SteveMoe

I think I win the ♥A, play small trump to K, then the ♥. Let's see what they will do to help. I think I'm trying for 4♠+1♥+3♦+2♣ or better. Defense will likely return a ♣. Play the Ace and develop diamonds. I'm playing to pitch 2♣ on the 3rd and 4th ♦ tricks while the opponent with long trumps ruffs the 4th. I think that's the only way I can survive 1-4 trumps...

Useful insight! Thanks!

Jump reverse is a splinter, but many of partner's minimums will not let us win 10 tricks (try 3 Qs). Not sure we can stop in 3♠ after the jump reverse as partner would bid that w/extras (fast arrival). On the other hand QJ in the blacks are enough aren't they. Maybe the better strategy is to trot out 2♣, risking partner's pass, but we'd be in trouble at 4♠ when partner would pass 2♣ anyway. Here's how I'd bid after partner's rebids... 2♦ - 3♠ implying short Hearts and about these values. Partner can pass with waste values. 2♥ - 4♥ splintering in the 4th suit...(3♥ is forcing and shows 4 cards). 2♠ - 3.5♠ - yep I really bid 4... 2N - 4♠ partner has 8 losers... 3♣ - 4♠ another 8 loser option. Net I need working cards in a 9 loser hand from partner. Hopefully this approach helps ferret that out.

I agree a ♠ is best. However, I think this is the opportunity to lead the ♠5. Partner knows the spade distribution exactly with dummy in view. He chould be able to decipher I led my lowest card. Then I hope to see a ♣ switch when he wins the ♠Ace...

North only promises 4-3 in the majors, but which way? South has 8 losers. Ugh. Bidding 3♥ allows flexibility so that partner can correct to 3♠ with 4=3 when appropriate. Better, over 3♠ South can now bid 3N giving North a clearer picture...Preempts do work...

Looks like a textbook vulnerable preempt - rule of 3 style. Not sure 6♥ shows the trump Q. Which asset do you think partner wants to know about? Bidding 5♣ first doesn't necessarily shut out the ♥ control... A Trump Q ask will elicit 5♥... so we can tell partner about both...If partner fishes for the grand by bidding 5N or 6 of a minor, 6♥ will be very clear... I might have KJ109xxxx, -, QJx, xx and still open 4♠.

Thanks for the welcome!..and for the time you took to illustrate your reply...I agree with your counting of cases all else equal. In the context of the suit alone your analysis is impeccable. 2 finesses have a 77% chance of yielding 3 tricks. However I thought along different lines (and failed to be clear) - I wanted the best line for 3 ♣ tricks without clearing the ♦Ace. My proposal(Ace then small) assumed that the downside risk of leaving ♦ wide open was high and intolerable. Therefore I dismissed the double finesse approach (we have to give up a 2nd club after a successful 2nd finesse leaving ♦s wide open). So not all 3-club trick cases are equal. Those that preserve the ♦Ace have to be more valuable, no? Granted we pay when ♦ split 5-2 and the defense can cash 4♦s (Certainly 4-3 is more likely) or when defense can get 2♣ and 3♦. As for the singleton honor cases you point out, there are 6 cases, 2 of which an initial Ace captures a singleton honor. So that's a 3% option roughly...doesn't seem to be a percentage play... Thanks for your advice.

Ranking based on LTC, ♣ wastage and In and Out Valuation principles brings me to this view (best to worst): 2 disqualifies (DQ), 9 better 9 worse. 11/12 ratio was 15/3 suggesting another sample... Hand...................HCP.....CNTLs...LTC..NW♣HCP....Net WP 6. AKQ T7xx Ax Axxx.....17......7.......6.......DQ......NA - out of range 9. A9 Qxxx AJxxx Qx.....13......4.......7.......DQ......NA - out of range 1. Qx KQTx A8xx Jx......11......3.......7.......1.......10 11. Xx KJxx KQxx QJx....12......2.......7.......3.......9 15. Q8xx AJxx Ax Txx....11......4.......8.......0.......11 2. A8x Q9xx xx AJ9x.....11......4.......8.......1.......10 5. QJx T7xx Ax Axxx.....11......4.......8.......0.......11 8. T7xx AQxx Axx Qx.....12......4.......8.......2.......10 3. Ax Q8xx KTx Qxxx.....11......3.......8.......2.......9 7. JT8 Q9xx AKxx Jx.....11......3.......8.......1.......10 17. 9xx KQxx Jx AJxx....11......3.......8.......1.......10 Ref:AJx Qxxx xxx Axx.11......4.......9.......0.......11 4. AJx AT9x Tx QTxx.....11......4.......9.......2.......9 12. A9xx AJ9x xx QTx....11......4.......9.......2.......9 18. Jxxx 8xxx Ax AQx....11......4.......8.5.....2.......9 13. Xxx AJxx Txx AKx....12......5.......9.......0.......12 16. QJx KJxx xxx Axx....11......3.......9.......0.......11 10. A9x J9xx JTx KQx....11......3.......9.......3.......8 19. Jxx AKJx 8xxx Qx....11......3.......9.......2.......9 14. T9x AQxx QJx QTx....11......2.......9.......2.......9 20. Xxx QJxx Kxx KQx....11......2.......8.......3.......8 More importantly, partner should expect 8 losers from my hand. I have 9. I will bid 4♥ and hope partner continues if s/he can handle 9 losers opposite. Note that ♠AJx ♥Qxxx ♦Axx ♣xxx is good enough for me to bid 4♠, but barely. At least all my assets are working completely....

