JLOL

I ask for my thirteenth card. If it's a heart or a spade or a double is pretty easy, if it's a club I would probably bid 5C.

1) Regarding the argument of the VP to IMP relation I will just echo helene, assuming no state of the match considerations if you are playing to maximize your imp expectation you are very likely maximizing your VP expectation. Han has volunteered to do some calculations on this, but I will just say that I definitely agree with Helene and not Mike about this. 2) Regarding "you will not reach the long run in a match so don't take the risk," that just makes no sense. That's like saying don't bid a 40 % vul game in z short imp match because you may only bid 1 vul game, and you will be going down more often than you make! Of course you still do the right thing over and over again even though you may get unlucky in a short match and lose; you are still increasing your chance to win. You are going to win 1 imp so often that even if you only get this chance once in your entire life it's a good one to take. The only way this is not true is if the 1 imp is worthless which just goes back to argument 1. 3) Regarding never playing on a team with someone who will risk their contract for an overtrick, the people you describe seem to not be making the right assumptions about when it is right to go for it, or are the most unlucky people ever. They are clearly making some errors in their calculations if they are going down with any frequency in cold games, for instance on this hand given the bidding I think it would be definitely wrong to go for it. If your point is that most people who do this stuff do it in the wrong situations because they are not making good bridge assumptions then fine, but personally I would never want to play on a team with someone who blew an overtrick for no good reason. Honestly I don't understand why instead of trying to make the right play we are ever thinking about things like "ZOMG MY TEAMMATES MIGHT BE MAD!" or "OMG I WOULD FEEL SAD IF I WENT DOWN." It seems to be part of your thought process routinely what your teammates or partner will think, and what you would think if your teammate did this. In my opinion this is not a great way to play bridge.

Yeah we did play some pretty ridiculous stuff over it, but if I were trying to make it less complex and easier to remember I think it could be done with that basic structure (but less effectively). I know Meike/Marion play 1C p 1N as a GF relay if you are into relays, but obviously that would be pretty complicated too.

Hey I said it before gnasher! Josh will never give me the satisfaction :(

Definitely worried about missing 7 but I don't see how to try so I would bid 6D. I wish 5S were a cue but obviously it's not. Also I do not worry about the times partner has KQx xx KJT9xx xx, that hand will occur very very rarely compared to the times partner has a stiff/void/ace of hearts

I like 2 also, even 3 could be a bloodbath and we have enough random D that they may not have a game.

Agree with Jdonn, it is pretty much never my style to open 4M in first or second seat with a really strong hand, I would always open 1 to try to avoid missing slam. So that rules out mikeh's option 1 for me as a possibility.

Adam, obviously the DK is correct at trick 2 but when partner plays the 2 running 4 diamonds is not an option anymore. I think at that point (at imps) vs a bad/random opp whose bidding we cannot trust leading a spade back is probably better. Against anyone reasonable though I would def cash out.

Would have bid 5D the first time, would have bid 5D the 2nd time, would bid 5D now. I would say that trying to play clubs is a big error.

I think it's pretty reasonable. If you don't have strict rules about 2C p 2D showing a control or something I would have bid that, but 2H can't be argued with (especially if it's forced systemically). I think you have a lot of 5 level safety and a lot of slam potential after 3H and 4H does not adequately describe your hand so I like the bid, and give you marks for being creative.

Frances, I have seen hands like that and also think it is right to make the play that doesn't give you the best play to make to save a few vul undertricks when you're going down if the lines aren't too far apart. These situations are rare, and in my experience most very good players will just make the best line to make and say something like Nick Sandqvist said. Honestly most great players are not great at thinking about the math of the game even in the abstract, they don't know most suit combinations (or even how to figure them out in a timely manner at the table), and probably have generally flawed thought processes about areas like these. The truth is that these situations are marginal at best anyways, and saving a very few % here or there in rare spots or adding to your expected imp total by a very small amount in these overtrick/less undertrick spots which are also pretty rare doesn't end up is not that important compared to other areas where these great players will kill everyone else. I do think it's a very common leak though.

LOL

Uhh partner wants to bid at the 5 level all by himself and this is my hand. I expect both sides to make sometimes, and neither side to make very rarely.

LOL It seems that you haven't heard of the idea of adding points for shortness yet.

