lmilne

Wow, everyone thinks that 6♣ is the best MP bid playing no system? Playing in a weakish field with no system, I bid 3NT as it looked like the biggest chance for a good plus, whereas 6♣ risks a minus that I really don't need with weak players having my cards around the room. 6♣ does make, but +720 (on a heart lead into the AQ) was a pretty hot score regardless. Can anyone be bothered to do a sim to see how many tricks are likely with clubs as trumps opposite 20-22?

Ah, thought the requirement was only an anchor suit of some kind. Didn't realise a 5-card suit meant it was a BSC. Strange regulation...

What would a 5♦ bid instead of a 5♥ bid mean? I'm thinking more in the terms of the auction (1♠)-2♥-(P)-2♠-(4♠), don't like 4♥. edit: lol south, good work

Haha, I'm a donk... I actually got dealt Q876542 J3 T5 J3 tonight and bid 1♠ over 1♣ at unfav. Got to a good 4♠, obv. Guess that illustrates the difference between theory and practice for me.

Yeah, it would be ridiculously low. Or maybe this is the shame at only getting the guard squeeze on the second go.

haha, nice

could throw in a cheeky heart. would bid 3D at other colours, pass at unfav i think.

The so-called "mini multi" (opening 2D with a very weak two, i.e 3-7) combined with a "constructive" weak two (opening 2M showing 8-11) is becoming very popular in Australia/NZ. It's completely legal in both these countries.

So is everyone leading trumps at trick 3?

I notice that I randomize whenever it's costless, but when there's some risk that partner might play me to be making some obtuse signal, I normally just play up the line. Most people I play most of the time aren't watching anyway :)

[hv=d=s&v=e&s=s762hd863caqt9875]133|100|Scoring: MP[/hv] Partner opens 2NT (20-22 bal). What would you bid playing a] your fav system with an expert partner b] playing puppet stayman, transfer (4C undiscussed) with an intermediate partner?

[hv=d=n&v=e&n=skt74hkt973d972c3&s=sj8652hq2d4cak762]133|200|Scoring: MP[/hv] Bidding (uncontested): Pass-1♠-3♠ (limit) -4♠ (normal accept right, even opposite passed hand?) Lead is the Q♦ (standard, always from QJ or Qx), RHO plays 3♦. LHO continues with the J♦ to the 5♦ and you ruff. I know partner might not have had a limit raise. How to best play from here?

I'd bid the weak fella (3♠). Think 4♠ is a bit much at nil, although I accept it could work.

Would never act unless favourable, might bid 2S or 3S at fav. Maybe 1S at nil. I don't see what the upshot is though.

It's like raiinnnn, on your wedding day... Oh, and 1NT. edit: not kicking over 3nt, obv

I play 1♠-2♥-2NT as 5S, minimum, unbalanced. Denies heart support. I guess my system is gonna be different to what a lot of folks play (we open our 18-19 bal hands 2♣, so we don't have to worry about them in this sequence) but what do people think of the general idea? Allows you to differentiate between 5 and 6+ spades immediately, and gets you the strength definition of the high reverse.

Damn, I was gonna type just this, but I got carried away :P . And the reason why picking up QJ doubleton is better than picking up stiff Jack is just vacant spaces or whatever its called.

In the example you give, after West plays the Queen and East plays a small card followed by another small card, the a priori odds are 12 to 11 on West having the Jack. But there are two causes for West playing the Queen: either he has the Queen only and was forced to play it, or he chose to play it from Queen-Jack. If West plays randomly, the 12 times he has QJ have to be reduced by half, making the odds 11-6 on finessing. So, if declarer always finesses in the situation (with the position of the final card unknown), he will win 22 times out of 34. If you always knew what card West would play from QJ tight, you would be able to do a tiny bit better. The ratio of QJ to Q to J is 12-11-11 (those are the a priori probabilities from division of a 9-card suit). So QJ is a tiny bit more likely than stiff Q or stiff J, but (stiff Q or J) is almost twice as likely as QJ. If you know what card West plays from QJ, you can discard that holding 11 out of 34 times (when he plays the other honor). If you finesse whenever e.g. the Jack appears, you will win 11 out of 34 times as just stated. Then, if you play for the drop whenever West plays the Queen, you win another 12 out of 34 times. Your success rate goes up to 23/34. So, it only goes up 1/34. In practice, your opponents only have to play the other card 1 out of 6 to make your guessing worse than always finessing. So you should always finesse (and you can presumably get away without falsecard or always falsecarding).

