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Let me see I have an unlimited opening bid + to my left a p relatively short in hearts yet quiet and the vulnerability is not so good. The spade suit is ok for 4s my main problem is the clubs KQTx and I would think 4s is ok or at least not as scary. There are a huge number of hands where p has values in the reds that are totally useless in 4s and the number we go for is so huge our partners need to take a trip to the bar when they see it. We have all heard that opps 4h is a transfer to 4s if it looks reasonable (sometimes even not so reasonable) and there is indeed some pressure to act with heart shortness but the quiet from p is disturbing if we are thinking of making game. Some day p will hold the spade K and club QJ and 4s will only go down 1 for a great sac (assuming the opps do not bid 6 or 7 hearts that is). That is a pretty small target to cheer for when you are bidding 4s at these colors. The opps have possibly preempted themselves out of slam. If we come in with our scary 4s bid we just might encourage lho to go slamming if they are either short OR modestly long in spades (since then they will expect responder to be short). Assuming modestly long does not include the AKT ackkkk. That's a whole ton of risk with very little possibility of reward 4s is not for the faint hearted among us and thank goodness I own a lot of anti acid stock after seeing the polling results so far:))))))))))))))))))))))))

Good discussion but my responses were based on this particular hand not an a typical tox hand where the probabilities if p being 2344 are significantly higher than they are in this hand. I disagree that slam is greater than 50% given the hcp situation and the huge chance that suits will break poorly. That is a matter of optimism vs my ingrained pessimism (still havent won any lottery despite 3 centuries + (give or take some) of trying). I completely disagree that p will pass 3n with a ten count. Heck after 3s 3n I would raise to 4n with an A and a K and out. The case I was trying to make is that partner will pretty much always pull 4sx to something and we will rarely (if ever) have a clue if they have done it with 0 or 9. Doubling 4s is essentially a decision to play at least 6 without really knowing if it is a good idea. I disagree with the optimism that displays. It is definitely playing it safe but reasonably so when hoping for 3-5 hundred in undoubled undertricks opposite our near certain 430 for a 4n contract we cannot play (sorry but I totally disagree with playing 4n as natural as the times it comes up are puny in comparison to either wanting to ask for aces or (much more likely) wishing to show 2 places to play. Over 3 spades I prefer to have 4s available to show hearts and a minor and 4n to show the minors so it is not available (as natural) after 3s either. By choosing 3n over 3s I leave quite a bit of room for p to show something "useful" over there which will allow us to confidently explore for 6 or even 7. By choosing pass over 4s I feel ok coming away with a reasonable + score for my hand when I feel there is almost no chance we can play 4sx and there is a strong chance we will get too high under less than ideal circumstances.

I have no problems playing with sakuragi BUT JEC prefers practiced partnerships and we have never played together. If we can get some serious practice in (with limited time left) then I am fine with that. Worst case scenario Phil can you play with nige1? that way we would have 4 and we can always "defer" if more practiced partnerships decide to play??? Oh and I will do my best to make sure nige1 does not rate every bid you make (at the table anyway):)))))

LOTS of HCP but little room for science. Before taking action try to imagine the different outcomes possible and where you think you will go from there. It will be tough sledding to bid anything with great confidence so maybe it is time to pull back a bit. The overall difficulty is p is never going to envision your having this much power so virtually every possible hand they have they will bid as if the hand is totally broke and you will have no way to tell. Against 3s I think I will be happy with 3n and if p happens to amaze with a 4c (I will follow with 5n GSF) or 4d I will bid 7d or astounds with 4h (That is not as good as you think I will cue bid 4s to see if p can cue bid clubs though I will bid at least 6n)<I would expect any of those bids to be QJxxxx at worst>. Against 4s the vul makes it much more appealing to just PASS and hope we cannot make slam and that we can score up +300-500 based on power alone. For the optimists among you feel free to x and try to guess well from there since the odds of p leaving the x in appear to be slim at best. On average our combined assets will probably not make slam and that is a huge consideration when the mere finding of proper strain is a difficult task.

