SteveMoe

If not a support double, then should show 2=3=3=5/2=4=3=4 and 18-19 HCP (15-17 opens 1N, 12-14 passes 2♦). Cooperative Penalty double. Promises 3 cards in their suit (2 cards at the 3-level), and not more than a tolerance (0-2 cards) of responder's ♠ suit. Responder will know what to do.

Take the first 90 seconds to plan the play (defense).

Expert Bridge Simplified by Jeff Rubens (2009) Bridge Odds for Practical Players (Master Bridge) by Hugh Walter Kelsey and Michael Glauert (Aug 2001) Bridge, Probability & Information by Robert F. MacKinnon (Author) Take All Your Chances by Eddie Kantar Meta analysis: Richard Pavlicek Odds & Theory Richard Pavlicek Major Events ...get back to us if you find something!

Multi 2[di}. If not available, then pass.

Some tools for the 1a-1N-? auction: 1) Use your favorite 2-suit NT defense (Mod Capelletti, DONT, Meckwell, etc.) as responder. 2) Play transfer responses. 3) Play NT systems on over their NT (more useful when partner opens a minor). and of course, 4) Follow the standard convention: Simple new suit bids are weak - to play Simple raises are to play. Jump raises are preemptive. 2N is a support cue bid (or alternatively, a preliminary bid for a forcing bid in another suit). With support, 2N promises an unbalanced hand. Sometimes it's worth more to get to our Vul game rather than defening their NV 1NX contract. J/S in a new suit is GF. Requires a good suit (tenaces expected to work because RHO has bid NT). Double shows 9 or more HCP, generally balanced or semi-balanced, and a desire to penalize. As to this particular hand, the ♥ suit is anemic. the ♣QJ might be worthless. We've got a fit for ♦ and a ♦tenace to boot. Two Aces. Double is clear. We should beat this 500 or so. If we can make 3 NT, they can make 1N-3.

Whether 3♥ is forcing 1 round or to game might depend on partnership agreement. I prefer GF - something on the order of 21 Support Points or 4.5 losers. NT, ♣s and ♠s are on the radar screen. The on ehand we know partner does not have is 7 running ♣s and pointed suit stoppers. For NT, we have to decide whether 3♥ asks (Western) or shows a NT stopper. I like Auggie Boehm's suggestion "1 Ask, 2 Show". With two unbid suits by our side, a cue bid shows a NT control. So, 3♥ shows a ♥ stop and expresses doubt about ♦ if partner is interested in NT. In the given auction, the subsequent pass by North is forcing and denies first round control of ♥ (North would double to show the ♥A). South should double with transferable values, and bid 4♠ with more offense than defense. Here I'd bid 4♠, though double might be right. If instead you choose to play 3♥ as Western asking for a stopper, then the subsequent pass is forcing with no ♥ wastage. (Here South might have missed a step. South has a perfect hand for either black suit. Perhaps a 4♥ control bid (void) instead of 3♠ would be what North wants to hear).

Trust partner and return the ♦4. Partner's lead should be a suit preference card.

Counting shape can be important. Here's a link to the BBO counting game developed by Fred Gitelman - It trains us to immediately recognize the 4 number pattern totaling 13 for suits in a hand or a suit across 4 hands. http://bridgewinners.com/pages/counting-game/ Eddie Kantar's books on defense are very good at showing how to count. When it comes to counting shapes of hands, first ask what the bidding shows. You can know what shapes declarer is likely to have from the bidding in many cases. Best is to note bidding and likely shapes as the bidding evolves. This helps whether you are on lead or declaring. By the time it comes to make a play you will have started building your image of the missing hand shapes. When declaring, the opening lead offers hints at the suit split around the table (4th from longest and strongest). During the play, opponents count signals might help (though many do not signal all the time). Show - outs (when a defender or declarer discards) paint a clear picture of the distribution. The important thing is to do the mental work to note what the show-out says about the suit around the table, and the other suits in that hand. What's important is to take a few seconds and focus on the information as you receive it. Each bit of additional information (bidding, passing, lead, play) should help you refine your estimates. Importantly. sometimes it's right to count shape, sometimes HCP, sometimes tricks. You need the develop the discipline and the presence of mind to know which matter more and focus on that information. Suppose you declare 3N and get the ♦5 lead. With ♦98 opposite ♦A32, you know immediately that RHO has 3 cards higher and the ♦ are likely splitting 5-3 or 4-4. If RHO has the ♦4 you know they are 4-4. If LHO has 5♦s, then 5332 or 5431 are their more likely shapes. You can then begin forming inferences based on the rest of dummy and your hand. Here's something you might enjoy: http://www.cincybridge.com/Lessons/20100506_The_1st_90_Seconds.pdf

