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nigel_k

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Everything posted by nigel_k

  1. I don't know what is standard here, but I would have assumed either: 1. The double is for takeout, in which case it should have been much more popular than it seems to be. 2. The double is for penalties, in which case I don't understand Justin's comment 'partner will pass your double less often at imps' because he'll always pass it. Or is it something in between?
  2. Pardon? The only difference is that those of us who raised diamonds are going to play 4♥ from the strong hand. This would normally be a good thing except this time partner happens to have 19 HCP with no tenaces.
  3. I don't think there is a generic answer - you have to work each one out. In your second example above, on a spade lead the club finesse doesn't help unless you take it at trick two. If you win in hand, cash a diamond, then cross and take the club finesse you are still down if you have to lose a diamond. On a heart lead you can use the spade entry to play for restricted choice in diamonds and still have ten of diamonds as an entry for the club finesse later. If we switch the ten and five of diamonds and assume a heart lead, I think it produces the scenario you were actually asking about. In that case you can cash a second diamond and use the spade entry to finesse clubs [A] or use the entry to finesse diamonds and give up on clubs . A is better when QJ doubleton of diamonds are on your left regardless of clubs, approximately 0.4 * 1/6 * 1/2 = 0.0667 B is better when LHO has either singleton Q or singleton J and the club finesse is off, approximately 0.25 * 1/2 * 1/2 = 0.0625 So A is best. If they might falsecard from QJx it is even better.
  4. I'd bid 2♦ whether playing four card majors or not. Second choice 3♦. But 1♥ is definitely ahead of pass.
  5. A team of six (or more) for a four player game is very normal, as Tyler said. Cricket is the only team game I can think of at the moment where you can't use substitutes. As things stand now, this suggestion is mostly going to divide people into those who want sponsors in the game and those who want to force them out. If sponsors weren't an issue, I think teams of six would definitely be best. In an event lasting up to two weeks you need extras in case of illness. A reserve pair that only played in an emergency wouldn't be a great idea because it would be boring for them and there would be accusations that people weren't really ill and just wanted a rest.
  6. Hrm I have no idea what this means even though I think I know exactly what your answer would be here. I think it means the 'N' and 'H' keys are next to each other on the keyboard.
  7. 3NT. Game might not make but I think with this much we have to bid it and hope. The main issue for me is whether to bid 3NT directly or double first then bid 3NT, giving partner a chance to bid four of a major with a suitable hand. Doubling will usually be right if partner has a stiff club, plus a five card major and enough cards to make four of a major, but not enough to double for takeout initially. If partner has two or three clubs, it takes quite a precise hand for four of a major to beat 3NT, e.g. AKx KJxxx xxx xx and even then we make 3NT if they lead a club or the ace is onside. It seems to me there are more ways to lose by doubling first. Partner might bid 4♣ over the double with 4-4 in the majors which isn't likely to be good for us. We could also easily be better in 3NT when he has a five card major and they can ruff clubs or there is a bad trump break.
  8. Since it's BBO I would have expected some in 7NT by North.
  9. I think you have to bid 2♦ because 3♦ is a different hand. Thought it doesn't feel right and if it wasn't matchpoints then 3♦ and pull 3NT to 4♦ might be ok. We would be in a better position if we had raised diamonds immediately. Our current problem was easily foreseeable and bidding 1♠ could also have let opponents enter the auction too cheaply.
  10. Prefer 2♠ to 3♦. Give responder room to clarify their 2♥ bid. You would like to show support but the most likely fit is clubs and 3♦ goes past that, you might still get to bid 3♦ later, and three to the ten is not great support anyway. It could even be a negative if responder has AKxxx in diamonds and slam interest in clubs.
  11. Fred, I don't understand why you said "the 2H overcall itself causes a serious and unsolvable problem for weak notrumpers" when your 4441 example illustrates that it causes a problem for everyone. Playing weak NT I might rebid 2♠ with 15 but not more and certainly we could miss a game. But playing strong NT you will rebid 2♠ holding any weak NT with four spades and will encounter similar problems if responder is a bit stronger, e.g. 11-12 HCP and the same 3325 shape. Responder can bid more but will get too high often. And I think this is higher frequency. Overall, I still feel quite strongly that in close competitive decisions you are better off when responder knows that opener cannot have a weak balanced hand. You're also better off on the hands where open 1NT and obviously you do this more playing 12-14 than 15-17. The 'split range' that results from a 15-17 NT is good when opener gets to pass before responder acts, e.g. 1♣-P-1♥-2♠-P. But a more common situation is that there is a direct jump overcall and responder acts before opener. In these situations, knowing that opener is either stronger or more distributional than a weak NT really helps.
  12. Some thoughts: 1. There is something to be said for playing the same systems that their opponents and potential partners will be playing, but they need to be flexible. 2. I don't necessarily agree that four card majors and limit bids is more 'natural'. You end up getting into messy FSF auctions quite often. Sometimes forcing sequences allow you to have a more natural auction. 3. I don't agree that 4 card majors go with weak NT and 5 card majors go with strong NT. I prefer 5 card majors and weak NT and doing this would avoid taking a position now so they can make their minds up later. 4. Four card majors is not that good for beginners because they are reluctant to raise with three and too eager to rebid their suit with only five. When beginners try to achieve the goal of playing in a suit with 8 trumps and not less, they are more likely to have a good auction using five card majors.
  13. It definitely should be three card support whenever you can bid the fourth suit at the three level because it's important to be able to set trumps in order to investigate slams sensibly instead of those horrible auctions where only one player knows what trumps are. The only one you might consider doing differently is 1♠-2♥-3♦ because 3♠ on a doubleton may be the only way to find the right game and/or play from the right side, and you can bid 4♣ to set trumps without wasting a lot of space. But in that case you would always bid 4♣ with three spades, so you still avoid the 'might only have 2' situation because 3♠ will always be 2. Having found a 5-3 fit at the three level, it is up to you whether you use 3NT as a suggestion to play there or as Serious 3NT or something else. But I think Serious 3NT is more useful.
