gszes

I am completely uninterested in making 3n (it hurts to say that as a mostly IMP player). I am adopting a radical LOP precisely because it appears that 3n rates to be an inferior contract and the LOP that is being adopted is trying to match the probable 11 or even 12 tricks available in 4s. We are assuming that spades are breaking 32 (this is right only about 68% but since we cannot judge otherwise we are predicating our LOP on that assumption). In a vacuum it is totally right to play a small spade toward the Q but here there is an oddity. With so few spots LHO might easily be looking at something like ATx and would hate to fall prey to us having banged down the K from Kxxxx when it is so :obvious: the Q is an entry anyway. It takes great intestinal fortitude to assume our next play is not low to the Q and they are giving up on getting 2 spade tricks if their p started with Jx. Yes indeed low the Q will work 50% but how many times will banging down the K work in real life and the fog of war? The opps do not know what we are doing yet, that is what makes defense so hard. So in the relevant cases where spades split 32 there are ten where low to the A wins outright and only 8 where the KJ work outright. One also has to take into consideration just how many times lho will (very reasonably) cover the K with ATx or even A9x as they have to decide before seeing their partner's first spade play. Hard to quantify but I will take my chances that the fog of war will win out more often than not making the KJ a better start. Banging down the dia A to cater to the small chance of a stiff Q goes against the idea of the fog of war. Lho, with Axx of spades, does not know we are within a whisker of setting up the dia suit. Banging down the dia A will give them a much better idea of what is going on and vastly increase the probability they will indeed duck the spade K. If you intend to bank down the dia A then you are definitely better off leading low to the spade Q. I guess I prefer to give my opponents a reasonable chance to go wrong rather then depending on a lucky lie of the cards (still waiting to win the lottery).

TOX If the opps have landed in a bad spot at the 2 level an X BEHIND the long suit is penalty but IN FRONT of the long suit it is better to pass on the rare occasion you have strong trumps. You will have weak or short trumps a much larger % of the time and saving x for tox will allow your side to compete effectively in many more hands. I would not be shocked if the TOX treatment was effective around 85% of the time and the penalty x around 15% (anyone want to run a simulation)?

As u say its MP where bidding sketchy games is a marginal idea at best anyway. Coming back with a positive score is usually best when playing in the BEST strain. Sometimes 2s will work but most of the time it will be inferior and the entire concept of MP is avoiding inferior contracts because all tiny errors are magnified at this form of scoring. Normal does not mean it makes sense. If the 9 count happened to be especially well placed QJ xxxx AQxx xxx I think 3d is superior to 2s and should more than take care of any of those 17 hcp rarities.

1. Holding 2344 and 9 hcp no opp bidding partner opens 1s 1n(forcing) 2d 2s? the ONLY* time 2s MIGHT be better than 2d is if opener is 5332 specifically (*a smidgeon of the time with 6 ratty spades and 4d opener might bid this way also) why not pass?. 2. The overwhelming majority of slam exploration is useless because so MANY sequences have the same meaning. 3. Even when the bot :understands: a bid it NEVER pays attention to what it knows. 1s 2s 3d (HSGT+) 4s with QJx QJx xxxx QJx which is almost the most useless hand available and pass with xxxxx Axx Q xxxx which is so good I would encourage slam. 4. The bot completely fails to take previous bidding into consideration. P opens 1n p 2h (transfer) p 2s p p 3c 3s (this competing hand with 4s near max and 2 small clubs) ALWAYS gets a 4s bid since the bot now thinks opener had a super accept which was DENIED earlier in the bidding. 5. I am astounded at the number of times the bot failed to lead its partner overcall suit in favor of some speculative play (that invariably worked when it was defending against me and failed miserably when it was my partner in defense). At the very least change that situation to lead the overcallers suit unless there is GOOD REASON to avoid it. 6. rho opens 1c p 1s p 1n x if you DARE x here with say Axx QJx KQx xxxx you are in HUGE trouble because the bot is giving u credit for 16+ clearly impossible given your first pass. This is primarily meant for the programmers but anyone that hurts from these same issues feel free to take out your frustration here:)))))))))))