I posted this because noone else has. I chatted with susina and she believes we are putting a team together but I see no evidence that we are. I post this (thur night) in the hopes we can get last minute volunteers to give JEC a good workout prior to the nationals. BUT in case DIANA-EVA has already put a team together (and that is why nothing is posted here) please be prepared to yield to her already chosen team and forgive me for stepping in like this when I KNOW NOTHING SIGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH.

the five level is not safe:) to me the 5 level is safer than most of my grand slams:))))

Given the bidding p expects me to have 4 if not 5 diamonds so it is in our best interests for me to signal where I have side stuff (if any) at trick 1. I will play the dia 8 hoping p can read that as my lowest dia suggesting something in clubs. If I happen to get in later with a dia I would make a switch to the spade J hoping p has the AQT of spades.

step 1 what happens earlier in the bidding helps set the stage for later on. This means when you bid 2h as an artificial game force you need not worry about your bids below game as being forcing or not because by definition they are (unless you have partnership agreements to the contrary). step 2 what you choose to NOT DO in the bidding is just as important as what you DO. This pertains to this hand since you had a very natural game forcing 3h bid available (over 2c unless you had some side agreement to the contrary). Your failure to use 3h should means you deny having 4 hearts. Cyberyeti mentions 3h as a "catch all" bid (no spade support and no ability to bid 3n--note that the presence of 4 hearts is entirely irrelevant opposite a hand that has already denied 4 hearts). That is one idea I would use 3h as showing a partial heart stop and 3s as my "catch all" (since I could bid 2s with spade support). My bids also do not worry about heart length for the same reasons as above. Note how the bidding has taken on a completely different "flavor" and allows responder to make a much more accurate assessment of the over all potential of the hand when opener does not waste a level showing something (4 heart cards) that is probably irrelevant. Responder (with short hearts) is no better placed than they were when they bid 2h as to the probability of hands belonging anywhere from 3n to 6m. I see a couple of suggestions that 3h should be used to show 55 in the majors or a splinter showing club support. Neither is needed in any circumstance when one uses 3h are showing 4+ hearts and game forcing. Using the concepts above allows for a much wider range of contracts to be reached and splinter theory works just as well when you can tell p has no wasted values opposite your short suit so there is little need for a splinter there. This should answer your question about how to proceed when you have 4 hearts (vs say 4 clubs). Given the bidding at your table I would hazard 3n hoping the knowledge of opener having 4 hearts would act as a lead inhibitor on those hands where openers 4 heart pieces are of marginal quality. There is also no reason opener cannot have a couple of heart stoppers thus making 3n the best contract anyway.

I am probably as anti field as one can imagine and here it seems tactically sound to back in with 1n. I am not that happy with backing in with 1h mainly because of the soft values in diamonds which are all too easily ruffed away. It is almost impossible for p to have a hand where they failed to bid over 1d and yet feel compelled to bid 2s. The 1n bid also may make life much tougher for the opps to find any spade fit they have. Very difficult for the opps to find a successful x of 1n and we rate to score 6 tricks opposite an unlikely zip which will beat a lot of positive scores the opps might make. If my partner has used up their daily supply of antiacid I can find a pass.

dbl not much heartache for those that choose pass but have to admit 3n seems somewhat far fetched and needs a whole lot of luck to work. Dbl leaves 3s 3n 4c 4d 4s 5c 5d still in play and 3n leaves ummm 3n since p has no clue what you bid it with. It is very unlikely but x might also get us a rather large penalty in 3h x. I realize 3n is a big reward spot when it works but it can quite easily be a disaster when there are so many other possible places to play. At MP I can see some of the appeal for 3n since it rates to be a huge winner when it is right and it is only 1 board when it is wrong (however spectacularly). MP dbl = 8 pass = 5 3n = 4 IMPS dbl = 8.5 pass = 4.5 3n = 3

