cherdanno

I think 3S shows......spades! (3 of them) I admit you might have to fake it occasionally with 5422 and no club stopper, but it's certainly neither a cue for hearts nor showing a hand without a club stopper.

I think you are misevaluating this hand. Or you are playing very light reverses.

Because his partner did not show slam interest?

You are ahead 32 with 24 boards left in a KO match. That's a good lead, but nothing dramatic either. Just keep playing better bridge than them. Definitely don't go more conservative than you would normally play. Imagine you are trailing, and bidding a close game. Don't you wish for the other table to stay in partscore? OTOH, don't go crazy trying to copy the other table. When you are trailing, and bidding an anti-percentage slam, aren't you hoping that the other table bids it too (so it's a push in case it's a no play slam), and then you can gain 17 IMPs on getting the right lead? So yeah play normal bridge.

I agree with all of this.

It seems this partnership was playing spiral scan. Here asker is usually in control, and he is free to keep asking if, say, he knows one keycard is missing but he would like to decide between 6S and 6NT. Of course, it doesn't really help your cause to mention a non-existing 5NT bid either :) Anyway, the key mistake was obviously 4NT (ESPECIALLY if playing spiral scan in the style I am assuming).

He still wouldn't double as his GIB partner would pull!

Against preempts, tempo is crucial! Tempo is crucial when declarer can pitch losers in one of his short suit on dummy's winners in his other short suit. When he preempts, he often has 2 fairly short suits! In fact some like to lead aces against preempts for that reason. This is much more of a concern than giving him a free heart finesse IMO.

Pass over 5♥.

I also get 44.3% as a probability, using Thomas Andrews' deal.

RHO has a balanced hand with 12-14 hcp. We have 9 spades and 19 hcp. How high do you think are the chances that both LHO and partner will pass out 1NT doubled?

Where do you get the 46.5 % from?

Opener almost never has a hand to bid 5♥ on his own. If you pass, he will raise to 4♥, and then responder can bid 5♥ later if that looks right opposite known support. (Yes opener can make a forcing pass over our 4♠ bid, but in your sequence he can show support and make a forcing pass, or he can show support and double in case partner has a really bad suit and opener has spade wastage, etc.

No it is easy to say "sorry you misread". In fact, let me say so now: Sorry, you misread. I know because I sometimes have to check, not whether a balancing 2NT is natural (obviously it is), but which point range it is.

Indeed they let us play there opposite my Ax KQxx AJxxx xx.

This is the single worst habit of GIB IMO: [hv=d=e&v=b&s=st9ha9842dk9754cq]133|100|Scoring: IMP (P) P (1♣) 1♦ (1♠) P!! [/hv] It then took all its courage and competed to 3♦ over LHO's 2♠ raise.

Vienna Coup! (Cash ♥A then spades.)

I would rather play an event that gives me a high probability of playing other good opponents, than playing an event that gives me a good chance of winning. I agree that IMP swiss pairs sounds a bit too random anyway - but if I read the OP right the event in question is a matchpointed swiss pairs.

For me it shows exactly three. I guess with Qxx J9xx KJx KQJ I might lie and bid 1H anyway.

For 2♥ I would assume a strong one-suited hand, probably with running diamonds and a stop in hearts. For double, I would assume a strong hand with takeout shape. Clearly double describes your shape better, and also allows for an easier stop if partner has truly nothing (I assume 2♥ is GF). On your auction, after 3♣ I find it obvious to raise, as we have much better clubs than promised, and play for 5♣ opposite xxx xxx xx Jxxxx.

East had an entirely normal hand for an entirely normal bid (a takeout double). There is no excuse for 5♦. Pass by West was very wrong IMHO but I could see strong players passing this hand with the intent of guessing what to bid later. So it's misguided but I would never conclude from this one bid that West was a beginner. So West 80%, East 200%.

2+5+2+3 = 12

If you only bid 4♣ at your first turn, I assume you do so with the intention of showing your spade suit later. I think you should follow through on this auction.

Maybe youtube works? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9sfVHd1D-gU

On the same topic (only funny if you have heard about Rahm Emanuel, Obama's chief of staff): http://www.nbc.com/saturday-night-live/vid...manuel/1199682/