Congrats ARTK78 on a dominating performance -- I saw only one match that was even close throughout the entire tournament.:)))

looking at the two hands it seems 4s is a vastly superior contract to 3n and has reasonable play for making 6 if spades break 32 and even if spades break 41 ten tricks should still be easy. Those opps playing puppet stayman will find the 53 fit and play spades vs nt. Those opps that open 1s will find 4s. It seems that just being in 3n rates to be inferior. So our opps are not just those others in 3n but all of those in 4s as well. The questions seems to be what is the best way to go about making at least 5 and maybe 6. So I would: as soon as i figure out that spoiler format again anyway

easy 1d opener for me at IMPS (MP, where missing games is not as crucial, I sort of like 3d). There is just too much chance that 3n is merely on a dia finesse for 9 tricks for me to open 3d this way. Change the hand to something like Kx Qx QJT9xxx KQ and NOW the chances of making 3n opposite a passed partner border on close to nil but 3d should have reasonable play and it seems a shame to consider passing a hand like this.

The relative success of a situation depends on thinking about all of the possible lie of the cards (not always easy to calculate) and to go with the play that seems to have the highest chance of success. Note how Helene_T list ALL of the possible lie of the opponents cards to come up with the solution that the finesse is best. One thing to add, do not forget the bidding when making your decision. Lets say you are in 6s (your side has around 28 hcp) and east has opened 1h. That means east is a monster favorite to hold the spade King and taking the finesse becomes a huge probable loser while playing for the drop at least gives you a reasonable chance at making.

It appears the opps are missing at least one key card so a heart lead gives us a roughly 50% chance to set the hand almost immediately. If p has the dia A it is horrible for us and if they have the club A there is an extremely good chance all of our club strength is wasted. Leading a singleton is not always the answer but here it seems like a reasonable shot at setting a small slam and no I would not x because I am so sure this will work:)))) 1st rule of bridge when you have a known long side suit well covered by all means lead trumps to try and cut down on cross ruffing efforts (sorry i couldn't resist that)

this hand has more than enough power to invite partner (by bidding 2s) when they bid a simple 2h (over a pass vs 2d) after my 2c michaels. If you think about how the bidding might proceed you will see the tremendous advantage of getting partner involved in the decision making process early in the hand. I see so many 3h bidders at unfavorable and I will bet a ton most are doing that because NOW they want to try and get partner involved but they are doing it a level higher and taking a much greater risk. The opps have had a chance to exchange a fair amount of information and doubles could start flying around quickly. I ask all the 3h bidders what would you have done if the bidding had gone 1c 2c 2d pass 3d? I would pass how about you?

looks speculative atm i will arrive around 145 just in case

At these colors, it is always possible for opening bidder to have quite a distributional and weak hand and pass. 876543 87654 32 void. While this is quite a dramatic example I have few doubts that 5cx is not going to be the final contract. It is normally why we do not make an x of the opps when we expect to defeat them only 1 trick (and when they are nvul maybe even 2 tricks) at imps because it is not worth it in the long run. If the xer was not prepared for partner to bid on with a dramatic hand they are almost certainly better off passing 5c.

available

I will try the heart Q surely it is not too much to ask for P to have AJxxx in hearts:) Never fear getting squeezed since you have and easy spade and diamond pitch and declarer will have to guess that u blanked your spade Q if they started with the expected AKxx in spades. If all works right you will score 1c 5h 1s and 1d (exiting with spade after winning bare Q). Should be worth a lot of MP

It appears our chances of setting 4h are sort of slim. It is also quite possible P has something like Kx(x) in hearts and their minimum opening bid has taken a dive for the worse. This combination means we might have to look for a way to improve on what is probably going to be a poor mp result. I vote for 5d which seems like it has a reasonable chance to fall somewhere between a lucky make to down 2(x). All of those results are better than 4h making. If it is wrong it is only 1 board and not that many mp are going to be lost anyway.

available assuming my replies to the "problems" of last week did not earn me a disqualification

I would be a TON happier if the heart QJ were in the diamond suit since they rate to be no better than xx in our 10+ trump suit. Even after devaluing our only useful HCP outside the spade A, this hand is just wayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy too good to stop short of 6 opposite a partner that is forcing us to play at the 4 level + opposite what could easily be xx (or worse) in support of one of their suits. I will start with a semi useless 4s which can be cleared up quickly as a cue bid later in the bidding. We may have no strong way to get to 7 but surely we can bid no less than 6:)))))))