Seems like focusing on the bid after the 2N call is leading us to some difficulty. What if instead the default is that 2N shows a stopper in the unbid (4th) suit? Then ♠K2 ♥KJ3 ♦AQJ32 ♣653 rebids 3♦, not 2N. This seems like the least worst call, is consistent with the analogous auction in ♣s (as 2♣ might indeed be very short, allows responder to bid 2♦ on 2=3=44 when right, and gets us out of the issues discerned so far with Opener's 3rd bid. Over 3♦, Opener can raise with ♦Hx as here, and responder can support ♠s with ♠Hx. ♠ in a 5-2 fit might be the most playable game. Would be interesting to see among 13-15 HCP hands likely for responder's bidding, what % do not have a ♣ stopper. While 2=3=5=3 is the worst possible distribution, 2=3=4=4 is possible.

As many have mentioned, 2♠ is sufficient for the first rebid - the ♦ void suggests going slow. We have aa potential misfit. I woudl rebid ♠ twice and expect to have partner raise me to game with a singleton honor. A 4♠ jump rebid after partner's 2♦ would show a hand something like ♠AKJ8543 ♥3 ♦K32 ♣94 - a self-sufficient but not running suit that can play well opposite a singleton or void in partner's hand plus no useful values outside the pointed suits. Using up that much bidding space means we're not interested in slam unless partner has extras in the suits west has already bid... 5♠ is obscure but is best interpreted as a trump quality ask. Holding a stiff trump A, this seems wierd at best.

Missing KQxxxx, there are 16 cases splitting Hxxx/Hx and only 12 splitting HHxx/xx. The remaining 2 cases rounding out the 30 possible cases are xxxx/KQ (recall all this is symmetrical). The likelihood that KQxx is onside is 6 cases to the 16 cases when 4-2 with split honnors. 3-3 occurs 24 cases. In 4 cases the HH will be onside and 4 cases they will be offside. Split honors occur in 16 cases. With split honors we get 4♣ tricks by finessing twice (assuming entries and side suit controls allow that). But we don't need 4 ♣ tricks. Since we only need 3 ♣ tricks lets count losing cases against that requirement. There are 4 losing cases when the suit splits 3-3 taking 2 finesses. There are 22 losing cases when the suit splits 4-2 and we finesse twice (all 4-2 with split honors and HHxx offside). Playing Ace then low gives us no losing cases when suit splits 3-3 and 12 losing cases when the suit splits 4-2. 26 to 12 is good reason that Ace then small is best.

The 3♦ bid is bad in several ways: 1) a side though anemic 5-card ♥ suit will be lost, 2) The loser count is too low, and 3)the ♦AK are valuable on defense. West should reason that a raise to 4♦ is about right if partner has the traditional 6 winners at this vulnerability. Not speaking is not an option. However opposite a disciplined East I would only bid 4♦ not 5. Holding East's cards I would make the Michaels Cue bid. Yes, the ♥ suit is awful, but it is about right on playing strength and will get us to ♦ at the right level when that's the right strain. If partner bids 2N to ask, I am bidding 4♦. Partner will know what to do.

I might be dense, but there are 9 tricks if we score 3♠+2♥+1♦+3♣. If the opening lead is honest, then East has only one card higher...playing low will still let us score the ♠J later. Trouble is that we need to allow for losing 2♣ tricks - not enough red suit controls. Therefore ♠J trick 1 followed by to the ACE and a small ♣ (Playing for 4-2 split honors). We have enough timing now to get our 3rd ♣ established.

