SteveMoe

Thanks Justin! Good Luck this week.

To all voices (and you are many) giving life to the Matchpoint dimension of the decison Many Many plusses coming your way. Thanks! I have 2 itches to scratch (please forgive if these need to be separate posts. I will comply if that helps: 1) No one has mentioned whether the prospect of 3=5 split in ♠ should factor into a decision to simply make the hand. I would like to better understand the full odds decision process for choosing overticks vs simply making... and the related question: 2) How best to hone one's field estimation skills? This is far from an exact science and usually mis-ascribed to "luck". Thoughts?

Passing ASAP with this misfit...

Double - for reasons already mentioned. If overcall 2♦ we might lose the ♥. Say partner holds xxxx, Jxxx, Kxx, Ax. We'll never find ♥ over the 2♦ overcall.

I think pard won't have more than 5-6 HCP on this hand. I do not think we can beat this hand from my holding alone. If partner has a 5-card suit it stands to be ♥. I will lead the ♥10 (unblocking) and hope to find partner with AJxxx or similar. Even Axxxx or Qxxxx might be enough to beat this...if they have only one stopper...

Pavlicek's website shows success is about 53.65% for K first and 43.52% for x-x first. The key is in the avoidance constraints. Check out his card combination analyzer at http://www.rpbridge.net/cgi-bin/xcc1.pl

Lead J toward length, intending to finesse. Win if covered, then small to 7/8. 5 tricks 79.1% of time. Win 6 some 3.4% of the time. Gives up 2 to to K109xx on side and 3 to 0 - 5 offside. Gives up 2 to all x - xxxx. Check out suit play at http://home.planet.nl/~narcis45/suitplay/ Windows friendly donate/freeware that has great ability to find best lines for suit combinations. Line above unadjusted for open spaces or HCP.

IMO: 1) RKB for ♥s. Cannot be for 6 keys as minor is unknown. Not ask minor at 5 level - 2N is available for minor ask. 2) Minor ask or raise of ♥s - either way, strength is implied. See #3. Should be </= 6 losers (assumes x, Kxxxx, Kxxxx, xx is a suitable minimum Michaels - tune for your preference). 3) I favor pass or correct to intervenor's minor. To Play.

I pass. Too quacky and 2 winners short of an opener (9 losers), not to mention only 1 1/2 QTs. I don't open these playing Precision either.

I agree. I would respond 3♦ not using transfers. I assume double is the only way to show a sound overcall after the raise? Or does it show tolerance for the remaining suits? Double might be carrying too much a load. I wonder if the possible ambiguity (caused by weak/preemptive, negative freebid, or invitational plus) caused partner to second guess continuing? Playing against transfer responses this suggests a raise can create ambiguity. Interesting...

A different construction:8 Overcall 6-16 also 17-19 with exactly 6-3-3-1 shape, 1 in their suit (♠s here). Double then double implies no 5+ card major or 6+ card minor to rebid. Generally 14-19 HCP. Double then new suit 17-19 (excludes 6331 shapes). Double then jump new suit 20-21 Double then NT 19-21 Double then Q-bid 22+ On this hand, I would double then rebid 2N. I would open this hand 2N in 2/1. North cannot pass either 3♥ or 2N. Responder has an 8 loser opposite partner's at worst 5-loser (here 4). 5 or 6 of either minor should be on the radar screen...

I like 2N at MPs ( conservative) and 3N at IMPs. I think I see 8 tricks in NT....partner stands to contribute one more...

In my 2 serious partnerships we loosen/tighten our requirements for preempts according to both vulnerability, defense and position. This question didn't state opener's position. In general for position, tight: 4th > 2nd > 1st > 3rd :loose. Likewise for vulnerability, tight: Unfav > Both > Neither > Fav :loose. (We might also adjust what we do based on the judge quality of our opponents tight: weak > Intermediate > Expert :loose). This hand would be a 3♠ opening in 2nd seat (intending to double 4♥ to show 2 D-Tricks & invite partner to pass or bid 4♠). In first seat 1♠ gives us 2 bites at the apple. In 3rd seat 4♠ seems very comfortable. In 4th seat I likely open 2♠. As vulnerability worsens, my 1st seat action would not change. At unfavorable vulnerability 2nd 3rd and 4th seat would be 2♠. Any thoughts how position changes your approach?

Given the 5♦ bid, we're looking at 6 cover cards including the AKQ of trumps. Partner's 5 level jump rais all but promises 7 cards in ♦s or additional values. I think 6♦ is right As others above, I prefer 2♥ LR+ instead of 5♦.

I like Two4bridge's approach with a small twist: 1NT - 2♣ 2♥ - ?? ........ 3♣/3♦ = 4Major/5+minor, GF - might or might not be hearts... ........ 3♠! = fit, splinter somewhere; 3NT! asks where ........ 4NT = misfit, Quantitative - Promises other major. ........ 4♣! = fit, RKC-Gerber ........ 4♦! = fit, no shortness, slam invite see: http://www.cincybridge.com/NLM/20111128_Learning_Points_Stayman_on_Steroids.pdf So here we have: 1N-2♣ 2♥ - 3♠ 3N - 4♦ 4N - 5♠ 5N - 6♣ 6♦ - 6♥ AP Notice if North's hand is slightly different - move the ♦K to ♠: [hv=pc=n&s=saqj52hkq93d2ck54&n=sk98haj72da64cat8]133|200[/hv] Now the bidding will be: 1N-2♣ 2♥ - 3♠ 3N - 4♦ 4N - 5♠ 5N - 6♠ 7♥ AP

Useful thought about extra length. I had been thinking that a freebid in a new suit by opener shows either a better hand than a pure minimum opener, or perhaps 5-5. This would put a bit more burden on Responder and not afford us the negative inference about whether opener holds say 4♥s in addition to 5 ♠s. Do you think opener should pass on all 5 card minimums (11-12, say)?

