xcurt

Do you mean including all of the spot cards? In one case (Lew, who really has an incredible memory for bridge hands - I remember a time when he was playing with someone with whom he'd only played a few times several years earlier and some auction came up and after the hand he said "the last time we had this auction you had ... (quoting the exact hand from the previous time)."), yes, he'd include all the spots. In the other case, Kit, no - in fact, I was discussing this with him and he vehemently denied that he could reconstruct the hands, until I said I didn't mean every spot card. :) Back when I lived in SF I played a 32 board GNT match against Kit and Sally Woolsey. Kit had a kibitzer, maybe someone from his day job at the option exchange. Before we shuffled up and dealt Kit took out a pack and started turning over cards and told the kib something like "If you can tell me all 52 cards in order, you are ready to play this game" or something like that. Anyone who is familiar with de Groot's work with chess players knows this is just insane for 99% of us, and more proof that "Kit Woolsey" is actually a bridge playing robot.

How can you be happy just bidding 3D with such a powerhouse, especially when it now looks like partner has a stiff spade and RHO has a weak hand with 3 spades? RHO might have a 2-card preference to 2♠ and not enough to bid 2NT invitational. I'd take the chance to bid 2♠.

I would not double. I've learned that when good opponents conduct blunt auctions like this it's usually because opener has a void in responder's suit so he can't splinter or bid exclusion. A spade lead might even let them make it if declarer has void, Ax, whatever, we have some other deep trick, and they can ruff out the ♠AK to pitch the heart loser.

I could make 3NT opposite as little as J9xx, Kxxx, Qxx, xx if everything sits well so I have to do more than just bid 3C right now. I think 2S is clear. I don't think 2S necessarily promises a spade stop since there is a lot of room between where we are now and 3NT.

I posted some stats on winning margins in the other thread. In rough terms the top 20 teams in the Spingold were about 0.5 IMPs per board better than their opponents. This is approximate because there were a few top seeds out from Day 1 and Day 2. That's 8 IMPs per segment, or roughly one swing -- a little more than a partscore swing, a little less than a game swing -- per segment. I think that's largely, but probably not completely a function of the fact that the full-time professionals play bridge all the time, and bridge is probably like most every other competitive endeavor where erosion of skill happens very quickly with inactivity.

Re the relative strength of "top" teams vs the next tier of teams: In the round of 32, the higher original seed averaged about +0.5 IMPs/bd In the round of 16, the higher original seed averaged about +0.2 IMPs/bd In the round of 8, the higher original seed averaged about +0.3 IMPs/bd In the round of 4, both winners were originally the lower seed. Looking at the rosters, about the top 20 seeds have players with significant international experience (plus a few outliers like Brink/Drijver, who haven't been around long enough to rack up that many SPs). Generally this says to me that you really want to be in the top 12 so you play one of the 21-32 seeds in the round of 32.

How many HCP do you think partner has? If dummy has the ♠9 (3:4 against if 5 spades to HH in dummy, and there's also the chance of the ♠9 in declarer's hand and the ♠8 in dummy) and they have 5 diamond tricks and the ♥AK that's 12 tricks. If dummy has a 6-card spade suit and they have even 4 diamond tricks you're also going to get squeezed. Unless partner has ♥Txx and can figure out to keep all of them.

You can get away with this plan if the suit you pretend to have is lower-ranking than the one you actually have.

You are so ripe for a squeeze on this hand. CA.

LHO could have led TxxX or even 9xxX, or if he's known to be devious xxxX. Of course he might also be playing a deep game with QxxxxX. So it's a little more likely, but not much, than the original 4:3 that LHO has the SQ. If the SJ wins at T1 and we guess the club we're making 6, but we can always make 6 on the same finesse later and we preserve the option to play for something else if we want to. If the SJ loses we probably are going to lose the board. If the SJ wins and we misguess the club, we transpose to lines like the one I mentioned before. There are a lot of unknowns on this hand including Is the SQ onside Is the HJ 4th or longer and where? Where is the DQ? Where is the CJ? Is the CA doubleton or shorter? We know a little something about the first and nothing about the others, so I don't want to risk the whole board right now.

Doesn't RC mean LHO is more likely to have the key honor since he led 4th from a bad suit? My choice is SA, HQK, then run the C9. I don't think we're necessarily behind on the hand right now. Even a diamond lead from Q-length doesn't help that much because our entries are so screwed up. Hooking the spade at T1 is really bad. BTW if it goes Sx-A-x-x C8-x-x-J Sx-J-x-x we're still going to need a successful diamond finesse or a squeeze to make 5. I guess the play would go T4-5: drive CA T6: they clear spades T7: diamond to hand T8: HK T9: club T10: club and pitch ? Then HK, HQ->A and hopefully you guessed successfully which major suit threat to pitch on the last club.

This pack has two aces of diamonds, but facing KQJxxx and out it seems though layouts that give us a shot at -300 would also give us a shot at beating their game. And now I know to underlead at trick 1 to get a black suit switch from partner's side. I hate the OP agreement though. Doubling a splinter should ask for the higher (or lower if you prefer) side suit lead by agreement.

But they are going to be in game whenever partner has 15 or 16 (1N-3N) OR has 5 spades (1S-1N; 2m-3S; 4S-P). It's about 50:50 if partner has 15 or 16, and when he has 14 it's something like 2:1 against (don't hold me to this number I'm too lazy to calculate it right now) he has 5 spades. So you're comparing with a game contract 2/3 of the time. I don't know the blended rate of games making, but when partner has a 4xxx minimum the field will be in 3m or defending hearts. If they're in 3m and we can't make 3♠ we're at best tying the board (and might be losing it, since 3m looks like it has a shot for 130) so this situation is the reverse of the usual situation where we Stayman over 1NT with a bad invite and catch a fit and now we're ahead of the pairs who checked 1NT. In that situation we have positive matchpoint equity so we should be taking our AVG+ to the bank. Here we're looking at AVG-- in 2S (we only win if partner has a strong NT AND we can't make game, we lose if partner has a strong NT and game makes OR partner has spades and game makes), so we should keep bidding. We also get a little vigorish that partner can go back to NT with, say, Kxxx, AQTx, Qx, KJx and we just deterred the spade lead.

