack of breath and feeling like **** to actually feeling good and being able to breathe properly :)

Not wishing to stray too far into your area of expertise and with apologies if I do, I feel the links and feedbacks between the false (largely) dichotomy of mental/psychological illness or disorders and the physical still does not get the attention it deserves. At the personal level I have experienced many aspects of the psychological stressors, depressors, physical consequences and/or causes, impacts of medications. However the link between what happens in someone's life ad the speed with which it can affect you physically in my view goes beyond a nice simple physical explanation to allowing the concept of "losing the will to live" or "dying from stress/misery/lack of hope", "lack of company, loneliness, lack of society" etc In fact regarding links between the physical and the psychological 2020 and 2021 so far has had devastating impacts on me physically and psychologically and despite some ignoramuses in this world saying that we dont need gyms I'm heading to my gym with my mask for some much needed exercise and peace and time to think On an area I feel safer talking about there are very interesting studies in the different components of therapies and how they are regarded as contributing to or explaining improvements in pscyhological well-being. What is fascinating with all the interest in and importance on evidence based approaches is how little unique variance can be explained by any single therapy most of the time, and how much relates to common factors of nearly all therapies and the psychological equivalent of the placebo effect, simply acting or seeking some sort of assistance and the expectation of improvement. Apologies for garbling my memory of various studies; I'm too tired to look for them. Also without wanting to sound too unprofessional the reason there is considerable evidence for some particular types of therapies is that they are easily manualised and studied, when most arent

Hi Ken Thanks for your response. I partially addressed in other comments above but will try to respond without getting into details over President Trump and the incident at the Capitol I am more interested in the extent of the sanctions against one individual (albeit a very powerful one) and many of his political support base - I believe you still have a democracy, law, due process etc. Time will tell I guess I cannot or do not really want to address these comments. However I for one have not seen the offending social media incitement which has led to such huge sanctions against so many. I also do not want to/cannot address actions of extreme elements of any political/other movement. I agree with you on the legal side and whoever is responsible for criminal activity. That is not what I see going on though I'm interested in the broader issues and implications for much of the world, personally and corporately. With relation to social media I am concerned about the pressures on social media and other corporate entities to use their rules to silence individuals across the board. The big-techs, no matter how much they claim to be individual private/public listed companies are essentially an oligopoly with huge power over the lives of many of us in the world. An across the board deplatforming of any individual and seemingly many of his political supporters, and even denial of access to platforms for whole internet communities etc goes way beyond any reasonable sanction and due process in any legal or political sense. EDIT More to come. This issue is immense. And its hard enough responding to so many comments and responding quickly. And I'm actually trying to watch a 4 hour senate hearing about some of those issues faced by the social media companies. Its a huge issue and many like to undermine any attempt at raising concerns. Not you Ken, others However after watching some of the Senate hearing and questions to Mr Dorsey and Mr Zuckerberg in relation to social media companies' actions to moderate their platforms it strikes me as a very one sided issue. And from my many years of involvement in social media socially and politically, and what I have observed over recent years there is more than enough provocative content, misinformation, and cruel content from elements of the left/Democrat/scientific/academic side as there is from the MAGAs etc Sadly they have all the power to protect them and attack the other side I am also concerned at the tendency of many on that so-called progressive side to jump on people and misrepresent all the time. Its is regular tactic to try and undermine anything. However as someone who is outside the great powerful insitituions of government/academe etc, but with considerable knowledge on many issues, and also someone who has been very political my whole life; what I have observed on social media over recent years is concerning in the way certain political interests gang up on, silence anyone they dislike and in the end dominate whole platforms. And that de-platforming appears to be happening at all levels of platforms 9without wanting to get into too much detail of different players). Also who has the powers between government and corporations is an ongoing debate that many do not seem to understand. I am very concerned seeing the political pressure from one side against platforms to act (not just against crime) but against political opponents and others etc. I have seen extensive misinformation and misrepresentation and abuse of social media by many on all sides of politics, including those who claim the high ground Here is the link to the hearings for those who have 4 hours to spare and havent watched it Senate Hearing on Social Media Moderation

Herein lies a large part of the problem and a failure to understand what is really going on and its implications for the world. I actually see massive overreach, and also a failure of due process everywhere. I also see some powerful corporations grappling with difficult issues under immense one-sided political pressure over content on their platforms I dont want to/cant comment on any individual issues or issues related to the Capitol protest/invasion/riot/case etc However I have seen what appears to be overreach against President Trump in various areas of his personal and business life under what are still just allegations, and seriously politically charged. I have also seen the other "mob" going after, not just the extreme element, but anyone vaguely associated with the Trump support base in ways that are rather alarming. I see two mobs, and one with immense power in so many intitutions which is able to keep its hands clean while involved in its ongoing mob activities. I would like to keep the disucssion to the implications for the rest of us in the world, and not the specifics of President trump, The Capitol etc. Otherwise we will never get anywhere and my point can be undermined by having to address all those details