Liking Pass then 2♦ over partner's expected reopening double. Nice 9 not worthy of 2♠ cue IMO.

A minority viewpoint: Opener is describing minimum 6♦-4♥ shape, showing ♥ values wanting to right side NT against a black suit lead. Also allows for 5-6♦ if partner is 4=1=3=5 with working values. Since we are already in a game force, 4SF is not "ON" (similar to, say, 1♠-2♣-2♦-2[hearts}= Natural and forward going (slammish)).

Perhaps the issue isn't locating a specific card, rather finding the safest (highest probability) line to make your contract. Knowing winners and losers, etc, and accounting for danger hands and avoidance plays often makes finding a specific card less important. I like the approach Rodwell teaches in his recent book: Identify trick "packages" that will complete your contract and read shapes to determine the most likely "package". Whether you think lines of play or trick packages or both, being able to visualize the key card and shape distributions you need are at the core of getting it "right". If what you need is consistent with the evidence, go for it. If not, then reset and find one that is. I would like to better understand what you mean by no ability to employ discovery. Perhaps there's a way to accomplish what Justin suggests with the existing information plus a few gatherable facts.

Ditto on the double of 1♠. Partner has ♥s and ♦ with ♣ shortness. My best next move seems to be a 2♥ Q-bid intended as a fit showing game force. Then let the bidding evolve...5-losers and 17-18 SPs should make partner happy. I expect partner has 11 HCP - some in ♥ might not be working. I will raise 3♦ to 5.

Agree w/ Aguahombre that doubles here are very context dependent - lots of negative inferences to sort out. Need to factor in agreement for opener's double of interventions over 1NT (Opener's RHO). If takeout(better) regardles of strength, then responder might have to protect penalty passes. If penalty then responder might have to protect takeouts for, say, hearts under spades. Where BOTH majors are denied by 1N, straight penalty or Balance of Power Penalty appear best choices. I prefer BoP - showing 3 cards in their suit and top of range for 1N (we hold BoP). Applies in front of or behind intervenor. If one logical suit remains, (say 1♥ - P - 1N (denying ♠) - 2♣ - P - P - [Only diamonds remain]) the Double should be BoP, showing 2 cards for Partner's Major (perhaps 3 for partner's minor), 3 cards in intervenor's suit and 10-11 HCP. If 2 logical suits remain (1♠ - P - 1N - 2♣ - P* - P [♦ and ♥ are live possibilities]) Double should be takeout independent of responder's range. (*= Does opener automatically double with 4 hearts?). Responder has 3 of Opener's Major to show 3-card limit raises. Responder also has 2 of opener's major as 2-card "raise". 2N should show clear stopper for "Y" and 11-12 (wasted values for a BoP double). Suspect 1♥-P-1N-2y-P-P-2♠ should be a 11-12 2-card raise without stopper for "y".

1) This hand has lots of offense and poor defense. The extreme shape suggests we have two ways to win: show both our suits or shut the opponents out so they can't find their fit. Let's do both! I like 4♠ immediately here, planning to bid 5♦ only if they continue. On the given auction I would not call the director. I showed a much more powerful hand than I held - the actual bidding suggest much more defense than this hand has. 2) Norths Jump to 5♦ is unilateral. 3N would be much better. South should continue with 4♣ (Gerber or Control Asking) to get to slam. Perhaps lack of clarity on what responder bids with slam negative and slam positive hands is the real culprit. 3) Partner's 2♠ is to play. The 1NT overcaller is NOT the captain. I think the double is a violation of partnership bridge and the worst call. Partner promises no defense. Declarer knows where to play missing strength. 4)♣A then ♦ to the K. Win next possible return and play along cross ruff lines, cashing 2♥s before ruffing minors. 5) Pass (positive, 2Q's or better - they rate to be useful cover cards) then 4N over the double - two places to play...

North might try a small swindle: Assume South deals - 1♥ - 4♣ 4♦ - 4♠ etc. Against higher level competition I think the ♣ lead will be unlikely... Back to reality, my 2/1 partnerships would likely bid 1♥ - 3♠ (hidden splinter) 3N (asking) - 4♦ 4♥

Opening 1♣ and jumping in NT or Opening 2N gives up on slam whenever partner holds AK and A in the majors and 3-4 ♣. I think the reverse keeps open the possibility to declare 3N from this hand if partner is not super weak. Granted 2N is practical but why give up on the upside this hand offers? Something like ♠AKx ♥Axx ♦xxxx ♣xxx would raise to 3N or pass a 3N rebid, no?

Pass and hope partner doubles. I'll pass that too.