Do you know LHO's tendencies? Absent experience I would bid 5♣. As other have noted partner cannot have 2As and 1K. I'd add LHO might be less likely to hold the ♥K than RHO. Would want a 2nd♠ for a double here (Cooperative Penalty).

Lead the ♥. You hold 2 HCP. Opponents bid game freely in a strong auction. They are likely to hold 26-29 HCP. With more, they might have tried for slam. That leaves partner some 9-12 or more HCP. Partner also has a 5+ card suit. So, on the assumption that partner has 1 maybe 2 more entries, it is in our favor to attack in our side's longest suit. Partner's 1♥ is sound information. Any minor suit is a pure guess. ♠ is pure folly - declare has 4 of them thanks to Stayman.

Lesh, Counting losers helps identify threats whether in a trump or a NT contract. In a trump contract we look to eliminate losers in one hand so we can ruff losers from the other. Usually in NT the loser count in a long suit must be less than or equal to the number of entries we have to the hand with that suit, so we can set up length tricks then get to them to cash them. Take just one suit into consideration with NO high cards: if it splits xxxx opposite xxxx then as long as the remaining card split 3-2 you have one sure winner. xxxx opposite xxx gives you a sure winner only when the remaining cards split 3-3. For xxx opposite xxxxx you will have 2 winners if the suit splits 3-2 (losing three top tricks). Likewise xx opposite xxxxxx might yield 3 tricks if the top cards behave evenly. So we conclude that length per se offers tricks as long as we have the time to develop them. For AKxxx you have 5 of the 13 cards in your hand. Each player rates to have 8/3 or 2 2/3 cards in the suit. You will likely have only 1 loser if they split evenly (and partner doesn't have the Q). Another way to think about it is if the A and K each take 3 cards then the first 2 tricks exhaust 8 of the 13 cards - you have 3 of the 5 left. If the rest split 2-0 unfavorably you will lose 2 tricks. If they split 1-1 you will lose only one trick. Now consider AKQx AKQ AKQ AKQ. You would likely consider this a 1 loser hand. It might be. All depends on whether partner has LTE 2, 3, 4, or more {sp}s. Where we own 8 or more cards in the ♠ suit on this hand the chances improve that this hand has NO losers. Losing trick count is a technique for counting losers by assigning winners as A, K, or Q. You cannot hold more losers than cards in any suit. A is always a winner. Singleton K and doubleton Q are winners only when partner has an honor in that suit. No way to know until bidding confirms it. So stiff K is 1 loser and Qx is 2 losers. Kx is 1 loser. Losers are any A, K, or Q you do not hold. So for AKQx AKQ AKQ AKQ There are NO losers. For a companion hand, xxxx xxx xxx xxx there are 12 losers (the max possible). So in any 2 hands there are 24 possible losers. If we total the number of losers in both hands in our example, we get 0+12=12. 24-12=12 are the number of tricks we expect to take, assuming we have an 8-card trump fit. So if partner has xxxx xxx xxx xxx we stand to make slam (any 3-2 split). If partner holds xxx xxx xxx xxxx, then we are likely to make 12 tricks only 36% of the time (when ♠ split 3-3. Note a 3-3 ♣ break helps only if ♣ are trumps because we have no entry to partner's yarborough. I can't say how anyone would know which black suit to choose. So, AKxxx Axxx Qx xx are all losers. Finally if we hold Axx opposite xxx, we expect 2 losers. If we hold Axx opposite Kxx we expect 1 slow loser (slow because they have to knock out both the A and the K). If we hold Axx opposite Qxx we expect 1.5 losers - half the time the K will be well placed. Slow losers are important to identify in trump contracts because you want to pitch them on winners or other losers (loser on loser) to reduce the number of threats the defense holds against our contract. Hope this helps...