Hats off to MIKEH for another excellent presentation of why a particular lead was chosen. I do not agree with the conclusion but the thinking part is what makes this a great game. I would opt for the spade ace. It is a near certainty that p does not have long spades thus making a spade a "safe" lead so we can see the dummy and maybe see how to proceed. If a spade continuation looks grim and a club looks reasonable I would continue with the club A. Only after both the club and spade continuations look wrong will I fall back on the dia and hope p has 1 red ace. The bidding makes it anything but impossible for us to have 4 cashing black suit tricks so I see no reason to not try and take advantage of that fact and still have a back up plan when that fails.

At IMPS the risk/reward is clearly in favor of pass. This is MP however so any unmitigated disaster is merely 1 board. The question becomes just where does one draw the line on doubling the opps 15-17 1N (I assumed this info please correct if wrong) in the direct seat? The theoretical argument is that if rho has 16 and (in this case) we have 14 there are ten left and assuming they are evenly divided the opps have 21 to our 19 but we have the opening lead and if the x is correct we stand to gain a lot of MP while not losing quite as many if it is wrong. The question becomes one of partnership harmony. How many disasters can we stomach while trying to pull off razor thin doubles? IMHO this one falls a bit short mainly because we lack one critical ingredient to make these roughly 5050 doubles work (a decent suit to lead) -- our hearts are modest at best. We have nothing close to resembling a safe place to hide if the opps xx (back to heart suit quality again). Ax Kxx QJTxxx Ax is a 14 you can be proud to x with. It will not work all of the time but enough to make it worth while and you have a decent "home" if the opps xx. Deciding to x with your current collection is the main reason anti acid companies stay in business but if you find a partner that likes the roller coaster ride go for it and enjoy.

yes yes I KNOW 4h is too stinking high (I read the above) but I would still bid 4h with this hand for several reasons. 1. It is anything but clear which side owns this hand. The club K could be worthless and if that is the case our hand is essentially preemptive. 2. Jump fit is a great idea but unless you are playing it non forcing (I don't) you cannot turn the spigot off when game is not on. It might help to right side the contract if game has play. 3. P failed to bid 2n to show 55 reds. This usually means the opps have at least an 8+ card dia fit which they will much more easily find if we take the slow road (2c 2s 1s etc). The dia suit will most likely be lost after we bid 4h. 4. The 2s jump fit should show some cards not a bunch of quacks that are useless on defense. There is a reasonable chance this auction will be competitive and if we jump fit here with this defensive dreck it may become all too easy for p to misjudge at higher levels.

MEOW:)

P rates to have more hearts than any other suit so they rate to have "something" useful in hearts since they own all of our defensive assets. It is not so much that I expect a heart lead to be an immediate dagger but hopefully our one entry leads through some of the powerhouse on our left and possibly partner gets a slow trick later. I see little "future" in a club lead.

It did not come up in conversation but what would everyone take 4n as? The fact that we have a void seems to discourage far too many from ever considering something like key card because they want "science" even though our fine game is mostly based on probability. I would not hesitate to bid 4n rkc and if p showed 2 I would suspect the odds are 80%+ they had the dia ace and spade K and would go for 7s. Is everyone using 4n as asking p to bid a minor suit? I am curious.

The "problem" is one of perception/dogma. It is plain downright a ton more difficult to make something at the 5 level than it is at the 4 level when one is using the same "values" as are needed to make 3n or 4M. This inconvenient fact is what makes Q games a "good/bad" idea and the elimination of 4m invitational a "good/bad" idea. I say inconvenient because so many that play 2/1 gf (including 5m) pretty much ignore this fact. Bridge is a game and those that feel it is not worth differentiating btn 4c invitational and 5c probably do so because they feel it enhances their slam bidding and any trade offs are small compared to the much larger gains of being able to bid slams properly. Good and bad are terms relative to the thinking of individuals and hopefully partnerships. The best you can do is try to find partners that think in a similar fashion and good luck:))))) Or you can become a mentor and pass on your wisdom to aspiring players that will "always" agree with you:)

gotta love those preempts spice of life sort of stuff. I will guess at 5d since that is the least likely contract to get x if it is the wrong choice and still gives us a chance to get to slam when it is possible. Not enough stuff to cue bid. Too many values to make a hugely tepid 4d bid.