3♦, echoing wyman and yuo18772...adding only that I hope partner can rebid 4♣... :rolleyes:

With my luck, I double and North holds: ♠KJT54 ♥QJ ♦Q53 ♣763 We won't recover unless we can play Equal Level Conversion here. (If not, partner will not believe I do not have 3+♠). So I guess I double and rebid 4♣ if partner bids 3♠ Sometimes preempts work. :blink:

I think the jump to 5♦ is misguided - just give East 3 good spades to see why (3=2=5=3). ♠ are still in the picture after partner's 2♦call. I like the 3♥ splinter a bit more than the possible 4♥ exclusion bid because ♠s are still alive and I need to know if partner controls ♣. With a ♣ control the exclusion bid is a no brainer - however I have many partner's who forget that the level above a splinter bid is exclusion RKB. As for a 1♠ opening bid on this hand, I would choose that over 2♠ and pass - all HCP are working in the 2 suits. I owe partner 1/2 QT. 65 shape pays that debt nicely.

Partner needs only 6 HCP and 5♠s to free-bid 1♠. Yes, the opponents are preempting. The ♦A is a negative - they bid to 4♦ without it, so they hold something equivalent in the black suits. I like South's hand but I believe a double of 4♦ needs one more King. Give me Axx AKxx x QJxxx and 4♠ has better chances. I will pass the decision to partner.

Absolutely - Fatigue is almost always at the root - I look to 1) Exercise, 2) Diet, 3) Rest, 4) talking with partner(s) and 5) Distraction in about that order. Getting a 1/2 hour aerobic exercise between sessions can get your brain back to center. Finally, I reassess my approach and look for breaks in discipline. Rereading favorite bridge books and reaffirming the analytical approach at the table always helps.

I prefer a reopening double with the South hand, but North cannot stay silent over the existing 3♦ rebid. 7-losers suggests 5♦ is likely and 6♦ is not impossible.

The 2-2 ♣ split (40% or 3:2 against making) makes 10 tricks. MLTC is 6+9--> 9 tricks unless something good happens in ♣ or ♥ (partner could have the ♥J). On values I think the rebid is 3♥. Playing support doubles, a redouble is 3 card support.

Trying to link to a similar page in a different string that has web references you might find useful: Boxed Myself in Here

Support doubles typically apply through 2♥ for Law of Total Tricks reasons - you don't want to get stuck playing a 4-3 fit at the 3 level when strength is equally distributed and there's no shortness in the 3-card trump hand. After partner's 2/1 bid, a double here is Balance of Power (See Mel Colchamiro's Book) and requires only 3 trump if intervenor's (opponent) bid is at the 2 level and 2 trump if at the 3-level (Mel's rule of 23). Red vs White you have to decide if your side's putative game is worth more than the double.

Priority for South is first to determine if North has ♥ support. Therefore I prefer the following sequence: [hv=d=n&v=0&b=1&a=1dp1hp2dp2sp2np4dp4sp4np5dp6d]133|100|0314 RKB[/hv] This is slightly better than the splinter IMO because it caters to a possible 1=3=6=3 shape in North. BTW 4♦ in this sequence invites Q-bidding. 4♠ shows 1st round control.

Pass should not be weak only. With 16+ and 3+♥s, a penalty pass is a good idea too. We hope partner will reopen with a double. I'd play 2N as Good/Bad - asking partner to bid 3♣ unless s/he has no tolerance for ♣ at all. 2N says I want to sign off at the 3 level. That way, a direct 3♣/♦ bid can be strong and forward going. With any hand holding enough to rebid (jump to) 2N in a constructive auction I pass hoping to get a double from partner. Red vs White at IMPS I might just bid 3N instead. 2N then a delayed ♠ raise should show the equivalent of a JUMP to 3♠ with a ♥ stop (similar to Lebensohl - Slow = stop) just in case 9 tricks are the limit for us. Again we have to weigh this against doubling them.

I like tight ranges for doubler's rebids. 2♥ here is 17+ to 19-. 3♥ rebid would be 19+-21. 22+ cuebids first. A 2nd Double instead of 2♥ promises only a 14+ perfect shape takeout, and is not forcing. With 17-19 and 6 ♥-cards 331, I would almost always overcall hearts and not double, expecting to make a subsequent takeout double of the suit that is my singleton. I would not do that with ♠. I will take my chances by passing 2H. I think an 8-trick contract with 7 trumps is simpler than a 9-trick contract with 8 trumps (♦). If partner is as good as AJX AKJXX AXX KX I would expect to hear either a 2N or 3♥ rebid (I tend toward ♥ because of primes).