Jinksy

Your judgement is obviously better than mine, but I don't find this reason convincing. I'd have guessed the hand to average about 2 tricks better in a minor, which is normally the minimum number of extra tricks I expect us needing to make if I bid. And if we're off in all contracts, we're more likely to be off doubled if we're at the three level. Meanwhile, bidding can get us into nasty contracts in a number of other ways. I won't be thrilled to hear any of 2♠, 2N, 3♥, 3N, or 4♥ from P, directly or after competition, nor to hear a high level X. Even if he bids 2♥, I'm not confident I'll be improving the contract by bidding 3♦, since now it sounds like he's got a reasonable suit, and might have some soft values outside that can only get established if he gets to name trumps. So it seems like with 1N I'm basically angling for a 2m or 3m rebid (and I'm ambivalent about 3♣), which feels antipercentage.

I would pass 1♥, and as I predicted, I'm wetter than most players here. Do those who support 1N consider it close?

Are you expecting precisely 5404 shape from P then?

[hv=pc=n&n=sk7ht85dk94ckq842&d=s&v=e&b=3&a=1s2d2np3hp3np4cp]133|200[/hv] MPs with scratch P (to wit, me). What's your call? I've added a tonne of options largely because I don't know what half of them would mean, so can't rule them out. And what exactly do you think P has for his bidding? Is 4♣ natural? If so, how natural?

You might also want to link NT range to system. I play Fantunes, which pretty much forces me into a weak NT, though I quite like a weak NT into its own right. But if I'm playing a system that makes it playable, I like a mini. For semi-regular games with reasonably competent Ps I play variable range by preference. Also, by preference I play 2N as 5-card Stayman (from Meckwell, I think, via MickyB, so presumably worth including in here), and 3CDH as natural GF, with 3S as GF5-5m (my own recipe, so probably not worth having as a separate option). Also do you want to add 4-level responses? There must be a few opinions on those knocking around.

I've added my votes, but given that 2/1 is comparatively rare in the UK, they might be quite meaningless. They mostly reflect the general agreements I'd expect playing eg Acol or 2/1 with a strong pick-up partner mapped into a 2/1 context, so might be misleading if you're hoping for this to form any sort of guideline. Happy to delete them if you want.

3♥ barely seems like it should even exist. 3♦ is presumably a hand with no game interest but arbitrarily many diamonds, so opener needs something pretty extreme to push for his second suit - it seems to me he should have 6-6 in the majors (conceivably 5-6 if he'd open 1♠ with that]).

At least half the Acol players will open 1♣ rather than 1♥, and most of them will rebid 2N and play there. The brave few who bid on with the S hand will play in 3N or 4S. Even if they pass, they've done better than spade part score whenever they get Ds right. And against any number of spades a reasonable number of defenders will lead 4th highest from their longest and strongest. So I'm guessing about 25%.

I'll join the 3♣ bidders.

Ok, so double with (a slight flavouring of 1N). Next question: Would the doublers always X 1H on every 5332 hand with three spades, enough values to bid, and no decent stop in their suit? Or can you make it extreme enough to bid 2♣, eg with xxx xxx Ax AKQJx? If the latter, what's the borderlineiest hand on which you'd dither?

I'm wondering if I posted the wrong problem now. Suppose instead of the OP auction, it had gone thusly: 2♦ P 5♦ What do you call on the west hand?

Agree with 2C with such a thin H stop. Don't see any alternative to passing now. P isn't promising defensive value, and I have approx 2 2/2 defensive tricks, so I'm not doubling, and I sure as hell don't want to compete.

Sure, but you're not allowed to account for the fact that he could be psyching outright - that would be potentially fielding.

I thought about it, but didn't think anyone would want to. Should have known - it's added now.

If you tell me to play Multi-Landy, I will spit on your system card :P

Here's a follow-up question: [hv=pc=n&w=sa82h64daj87cqt32&d=s&v=e&b=3&a=4h]133|200[/hv] Is there any reason to find a (takeout) X as West?

[hv=pc=n&w=sa872hkt8dt98ckj5&d=w&v=b&b=4&a=pp1sd2c(3%2B%20support%2C%20c9-11%20points)2dpp]133|200[/hv] Butler IMPs. N/S appear to be, respectively, punter/pro. Does it affect your decision if P is known to bid aggressively in third?

Would it be simple enough to change the default of polls to be public? I basically always want mine to be, but occasionally forget to tick the box until it's too late. I suspect a lot of forum newcomers don't even notice it's an option.

[hv=pc=n&n=sa9654haqdj5432cj&d=s&v=0&b=11&a=p1n(12-14)]133|200[/hv] Butler IMPs. Are you more afraid of bidding or missing game?

This was actually our opps' auction, but I had a lot of sympathy for it. I don't know exactly what their system over a 1N overcall was, so I've made two polls, one for our system, one for the possibility that they didn't have any relevant C-showing bid. [hv=pc=n&s=sajt74h83dkq92ckq&n=sk6hj4dajcjt87654&d=e&v=n&b=2&a=1s1np3nppp]266|200[/hv]

Sorry, managed to get W's last call wrong - we're in 4♥.

[hv=pc=n&n=sj3h3daj8532cakj2&e=saq95hk864dqtcqt3&d=n&v=n&b=5&a=1dd1s4hppp]266|200[/hv] [eta corrected diagram] At trick 1, you lead A♣ (agree?). Playing UDCA, P plays the 4. Now what?

[hv=pc=n&e=sj43h9dk5caj98654&d=s&v=e&b=3&a=4hpp]133|200[/hv] Butler IMPs. Do you bid?

[hv=pc=n&w=skj853hakqt4dcaq5&d=n&v=0&b=1&a=2dp4d5dp5sp]133|200[/hv] Butler IMPs.

5♣ for me. I assume P is short in one of the red suits, but there's nothing to stop them having three cashing tricks, so I don't want to tell them which one. If P can't raise my spades, I'm not too excited about slam - it's obviously a possibility, but it feels more likely to me that we'll tip them off to the killer lead against 5♣ than that we'll be able to find one. If I played something like PhilKing describes, 4♣ would be more tempting, but with most partners, if it continued 4♣ 4♦ / 4♠ we'd be stuck with 4N as RKCB. Since I can't bid it sensibly and it's nowhere near strong enough to punt, I'll settle for the most likely game.