I reanalyzed someone else's simulation on 1,000,000 hands(sorry that I failed to find the reference) and the result is Shape Expected Total Tricks Any 16.87 4333 16.21 4432 16.41 5332 16.61 4441 16.77 5422 16.84 5431 16.99 6322 17.19 6331 17.32 5521 17.47 6421 17.57 5440 17.54 5530 17.80 7222 17.86 6430 17.88 7321 18.01 6511 18.29 6520 18.45 7411 18.47 7420 18.59