The Minority report returns and tries to make a case for a Low heart This rather unpopular choice is based on the probably unscientific principle that the odds are at worst 7-3 against lho holding the heart T. If p has no heart honor then the suit easily comes home anyway. If we survive the opening lead our heart lead might do much to alleviate some of the pain partner might otherwise feel since they hold at least 3 hearts (hopefully to an honor) and a (hopefully) dia stop and maybe a spade stop since we transfer the heart threat to our hand (that has pretty much nothing else useful to do). There is also the chance (not large) that lho has a singleton heart honor that p can cover and we hit the jackpot immediately. There is also the small chance p has a heart sequence and the heart lead is a killer from the get go. It is difficult for any other lead to lay claim to the many potential advantages of a heart lead with such minimal risk. Oh, did I mention that a low heart lead might discourage declarer from playing hearts when the suit divides favorably for them?

I could not vote sigh because how I bid depends on scoring---At IMPS I would open 1s and rebid 2n. At MP I would open 1N. The logic behind this is simple at IMPS we need to stretch to some iffy games and opening 1S gives us the opportunity to reach a sketchy spade game and the 2n rebid gives us a chance to reach a sketchy 3n game. At MP where reaching a sketchy game is usually bad the opening 1N will describe the overall flavor of my hand rather well though I am a tad top heavy. If you have not learned puppet stayman it is almost always advisable over 2N+ opening bids and over 1N at MP for hands just like this. A rebid of 2c with this much "stuff" seems wrong especially at IMPS where game is all too easily missed.

I opt for x however, change the minor distribution to 23 and I think 1N is safer.

With this pluperfect 3 aces, trump Q and possible ruffing value wild horses could not keep me from bidding 6c. Having said that I do not understand at all why the N hand would not like to play NT. The overwhelming majority of normal opening bids will make 4n far far far more often than they will make 5c (assuming the partnership agrees that 3n is feasible via the bidding). Worst case scenario this hand should be more than willing to investi- gate 3n and then issue a mild slam try of 4c. A typical sequence 1h 2c 3c 3d 3n 4c should get us to 6 easily enough yet still leave us with a vastly more practical 4n vs 5c if we do not bid slam.

Along the same lines what would 1n 2d 2h 2s have shown??? I would play gnasher's sequence as 55+ forcing and my sequence as 55+ invitational.

Do not see us making much but feel 4d is best chance at avoiding total disaster. True that we might get lucky and set 3h if we pass but the math does not look that great. Opps will probably score 6 heart tricks so that leaves us needing 5 tricks out of the last 7. The heart K is one of those so we need 4 tricks out of the last 6. Let's assume p has around 10 hcp we have 10 so the opps have around 20 also but 8 of those are probably in the heart suit so the actual count is 20 to around 12. our average is 5 to 3 but we need to outscore the opps by 2/1 to set. The defense actually has an advantage here in that declarer's hand is practically an open book so slipping a trick is unlikely so the odds of a set are much better than normal. BUT where are the aces?? shoot if lho has 3 of them we are completely toast and even with 2 of them and a QT opener with Jxx same suit and they have 9 tricks and we have bupkus. For those that do not mind playing roulette pass at MP (where it is only 1 board) seems like slightly better than a 50% shot. At IMPS I am pretty certain pass is a huge loser. Remember that 4d has can win by going down only 2 (in case most of the opps do not balance) and there is a fair chance it makes even while 3h makes which makes it a much better MP try also and does make p quake in fear anytime they try a balance under these conditions. IMHO 4d = 8 pass = 5.5 3n = 2 (and that 2 is generous)