fromageGB

When the early voting results were coming in, I was thinking that if Sunderland was going to leave the EU I might have to move to Sunderland. Thank God I now don't have to. :)

Interestingly the ONLY region in the whole of England and Wales that voted for remain was London. ALL the rest of the country's regions voted to leave. Londoners have I suppose seen their house prices increase with all the immigration, and a good proportion of them work for financial institutions and other parasites. The rest of the country has suffered, with jobs, housing, social services going to immigrants, and the EU is intent on the suffering increasing. When Cameron said he was going to make the North-East the powerhouse of England, perhaps he meant the poorhouse. Scotland and northern Ireland voted to remain, but now England is leaving perhaps their independence parties will get more active.

It went very well, but the Labour leader has said the voters' decision should be respected and he will work to achieve it. Perhaps it's about time he stood up for his beliefs and changed the parliamentary party's policies to be more in line with its key voters - who overwhelmingly are in favour of leaving the EU and abandoning nuclear weapons. I expect the blairites will call for a change of leadership, but I hope the party calls for a change of parliamentarians.

This is the bit I have trouble with. I will allow that the 2 or 3 could be played from the 32, and I think my calculation method has gone wrong is saying LHO played "low" rather than a specific card, when I am looking at specific cards in my calculation of hand numbers. Going back to my original post where I said LHO plays low, let me revise that to LHO plays the 2. Specifically the 2. 11 hands of 3-0 all remain in the pot. The finesse works on all these. 11 hands of 0-3 ruled out. 26 hands remain of the original 39 that split 2-1. The finesse works on 50% of them. 13 hands of 1-2 remain of the original 39. The finesse fails on all. The pot of hands that are still possible holds 11+26+13 = 50 hands. The finesse works on 11+13+0 = 24 out of 50, or 48%. So this is not my original 40%, and funnily enough this 48% is the same as given by the simple vacant spaces method. It is also the same as the 37/76 that you quote, and I am happy to accept it as identical, given rounded distribution percentages.

Garage itself is interesting. Is it gaRAHJ to rhyme with Farage, GArahj, or is it GAridge? I must confess to using all three.

My British English may be dated, but it is conTROVersy for me.

I think you might have this wrong. Many of us do not want a Norway model, and are convinced that UK will be able to trade quite happily independently. The EU has been a steadily declining part of our trade, and as one of the bigger economies I can't see much difficulty in continuing to buy goods from anywhere, and selling what little we do. But it does not look like it is going to happen. Stock market manipulators have pushed the FTSE up 5% over the last few days as short sellers have cancelled their bets. Incidentally, this is another failure of the EU: they years ago planned to introduce a share trading transaction tax but haven't the balls to implement it. The vast majority of share trades are automatic, programs buying and selling for tiny gains, and a tax would stop that. Share prices are not moved by you and me (or pension funds etc) investing or withdrawing, but by gambling. Apparently when Tobin tax was tried in Sweden, bond trading fell by 85%. Sorry, it should be pet peeve thread. A bigger peeve is people selling shares they don't own, and the EU hasn't even looked at that.

This must be wrong. I can envisage a break of LHO = x, and RHO = Kx. The finesse will not work. The drop will not work. 2/3 + 1/3 = 1, so it cannot be 2/3 and 1/3. Before any card has been played, the chances of RHO=Kx are 26/100, and my calculation says after LHO follows low it is 26/76, = 34%. This ties in with my figure of finesse 40%, drop 26%, neither 34%, but the calculation method may be wrong. Help needed ...

Thanks Stephen, but I am interested in how you derive this from probabilities. Care to make a derivation? My calculation says 40%, not 67%, (and not 48%). We are not talking of likelihood before a card has been played, but the likelihood after LHO has followed low. Any statisticians/mathematicians to the rescue?

Yes. For one hand you deal 4 cards in a "round", 13 times. If the K and the x were dealt in the same round, they cannot be in the same hand. If they were dealt in different rounds, they could be. This argument implies 12 rounds of 50:50 and one which is split only, so the conclusion to be drawn - if you wish to draw one - is that the odds favour an even split of the 2 cards missing in your suit.