White/red I would open that with 3D, and other vulnerabilities I would pass (though could see some conditions where I'd do it w/w, wouldn't be my normal action).

pitch a DIAMOND, lead heart to ace, spade ruff, heart to king, spade ruff, pull trumps pitch AK of diamonds on the heart and spade. This caters to 40 hearts and 50 diamonds.

Partner wants to bid 5H but doesn't want to bid in front of you. I would bid 5H.

4S

Hmm, maybe you also check. I do not see any intricateness. Anyway please count me as an amateur who derives satisfaction "trying" to solve double dummy problems in long years. Obviously you don't have to duck a club lead when spades are 3-3. I meant what is the right play single dummy. Imagine if spades were 4-2... Anyway it's not clear since they can switch to hearts and you risk being tapped there too. But I still think its the right play, you can duck the first heart as well and hope two rounds of diamonds stand up for a crossruff. I think. The opps could shift to a heart at trick 2 if spades are 42. If they are always defending correctly then the "best" line is a simple ace of clubs, club ruff, ten of spades, spade. You make now on 33 spades or 44 clubs and 42 spades.

Even if partner does not think XX showed values then Xing this is not too bright, I am repeating myself but the opps have bid 3N! They opened, they doubled 1N, and then they got to 3N. Why do you think they are doing this if they have 18 HCP? Even if they have just gone completely insane and forgotten that you would like more than half the deck to play 3N, you are already doing great anyways and aren't gaining much with a double. More likely the opps know what they have in their hands.

Yes, especially defending 1N at imps people give up overtricks as both defender and declarer way too often, sometimes even 2 overtricks. It is pretty silly to let them make 150 instead of 90 hoping for some obscure layout.

Matt, I think 5 VPs for 12 imps is too high an average. If you were already up 2 big swings or down a big swing (or down 2 big swings) it probably will only cost 3 VPs. I have no idea how to calculate how many VPs 12 imps will usually translate into vs how many VPs 1 imp will usually translate into, but my experience suggests that winning 1 imp is probably even more valuable in VP20 than in some knockout match. Hopefully Richard or someone can do a simulation to show this relationship. Probably it is pretty close either way to the imp odds. Pretty much the only thing that I have agreed with Mikeh about has been that sometimes your upside is not even an imp because something weird has happened at the other table. I think it is complete nonsense that "psychologically you cannot afford to go for it" because "your teammates will be mad, but they won't be mad if you lose 1 on an overtrick." It also should be complete nonsense that you will feel so bad if you go down that the upside isn't worth it. Your decisions should always be based on doing what is right, and making the best bridge decision, if your teammates or partner or even your own mind are hindering you from making what you think is the best bridge decision because of these extraneous irrational things then that is too bad, they are bad teammates. And if you personally make a good long term decision you are accepting the risk, so it is dumb to be upset when that risk becomes a reality. It is also fallacious to say that "bridge tournaments are rarely decided by 1 VP, they are decided by the big swings." Well what if you win 5 VPs this way throughout the course of the tournament? Bridge tournaments are won by making good long term decisions in every possible situation. If the math shows that you are making a good decision then you will be winning more bridge tournaments by making it. It is just that simple. The only way this becomes untrue is if you are some kind of prohibitive favorite to win the event because you're so much better than everyone that you can afford to sacrifice some equity in these spots to avoid disaster. These situations rarely, if ever, come up. I find it really remarkable that the solution to the problem of irrational thinking and risk aversion and being psychologically weak is to make worse plays rather than to try and work on this destructive thought process. So Frances, to answer your question if those numbers were correct then yes I think the person played the right way. He even overlooked the chance of making 2 overtricks when someone has JTx of diamonds ;) On the actual hand I think his play was definitely quite poor however because the clubs are much more likely to be 40 than the a priori percentages suggest given that they were bidding with nothing. This seems like a poor bridge decision.

This thread is just so LOL... we announced that we could make 1N XXed and the opps then bid 3N and partner has passed... we are not fielding a psyche when we pass we are just being bridge players jeez.

lol of course there is no hand you would double this auction on, partner has clearly psyched so you shouldn't be doubling unless you have them set in your own hand. There are not 60 HCP in the deck.

Agree I think the east hand is worth 3D.