jogs

Sum of two suits The joint pattern pair of the partnership can be expressed as two 4-dimensional vectors or just sum the suits for the partnership and treated as one 4-dimensional vector of 26 cards. Using the one vector method, sum the two longest suits. The trick space for this sum would span from 14 to 26. There is a strong correlation between total tricks and the sum of two suits. There are three combinations which total 14 cards. 7-7-6-6, 7-7-7-5, and 8-6-6-6. About 20.5% of the time the board will be one of these three patterns. These 14 cards sum depresses tricks. About 14.6% of the time the board will be 17+ cards in two suits. The higher this sum the higher the expected total tricks. But it is not a strict one to one correspondence. Also during the auction it is often difficult for either partner to properly access this sum of two suits. Playing jump fits in both contested and uncontested auctions helps the partners to make this accessment. When the sum of two suits is high(17+), the source of tricks component plays a greater role in generating tricks. ------------ There is also sum of two suits for one hand. Ten cards in two suits in one hand often generates many extra tricks. Not so such for 5-5 hands. Think that pattern is overrated by the experts. 6-4 has been underrated. 11 cards in two suits is even better. When non-vul preempting with 7-4 can create many problems for opponents. Have few cards in the two side suits. Hands where most of the high card points are in the long suits tend to play 'lucky'.

Joint Pattern Pair Each player's 13 card hand has a pattern for the ordered configuration of the four suits. The suits are ranked spades, hearts, diamonds, and clubs. The hand's pattern is described in order spades=hearts=diamonds=clubs. List the number of spades for spades, etc. 5=4=3=1 means 5 spades, 4 hearts, 3 diamonds and 1 club. The equal sign is used to denote a permutation in the order of spades, hearts, diamonds, and clubs. The hyphen will represent hand pattern without regard to suit order. Pattern is a 4 dimensional independent random variable. Pattern is the second independent random variable for estimating tricks. Each of the four suits is interlocking dependent on the other three suits. Pattern is a four-dimensional vector in physical space. The sum of the initial length of this vector is 13 for 13 cards in each hand. There are 39 possible pattern combinations for each hand. 4-3-3-3 is the flattest pattern and generates the fewest tricks. 4-4-3-2 is the second flattest. 13-0-0-0 is the most skewed pattern and generates 13 tricks whenever the suit is trumps. Pattern pair is the joint pattern of the partnership hands. The suit pattern pair or pattern fit is the pattern pairing of the two partners' hands. All 26 cards of the partnership are used to estimate the effects of pattern. This pattern pair is the second estimator used for estimating tricks for each partnership. On any given deal tricks is a discrete integer variable at each table. It is difficult to conceptualize the relationship between pattern and tricks. Subdivide pattern into its three main components. The longest combined suit length is usually designated trumps. The trumps is the major component of pattern which is also linearly proportional to tricks. Therefore it is possible to express their relationship in a simple easy-to-use formula. The expected tricks is equal to the combined trumps of the partnership. With only this information the variance of this relationship is high. E(tricks) = trumps or E(tricks) = trumps + e where e is the error of the estimates. The second component of pattern the shortness of the side suits. This is the shorter partnership holding in each of the short side suits. 4=3=2=4//4=2=3=4. In this example, hearts and diamonds are the short suits. Provided there are sufficient trumps, the maximum number of tricks which can be lost in each suit quickly is the shorter holding of the partnership. In this example for the hearts it is two and for the diamonds it is two. E(tricks) = trumps + SST + e SST is the short suit total adjustment. This adjustment can both increase and decrease tricks from the original estimates. The third component of pattern is source of tricks(ST). This can come from long trumps in one hand or a long second suit, which is a source for extra tricks. Either the sum of two suits in one hand or the sum of two suits for the partnership. E(tricks) = trumps + SST + ST + e

Let's clarify the discussion. 2♣ - ? You want to know when should the inteventor bid? Inteventor is a made up word by bridge writers. Therefore the word probably doesn't appear in normal translations. This is one of my favorite subjects. First to bid at the 4♣ level or higher one must be non-vul and needs at least 10 cards(6-4 or better) in two suits. Think in terms of playing tricks, not high card points. Other than an ace, points in the short suits are bad for your side.

Movies are $17 in San Francisco.

http://www.nydailynews.com/new-york/11-arrested-nyu-protest-right-wing-vice-media-co-founder-article-1.2963179 Saw one sign "HATE FREE ZONE". All the hate is coming from the left.

http://nypost.com/2017/02/03/trump-taking-steps-to-roll-back-dodd-frank-financial-regulations/ Trump rolls back Dodd/Frank.