Hi Barrie. I will skip this comment and the use of you're and you since it does not apply to me. I have no association with republicans at all, but from what I have seen recently I am happy I never had to make a choice between Democrats or Republicans at an election. What frightens me these days is that simply standing up for freedoms, liberties and justice and what I believe is right (as someone from what I still regard as the left), so many who claim left or even social democrat tendencies these days have forgotten what it means. Their hypocrisy is legendary too and in my view puts that of the Republicans to shame. But I am not involved in US politics. I am concerned about implications of what is going on for the whole world and our personal and business freedoms, trust, and safety I will add though that there is a huge amount of bullshit propagated for years from those claiming some environmental and scientific backing for their misinformation on social media. Many of them are putting profits and self-interested technology development ahead of the environment too. And they have had the Democrats, much of the Academe and many other powerful interests to back them up. I have observed serious misinformation from all sides of politics for years

Totally non expert view I did a small analysis of weak 2s and often assume 7 losers and 5 tricks on average (using 2,3,4 trick preempts with a partner that makes no adjustments) So I look at tricks and losers etc., If I have a trump fit etc. Then decide if it's worth raising (looks like game or invite) or should be passed. I look at points more in other situations EDIT Clarification. I know opener is not supposed to rebid except with a a positive response so I bear that in mind and figure my bid is what we hope for. If partner has a good weak two I have no problems with them bidding to game. But usually I would bid to game, pass or 2nT positive I always like 2-4-6 auctions. You reckon we can make 2, in that case we can make 4, well in that case we can make 6 Similar philosophy for 3 opening bids. In that case 7 losers and 6 tricks etc PS My first ref for 234 was Pavlicek I believe. Not sure

Totally non expert view I did a small analysis of weak 2s and often assume 7 losers and 5 tricks on average (using 2,3,4 trick preempts with a partner that makes no adjustments) So I look at tricks and losers etc

Thx Pilowsky. I'm just concerned about the nature of the schools and how the rankings have become distorted in some way by tech of all kinds. And there seems to ver much a quantity beats quality gig going down. I've observed that in person through my career and life, but its also borne out by the state of the world I'm not at all being disresepctful of tech at the top level. Just rather concerned that everyone is mining distributions of quality to death and there is less and less left (if any). Its out of control PS I forgot mass debt too funding it all

I like to check each year to see how my Almas Maters (sorry if that's incorrect, I didn't study classics) are going since I left. I mean seriously is it almas mater, alma mater, almas maters, and should it be capitalised? I'm not sure what is going on but there are not many left at the top of the University. It's dominated by tech colleges I know I'm old school but Universities used to (have to) cover every discipline of knowledge in reasonable breadth and depth. As far as I can see even a few Universities have gone tech to try to stay in the list. I checked one of their web sites to see and it was all tech. You look high and low for interesting research in all the non-tech areas. But can you find anything that doesn't involve an app, or an algorithm, or a piece of equipment? Very hard these days. It used to be that knowledge and thinking only required one piece of equipment and another fairly simple way of passing it on. Note. I'm not dissing whats involved in language, speech, communication and writing (of all kinds), but hope you get my drift. That to me is a Problem I'm imagining it's just a failure of, or manipulation, of some second-rate algorithm somewhere. After all, the natural order of things shouldn't really change. It's clearly a bad model, or been badly truth tested EDIT Apologies for any grammar or spelling errors. I need to keep checking, and have become so dependent on spell/grammar checkers you get a bit lazy. And I'm struggling with some useless keyboard and tablet which cost me a mint. And as far as I can see one of the software companies that I used to rely on (and trust) seem to have removed or hidden the spelling/grammar checker from the software suite I've paid for since it came out. And also for some weird reason those functions are not available by default in web site edit boxes. Oh and did I mention, not many things seem to work as reliably as they used to, our economies have been squeezed to death by a few tech giants leaving all the workers (and small skilled businesses, if they are prepared to sell their soul and offer services for peanuts against inferior giants) competing over a few scraps through a platform that takes all their money (and is brutally controlling and punitive), and you can't get onto a human being for support and assistance on anything - you get directed to a webite and chat bot that seems incapable of anything much. You end up being the person to do the support, testing and advice yourself etc., and try to advise people against all the incorrect, and 2nd or 3rd rate "correct" advice that passes for support these days. Meanwhile quality gets squeezed, everyone with tech shares have big grins and the Univerisites are being squeezed they have to sell their souls to tech too.