To demonstrate my confusion, and hoping for clarification, consider the 3 missing cards scenario. You are missing the K and two small, and lead towards the AQ, with LHO following low. What are the odds now of the finesse working? Probability says 100 deals are split (LHO-RHO) : 11 hands are 3-0, all remain in the pot when LHO follows. 11 hands are 0-3 and are ruled out as LHO follows. 39 hands are 2-1, and all remain the the pot. 39 hands are 1-2, but 13 of these are ruled out as LHO followed low, so 26 remain in the pot. The pot considered now holds 11+39+26 = 76 hands. Of these, the finesse works on all 11, plus 50% of 39, plus 0% of 26 = 30.5 hands. So the odds of the finesse working is 30.5/76 = 40%. Of the 76 hands, the drop works on 0% of 11, plus 50% of 39, plus 0% of 26 = 19.5 hands. So the odds of the drop are 19.5/76 = 26% By vacant spaces, LHO has 12 spaces for the K, and RHO 13, so the odds of the finesse working is 48%. OK, the finesse works 40% of the time, or it works 48% of the time. Or neither of these ? Edit - the haze is developing into a deep fog.

This seems overly complicated. You say the "chances of the other card (K) being with RHO is 13(slots)/25", so why are the odds on dropping the King not simply 13/25 = 52%? Do you need those last two sentences? If you don't like the vacant spaces idea, and I don't really understand it (see next post), you can look at the odds of the finesse working, as long as LHO has followed low, by 1eyedjack's first post first paragraph : 100 deals, which for 2 missing cards, probability says are split (LHO-RHO) : 24 hands are 2-0, all these remain in the pot when LHO follows. 26 hands are K-x, but these are ruled out as LHO followed low. 26 hands are x-K and remain in the pot. 24 hands are 0-2, but are ruled out when LHO follows. Once LHO follows, we have 24+26 = 50 deals remaining in the pot. Of these, finesse works 24 times, and drop 26 times. There is a 26/50 = 52% chance of the drop working. Is this calculation the right way to do it? It's an area I am a bit hazy on.

This is murky water. Weak bids of 2♠ and 3♠ after a start of 1♥ 1fNT have no meaning for me, and are risky. With a weak opener of both majors 55 or longer I would open 1♠ to rebid 2♥, but hearts then spades might put the only safe contract beyond reach. I think it should be reserved for some strong hand, where taking it out of your Gazzilli 2♣ gives additional definition. That depends on your Gazzilli follow-ups. I use 1♠ 1fNT 3♥ as specifically 55xx and strong but limited - the bottom 2 hcp of your Gazzilli strength. 1♥ 1fNT 2♠ could for example be 16/17 and 56xx.

Shyams made some very good points, and it is the political construct that is driving many of us away from wishing to be in the EU. Lack of local accountability and control is the biggest issue, as Dave said in the start of his rant. However, the "powerful and effective bureaucracy" is not good, but bad. It takes the concept of "you can have too much of a good thing" to extremes, and it does not stop growing. It needs cutting back. It is also not particularly effective : take the case of emission standards that Shyams raised. The standards are not enforced, and as the Volkswagen diesels have shown, there is no concern or care for EU citizens. Where is the redress for us, that is being offered to deceived purchasers in the USA? GM foods is an issue on which opinions divide, and while I would certainly not feed my rats on GM maize saturated in weedkiller, I can easily see the benefits of GM. That should not be of supranational concern. There are far too many areas where the EU interferes unwantedly, and those concerns are growing. I bought a hairdryer recently because I wanted a more powerful one than the EU will shortly allow. The EU does have its good points, but the balance has tipped too far. The main aim of the EU still is "ever closer union". Some of us want out. (English, resident, and voted.)

My choice is to play Kaplan inversion, so on this hand the bidding goes 1♥ 1♠, and 2♦ from me showing a 4 card spade suit in case responder also has 4 (he bids 1NT with 5). Playing without Kaplan inversion, I would bid 1♥ 1NT, 2♦ denying 6 hearts and denying a 16 count. Partner will only pass if his diamonds are about 4 cards longer than hearts, and 2♥ is the default bid if he is weak. If you are worried about coming unstuck with a singleton diamond you may choose to agree that a 2♥ opener rebid is either 6 card, or 5 with a diamond shortage. This is not necessarily a bad idea; if a strong partner does bid 4♥ on a doubleton, and has nothing useful in diamonds, you control diamonds and can probably draw sufficient rounds of trumps before you get one of your side suits working.