  14. I would finesse. Obviously it would help to know more about their defence to the strong club and how they use it as well as their aggressiveness in general, but in the end I doubt that I would play for the drop regardless. Some people might bid vulnerable with a 4432 shape and few values but surely they would often pass. At different vulnerability it would be harder.
  15. I agree with the start and think East should bid 3♣ next. He has quite a good hand for his previous bidding but West might not have a lot so I think 3♦ or 4♣ is too much. Passing the double has some appeal as well but I'm too boring for that. With West I would raise clubs, probably 4♣ is enough and East then has an obvious 5♣ bid.
  16. I like to use 2♣ as 'two places to play', one of which may be secondary support for partner's suit. This covers a lot of hand types that would leave an awkward guess if just playing natural. You do have to scramble around a bit and it may be hard to compete if they bid more, but I don't want to give up other natural bids or play something different for each opening bid which I will then have to remember.
  17. It's hard to bid really accurately using rigid rules but for a newbie I think the 5-3-1 thing is ok. However, you're right that a singleton king, for example, cannot be worth 6 points. I would suggest the following: 1. Only apply 5-3-1 when you have four card support. With only three trumps you can't do that much ruffing so 3-2-1 is enough. 2. The true value of unprotected honours depends a lot on on what partner has in the suit, but since you are going to be raising immediately with four card support you usually won't know this. Just counting the singleton honour as half it's HCP value, plus the three for the singleton, sounds about right. So five for a singleton ace, four and a half for a king and four for a queen. 3. Honours in short suits are a minus even if protected. KQ doubleton is bad but AK or AQ doubleton is quite bad as well. This is true any time, not only when raising partner. You definitely wouldn't add a point for the doubleton and may even need to subtract a little. 4. Actually more important than all of this is to understand that secondary honours (queens and jacks) are much more valuable: a. in combination with other honours; and b. opposite partner's length rather than opposite his shortage. For example, if partner opens 1♠ and you have Qxxx Axx xx KJxx then you have a perfectly sound limit raise. But with Axxx Qxx Kx Jxxx you don't. This sort of thing comes up much more often than the adjustments for short honours.
  18. How many matchpoints did you get for 6NT+1? The field may be such that you don't want to bid grand unless you are really certain of 13 tricks. But normally, with few agreements, I would want to set clubs (via 2♥ is probably safest) and then bid grand any time we have two key cards. The biggest worry is missing a good grand when we are off the ♣K.
  19. If I was West I would rather lead a spade from the queen or ten than a diamond from Jxx, and a club would be an option as well. So I would probably play West for it though it depends on West's tendencies and no doubt there are lots of people out there happily making 'passive' leads from Jxx against 6NT. I also think I might have done better to play off four diamonds forcing discards before the ♥K.
  20. I like to have the agreement that passing a redouble at 1NT and higher is always for penalty. Sometimes this leaves the redoubler's partner with an unpleasant problem but the situations are infrequent enough that it's better to have certainty about what the pass means. Without that agreement I would still pass all of these but don't feel confident about any of them.
  21. Forcing (to game, not a one round force). The frequency and importance of hands where you need to investigate slam or the best game far exceeds the times when you might prefer to play 3♦ instead of 2NT.
  22. It seems like a pretty good slam. Without a club lead and continuation there will usually be a squeeze whenever ♦Q is onside though you may have to read the position. Plus 3-3 spades and some extra diamond chances as Justin said. In the bidding I think East is a bit good for a quantitative 4NT unless you open routinely with balanced 11s in which case West has an accept. So I would probably blast slam with East at some point.
  23. 1. 7♣. It just doesn't seem that likely to me they will go down at the six level. 2. Pass.
  24. I'm not 100% sure about this but I would say: 1. You should usually give preference with a doubleton honour but try to find some other call with a small doubleton. 2. You can raise the minor without much extra if you have the sort of cards that suggest playing the minor instead of NT, e.g. xxx xx QJxx Axxx. But if you have something like Qxx xx Jxxx KJxx then don't go past 3NT as 11 tricks will often be too many. 3. Normally 3♠ would show a stop. But here it's likely that responder will have club length and the key issue will be the spade stopper. So maybe 3♠ should deny a stop or show a partial stop at best. 4. 4♣ is natural with a six card or longer suit. 5. A jump to 4♥ should be three card support and minimum, i.e. a hand too weak for a constructive raise. If you have a limit raise, you have to bid 3♥ and catch up later. 6. Same as 3 above. Whatever it shows it should still be looking for the right game, not a cue bid.
  25. Looks like I carelessly missed out a couple of chances. It should be: 006 0.00158 succeed 1/3 of the time 015 0.03077 succeed 1/3 * (1 + 1/6 + 1/6) 024 0.10257 succeed 1/3 * (1 + 1/3 + 1/3) 033 0.07521 succeed 1/3 * (1/2 + 1/2) 114 0.11111 succeed 1/3 * (1 + 1/3 + 1/3) 123 0.53333 succeed 1/3 * (1 + 1/2 + 1/2) 222 0.14545 succeed always Therefore probability of success is 0.00053 + 0.01368 + 0.05698 + 0.02507 + 0.06172 + 0.35555 + 0.14545 = 0.65898 So vuroth and I did get the same answer (after Wayne corrected both of our mistakes). Where I have said, for example, 015 has a success rate of 1/3 * (1 + 1/6 + 1/6) that means we succeed always when partner has 5, 1/6 when partner has 1 and 1/6 when partner has zero.
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