I'm curious about the extent of the sanction against President Trump and his family and assets and freedom of speech. To me, I am not Trump supporter or MAGA in any way at all, but it seems mass overreach of both corporate and various government organisations in a corrdinated attack against one eneity (albeit a powerful one), with huge ramifications for the whole world. We are all subject in some way to what happens in the USA over this Trump issue and other related issues. Is it all phony or what. It seems both maniuplative and dangerous in many ways. Why should we even have to doubt our future, the futuure of our own lives, businesses and freedoms. I dont think we should have to, but I am

Sorry about the delay responding. The responses were lost in the ongoing Trump saga. But there was big news today and I finally managed to find my question and some replies Thanks for the information John and relaying it without being obnoxious Wish I could ever say the same for you Cherdano. Kindly never be obnoxious in any response to me again and learn to be respectful Thanks for the information. I read it a few times to see if I was being oversenitive and imagining the offensive tone and to whom it was directed, me or the ridiculousness and complexity of the issue. sadly I felt it directed at me. But seriously, who has that much time to try and get to the bottom of detailed congressional and Whitehouse shenanigans and its possible massive impact on the whole world Worth checking out Jack's (sorry Mr Dorsey's) thread on Twitter today Jack's thread Seems our tech overlords are planning the future of our planet. WOndering if we have any say in it at all anymore Sadly it seems that Greater Silicon valley (for want of a better term) are trying to control our whole world for quite some time and now they may even have the political backing in Washington, and elsewhere, to assert that control. I have suspected it for a long time that the seeming wonderful excitement and progressiveness of much of the old hippie West coast techs and their wonderful philosophy was just a big con. Seems tanatamount to fascism from what I can see these days I'm starting to be a bit over what seems to me (not just this one issue) but countless massive issues and debates being raised all over the world, but especially in the USA - followed by internationally - in a rather phony and manipulative way. The whole corporate-government role and responsibility is certainly being played out in a big way globally and to me at least its rather fake and manipulative and dangerous the way it is happening. There are just so many overlapping issues of platforms, media etc and the (at leat to me) way they have been used to the extreme over recent years to manipulate and polarise us on so many issues. But the issues faced by the world and the growth in control and overcentralisation of certain levels of control within a relatively few corporations has also led to seeming break down in the ability to actually find quality accurate information in a short time frame and not have to waste our time looking through endless low quality sites and conversations. Thats why I like to ask aroound in different forums, and kind of don't like the attitude of - you could have read it in the media But I am seriously concerned at the overcentralisation of this power that to me actually challenges Jack Dorsey's model or ideas for a model of social media (and cryptocurrency). I believe it has fallen down on the whole gig-economy, the way platforms are working etc. To me there is an illusion of decentralisation while in fact massively centralising power in a few oligarchs. That power (in many different forms - capital, voice etc) has been sucked out of much of the world by a few huge entities (or at least one or two locales and groups of entities). I know that much of that capital is in the form of shares distributed around some subsets of the world. But its a bit like Bitcoin really. A few people have a lot of it. And the rest of those who use it have a few nanocoins and about that much power over what the entity does Hope nobody thinks this is all irrelevant since it has been provoked like a lot of other stuff over the last 4-5 years.

Well, some of us do, and many of us not fondly in any way at all. Seemingly now the whole world is run by the kind of high school teacher's who used to threaten and bully a whole class over one individual's naughtiness For some of us with very anxious dispositions we even started to feel responsible and guilty ourselves, and crazily even felt pressure to admit to something we hadn't actually done However, even for people like me we maintained solidarity it builds that if nothing else However I find it a seriously distasetful and dangerous approach to get a whole group feeling angry at one individual/small group target who may or may not all be as bad as made out, and may not all actually be responsible for what the libellous and slanderous media/others would have us believe Case in point. Punishing a whole community/city/state over the actions of a few anti-social people, or maybe even people with no power over their lives or actions, and easy to blame. You know where that ends But maybe its just a cultural thing passed on for countless generations and through certain cultures. Oh I was bullied, its ok for me to bully etc Then again, before any old high school teachers get upset, by far the worst cruelty and brutality was inflicted on first grade at primary school. And I am not joking. But how it affected the victims depends on their age, their anxiety, their self-consiousness etc. The effect on some is lifelong whenever it happens. Sad to see the world is not progressing much You actually get the feeling nobody learned much through the wars on terror and the impacts of collective punishments. Sometimes you feel its almost deliberately provoked by some. Who knows who is behind the need for conlfict. There are many on both sides of anything I imagine. Look through history. There are also some who actually have it as a philosophy