I'll pass and lead the ♥K. This gains when we need to shift at T2, and if they have any secondary heart cards the most likely position to protect ls LHO Jxx, RHO Q or so. I would double them if they were vulnerable, the IMP odds are a little better, since I highly doubt they can redouble or make any overtricks, and if they were vulnerable there's a slightly greater chance they are stretching to game.

I agree with the committee decision, but I don't like the deliberations (or maybe the scribe did a poor job reporting the deliberations). Specifically did the committee ask north about his evaluation process leading him to bid 3 spades? The 3 spade call is really out of this world, but let's ask north to justify it, especially since he seems to have been happy to argue about fractions of a second re the tempo. Also, is this a normal balance for EW? I have a hunch that east might have hitched when he passed over 2S. Is it more normal for east to prebalance with a 7-card suit or for west to balance with poor balancing shape and no intermediates? Make the east hand just a little bit worse or make a few clubs into small hearts and that balancing double is an insta-zero.

Seems like if I make an attacking lead and I'm wrong that's probably the end of the defense. If I make a passive lead (DT) and I'm wrong, most of the time they won't have 9 fast tricks and I might be able to recover. There are probably 3 ways to beat this: 1. We can set up diamonds (eg declarer is 3325 and dummy 4423) 2. We can take run a major plus maybe a wash trick somewhere else (HAxxxx or SKxxxx maybe with the HT or SJ). 3. We go passive and declarer cannot generate 9 tricks without creating 5 losers. Diamond lead caters to 1 and 3, and keeps 2 in the game, so that's my choice. Note also that the sexy HJ lead might blow up the hand when partner understandably fails to duck with Axxxx (dummy Qxx, hand Tx or so).

Is it just me or has the pace of play gone from slow to glacial? Watching RIGAL v O'ROURKE last night it was after midnight and there were still at least 12 boards left to play.

I guess you have to pass since if you bid your matchpoint equity is poor compared with pairs that opened 1D standard and got the 2H overcall. I'm not particularly sanguine about our chances of +300 here however.

My gut reaction is to bid 3♠ invitational. I'm not particularly thrilled with this hand for spades if partner has only 4 of them, and I imagine if he has 5 of them he is going to go anyway. The game theory here is pretty complex. It's about 50:50 whether partner has 14 or 15/16. If the latter, the field is getting to game, and 3♠ will get us to game too. If the former, and partner has 5 spades, the field is still getting to game. So facing these hands 3S will produce one of 4♠ facing 5 of them, with the opponents having slightly different information about the closed hand than the field auction 1S-1N; 2m-3S (they know more about his strength, and they know he is balanced, but they don't know his relative minor suit lengths) 4♠ facing 4 decent or better spades and this could be a plus position for us (AK, Q, Q, AJ I'd rather be in spades, AK, K, Q, A I'd rather be in spades, but I can construct honor textures that prefer notrump). 3NT facing 4 (or maybe 5) weak spades inferentially implying good hearts, and this could be a plus position for us (A, KQ, Q, KJ I'd rather be in NT) and I'm happy to deter a spade lead. If partner has 14 and not 5 spades the field is going to bid 1m-? and the opponents will bid hearts identifying the heart problem and pushing us to 3m, I'm happy to play spades and compare with these pairs.

Sorry, you are playing Eastern Scientific on hand 1. On hand 1 you are me, on hand 2 you are Bart Bramley. Also I fixed the spade honors on hand 2. Curt

Since nobody is posting NABC hands, here are a few from day 1. All at matchpoints. 1. None, LHO deals, QJxxxx, Jxxx, xxx, -- P-1H-P-? You play Bergen raises. 2. Opponents problem. Favorable, RHO deals, AQx, x, x, AJ98xxxx P-2C*-P-3C* x-4C-P-4D P-? You play Precision and 3C was invite+ with diamonds. What now? EDIT, sorry wrong spade honors.

FWIW I held the partner hand and I included in my reasoning that the double in the Namyats auction was more likely to be shaped than to be a good balanced hand with 42 or so in the majors for this exact reason.

It's penalty, but I strongly want to go throw up. Partner is going to expect more defense than this for my previous bidding. I really wish I had passed 1♦.

Just guessing, but can GIB have spades and had no way to show it last round because 2S, 3S, and 4S are all something else in the database?

1. Not without the ♦J (which I just put in the responding hand to avoid someone complaining about me assuming 3-2 diamonds, which is much more likely than 2-2 trumps, vide supra). 2. They cash the ♥A and switch to trump, you need 2-2 trumps someone to have 34 in the blacks. 3. I wouldn't include a hand with a void, I would assume partner or the opponents bidding more strongly, or both. The opening hand here is a much better slamming hand than all of those, which need various secondary stuff. There was a thread a while back (don't ask me to find it right now) where we went through some percentages of slam making facing various hands, and most of the time, the various rare bad things add up to a significant drag on your chances of making, single dummy. Against that, you usually have declarer's advantage, but this hand won't be that difficult to defend, since they rate to cash their fast winner at trick 1 and can shift to trumps, or to try to cash a club, or to get out safely, as needed. You also left out that all of these need trumps not 4-0 (9.6% in a vacuum), although I admit with the opponents not contesting the auction very much so far it's likely that the breaks won't be that bad.