Maybe you should triple check? Or perhaps "many years" and "long since over" have changed their meaning? Dec 2014 - daily telegraph : David Cameron has said that he still “very much supports” Turkey joining the European Union, despite his Government's inability to control numbers of EU migrants coming to the UK. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/david-cameron/11283924/David-Cameron-I-still-want-Turkey-to-join-EU-despite-migrant-fears.html Oct 2015 - House of commons : I can confirm to my Right Honourable Friend that the British government’s policy hasn’t changed and he’s absolutely right in what he says about the importance of helping Turkey [become an EU member state]. 2016 after seeing the strength of anti-EU referendum sentiment he seems to change his mind.

Sure? There is a good chance an artificial double means both majors! Ask first. Natural double is more likely with a weak NT, and then for a regular partnership it is necessary to have an agreed escape route (as others have said) where 2♣ will be part of that. With a random partner, assume 2♣ = clubs.

I agree with the "downright misleading positions" comment, but far more of those are taken by the remain campaign. The lying PM will be out of a job probably before the next parliamentary election. Incidentally, I believe he was strongly in favour of Turkey joining the EU. Greece joined without fulfilling the nominal entry conditions, and Turkey will too.

Well, maybe you should believe some things. The speech you refer to was a couple of weeks ago, in which he sensibly said that "we failed to notice that ordinary people, the citizens of Europe, do not share our Euro-enthusiasm.” The recent extract is from an interview with the German Bild yesterday, and he said "En tant qu'historien, je crains que cela ne constitue en fait le début du processus de destruction non seulement de l'UE, mais aussi de la civilisation politique occidentale.“ While my German is rusty, this looks pretty much like French to me, and he thinks the end of civilisation is nigh.

European Council president Donald Tusk claimed Brexit could trigger the end of ‘Western political civilisation’ Wow, Cameron on steroids. Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt was how IBM ruled the waves in past eras, but "remain" adopts it in spades.

Talking about the decline and disintegration of the EU, this is an interesting report : http://www.pewglobal.org/2016/06/07/euroskepticism-beyond-brexit/ Scroll down to the second and third images. Not surprisingly the Poles favour the EU, but I am surprised they found sufficient numbers remaining there to conduct a poll. Nevertheless, you can see the increasing general feeling in the EU that it is going to the dogs.

I like this one - reflection of the England football team : http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/matt// 9th June, if you are looking at a later date.

If playing forcing NT you don't have to bid a 3 card minor. With 13-15 just bid 1NT and wait to see what opener rebids. You will not miss a heart game. To show the 3433 when 16+, play that 2♣ is any one of ... - 5+ clubs and 13+ hcp - 3 spades and 11+ - 16+ balanced Now opener's almost compulsory 2♦ asks, and ... - 2♥ = 4 hearts and 16+hcp Great for distinguishing responder's strengths, with plenty of room for developments.

2/1 and Gazzilli South's hand is awkward to describe, and you definitely want to show those suits. I would not object to treating it with 2♥ GF then rebidding diamonds. However, if you start with 1NT it could go : 1♠ - 1NT! 2♣ (Gazzilli) - 2♦ (any 8+) and from here it depends on your Gazzilli. If 17+ ... 2NT - 3♥ (must be 5 because opener would have bid hearts with 4) 4♣ (cue agreeing hearts, as he failed to bid 3♣ earlier) - 4♠ (ace ask in hearts) 4NT (0+Q, or 1, or 3-Q) - 5♦ (do you have 3? Interested in slam in spite of the lack of Q because of the prospects of disposing possible club loser on spades) 5♠ (yes, I do have 3, and this is my cheapest K) - 6♥ Edit - this assumes you are not playing transfers to a Gazzilli sequence 2NT (I don't). If you were, adjust accordingly.

The EU is destabilised and irretrievably failing already. I don't think Brexit will make much difference to that, and the referendum is really about who wants to be a rat, and who wants to stand with the captain on the bridge.