♥Q, looking to find partner's length. Hope partner has a ♦ entry later.

Can't believe there are many that would argue against opening North 1 NT. Unlucky that South had the perfect cards for you. Somewhere I recall folks advocating a 2N or 3m response when holding a 6-card minor. That would have worked well here. Not sure I've seen that treatment in a while... 16 opposite 14 with 2 balanced hands doesn't seem like a common recipe for 6. Perhaps if North chooses 1♣ instead.... 1♣-1♠ 2♣-2♦(3rdSF) 3N-4♣ Minorwood.... 4♦-4♠ ??? Precision: 1♣-2N(14+Bal) 3N(alpha for♣)-4♠ Best response (4+ Controls,Hxxx or better support) 5♥-5♠ control bids 6♣/NT

♠Q. No need to start ♥, and ♦ likely gives up a tempo and a finesse. Yes, I would open 1♠

4♠. Partner made a slam try. Let's cooperate.

...we always rebid 1N and save 2♣ for any hand with 45 or 54 in minors.

Intriguing question, Phil. Not seen a sim on this point. FWIW I usually let partner play 1N if I have two or more cards that are possible entries. Being able to lead twice toward the big hand is often enough to get a plus score, or a small minus. With any singleton/void I look for a trump fit. I am less likely to scramble NV. With soft values only in the minors I am likely to flip a coin. Not sure if there is a "major suit lead bias" in a 1N contract. Not sure there's a difference between 1st/2nd seat opener and 3rd/4th seat opener. Opponent's are more prone to intervene these days so there is a small inference that there are 4 balanced hands at the table. Doesn't Larry Cohen's data (1 million hands) suggest 1N is a very advantageous contract for the declaring side? Would be great to look at how many of these hands were suitable for garbage stayman...

A good approach after 1M-X is BROMAD: Bergen Raises After Major and Double... 2♣ = 3-card Limit Raise 2♦ = 3=card constructive raise 2M = 3 card weak raise (preempt) 2 Other Major = 4-card Constructive Raise 2N Jordan - 4-card Limit/GF Raise. 3M = Preemptive Raise (I prefer to make this a balanced constructive raise when vulnerable, so 2 OM implies useful shortness). Using XX for remaining 10+ HCP hands allows responder to confirm NO FIT. 3♣, 3♦, 3OM can be used as you choose. Some like fit-jumps, some like natural no fit/Invitational. Some want these as natural preemptive.

Seems an old-style approach gets this hand across well: 1♥-1♠ 2♣-Any 3♥ (4♥ if Any=♥) and leaves room for investigating Majors or NT.

Ok Chris, I will bid 5N Pick a slam. Partner must have ♣AK and likely a useful Major card. If pard has ♦xxx and no ♠K today's not my day.

echoing wd!!

On one assumption (opener has at least 2 QT) I will start 3♠ and let the auction develop. 3N from partner would suggest few values in the pointed suits (I'd feel better if partner held the ♥K). I'll try 4♦ next, intending to correct the expected 4N or 5♣ to 5N Pick a slam. If partner raises to 4♠ on Hx/xxx I hope s/he would call 4♥ with 4 ♠ cards. Would you expect ♠Kx ♥Axx ♦xx ♣KJ10xxx to rebid 3N, 4♣, or 4♠? I would expect 3N. That hand looks pretty good for 6♣ or maybe 6N and a quantitative 4N won't get us there. If partner has no values in ♥ then we want to be in a suit slam. Finding a ♦ fit after partner opens 2♣ is notoriously difficult. Going slow helps. 4♥ responders have already decided strain. I want more information from partner...

If ♦s are 4=0 and LHO has the ♥A as well, it's not my day...

Would duck the ♦J to West. If West ducks, play ♥ to K hoping for West to be 4=2=4=3 with !H QJ (or Qx or Jx) (East 4=4=0=5). When they switch to ♣ will win 3rd round. If not ducked then ♦8 is entry to lead ♥ to K. Will unblock ♠ A only before putting West in with ♦.

Tempting to win ♠A and play ♦ along avoidance lines for ♥. However a 4-0 ♦ split can scuttle ♦ tricks without a proven entry to hand. So, win ♠K leaving ♠A in hand and play ♦A then J intending to finesse unless East plays the Q.