PhilKing

If West never falscarded (ie playing the T from ATx, for instance), declarer could gain a suit combination to which he is not entitled, namely stiff queen offside, since all the other combos balance out if West bovinely follows small. Therefore, West has to occasionally play a such a falsecard to prevent declarer from getting more than his share. As long as he does so with the correct frequency, declarer has to revert to playing the jack, which caters for more holdings a priori. Nash is thus restored.

Well it would seem odds no to bid 5NT in an unlimited auction even for an unreliable player. It would be more likely he would do it with a key card missing. :ph34r: Yes, under 50% if West is VERY good. He will anticipate a random collection in dummy and just try and server the ball into the middle of the court. I've been trawling through a lot of Vanderbilt, Spingold, USBC, Europeans and World Championships, and attacking slams leads are way less common than I previously thought (no quantifiable data yet).

As a general rule, decent players lead aggressively against slams, but there are several caveats here: 1. They are leading round to a 2♣ opener, which makes it less attractive to attack. 2. North has not shown a trick source, so it is less likely they need to attack. 3. They know we are off a key card, so West is playing partner for, specifically, the diamond king and an ace to get in with. Otherwise, the lead is likely to just be spew. 4. If West has the spade queen, the chances of them attacking are lower still - they will try and find partner's ace. Depending on the level of West's expertise, I would be inclined to downgrade the chance he has the ♦Q considerably.

This is the best definition of a reverse I have seen.

Given that West has followed small, the only non-symmetrical case appears to be stiff queen offside, making the king superior. Strange. Presumably, the jack is a counter to a mixed strategy whereby West splits more often with QTx and Q9x than with ATx A9x, although I had no idea the program was that sophisticated before seeing Gwnn's post.

LHO has, for example, QJT9 J QT9x AKxx. If you play on hearts, he ruffs the third round and you have five losers. If you play a third trump, he continues clubs and you are back to square one - you have to play on hearts and he ruffs the third round and you are still two down. By ducking now, he can't force you.

Yes, sure, but given that I no longer play asking bids, unlikely or not, logic dictates that 5♥ followed by 7♦ should show, of all things, hearts and diamonds. If I played asking bids here, I would still bid 5♥, and then bid 7♦ to play if partner shows a heart control and 7♥ otherwise, which is a huge favourite opposite 2+ hearts. So on the actual hand, it is trivial to get to the right grand using cues or asks. I no longer have a clear solution to your ♥Ax hand, but then again, no one solved the first hand correctly even when they had the tools to do so. I would try 5♦ cue and hopefully get a 5♥ cue in response. I need partner to realise that my first bid is a cue OR natural and forcing to avoid strain issues.

You could make the same argument if you played 7NT as showing a pass.

You have to lump in 4135 11 counts and 3145 15 counts along with your weak no trumps, and you lose your take-out double.

I presume I have misread this - you seem to be advocating playing double as a hand that has no reason to bid whatsoever. If you want something that differentiates your 3-card raises after 1C, try this: 1NT - 3-card support in a weak no trump that wants to bid 2D - 3-card support, unbalanced Double - general takeout (obviously now including diamond reverses) Pass - a hand that does not want to bid Having a bid for the unbalanced raise allows partner to compete opposite known club length freely.

What has West followed with? If they have followed with a true 9 or T, then the jack is better.

Playing with a weak client there is a case for passing as dealer.

I would pass at matchpoints and bid 4♥ at IMPs. I think 4♥ will make less that half the time, and 4♦ will usually fail. But I think the dangers of going for a penalty are exaggerated, so I will gamble for the game bonus at teams.

More than a chance. Dummy's clubs get discarded on his red shortage, and you ruff the club. If partner is 8122 or 8212, only a 5-1 or 6-1 break beats you. Two out of three 7321s are OK and even 7123 has play on shape alone, and partner is allowed to have a high card.

On reflection, I think 5♥ then 7♦ over a sign-off should show this. If partner does something other than bid 5♠, that should help as well.

我叫一无将（I bid 1nt）

Tops at IMPs are overrated.

Clear 7♥ bid. There are a lot of ways this can be cold. It's even good opposite KQJxxxxx xx x xx, and needs a trump to beat it when pard is 8113. And there are many other scenarios, few of which we can investigate, that make it a complete spread. Shame on all the 6♥ bidders! I used to play 5♦ asked for a heart control. That works a treat here - when partner bids 5♥ or 6♠, you can bid the obvious 7♦, settling for 7♥ when partner signs off. Anyone for diamonds?

I'm in the mood for a heart.

I don't really see much point in pulling. Although our "D" is low we are not exactly brimming with "O". 5♥ will be no picnic.

Just to make them feel really bad, high-five partner when he tables dummy.

Er, Larry Cohen decided that Dave Berkowitz was a better alternative to Marty Bergen. :ph34r:

♦2.

The way Forrester/Gold play it, they are more likely to find the 4-4 fit if you intervene. If you just pass, they bid 1♥ (various) 1♠ (relay) 1NT (11-13 balanced) and the 4-4 fit only emerges if responder can move. They partly solve it by bidding 1♣-1♦-1♠ on 4-4 and they can bid 1NT over 1♥ to show four hearts, I believe.

Just bid 5♣. The chances of sensibly reaching a making slam are <<<<< than going off in five after tipping off a spade lead. Also, any slow auction increases the chance of them reaching diamonds - we do not know we can even beat SLAM. And I doubt I'll get much support, but 74 shapes should not be opened Three. 4♣-6♣.