The left has perverted democracy with PC. PC is code for totalitarianism from the left. Trump is trying to return democracy to America.

They only have a right to peaceful protest. Once it became a riot, they were breaking the law.

♦ AQ762 ♦ JT8 The diamond suit fits nicely. Neither of the North/South players can know this during the auction. I would have bid both hands the same way as the diagram. Next hand.

hrothgar routinely breaks rules 1 and 3.

You are an arrogant, intolerant bigot. Your argument is so weak, you feel a need to include a personal insult. Elizabeth Warren hammers republican cabinet nominees on possible conflicts of interest. Truman said anyone who gets rich from public service is probably a crook. Ann Coulter is right. Today's left is no different from yesterday's McCarthyism.

Your numbers prove voter fraud. In the U.S. voter turnout is typically under 55%.

No. The Obama rally was due solely to easy money. It created this vast income inequality.

The Obama's net worth is $24 to $40 million. They have never had jobs that pay that well. Why is the progressive left not asking how the Obamas accumulated that wealth?

DOW 20K The progressive left said the stock markets would crash if Trump won the presidency. Wrong by about 5,000 points. What a thought. Businessmen are better at running the country than career politicians.

That is right. I'm referring to this board, not the general overcall range.

Bridge is a probability game. Most bridge systems are designed to find games and slams. There are unconditional probabilities, which are static, and conditional probabilities, which are dynamic. When we open and they pass our probability for game is over 50%. When they open our chances for game drops precipitously. With every new piece of information from the bidding the chances for game fluctuates wildly. The object of matchpoints is the maximize the expected mps. The object of imps is the maximize the expected imps. When game is unlikely it is no longer pragmatic to give high priority to finding game. The system should cater to game theory best strategy.

Hypotheses testing. There are two types of errors. Bidding unmakeable games. And failing to bid a makeable game. There are tons of articles which state that when game makes the side that bids the game wins 6-10 imps. When game fails the side in part score wins 5-6 imps. They neglect to mention that the two events(making or not making game) are not equally likely. Let's examine this bidding sequence. We, advancer, hold 15 HCP. ♥Q is badly placed. For five spades tricks to be easily made, intervenor needs ♠KJT9x. Else blockage may exist. LHO's HCP range is 11-18. Intervenor's HCP range is 7-14. The upper end of the ranges are unlikely as RHO may hold 3 or 4 HCP and neither of the others are necessarily on the bottom end of the range. This 15 HCP hand is trick poor. The likelihood of 9 tricks in notrumps is quite low. 25 years ago, Larry Cohen wrote in contested auctions 'the 2NT bid' should always be conventional. Rarely does anyone know when 2NT is the best contract. Since this question is part of the thread it is likely the partnership had not discussed the meaning of 2NT in this sequence. Advancer's hand has points but no obvious tricks. Therefore in this situation it is prudent to avoid bidding an unmakeable game. When opponents open, it is unlikely we hold sufficient HCP(25+) to produce a notrump game. Therefore reserve the 2NT bid to be conventional. With possible playing tricks as advancer just bid 3NT.

Hand valuation is an inexact science or rather a probability curve. With the ♥Q clearly badly placed and spade blockage likely, it is possible that more than 26 HCPs are required to make 9 tricks in notrumps. It's not clear to me that 2NT means in this sequence. But I suspect pard does not have(values for) a 3NT bid.

You guys just don't get it. In 2018 democrats will lose more seats.

Venezuela voted for socialism. Now they're going broke. The government can't make everyone equally wealthy. But they sure can make everyone equally poor. Your assets will be seized and the poor wont see it. It happened in China with communism. Bruce Springsteen and Beyonce both made over $250,000,000 last year. If the progressive left had their way, most of that money would go to the government. Yao Ming didn't get to keep all his earnings. Under socialism you wealthy guys would be expected to share your excess assets.

Actually in San Francisco seniors are exempt from that tax.

Every poll has leading questions. That's why most polls got Brexit and the Clinton/Trump election wrong. Thought you were providing a link for this poll on Muslims favoring Sharia Law. So are you lefties willing to defend Sharia Law?

I'm anti-progressive left. Am pro free markets, anti socialism. We are given a binary choice. I'm not allowed to vote for John Stossel. So it's for Hillary or against Hillary. Both Obama and Hillary disparage Americans, while praising Muslims. Half of Muslims in America believe in Sharia Law. Sharia is a set of moral codes which practices human right abuses. Therefore I think the democratic party took a wrong turn this century.

Ditto. This is pretty much my style. The 4-4 fit must play at least one trick better than notrumps before 4 of a major is superior to 3NT.