ochinko

Would anyone consider 2NT if it shows both minors and a weak hand?

Don't put an 8 cards suit in the dummy. I prefer the other unthinkable course of action - hiding the ♠ fit. 5♣ is perhaps a better bid, but I start with 3♣.

I like to have 2 defensive tricks when I have only 11 HCP and 5 cards suit(s), so #3 is my choice. Playing Precision ♣ one would hardly pass #2 though. BTW, I think that if we end up playing in a red suit #4 promises more than #3 even with an Ace less, but if we end up defending, I prefer to hold #3.

That was easy. Matmat argued it well enough.

This is not not the standard case where the preemptor is not supposed to bid again. Preemptor's hand could be close to opening strength as his partner is a passed hand, something like ♦AQJ10xx and and an Ace aside. It says "Partner, please don't compete further because my length isn't as advertised, and neither is my strength." So in my book this is a penalty double that should almost never be pulled. If OTOH partner wasn't a passed hand then either the double is lunacy or says something too subtle for me.

I agree with you that one should go with the flow but not with the provability of the matters. God (at least the Christian one) is by definition unknowable by a mortal human's mind. Astrology, on the other hand, claims to be able to predict your daily fate depending on the time of your birth. So its predictions could be subjected to statistics and scientifically proved or disproved. I am not at all surprised that AFAIK nobody bothered to do it but it's still doable.

After your partner opens 1♦ in third position opps reach 3NT, and the lead is yours. [hv=d=s&v=e&s=sq874hq654d4cq1084]133|100|Scoring: MP Pass - (Pass) - 1♦ - (1NT) Pass - (3NT) - AP[/hv]

Fwiw, I didn't put much thought into the logic of opps' bidding. Being MP the doubler could have expected that his partner won't pass 2♦ even though it shouldn't be forcing. I am no less interested in your comments than some raw numbers so please continue to submit them.

Sure, nothing was alerted, so standard bids were presumed. The doubler turned out to have 4 spades and 6 diamonds.

After your RHO opened 1♣ as dealer, and you overcalled 1♥ LHO doubled and bid later 2♦. The contract is now 3NT and you are on the lead.[hv=d=e&v=b&s=sa3hj10854dk97ca86]133|100|Scoring: MP (1♣) - 1♥ - (Dbl) - Pass (1NT) - Pass - (2♦ )- Pass (2NT) - Pass - (3NT) - AP[/hv]

As Adam said, Pass is easy after the double. There is nothing to add to the 2♥ bid regarding strength or distribution. 5♥ is unilateral, and I don't see why it would show a weaker hand than Pass unless you have a specific agreement about that. There's an old saying: "When in doubt, treat the bid as natural and forcing". Since the double takes out the force, and my hand is well described, I don't hesitate to pass.

I am willing to take my chances and pass. Opps will need 4 tricks outside of ♠ in order to make, whereas 3NT will likely die out because of bad communications with my hand.

1. 4♦ but I don't mind 3NT if it works. 2. 4♠ I never double with a one-suiter hand. Double and a new suit is used only over suit openings at level 1. Over weak 2's and preempts double implies at least two suits.

Pass implies that I don't know what to do, and I certainly would like to invite partner to a slam. I wouldn't think of passing when I am going to pull partner's double anyway. So I voted for 5♠, but after reading the replies 5♥ looks like a more intelligent bid.

♠J. What are the odds that RHO has ♠Q and ducks in dummy? It may not develop a trick, but at least looks safe.

To return to the original question. Along with what Fred and Adam (awm) have written, you can take a look at these Probabilities. The thing is that the probability of having a particular number of high card points is not evenly spread, but is at its peak at 9-10 HCP, and then gradually diminishes. If you target your invites to the possibility that partner has 17-18 you'll be able to find the proper game in 4% of all cases whereas 14-15 will take you to the right game in 10% of the hands. Of course, those percentages change in absolute value if you know beforehand that partner has at least 11 HCP but the ratio of the possibilities won't change much. So it's safe to say that targeting 14-15 instead of 17-18 HCP gives you about 2.5 times better ROI as it is 2.5 times more likely to be found. :) And yes, it means that you're going to miss some cold games, but the probabilities will be on your side. It's the same as playing for a 3:2 break (68%) versus a simple finesse. You know that you'll be wrong sometimes, you just want to minimize those occurrences.

At IMPs or another vulnerability I would pass but here I am supposed to be allowed a bit of creativity. Double is out of the question as partner could pass it not knowing that he is expected to provide more tricks in defense than me. 4♦ caters to a very specific ♥ holding from partner. This leaves me with 3♠ crossing fingers that partner passes, or opps don't double us, or we go down only one.

2NT invites a NT game. 3♣ isn't a simple suit preference because you could have passed 2♣. It should be a similar invitation to 5♣ or 3NT so it shouldn't be weaker, on the contrary. If you invite with any garbage 9 most of the time you're going to be either down at 3♣ when partner is minimal, or down at 5♣ when his hand is near the top. Of course, there are also good 8's and 9's that deserve an invitation. My 3♣ would promise at least something like Axxx-x-xxx-Axxxx.

I voted for 10, so I wouldn't pass with 10. And I gave an example hand with which I would pass with 9. And it had a fit. What would you bid with it? 3♣ seems pretty normal there. Realistically opener will have 12-14 most of the time. If you want him to accept with good 14, you should have more than 5-6, no? Let's turn the table now. You open with xx-Kx-AQxxx-KQxx. If it goes 1♦-1♠-2♣-2NT do you pass now because you expect as little as 7 points or less?

I voted for 10, so I wouldn't pass with 10. And I gave an example hand with which I would pass with 9. And it had a fit. What would you bid with it?

With 18 I would expect 3♣ instead of 2♣. Most of the time my partner will be closer to 11 than to 17. Wouldn't you open with ♠xx-♥xx-♦AKxxx-♣Axxx?

I voted for 10 because I pass with something like Qxxx-Qxx-Jx-Kjxx. Looks like I am the most conservative for now.

I don't get the passers. Everything in this hand screams for pushing further: RHO is a passed hand, LHO jumps preemptively (and in my shortest suit at that!) Don't we trust opps anymore? Maybe my double let partner know my points, but if would double with 2=2=5=4, 3=1=6=3, or 3=1=5=4 as well, then I have extra distribution unknown to pard. Partner practically denied having 4 spades, meaning that opps have a ♠ fit. If we add it to their almost certain ♥ fit, they turn out to have fits in both majors, so we must have two minor fits. We are vulnerable at IMPs

Ditto. Its usefulness stems from the high frequency of occurring so there's no real competition for the meaning of 2M opening.

I too will always overcall 1♠ with this hand. I don't expect it to be always winning, just more times than not. The same disaster as this one would happen if the overcall was with 9 HCP and 5 spades against which no one would object.