Two trump tricks, nil vul, no guarantee on game (not even close to a guarantee, actually). I'll rack up a plus score. Pass. Second choice 3N, as it at least has a good upshot. 3H sucks.

What? It is completely standard for good north american players at least, it is weird to me that you've never seen it. Bidding 6N with 2344 is horrible, it is very common to play the 4-4 fit. With (432)4 I would almost always bid 5C also. I play in New Zealand where everyone is dreadful, and my international experience has been junior stuff, so maybe it's the player pool around here. When I was thinking about this the other day it seemed revolutionary to me because I've never seen anyone do it, but it certainly doesn't surprise me that people are *gasp* finding fits. To be fair, I was mostly remembering a hand from the u-28 pairs final in Beijing where a 'good' player (don't remember exactly who) bid 6NT with a 4432 and a minor.

My point was that no one actually does Ken's suggestion (bidding suits on the way to accepting), except when they have a specific reason (often a good five card suit). In 5 years playing the game, I've never seen anyone (including at world championship level) bid anything other than pass or 6NT holding something like 2344, except to check aces along the way. I agree that natural 'works' and that there isn't a strong need for artificial stuff. But there seems to be a non-trivial problem with opener showing a suit every time he has one (e.g. bidding 5C on every non-min 4432 with 4 clubs), giving the opponents extra information about the unseen hands. The system I was suggesting tries to avoid these problems somewhat by making the hand that has given less info away play the hand. Perhaps something better would be using some bid after 1NT-4NT to get responder to show suits rather than opener. Then, even when opener plays 6NT there is a minimum amount of info given away. edit: Just to make clear, I'm more concerned with whether looking for fits is a good idea or not in these auctions, especially 4-4 fits. Once that question is settled, the system you use to find those fits is probably irrelevant as long as you can remember it, as the tiny gains/losses from right-siding etc aren't hugely important.

It seems (without sims to back me up) that a sound 8 or 9 card minor fit will often have better chances than 6NT, even with both opener and responder holding balanced hands. So, how crazy is it to have some system after 1NT-4NT to find these fits? I'm not sure what the standard is for non-6NT continuations after this start (maybe showing number of aces along the way?) but it seems like there is better stuff. I mean, its standard for opener to show a decent 5 or 6 card minor along the way to 6NT (e.g. 1NT-4NT-6C) but its not standard to do anything but pass or bid 6NT with e.g. 2=3=4=4 shape, where responder's failure to Stayman means there will often be a minor suit fit. A simple scheme might be 1NT-4NT: 5♠ = one minor, responder can relay with 5NT to find out which 5NT = both minors 6-suit = 5+ natural. The main worry is that opener will give opponents unnecessary information about his hand when he is likely to play 6NT anyway, e.g. 1NT-4NT-5♠ (one minor)-5NT-6♦-6NT would be a small disaster. So you could take it further and play some sort of transfer scheme so responder plays all possible 6m contracts... 1NT-4NT: 5♥ one or more 4-card minor .....-5♠ I have clubs (and possibly diamonds) ..........-5NT So do I (bid 6C) ..........-6C Only diamonds (bid 6D if you like diamonds) .....-5NT I have diamonds (not clubs), bid 6C if you do too ..........-6C So do I (bid 6D) 5NT 5+ clubs 6♣ 5+ diamonds 6NT normal This is probably crazy and unnecessary, just musing. Basically it seems like there will be a toss-up between bidding accuracy and avoiding revealing declarer's hand shape unneccesarily (and also forgetting system), but I haven't heard of anyone really doing much system in this area. edit: maybe opener should be playing the hand more often as responder has already revealed hand shape info i.e. unlikely to have 4+major?

wow, yeah give partner Kxxx spades and out... would've def bid more than 4S. 6S now for sure. edit: kinda looks like LHO has a spade void and is backing us to have the spade ace rather than his partner. so RHO might have a spade trick. still, if this is the case 6S is probably a good dive vs 6H.

Unless I'm missing something, 6NT rates to go down at least as many tricks as 6H.

lol at the doublers :) i might bid 4♥ with south at first opportunity if i was on my A game, if i missed that one i would def bid it second round (either to make or to save, bidding just got better now that they bid 3♠). if RHO bid 3♠ over 3♥, i would always bid 4♥.