wank

but west is somewhat more likely to have 4+ and therefore more likely to have the queen - 2 extra vacant spaces if diamonds are 5-2 which is the most likely relevant break. of course diamonds might break more extremely than 5-2 in which east is the one with more vacant spaces.

you're almost 100%. the j of spades is an illusion. just cash dummy's stuff discarding a spade then run south's winners. they're double squeezed unless west is 55 in the reds. edit: oh you can ignore that. i just assumed south was declarer. no communications for a double squeeze when east has the hearts. as it is, you absolutely must play for the diamond break in one manner or other. it's just a question of which [large] extra chances you go for. option 1) you leave the hearts in dummy as communication so you get the benefit of the q of s dropping in 2, which is no small chance, and east being squeezed in spades (vienna coup) and hearts or even hearts and diamonds. option 2) the alternative of throwing a spade on your hearts early and then trying to squeeze west out of 4 spades (or qt9 stiff) and a diamond guard seems crap in comparison, though i make no claim to bridge mathematical ability. west is favourite to hold the spade length (not such a huge favourite once you assume he has long diamonds), but this line loses the benefit of dropping his qx, which i would guess tips the balance.

is there any fence you'd refuse to sit on?

there are too many points missing for this to get passed out often - 24 or so between LHO and partner. either LHO is raising anyway (ignoring the fact he had an obvious raise with his actual hand) or partner's acting again. the only time this isn't true is when partner's doubled on a balanced hand and values in which case we probably don't want to be bidding.

akxxx is not a very good holding for this sort of thing. the problem is you don't want partner to take you seriously and actually raise to 4 and you might even get slaughtered at a low level. you will often have 2 defensive tricks with the AK, you have millions of losers, including potentially slow losers in your suit. basically, your offense to defense ration is bad. something like kqt9x is a much better 3rd in hand joke pre-empt. 1S is better imo - you still get the spade lead, you're modestly pre-empting them, and your defensive potential is more inline to what p would expect.

raising to 3 is pathetic imo

east doesn't have his 2♠ bid. if west is unable to act again, you know you're outgunned and aren't aren't going to make anything. your defensive potential is fine with a likely trump trick, a singleton, and a long trump for ruffing. of course if west does act again you'd be delighted to bid spades and if necessary bid them again at the3 level to compete the part score.

yes 15-17. obviously not balanced, but well stopped in the 4th suit and 5134. playing fast arrival here is stupid. you need a way to show extra values in 2/1, and this is the way if you're lucky enough to be dealt the right shape. edit: 4135 like aqua points out

you're already in a game force so you don't need it as a prelude to a slam try. it should be either a big 2 suiter 65 or more or looking for a diamond stop for NTs (which doesn't necessarily mean it's also denying a stop). if you repeat diamonds it's the former, otherwise it's the latter.

obviously partner doesn't have that hand because he opened 1nt.

because you can lose the heart fit if responder jumps to 3nt on the 2nd round to share extras? of course you risk losing the diamond fit instead if you rebid 2h, but that's normally considered to be less of an issue.

then you should be willing to take further action and punish them if they guess wrong. smack 3h or a scramble 2nt safely and, more debatably, blue 2sx.

you need to say where you're from. each country has its own quirky little regulations, however, i go 7-1 that your opponent didn't pull this regulation from up his bottom.

assuming what you say is true, that would only imply we should be more ethically influenced towards passing 5c in the pass-out seat. as partner still has a call during the actual auction, the situation's totally different. by passing which imo is by far the best call, we're giving partner the full set of options, beit to push on or double or just sell out.

it doesn't prove much, but it implies the odds aren't in favour of making 6.

i don't think anyone would seriously consider anything other than pass, unless they were in a forcing pass situation, which would be a little odd. still, that doesn't mean i agree with what you said in the other thread.

if the slowness of the 4h suggests anything, it suggests defending. north-south are trying to have the hesitator shot.

forcing to 6 is tripping imo. far too likely to be off a slow minor loser with nowhere to park it plus the ace of hearts, vul partner or no vul partner. as we don't know which minor to bid and might even go off in 5 from p's hand, i'll content myself with floating the double. there's a good chance dummy will be dead and we'll make our k of h.

edit: ignore

the convention she's referring to is far from necessary and anyway only applies once you've found a fit. here you've not shown any fit. a more usual, and entirely useful, meaning for double here would be penalty. the difference is that once you've found a fit it's rarely worth it to stop and take penalties, plus it reduces the chances of actually having a hand suitable for a penalty double - points in spades are of dubious value defensively, etc. one of the earlier posters had it right - if you have a hand which was going to invite opposite a potential minimum balanced hand, once partner shows an extra spade you can just punt game. as such 3S is just competitive.

so basically north forgot to double 3♥ and this thread is trying to transfer some of the blame for that onto south.

noone's complaining about bidding michael's on this hand. they're just surprised that anyone would actually have that agreement available. i presume you were playing against chimps who never play against multi.

5♥ - must be a cue. can't be suggesting a new suit at the 5 level after being unable to bid at the 4 level. the 4d bid massively improves your hand. now you know the qx of clubs is a great holding.

i foolishly didn't write out the hand with the crucial pips in it. the JT should be doubleton in dummy so you can play them yourself and indeed the 9 should be in declarer's hand (i was given it with the 9 in the leader's hand too tbf) so the queen lead sets up 2 tricks, which i suppose slightly reduces the temptation to lead it. hand 2 here: http://www.zbk.hr/T2013/3f1.pdf

3 rounds of spades ending in hand