rogerclee

AKx xxx AKx K8xx (P) 1N (2C) ? 2C = C+M Give partner 14 points with a 5 card suit and 5332 shape, any balanced hand with 15 points, or any 16 point hand with exactly 4333 shape. Give RHO 5+C, 5+M, and 5+ points. Can you tell me how often we make 6N? Thanks.

Surprised at all the strong votes for bidding, I would just pass, aceless 7 counts are not that good. I am surprised rhm's numbers are so low in terms of us being able to make 4S though when we catch a spade fit, but I guess it is what it is.

The main point isn't that you can go off on trumps 3-2, it's that you are not playing for anything, it's impossible for RHO to have QJxx since they would have broken up the position earlier. At the table Jiang Gu declined to play the heart to create this position, and declarer fell from grace and immediately realized his error (this was in another match). Another small point of interest is that, given this suit combination in a vacuum, RHO should split from QJ8x to cater to their partner having singleton 9 if declarer is known to have exactly 6 hearts headed by the AK (a big stretch), which balances QJxx vs Qxxx/Jxxx a bit.

wank snap got it right but I asked him to delete his answer to give more non-expert (or even expert) players a chance to think about it.

[hv=pc=n&s=sakthakt982da62ca&n=s98432h64dj3c9853]133|200[/hv] You have an uncontested auction to 4H, where north showed an extremely weak hand. You win the SQ lead in hand and play a low diamond to the dummy, RHO wins and exits a club. You play DA and a diamond, and dummy's heart holds. Your play.

I would just man up, it's not like I want to defend 3S at all.

I would essentially always run without 5 clubs, with 5 clubs it would depend on what my hand looked like but I'm guessing I would pass more than half the time.

Fluffy didn't write it but I assumed trick 1 went 2 K 9 J, and declarer led the HJ off dummy afterwards. From west's perspective now if south's hand is something like AJ AQTxx Kxxx Jx (consistent with the bidding/play), a low club is the only prayer, so he was definitely playing for something. But I think there were enough clues that it was just more likely that a spade will work, and change declarer's club to the non-jack and you are just dropping an overtrick all day. I don't see how east could have done anything different, neither the 6 nor 8 in trumps is really readable anyway, though the 8 is obv the normal play, another strike against west getting this wrong. Edit: Oh sorry Frances, I didn't click on the diagram to see the tricks. I agree west lost his mind 100%.

Pass, odds seem at least decent that I can score the HK and a spade ruff, and with no attractive alternative I'm just going to go for it.

Yeah you also make on a layout where either hand has something like QJx QJxx A98x Qx, they cannot profitably ruff either club.

Seems normal to play AK of clubs and plan to ruff with the J. Playing a low club off dummy is bad since when clubs are 4-2, you are going down to a club ruff whenever the hand with 4 clubs also has the DA.

Definitely think 5H is a cuebid and feel so strongly about it that I have no problem doing it undiscussed. But the main thing is, don't pass, both your cards are extremely likely to be working, your doubleton is likely working, and you have 3 card support, I think it's more likely we make 7S than go down in 6.

I would have opened 2C since my spades are so amazing and I should have no rebid problems. If you open 1S you are committed to bidding only 4S over 4H. If they balance 5H it's pretty awkward but I'm inclined to guess to bid 5S even though it feels weird, club card one time pard.

Not hard to see how slam could make but this is just not enough.

Nobody asserted (1), I don't know where you got this idea, but I think you are being dense/stupid on purpose so I will not respond anymore. A lead does not need to have the standard of being "almost impossible to be correct" in order for it to be "very terrible", opening leads are very random, it is very common for a lead that no expert would consider to be even reasonable to be the winning lead in any given scenario.

Sorry you are going to have to explain to me what is going on. It seems like you put a solid amount of work into this, so I want to know if there is something useful I can get out of it. However, they are evidently not playing comparably skilled opponents if some of them are +1 IMP/bd, for example.

How do you show a singleton diamond? 3N any short?

1S (2D) 2N (4-card inv+ raise) 4D 4N 5N 6C (2+ diamond void ; Q ask) 6D ? (yes) South now knows north has a diamond void and 2+Q. What you want to do now maybe depends on what a 6H bid means to you, but if south had to place the contract, 7S is certainly a better guess than 6.

Just to confirm something that must be obvious to you anyway, there's no way this hand is a pass of 3D.

4H at all forms of scoring/vuls, opening 1H would have been my preference though.

I just don't understand how any information can be gleaned from these numbers if they don't account for the difficulty level of your opponents.

Sorry I don't understand what this table is meant to represent or imply, can you please explain?

I actually seriously doubt this, even though I agree a sim would show a diamond lead to be much better than it is.

1. 3D, it's not enough but everything else seems worse to me. IMO x..3D is not stronger than 3D, it just shows a different hand, namely spade tolerance. 2. X planning on bidding hearts is insane. North had a 2S bid, not a 4N bid. South made his normal bid, and north decided that south was an idiot and overruled him. As much as I hate X, it was not really the cause of the disaster, the 6C bid was.

This logic does not follow at all.