Snap :)

I stopped using KR. I cant do it quickly in my head so its useless to me :) I spent a while trying to compare my assessment of hands using simpler methods with KR. I even tried learning it to see if I could work it out in my head etc :) When I say simpler sometimes I don't even care about how many points :) But as an aside, revisiting this thread after a while, it never ceases to amaze me how much of the discussion involves other meanings of 3NT other than one your partner bid :)

Indeed, Happy New Year. But its been crazy so far

Sorry I'm only prepared to explain to those with the capacity or disinterest or objectivity to have observed it themselves Actually and those who dont start with an obnoxious patronising and sarcastic attack in attempt to put down But if you insist I will write something up and post it But I actually think you know full well and are attacking a rhetorical post in an attempt to undermine. I realise my sentences may run the risk of disrespect. As would anything else I posted Dangerous times for speaking freely But I do always try to speak respectfully unless I feel I have been disrespected first. So for everyones elses benefit. If you ever want to engage me a conversation and ask for clarification kindly ask in a respectful way. I've had enough of obnoxiousness from all the elites over recent years. And despite maybe not havng all the letters many of you have I can more than hold my own against all of you and deserve respect in the same way. Some of you need to learn that But I do think your post, its tone and how any reponse or explanation was dealt with are a good example of the very problem I think the world faces I will answer your question with another question. How many times have the Deomcrats controlled all houses and how many times did the privileged elites in real power actually do anything for the less powerful around the world. But they rely on lies to the less privileged and the votes of the less privileged. But its always the same class that rules despite any attempts and abuses they make of identity politics The Deomcrats use all manner of abuses of privilege discourse and identity to preserve the power bases of the elite classes. If nobody can see that they must be from another planet But as I said I am used the disrespect and attitudes of people on many forums despite my own knowledge and training on issues. That arrogance has been growing and getting more and more dangerous by the day for years now and especially though 2020. Now it will reach a peak danger point as far as I can see. Where is the counterveilling power at all There is far too much of this attitude that just because someone obtained some set of letters that firstly they are all equivalent or of equal merit or that they have any more right to speak on anything But from what I can see all the ingredients of full blown global facsism are falling into place. And some of us despite our own merit have come up against that corrupt use of power and observed it in action on many occasions Maybe I should list a few porblems I see Major forces of control aligned Big government Big media Big tech Big pharma Big data Big academe China Edit sorry nearly forgot big bloated climate - thats been going for 30+ years and has immense and excessive power too. They are ll lined with tech essentially Oops - didnt intentionally leave out big EU When I use the word Big I mean bloated for decades with money and control from the likes of China Then we get a pandemic which coincidentally manages to benefit all those power groups and control anyone who speaks up on any other issue The pandemic also hurts many of thos bloated classes - they start to feel the pain - that is always a big danger You know who suffers. The billions around the world who have been ignored though 2020 whose children are dying or suffering from countless povert and inequality related issues - not Covid And all those privileged interest groups in their discssions ver major issues never really see past their own privileged interests to what the people starving in the world need. Its all about preserving privilege and inequality. There is never any true discussion of the real causes of issues, the inequalities in energy for example. And of course everything conveniently has a tech solution. Avoid the political inconvenience of every trying to address inequality. The Low Income Countries are being smashed to smithereens. The progress they made may be lost forever Do I need to go on ... but final point and not being melodramatic at all. I do wonder how long before I am totally silenced in various forums for being one of the few to speak out EDIT Something else. Just seeing the cesspool of social media ovetr the last several years. Many of the worst offender in that cesspool were from the elites from the so-called progressive side of politics. One example of their bottom of the pond level attitude is the way they talked about First Lady Melania Trump for the last 5 years. That is the the attitude and group of people that concerns me. They made the mistake of letting themslves out on social media and being so arrogant to think that the obnoxious attitudes and views some of us know they have in private are acceptable out in the world. They aren't acceptable anywhere but what frightened me was the arroagance of them all polluting the Web for years. Any wonder I have concerns. Its bad enough having to bite your tongue and stay silent at social engagements with those obnoxious elites. But not to be able to speak up on social media for fear of being cancelled or silenced etc