Win the club A and return the club Q. The chances of setting 4H has to border on close to non existence. Once that is recognized, we need to take our best shot at holding declarer to as few tricks as possible. If partner has a singleton club it is vital we get the club ruff in at trick 2 or there is a HUGE chance it will be lost and with it a TON of MP. Even if partner does not ruff trick 2 there is still a great chance declarer will play partner for the trump K and limit themselves to making 5. The 3c bid might convince declarer to tackle trumps by leading low toward the J at trick 3. They will then be in sticker shock when we win the trump K and continue another club that allows partner to ruff with Tx. Sometimes the boring play is the right play:)

ONLY NINE sheesh when I play them I usually have 17+ problems (ok back to work): 1. !SQ just in case it allows me to retain the lead and make a devastating switch (towhoknowswhere) and someday we might even snuff out the stiff J. Our x of 3s should clue p in to our length so that will help continuation errors. 2. Win the ACE and !HK (what the heck 2 honor empty leads in a row maybe I need to take up a new sport) anyway not giving anything away if opener has the !AQ and it gives us a chance to retain the lead if p needs a club ruff. 3. 4S the vul game beckons and the hand might play quite well even if spades dont break well with our clubs putting tremendous pressure on lho. (now if only responder has some spade spots:). 4. DIA J what the heck is declarer doing? Can breaking up a potential squeeze be worth this play? I am the freaking rueful rabbit it seems obvious declarer does not want a dia play so I shall go for it (sigh). 5. 3 NT at least I will have a solid idea on how to play the hand with the deck split slightly in our favor and LHO ripe for many squeeze positions. 6. Pass. This does not seem to be the type of situation where I want to risk the match by doing something. A X of 3h earlier would make this pass a ton easier but it is not an easy x. 7. Small spade toward the K. If I get this trick I have 9 if diamonds run. Even if they take it I am not set yet. If the K holds the trick I probably just lead a low dia and play for 22 break unless an honor pops from East. I will then finesse West for the other dia honor. 8. 3C. This hand seems to have improved dramatically since partner seems to be short in hearts and I have garbage. I will never be able to explain why I did not bid 1h to begin with anyway so there is no sense trying to play 3N when slam may be the right stuff. This bid goes opener as much room as possible to come up with their next bid and hopefully we can go from there. 9. We need to make LHO suffer as much as possible. I am thinking duck the heart and win the 2nd round. Play a spade toward the J and force RHO to decide early in the hand how many spades they wish to cash and how much they wish to squeeze their partner. We need a spade trick for 9 in pretty much every scenario anyway so why not try and get it early?

maureen (i think the bbo id is HALLOWAY) runs the bill program:)

welcome mkgnao (just finished kicking me all around the bridge table in challenge 11) too bad I wont be here this weekend to witness the demise of the mighty JEC :)))))))) good luck all

PASS If p cannot find anything good to do in PO seat we should have little/no play for game. Defending 1d might be terrific for our side as there is no guarantee the opps cannot make 4h when opener is 4432 and responder and p are too weak to bid. There is a very real chance diamonds might be the opps worst possible strain and they are vul. I like those odds and I am pretty sure we would have zero trouble passing if by some chance our wonderful partner balances with x in PO seat.

JEC matches (most saturdays around 2pm eastern time) are a great way to practice against some of the strongest player sin the WORLD. Hopefully we will all see that maybe playing with some of your challenge opps might not be such a horrendous experience. Make some time some saturday and maybe play with a strange partner you might be surprised how well it can go:) At the very least they will WILL BID AND DEFEND wayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy better than these nutty robots.

http://webutil.bridgebase.com/v2/tview.php?t=ARDCHALLENGE:13af2de0.fe11.11e7.9789.0cc47a39aeb4-1516473495&u=gszes MKGNAO 6 gszes 10

A mild dig on how hard it seems to get peeps interested in playing vs JEC even though the ones playing these challenge matches (currently 11 is running) have had a fair amount of exposure to many players that play reasonable bridge:)).